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volume 44, issue 1, january 2024
1. title: building a resilient pork supply chain to salmonella spp
authors: wenjuan mu, esther van asselt, coen van wagenberg, h. j van der fels-klerx
abstract: salmonella spp. control in pork supply chains has always been a challenging issue and insufficient control can lead to high social and economic consequences. conventional risk management and risk management approaches and models are not sufficient to address potential food safety shocks caused by salmonella spp., as they mainly focus on assessing measures to reduce salmonella spp. risks instead of developing the resilience capability (e.g., flexibility to adapt to sudden changes in the risks). our study is the first that incorporated the resilience concept to the quantitative modeling of salmonella spp. spread in the pork supply chain. the objective of this study was to explore the resilience performance of the pork supply chain under different food safety shocks caused by salmonella spp., and to investigate the effectiveness of interventions on reducing the impact of these shocks on the resilience performance of the chain. scenario analysis indicated that the effectiveness of the investigated resilience strategies or interventions depended on the risk profile (i.e., default, minimum, maximum level of salmonella spp. contamination) of the pork supply chain. for pork supply chains with minimum and default risk profiles, more attention should be paid to increasing resilience of pigs towards salmonella spp. infection. for supply chains with maximum risk profile, the focus should be on improving the performance of the slaughterhouse, such as careful evisceration, logistic slaughtering. to conclude, enhancing resilience performance of the pork supply chain can contribute to a safe pork supply.
2. title: microbiological water quality and derived health risks from exposure to ornamental water fountains in the city of hannover
authors: estefania carpio vallejo, urda d�ker, franziska meyer, ulrich berding, regina nogueira
abstract: ornamental fountains are attractive urban infrastructures helping cities to cope with global warming, as water sprays have great cooling effects due to evaporative properties; however, exposure to microbiologically impaired water from ornamental fountains during recreational activities may result in adverse health outcomes for the exposed population. this study assesses the microbial water quality of four ornamental water fountains (bl�tterbrunnen, k�rtingbrunnen, klaus�bahlsen�brunnen, and marstallbrunnen) and performs a quantitative microbial risk assessment (qmra) for children using escherichia coli, enterococci, and salmonella to quantify the probability of gastrointestinal illnesses and pseudomonas aeruginosa to quantify the risk of dermal infections. samples were collected fortnightly in two campaigns in 2020 and 2021 and processed to determine bacterial concentrations. data on exposure time were obtained during field observations on the selected fountains; a total of 499 people were observed of which 30% were children. mean bacterial concentrations ranged from 1.6 � 101 to 6.1 � 102 most probable number (mpn)/100 ml for e. coli, 1.2 � 101�1.2 � 103 mpn/100 ml for enterococci, 8.6 � 103�3.1 � 105 cfu/100 ml for salmonella, and 2.5 � 103�3.2 � 104 mpn/100 ml for p. aeruginosa. the results of the qmra study showed that the usepa illness rate of 36 neear-gastrointestinal illnesses/1000 was exceeded for enterococci at the k�rtingbrunnen, klaus�bahlsen�brunnen, and marstallbrunnen fountains and for salmonella and p. aeruginosa at the k�rtingbrunnen fountain, suggesting that exposure to microbiologically contaminated water from ornamental fountains may pose a health risk to children. the scenario analysis shows the importance of keeping low bacterial concentrations in ornamental fountains so that the risk of illness/infection to children does not exceed the usepa illness rate benchmark.
3. title: risk assessment of infectious disease epidemic based on fuzzy bayesian network
authors: lingmei fu, qing yang, xingxing liu, ling he
abstract: the prevention and control of infectious disease epidemic (ide) is an important task for every country and region. risk assessment is significant for the prevention and control of ide. fuzzy bayesian networks (fbn) can capture complex causality and uncertainty. the study developed a novel fbn model, integrating grounded theory, interpretive structural model, and expert weight determination algorithm for the risk assessment of ide. the algorithm is proposed by the authors for expert weighting in fuzzy environment. the proposed fbn model comprehensively takes into account the risk factors and the interaction among them, and quantifies the uncertainty of ide risk assessment, so as to make the assessment results more reliable. taking the epidemic situation of covid 19 in wuhan as a case, the application of the proposed model is illustrated. and sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the important risk factors of ide. moreover, the effectiveness of the model is checked by the three criterion based quantitative validation method including variation connection, consistent effect, and cumulative limitation. results show that the probability of the outbreak of covid 19 in wuhan is as high as 82.26%, which is well matched with the actual situation. "information transfer mechanism," "coordination and cooperation among various personnel," "population flow," and "ability of quarantine" are key risk factors. the constructed model meets the above three criteria. the application potential and effectiveness of the developed fbn model are demonstrated. the study provides decision support for preventing and controlling ide.
4. title: risk assessment of airborne virus transmission in an intensive care unit due to single and sequential coughing
authors: rajendra kusuluri, dnyanesh mirikar, silambarasan palanivel, venugopal arumuru
abstract: the virus causing covid 19 has constantly been mutating into new variants. some of them are more transmissive and resistant to antibiotics. the current research article aims to examine the airborne transmission of the virus expelled by coughing action in a typical intensive care unit. both single and sequential coughing actions have been considered to get closer to practical scenarios. the objective is to assess the effectiveness of air change per hour (ach) on the risk of infection to a healthcare person and how the air change rate influences the dispersion of droplets. such a study is seldom reported and has significant relevance. a total of four cases were analyzed, of which two were of sequential cough. when the ach is changed from 6 to 12, the average particle residence time is reduced by <"7 s. it is found that the risk of infection in the case of sequential cough will be relatively low compared to a single cough if the outlet of the indoor environment is placed above the patient's head. this arrangement also eliminates the requirement of higher ach, which has significance from an energy conservation perspective.
5. title: assessing the option water-saving willingness of irrigation areas considering farmers� risk tolerance
authors: xun cai, liming yao
abstract: water option trading could facilitate water conservation in irrigation areas to achieve optimal allocation of agricultural water resources. however, the risk associated with water saving decisions increases due to the uncertainties of tradeable water and water saving benefits, which makes farmers in the irrigation area with heterogeneous risk tolerances exhibit varied option water saving willingness (owsw) in response to the water option contract. thus, this article provides a novel framework for prior assessing the owsw in the irrigated area that considers farmers' heterogeneous risk tolerance and proposes the optimal contractual water demand to stimulate the owsw. first, a multiobjective optimal allocation model for cropping water is constructed to predict tradeable water, and then risk trust, risk return perception and reference are integrated into water saving return analysis for proposing a willingness calculation model involving forecast information. finally, the influence of heterogeneous risk tolerance on farmers' water saving path choices and the irrigation area's owsw is analyzed with three sets of comparative data from 2014 to 2021. results indicate that the intensity and stability of owsw in water scarce irrigation areas increase as farmers' risk tolerance rises, but the enhancement utility exhibits a diminishing marginal trend. when both prediction accuracy and farmers' risk tolerance are low, contracts with relatively adventurous and differentiated water demands are more likely to stimulate owsw. this study provides insights into activating water options trading and stimulating water conservation in agriculture from a risk management perspective.
6. title: risk communication in multistakeholder engagement: a novel spatial econometric model
authors: shun jia liu, jianping li, dengsheng wu, xiaoqian zhu, xin long xu
abstract: existing studies on the environmental kuznets curve (ekc) neglect the inverse effect of pollution transfer from environmental regulation interactions on pollution reduction from a risk analysis perspective. based on the regional differentiated attitudes on the environmental regulation reached in risk communication by the risk awareness biases of multiple interest groups, this article clarifies the causality between risk communication and risk transfer based on multistakeholder engagement processes; furthermore, the article incorporates the simultaneous action of the technological innovation effect and pollution risk transfer effect to construct a spatial environmental hyperbolic model with a bidirectional correlation between pollution emissions and economic growth in different regions. to verify our model, we select the pollution from agricultural watersheds in china as a sample to examine the two inverse effects. the results demonstrate that (1) agricultural watershed pollution and economic growth show an inverted u shaped relation and a u shaped relation in the local region and adjacent regions, respectively; (2) the pollution reduction assessment of the classical ekc model can be largely attributed to pollution risk transfer behavior; and (3) the turning point of the u shaped curve appears earlier than that of the inverted u shaped curve in the spatial hyperbola model. the findings suggest that stakeholders should consider the risk awareness bias caused by the imbalance of regional economic development and the scenarios that provide a "haven" for pollution risk transfer. moreover, our study expands the theoretical connotation of the classical ekc hypothesis and is more suitable for pollution reduction scenarios in developing countries.
7. title: risk management for second-hand clothing imports in least developed countries: legislations and perception of public-sector corruption
authors: shu guo, tsan-ming choi
abstract: the second hand clothing imports are very popular in the least developed countries (ldcs). the social health risk (shr) associated with second hand clothing products and the lack of relevant legislations in ldcs, however, bring substantial challenges. this article is therefore developed to explore the sterilization legislation design for second hand clothing supply chains in ldcs. to address ldcs' different import requirements of fumigation, both the extended exporter responsibility (eer) legislation scheme and the extended importer responsibility (eir) legislation scheme are considered. we also examine whether the perception of public sector corruption in ldcs may affect the performance of sterilization legislation schemes. we compare the performance of sterilization legislation schemes under different public sector corruption cases, different sterilization legislation structures, as well as market competition. interestingly, our analyses show that the eer and eir legislation schemes can achieve the same performance under a per unit shr duty, no matter whether there is public sector corruption or not. however, these two legislation schemes perform differently under the lump sum shr duty. besides, with the presence of the public sector corruption perception, the prospect of financial benefits from bribing the regulatory agency can induce the firm to choose a higher optimal sterilization level when the bribe is sufficiently small. these implications complement the extant knowledge on risk management of second hand clothing in ldcs, and provide an important guidance regarding the design of sterilization legislations on second hand clothing imports.
8. title: political ideology shapes risk and benefit judgments of covid-19 vaccines
authors: enrico rubaltelli, stephan dickert, david m. markowitz, paul slovic
abstract: in april 2021, the use of the johnson & johnson covid 19 vaccine was paused to investigate whether it had caused serious blood clots to a small number of women (six out of 6.8 million americans who had been administered that vaccine). as these events were unfolding, we surveyed a sample of americans (n = 625) to assess their reactions to this news, whether they supported the pausing of the vaccine, and potential psychological factors underlying their decision. in addition, we employed automated text analyses as a supporting method to more classical quantitative measures. results showed that political ideology influenced the support for the pausing of the vaccine; liberals were more likely to oppose it than conservatives. in addition, the effect of political ideology was mediated by the difference between perceived benefit and risk and the language style used to produce reasons in support (or against) the decision to pause the vaccine. liberals perceived the benefit of vaccines higher than the risk, used a more analytic language style when stating their reasons, and had a more positive attitude toward the vaccine. we discuss the implications of our findings considering vaccine hesitancy and risk perception during the covid 19 pandemic.
9. title: insights into the complementarity of natural disaster insurance purchases and risk reduction behavior
authors: samuel rufat, peter j. robinson, wouter j. w. botzen
abstract: while flooding is the costliest natural disaster risk, public sector investments provide incomplete protection. moreover, individuals are in general reluctant to voluntarily invest in measures which limit damage costs from natural disasters. the moral hazard hypothesis argues that insured individuals take fewer other preparedness measures based on their assumption that their losses will be covered anyway. conversely, the advantageous selection hypothesis argues that individuals view insurance and other risk reduction measures as complements. this study offers a comprehensive assessment of factors related to the separate uptake of natural disaster insurance and the flood proofing of homes as well as why people may take both of these measures together. we use data from a survey conducted in paris, france, in 2018, after several flood events, for a representative sample of 2976 residents facing different levels of flood risk. we perform both main effects regressions and interaction analyses to reveal that home adaptation to flooding is positively associated with comprehensive insurance coverage, which includes financial protection against natural disasters. furthermore, actual and perceived risks, as well as awareness of official information on flood risk, are found to explain some of the relationship between home adaptation and comprehensive insurance purchase. we suggest several recommendations to policymakers based on these insights which aim to address insurance coverage gaps and the failure to take disaster risk reduction measures. in particular, groups in socially vulnerable situations may benefit from subsidized insurance, low interest loans, and decision aids to implement costly adaptation measures.
10. title: assessing the economic impacts of a perfect storm of extreme weather, pandemic control, and export restrictions: a methodological construct
authors: yixin hu, daoping wang, jingwen huo, vicky chemutai, paul brenton, lili yang, dabo guan
abstract: this article investigates the economic impacts of a multi disaster mix comprising extreme weather, such as flooding, pandemic control, and export restrictions, dubbed a "perfect storm." we develop a compound hazard impact model that improves on the ario model by considering the economic interplay between different types of hazardous events. the model considers simultaneously cross regional substitution and production specialization, which can influence the resilience of the economy to multiple shocks. we build scenarios to investigate economic impacts when a flood and a pandemic lockdown collide and how these are affected by the timing, duration, and intensity/strictness of each shock. in addition, we examine how export restrictions during a pandemic impact the economic losses and recovery, especially when there is the specialization of production of key sectors. the results suggest that an immediate, stricter but shorter pandemic control policy would help to reduce the economic costs inflicted by a perfect storm, and regional or global cooperation is needed to address the spillover effects of such compound events, especially in the context of the risks from deglobalization.
11. title: incorporating learning into direct policy search for flood risk management
authors: jingya wang, david r. johnson
abstract: direct policy search (dps) is a method for identifying optimal policies (i.e., rules) for managing a system in response to changing conditions. in this article, we introduce a new adaptive way to incorporate learning into dps. the standard dps approach identifies "robust" policies by optimizing their average performance over a large ensemble of future states of the world (sow). our approach exploits information gained over time, updating prior beliefs about the kind of sow being experienced. we first run the standard dps approach multiple times, but with varying sets of weights applied to the sows when calculating average performance. adaptive "metapolicies" then further improve performance by specifying how control of the system should switch between policies identified using different weight sets, depending on our updated beliefs about the relative likelihood of being in certain sows. we outline the general method and illustrate it using a case study of efficient dike heightening that simultaneously minimizes protection system costs and flood damage resulting from rising sea levels and storm surge. the solutions identified by our adaptive algorithm dominate the standard dps on these two objectives, with an average marginal damage reduction of 35.1% for policies with similar costs; improvements are largest in sows with relatively lower sea level rise. we also evaluate how performance varies under different ways of implementing the algorithm, such as changing the frequency with which beliefs are updated.
12. title: assessing the economic ripple effect of flood disasters in light of the recovery process: insights from an agent-based model
authors: xinyu jiang, ruiying jia, lijiao yang
abstract:
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�gdmw�gd)w�gd�s�to assess the economic ripple effect, this study integrates agent based modeling (abm) with a multiregional input output (mrio) table to develop an assessment model that considers capacity recovery process. the intermediate and final demands in the mrio table are used to describe the agents' interdependence. survival analysis is used to construct capacity rate curves. by defining the first and second order ripple effects, abm is used to capture the ripple process in days. to conduct a case study, the service and retail sectors in enshi in hubei, china, are selected as disaster affected sectors (they were severely affected by the july 17, 2020 flood disaster). the main findings are as follows: (1) with the first order ripple effect, the losses caused by service and retail are concentrated within enshi. enshi's final demand, construction, and raw materials manufacturing sectors as well as wuhan's construction sector are seriously affected. (2) with the second order ripple effect, the losses caused by the service and retail sectors expand, forming a prominent industrial ripple chain: "service (retail) raw materials manufacturing construction." (3) the direct and indirect losses caused by the service sector are more significant than those caused by the retail sector. however, the loss ratio of the service sector is smaller than that of the retail sector because of its sound industrial structure and strong resilience. hence, the indirect losses caused by different sectors are not entirely determined by their direct losses; instead, they are also related to the degree of perfection of the structures of different sectors.
13. title: revealing indirect risks in complex socioeconomic systems: a highly detailed multi-model analysis of flood events in austria
authors: gabriel bachner, nina knittel, sebastian poledna, stefan hochrainer-stigler, karina reiter
abstract: cascading risks that can spread through complex systems have recently gained attention. as it is crucial for decision makers to put figures on such risks and their interactions, models that explicitly capture such interactions in a realistic manner are needed. climate related hazards often cascade through different systems, from physical to economic and social systems, causing direct but also indirect risks and losses. despite their growing importance in the light of ongoing climate change and increasing global connections, such indirect risks are not well understood. applying two fundamentally different economic models a computable general equilibrium model and an agent based model we reveal indirect risks of flood events. the models are fed with sector specific capital stock damages, which constitutes a major methodological improvement. we apply these models for austria, a highly flood exposed country with strong economic linkages. a key finding is that flood damages pose very different indirect risks to different sectors and household groups (distributional effects) in the short and long term. our results imply that risk management should focus on specific societal subgroups and sectors. we provide a simple metric for indirect risk, showing how direct and indirect losses are related. this can provide new ways forward in risk management, for example, focusing on interconnectedness of sectors and agents within different risk layers of indirect risk. although we offer highly relevant leverage points for indirect risk management in austria, the methodology of analyzing indirect risks can be transferred to other regions.
14. title: a copula-based method of risk prediction for autonomous underwater gliders in dynamic environments
authors: xi chen, neil bose, mario brito, faisal khan, ting zou
abstract: autonomous underwater gliders (augs) are effective platforms for oceanic research and environmental monitoring. however, complex underwater environments with uncertainties could pose the risk of vehicle loss during their missions. it is therefore essential to conduct risk prediction to assist decision making for safer operations. the main limitation of current studies for augs is the lack of a tailored method for risk analysis considering both dynamic environments and potential functional failures of the vehicle. hence, this study proposed a copula based approach for evaluating the risk of aug loss in dynamic underwater environments. the developed copula bayesian network (cbn) integrated copula functions into a traditional bayesian belief network (bbn), aiming to handle nonlinear dependencies among environmental variables and inherent technical failures. specifically, potential risk factors with causal effects were captured using the bbn. a gaussian copula was then employed to measure correlated dependencies among identified risk factors. furthermore, the dependence analysis and cbn inference were performed to assess the risk level of vehicle loss given various environmental observations. the effectiveness of the proposed method was demonstrated in a case study, which considered deploying a slocum g1 glider in a real water region. risk mitigation measures were provided based on key findings. this study potentially contributes a tailored tool of risk prediction for augs in dynamic environments, which can enhance the safety performance of augs and assist in risk mitigation for decision makers.
15. title: a classification system for characterizing the integrity and quality of evidence in risk studies
authors: shital thekdi, terje aven
abstract: risk management requires a balance between knowledge and values. knowledge consists of justified beliefs and evidence, with evidence including data, assumptions, and models. while quality and integrity of evidence are valued in the sciences, risk science involves uncertainty, which suggests that evidence can be incomplete or imperfect. the use of inappropriate evidence can invalidate risk studies and contribute to misinformation and poor risk management decisions. additionally, the interpretation of quality and integrity of evidence may vary by the risk study mission, decision maker values, and stakeholder needs. while risk science has developed standards for risk studies, there remains a lack of clarity for how to demonstrate quality and integrity of evidence, recognizing that evidence can be presented in many formats (e.g., data, ideas, and theories), be leveraged at various stages of a risk study (e.g., hypotheses, analyses, and communication), and involve differing expectations across stakeholders. this study develops and presents a classification system to evaluate quality and integrity of evidence that is based on current risk science guidance, best practices from non risk disciplines, and lessons learned from recent risk events. the classification system is demonstrated on a cyber security application. this study will be of interest to risk researchers, risk professionals, and data analysts.
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