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��ࡱ�>�� u �r��]bjbj�n�n2~��a��a�t ��""��8�le� pl��o�o�o�o�o�o�o$�q�bt<�o-��o��4�o��o��o��u/ ��gso�o0 p~tw^~t�0~t�cl0��o�o�� p��~t��"qs: risk analysis volume 43, issue 5, may 2023 1. title: �modest doubt is called the beacon of the wise��incorporating uncertainty in risk analysis from shakespeare to today authors: felicia wu, benjamin d. trump abstract: �modest doubt is call'd the beacon of the wise.��william shakespeare, troilus and cressida. although the character hector warns his fellow trojans with this line not to engage in war against the greeks, shakespeare's works are replete with characters who do not incorporate modest doubt, or any consideration of uncertainty, in their risk decisions. perhaps shakespeare was simply a keen observer of human nature. although risk science has developed tremendously over the last five decades (and scientific inquiry over five centuries), the human mind still frequently defaults to conviction about certain beliefs, absent sufficient scientific evidence�which has effects not just on individual lives, but on policy decisions that affect many. this perspective provides background on the shakespearean quote in its literary and historical context. then, as this quote is the theme of the 2023 society for risk analysis annual meeting, we describe how �modest doubt��incorporating the notion of uncertainty into risk analysis for individual and policy decisions�is still the �beacon of the wise� today. 2. title: pandemic refuges: lessons from 2 years of covid-19 authors: seth d. baum, vanessa m. adams abstract: this paper relates evidence from the covid-19 pandemic to the concept of pandemic refuges, as developed in literature on global catastrophic risk. in this literature, a refuge is a place or facility designed to keep a portion of the population alive during extreme global catastrophes. covid-19 is not the most extreme pandemic scenario, but it is nonetheless a very severe global event, and it therefore provides an important source of evidence. through the first 2 years of the covid-19 pandemic, several political jurisdictions have achieved low spread of covid-19 via isolation from the rest of the world and can therefore classify as pandemic refuges. their suppression and elimination of covid-19 demonstrates the viability of pandemic refuges as a risk management measure. whereas prior research emphasizes island nations as pandemic refuges, this paper uses case studies of china and western australia to show that other types of jurisdictions can also successfully function as pandemic refuges. the paper also refines the concept of pandemic refuges and discusses implications for future pandemics. 3. title: externalities in the wildland�urban interface: private decisions, collective action, and results from wildfire simulation models for california authors: howard kunreuther, artem demidov, mark pauly, matija turcic, michael wilson abstract: property damage from wildfires occurs from spread into built-up areas, the wildland�urban interface. fire spread occurs as embers from one burning structure ignite neighboring ones�but mitigation reduces the chances that fire spreads. in this study, we use a simulation model with realistic parameters for a neighborhood in california to illustrate patterns of marginal benefit from mitigation. we extend existing models of fire spread in two novel ways. we show how to describe the no-regulation equilibrium and social optimal levels of mitigation by incorporating data on a key factor, the distribution of house values in the community. we incorporate insurance in the model and show that it improves homeowner decision-making and insurance premium regulation. the fire spread simulations show that under plausible parameter values, there is a pattern in which mitigation's marginal benefit is low at low levels of community mitigation, rises to a maximum, and then falls quickly to a low level. we argue that the maximum marginal benefit is a guide to achieving optimal mitigation in a community. owner mitigation decisions will depend on the distribution of house values in the neighborhood and other factors. in an illustration, we use the distribution of house values in a california community to illustrate the mitigation owners will choose under independent (nash) investment decisions, and the efficiency-improving actions involving regulations or insurance premium subsidies that can lead to the social optimum. 4. title: quantitative risk assessment of rabies being introduced into mainland france through worldwide noncommercial dog and cat movements authors: guillaume crozet, julie rivi�re, elisa rapenne, florence cliquet, emmanuelle robardet, barbara dufour abstract: france has been rabies-free among nonflying mammals since 2001. despite this status, the rabies virus has been introduced several times through noncommercial pet movements, posing a threat of infection by this 100%-lethal zoonosis among local animal and human populations. to quantify the risk of rabies being introduced through worldwide noncommercial dog and cat movements, we performed a quantitative risk assessment using stochastic scenario tree modeling. the mean annual probability of at least one rabies introduction incident was 0.35 (median: 0.24, 90% prediction interval (pi) [0.04; 0.98]) and the mean annual number of rabies-infected pets introduced through pet movements was 0.96 (median: 0.27, 90% pi [0.04; 3.88]). these results highlight a nonnegligible, even high risk due to the associated consequences of such events. in alternative scenario testing, preventive anti-rabies vaccination proved to be an effective measure since removing the vaccination requirement led to a > 15-fold increase in risk. the serological testing requirement had less of an effect (approximately two-fold increase when removed) and the posttest waiting period to ensure that antibodies were not linked to an infection had a negligible effect. any change in pet owner compliance, especially regarding vaccination, could have a major impact on the risk. this study also shows that reinforced border control staff training could be more effective in reducing risk than more frequent checks. these results provide quantitative data for assessing the probability of the rabies virus entering france, and could help policymakers decrease this risk in rabies-free areas. 5. title: producing ratio measures of effect with quantitative microbial risk assessment authors: drew capone, aaron bivins, joe brown abstract: estimating the risk of infections or other outcomes incident to pathogen exposure is a primary goal of quantitative microbial risk assessment (qmra). such estimates are useful to predict population-level risks, to evaluate exposures based on normative or tolerable risk guidelines, and to interpret the likely public health relevance of microbial measurements in environmental media. to evaluate alternative control measures (interventions), ratio estimates of effect (e.g., odds and risk ratios) are needed that are more broadly interpretable in the health sciences and consistent with convention in epidemiology. in this paper, we propose a general method for estimating widely used ratio measures of effect derived from stochastic qmra approaches, including the generation of appropriate confidence intervals. such qmra-derived ratios can be used as a basis for evaluating interventions via hypothesis testing and for inclusion in systematic reviews and meta-analyses in a form consistent with risk estimation approaches commonly used in epidemiology. 6. title: danger control and fear control during public health emergencies: considering the roles of fear and hope in the eppm across different levels of trust authors: liang chen, minyi chen abstract: public health emergencies pose considerable threats to global health and safety. the control of these emergencies requires the efforts of healthcare professionals and calls for the public to take protective actions. the present study not only puts fear back in the extended parallel process model (eppm) but also considers another similarly productive emotion: hope. we examined the mechanisms behind the effects of four cognitive perceptions on protective actions (i.e., danger control) and information avoidance (i.e., fear control). a national online survey was conducted with 1676 participants during the outbreak of covid-19 in china from february 1 to 29, 2020. the results revealed that perceived severity and susceptibility could lead to fear, positively affecting protective actions. on the other hand, perceived response efficacy and self-efficacy induced hope, which was positively associated with protective actions but negatively associated with information avoidance. furthermore, the mechanisms behind the relationships among cognitions, emotions, and behaviors varied across levels of trust in healthcare systems. 7. title: communicating uncertainty in national security intelligence: expert and nonexpert interpretations of and preferences for verbal and numeric formats authors: daniel irwin, david r. mandel abstract: organizations in several domains including national security intelligence communicate judgments under uncertainty using verbal probabilities (e.g., likely) instead of numeric probabilities (e.g., 75% chance), despite research indicating that the former have variable meanings across individuals. in the intelligence domain, uncertainty is also communicated using terms such as low, moderate, or high to describe the analyst's confidence level. however, little research has examined how intelligence professionals interpret these terms and whether they prefer them to numeric uncertainty quantifiers. in two experiments (n = 481 and 624, respectively), uncertainty communication preferences of expert (n = 41 intelligence analysts in experiment 1) and nonexpert intelligence consumers were elicited. we examined which format participants judged to be more informative and simpler to process. we further tested whether participants treated verbal probability and confidence terms as independent constructs and whether participants provided coherent numeric probability translations of verbal probabilities. results showed that although most nonexperts favored the numeric format, experts were about equally split, and most participants in both samples regarded the numeric format as more informative. experts and nonexperts consistently conflated probability and confidence. for instance, confidence intervals inferred from verbal confidence terms had a greater effect on the location of the estimate than the width of the estimate, contrary to normative expectation. approximately one-fourth of experts and over one-half of nonexperts provided incoherent numeric probability translations for the terms likely and unlikely when the elicitation of best estimates and lower and upper bounds were briefly spaced by intervening tasks. 8. title: reliability analysis of man�machine systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping with genetic tuning authors: alexander rotshtein, denis katelnikov, ludmila pustylnik, brian a. polin abstract: this article offers a method for analyzing the reliability of a man�machine system (mms) and ranking of influencing factors based on a fuzzy cognitive map (fcm). the ranking of influencing factors is analogous to the ranking of system elements the probabilistic theory of reliability. to approximate the dependence of �influencing factors�reliability,� the relationship of variable increments is used, which ensures the sensitivity of the reliability level to variations in the levels of influencing factors. the novelty of the method lies in the fact that the expert values of the weights of the fcm graph edges (arcs) are adjusted based on the results of observations using a genetic algorithm. the algorithm's chromosomes are generated from the intervals of acceptable values of edge weights, and the selection criterion is the sum of squares of deviations of the reliability simulation results from observations. the method is illustrated by the example of a multifactor analysis of the reliability of the �driver�car�road� system. it is shown that the fcm adjustment reduces the discrepancy between the reliability forecast and observations almost in half. possible applications of the method can be complex systems with vaguely defined structures whose reliability depends very much on interrelated factors measured expertly. 9. title: improving the resilience of power grids against typhoons with data-driven spatial distributionally robust optimization authors: zhaoyuan yin, chao fang, haoxiang yang, yiping fang, min xie abstract: in recent years, the increased frequency of natural hazards has led to more disruptions in power grids, potentially causing severe infrastructural damages and cascading failures. therefore, it is important that the power system resilience be improved by implementing new technology and utilizing optimization methods. this paper proposes a data-driven spatial distributionally robust optimization (ds-dro) model to provide an optimal plan to install and dispatch distributed energy resources (ders) against the uncertain impact of natural hazards such as typhoons. we adopt an accurate spatial model to evaluate the failure probability with regard to system components based on wind speed. we construct a moment-based ambiguity set of the failure distribution based on historical typhoon data. a two-stage ds-dro model is then formulated to obtain an optimal resilience enhancement strategy. we employ the combination of dual reformulation and a column-and-constraints generation algorithm, and showcase the effectiveness of the proposed approach with a modified ieee 13-node reliability test system projected in the hong kong region. 10. title: concise or comprehensive? predictors of impact assessment choices for electric transmission line projects authors: ryan p. scott, nicola ulibarri, tyler a. scott abstract: environmental impact assessment (eia) procedures required in the united states and many other countries are often highlighted as a major hindrance to timely and efficient deployment of critical infrastructure projects. under the u.s. national environmental policy act, a more extensive environmental impact statement (eis) review can take several more years and cost much more than a succinct environmental assessment (ea). this not only affects the project in question, but also likely informs how�or whether�additional projects are pursued. thus, understanding key predictors of the ea versus eis choice sheds light on supply-side considerations affecting infrastructure deficits. using the case of nepa reviews conducted for 244 transmission line projects between 2005 and 2018 by two u.s. federal agencies in the western united states, the bureau of land management (blm) and department of energy (doe), this addresses the following question: what project features most predict whether ea or an eis is used to assess a transmission line project? drawing upon nepa assessment guidance and agency nepa records, we use a regression classification tree to analyze how protocols and project attributes relate to assessment choice. the result is essentially a null finding: transmission line length is by far the most important predictor of whether a project receives an extensive eis or a shorter ea, with little predictive value provided by other attributes. while absolute project size undoubtedly influences impacts, the lack of further differentiation in what predicts use of eiss versus eas suggests assessment does not simply respond to project details but also shapes proposal and design choices beforehand. 11. title: attention to climate change and downside risk: evidence from china authors: xing chen, xian chen, longhao xu, fenghua wen abstract: we explore the role of public climate attention, captured by the baidu search volume index, in the downside risk. using 45 keywords from five perspectives related to climate change, we construct a public climate attention index in china. we find a positive and significant relationship between climate attention and downside risk at the market-level and firm-level. moreover, the risk-increase effect of climate attention becomes more prominent for state-owned and high-carbon-emission firms. further analysis shows that excellent sustainable performance can moderate the adverse effect of rising climate attention, while the major climate disasters exacerbate the effect. overall, our findings shed additional light on the important role of collective climate beliefs in corporate risk management and investor decision-making. 12. title: role of land-cover and wui types on spatio-temporal dynamics of fires in the french mediterranean area authors: fran�ois chappaz, anne ganteaume abstract: this work aims at assessing, in the french mediterranean area, the spatio-temporal trends of fires, including their causes, at fine scale (communities), comparing different periods between 1993 and 2017. these trends were compared to those of land-cover and wildland-urban interface (wui) which were coupled with a spatial analysis of the ignitions in order to highlight the main drivers and preferential areas. fire density was highly variable among communities, hotspots being located mostly close to big cities but spatially varying in time in contrast to fire occurrence and burned area. a decrease in the unknown cause proportion and a variation of the cause frequency were highlighted among periods, criminal fires being the most frequent and deleterious, especially before 2009, as well as those due to negligence during private activities, mostly after 2009. land cover classes significantly varied among periods, artificialized and natural areas presenting a reversed trend compared with agricultural areas. natural areas were the most affected by ignitions (60%), regardless of the period; this trend is slowly decreasing. wui represented <"30% of the study area, the different types varying spatially (denser clustered types mostly located in the south-east) and showed an increase over time, especially for both clustered types but with high variability among communities. half of the ignitions occurred in wui, with �very dense clustered� and �scattered� types being the most affected, especially in 2009. better understanding the spatio-temporal evolution of fires and of their causes should allow refining the fire policies in terms of awareness raising, firefighting means, and land management. 13. title: assessing social vulnerability and identifying spatial hotspots of flood risk to inform socially just flood management policy authors: liton chakraborty, jason thistlethwaite, daniel scott, daniel henstra, andrea minano, horatiu rus abstract: this study presents the first nationwide spatial assessment of flood risk to identify social vulnerability and flood exposure hotspots that support policies aimed at protecting high-risk populations and geographical regions of canada. the study used a national-scale flood hazard dataset (pluvial, fluvial, and coastal) to estimate a 1-in-100-year flood exposure of all residential properties across 5721 census tracts. residential flood exposure data were spatially integrated with a census-based multidimensional social vulnerability index (sovi) that included demographic, racial/ethnic, and socioeconomic indicators influencing vulnerability. using bivariate local indicators of spatial association (bilisa) cluster maps, the study identified geographic concentration of flood risk hotspots where high vulnerability coincided with high flood exposure. the results revealed considerable spatial variations in tract-level social vulnerability and flood exposure. flood risk hotspots belonged to 410 census tracts, 21 census metropolitan areas, and eight provinces comprising about 1.7 million of the total population and 51% of half-a-million residential properties in canada. results identify populations and the geographic regions near the core and dense urban areas predominantly occupying those hotspots. recognizing priority locations is critically important for government interventions and risk mitigation initiatives considering socio-physical aspects of vulnerability to flooding. findings reinforce a better understanding of geographic flood-disadvantaged neighborhoods across canada, where interventions are required to target preparedness, response, and recovery resources that foster socially just flood management strategies. 14. title: evaluation of error across natural gas pipeline incidents authors: darien alexander williams, amy k. glasmeier abstract: this paper demonstrates how qualitative analysis can be a novel means of investigating theories of error and causation in natural gas pipeline incidents. qualitative analysis offers unique opportunities to understand process, interactions, and the role of context in identifying active error and latent conditions in incident causation. through the coding of text from 24 onshore natural gas pipeline incident reports on leaks and explosions in the united states and canada, our findings reveal a proportion of active and latent errors consistent with other hazardous infrastructure contexts (roughly 3:1 latent-active ratio across 817 coded errors). these findings underscore the robustness of extant error theory and support the argument for documenting multiple, connected causes of disaster in aggregate. conclusions highlight the utility of in-depth case analyses and critique present pipeline incident database aggregation. our interpretation provides a means to convey complex causation in aggregate form thus enabling more nuanced future qualitative and qualitative analyses. 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