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��ࡱ�>�� u �r��bjbj�n�n2��a��a� ��::��8��,��sl��s s s s s s s$hu��w<-si�-s��4�s��j��s�s��@͔f��g(��r�s0�s�:x�f:x��/:x�co��-s-s��s��:x:q�: global environmental change volume 74, issue 3, may 2022 1. title: ethnic conflict as a risk amplifier for resurgent p. vivax malaria in temperate zones: a case study from the caucasus region authors: katherine hirschfeld, kirsten de beurs, brad p. brayfield, ani melkonyan abstract: one of the most protracted post-soviet conflicts of the 1990s was a territorial dispute between armenia and azerbaijan over the contested karabakh region. years of ethnic violence led to the displacement of nearly a million refugees, as well as a public health crisis that included epidemics of malaria, diphtheria and other preventable diseases. malaria is not usually considered a health risk in temperate climates, but seasonal epidemics were widespread throughout the caucasus in the early decades of the twentieth century. this paper combines qualitative historical research with geospatial analysis to explore how endemic malaria was controlled during the soviet era, and how ethnic conflict reconfigured local ecologies to facilitate the re-emergence of p. vivax after the soviet collapse in the 1990s. this research reveals that ethnic conflicts have specific qualities that increase risks of infectious and vector borne disease outbreaks, even in places that have successfully achieved a modern health and mortality profile. the risk amplifiers of ethnic conflicts include 1) the creation of contested spaces controlled by separatists that are outside of any national public health surveillance system; 2) mass population movements and refugee outflows due to ethnic violence; and 3) changes in land use that expand potential mosquito breeding sites throughout the conflict zone. continued hostilities between armenia and azerbaijan, combined with the repopulation of key vector species (specifically an. sacharovi) lead us to conclude that populations in the caucasus remain vulnerable to resurgent outbreaks of ethno-nationalist violence as well as the return of seasonal malaria, even after decades of successful control. 2. title: climate skepticism decreases when the planet gets hotter and conservative support wanes authors: matthew j. hornsey, cassandra m. chapman, jacquelyn e. humphrey abstract: identifying historical patterns of fluctuation in climate change skepticism guides researchers, policy makers, and science communicators in efforts to catalyze change in the future. we analyzed data from 25 nationally representative polls collected in australia from 2009 to 2019 (n = 20,655). although it remains concerningly high, climate skepticism trended down in that 10-year period, particularly among conservatives. multilevel analyses identified two variables that stood out as being relevant in explaining that trajectory. first, climate change skepticism was positively associated with support for conservative political parties in national polls. second, climate change skepticism was negatively associated with the annual global temperatures the previous year. there was little evidence that climate change beliefs were associated with economic variables or with seasonal variations in temperature. furthermore, there was only weak evidence that climate change beliefs were associated with national temperatures. this suggests that global temperatures in the previous year are impactful because of their informational value (as a communication heuristic for the urgency and immediacy of climate change) more so than for their experiential value (in the sense of people actually experiencing warmer weather). importantly, the effect of previous global temperature was particularly pronounced among those with the strongest levels of skepticism: political conservatives. this suggests that rising global annual temperatures have the power to update beliefs among those most in need of converting to the climate cause. 3. title: globalized supply chains: emergent telecouplings in mexico�s beef economy and environmental leakages authors: yankuic galvan-miyoshi, cynthia simmons, robert walker, gilberto aranda osorio, ... michael waylen abstract: this article analyzes how trade liberalization in mexico, particularly following the north american free trade agreement (nafta), has transformed that nation�s cattle economy into a feedlot system manifesting multiple telecouplings and based on the transnational provision of inputs. a conceptual model is presented that suggests how environmental effects involving land use and ghg emissions emerge from changes in the beef supply chain. the article then presents an empirical analysis establishing that the production of corn and beef has intensified in the wake of nafta, and that deforestation rates have declined over the same period. evidence is also presented showing that this has not precipitated a land sparing effect, given the leakage of deforestation into central america, which supplies mexican feedlots with 36 % of their source materials. the article calculates associated ghg emissions and establishes that enteric fermentation dominates deforestation as a source, and that <"14% of ghgs produced by the post-nafta mexican supply chain are emitted in central america. this raises accounting questions for signatories to the paris climate treaty, given commitments are nation-based. 4. title: biophysical indicators and indigenous and local knowledge reveal climatic and ecological shifts with implications for arctic char fisheries authors: marianne falardeau, elena m. bennett, brent else, aaron fisk, ... jean-s�bastien moore abstract: managing arctic marine resources to be resilient to environmental changes requires knowledge of how climate change is affecting marine food webs and fisheries. changes to fishery resources will have major implications for coastal indigenous communities whose livelihoods, health, and cultures are strongly connected to fisheries. understanding these broad social-ecological changes requires a transdisciplinary approach bringing together contrasting and complementary disciplines and ways of knowing. here, we examine climatic proxies, ecological, and fishery indicators (stable isotopes, fish condition, and lipid content), and interviews with inuit fishers to assess how marine ecosystem changes have influenced arctic char (salvelinus alpinus) ecology and fisheries over a 30-year time period (1987�2016) in the kitikmeot region of the canadian arctic. inuit fishers reported several observations of environmental changes, including longer ice-free seasons, warmer ocean temperatures, and the arrival of new marine species. biophysical data revealed important changes toward earlier dates of ice breakup (>12 days in some areas) and a shift in isotopic niche reflecting a changing arctic char diet, with increased contribution of pelagic carbon and higher trophic level prey. fish condition was improved in years with earlier ice breakup, as observed by both inuit fishers and biophysical indicators, while lipid content increased through time, suggesting that longer ice-free seasons may have a positive effect on arctic char quality as reflected by both fish condition and lipid content. long-term impacts of continuing climate change, however, such as the northward expansion of boreal species and increasing ocean temperatures, could have negative effects on fisheries (e.g., physiological impairment in fish if temperatures exceed their thermal range). continuous community-based monitoring that directly informs fisheries management could help communities and managers adaptively, and sustainably, manage in the face of multiple interacting changes in arctic marine systems. 5. title: fairness critically conditions the carbon budget allocation across countries authors: keith williges, lukas h. meyer, karl w. steininger, gottfried kirchengast abstract: countries� nationally determined contributions to mitigate global warming translate to claims of country specific shares of the remaining carbon budget. the remaining global budget is limited by the aim of staying well below 2 �c, however. here we show how fairness concerns quantitatively condition the allocation of this global carbon budget across countries. minimal fairness requirements include securing basic needs, attributing historical responsibility for past emissions, accounting for benefits from past emissions, and not exceeding countries� societally feasible emission reduction rate. the argument in favor of taking into account these fairness concerns reflects a critique of both simple equality- and sovereignty-principled reduction approaches, the former modelled here as the equal-per-capita distribution from now on, the latter as prolonging the inequality of the status-quo levels of emissions into the transformation period (considered a form of �grandfathering�). we find the option most in line with fairness concerns to be a four-fold qualified version of the equal-per-capita approach that incorporates a limited form of grandfathering. 6. title: subnational institutions and power of landholders drive illegal deforestation in a major commodity production frontier authors: daniel blum, sebasti�n aguiar, zhanli sun, daniel m�ller, ... mat�as mastrangelo abstract: deforestation is a main threat to the biosphere due to its contribution to biodiversity loss, carbon emissions, and land degradation. most deforestation is illegal and continues unabated, representing around half of the total deforestation in the tropics and subtropics. quantifying illegal deforestation is challenging, let alone assessing the social and institutional processes underlying its occurrence. we tackle this challenge by quantifying the relative influence of individual (i.e., landholders� power, landholding size) and contextual (i.e., subnational institutions, agricultural suitability) factors on the type and size of illegal deforestation in the argentine dry chaco, a major commodity production frontier and global deforestation hotspot. we build a bayesian network fed with data of 244 illegal deforestation events, obtained from journalistic articles, grey literature, key informant interviews, and geospatial analyses. the results reveal that more powerful landholders were associated with larger illegal deforestation events. policy simulations suggest that higher concentration of land in the hands of powerful landholders and more flexible subnational forest regulations would escalate illegal deforestation. this points to the need for a smart policy mix that integrates across economic, agricultural, and environmental sectors to halt illegal deforestation at commodity production frontiers. a land tenure reform can facilitate forest protection, while incentives to land-use diversification and the criminal prosecution of illegal deforestation are critical to shift landholder behavior towards more balanced production and conservation outcomes. 7. title: drivers of successful common-pool resource management: a conjoint experiment on groundwater management in brazil authors: alicia cooperman, alexandra r. mclarty, brigitte seim abstract: carefully designed common-pool resource (cpr) management systems can improve water security, but many ngos and governments do not have the resources and logistical capacity to implement all important features of a system at once. in addition, users� perception of management features is important to increase buy-in and adoption of a new system. which aspects of a commons management system do users perceive to be most important? we conduct a conjoint survey experiment about groundwater management with rural residents in the semi-arid region of northeast brazil. we randomly vary five features of a water management system: 1) discussion, 2) social sanctions for overuse, 3) rules and penalties, 4) payment, 5) monitoring and dissemination of conditions to users. each feature increases perceived likelihood of collective well management and individual water conservation. we find that features act as complements or substitutes; in particular, discussion complements monitoring, and payment substitutes for rules. our results have implications for how to study and prioritize the features of cpr management systems to improve water security in other rural, semi-arid regions with groundwater reliance when it is infeasible to implement all recommended features. 8. title: global socio-economic and climate change mitigation scenarios through the lens of structural change authors: julien lef�vre, thomas le gallic, panagiotis fragkos, jean-fran�ois mercure, ... leonidas paroussos abstract: this paper analyses structural change in the economy as a key but largely unexplored aspect of global socio-economic and climate change mitigation scenarios. structural change can actually drive energy and land use as much as economic growth and influence mitigation opportunities and barriers. conversely, stringent climate policy is bound to induce specific structural and socio-economic transformations that are still insufficiently understood. we introduce multi-sectoral macroeconomic integrated assessment models as tools to capture the key drivers of structural change and we conduct a multi-model study to assess main structural effects � changes of the sectoral composition and intensity of trade of global and regional economies � in a baseline and 2�c policy scenario by 2050. first, the range of baseline projections across models, for which we identify the main drivers, illustrates the uncertainty on future economic pathways � in emerging economies especially � and inform on plausible alternative futures with implications for energy use and emissions. second, in all models, climate policy in the 2�c scenario imposes only a second-order impact on the economic structure at the macro-sectoral level � agriculture, manufacturing and services - compared to changes modelled in the baseline. however, this hides more radical changes for individual industries � within the energy sector especially. the study, which adopts a top-down framing of global structural change, represents a starting point to kick-start a conversation and propose a new research agenda seeking to improve understanding of the structural change effects in socio-economic and mitigation scenarios, and better inform policy assessments. 9. title: aligning climate and sustainable development finance through an sdg lens. the role of development assistance in implementing the paris agreement authors: gabriela ileana iacobuc, clara brandi, adis dzebo, sofia donaji elizalde duron abstract: climate change and development are strongly interconnected. an efficient use of financial resources would, thus require alignment between climate finance and development priorities, as set out in the context of both the paris agreement and the 2030 agenda for sustainable development. in this paper, we investigate to what extent climate-related official development assistance (oda) before and after the paris agreement adoption supports the implementation of the sustainable development goals (sdgs). moreover, we assess to what extent donors align this finance with recipient countries� climate-related priorities as spelled out in their nationally determined contributions (ndcs). first, we find that climate-relevant oda contributes to multiple sdgs, above all sdg 7 (energy) and sdg 11 (cities). second, we find that there is substantial alignment between donors� and recipients� sdg priorities, but that this alignment has not improved in recent years, since the conclusion of the paris agreement. third, we find that albeit climate-finance continues to be allocated more to climate-change mitigation than to adaptation, the difference became smaller in recent years. this reduced the misalignment with recipient countries� ndc climate activities, which focus more on adaptation than mitigation. overall, we identify coherence, gaps and opportunities for further alignment of climate and development actions, and related finance. such an alignment is essential to increase the likelihood of implementation of the two international agreements and to ensure that action is guided by recipient countries� needs. 10. title: exposure to extreme climate decreases self-rated health score: large-scale survey evidence from china authors: zhiming yang, bo yang, pengfei liu, yunquan zhang, ... xiao-chen yuan abstract: high temperature is a growing threat and impacts public health through different exposure mechanisms. our study constructs a comprehensive exposure measurement based on temperature variability, duration, and effective influence range. we investigate human responses to high temperatures through self-rated health scores based on individual-level data from china labor-force dynamic survey (clds). results show that higher temperature and temperature variability significantly decrease self-rated health scores. subjective health risk is most significantly related to the cumulative temperature in the previous two weeks. we also find that the exposure effects at night and on weekdays are more severe. workers who experience greater exposure from commuting and work environments are negatively impacted by high temperatures. in addition, men, the elderly, middle and low education groups, rural residents are more likely to be impacted by high temperatures. 11. title: gaining public engagement to restore coral reef ecosystems in the face of acute crisis authors: (jenny) dung le, susanne becken, matt curnock abstract: the twin crisis of biodiversity loss and climate change make it urgent to find ways of restoring natural ecosystems, including coral reefs. methods for coral reef restoration are rapidly advancing, bringing with them a range of potential risks and opportunities. attention to public engagement in the governance of such activities therefore becomes critical. this research examines public attitudinal and behavioral engagement in �traditional� coral restoration projects in the great barrier reef world heritage area (i.e. coral gardening at relatively small scales). grounded on dual-process decision-making and trust theories, rational factors (i.e., perceived benefits), emotions (i.e., hope and guilt) and trust are conceptually three main determinants of public engagement in ecological restoration. we used a mixed-method approach, including 63 individual interviews and a follow-up survey with 1585 participants, to clarify the roles of these psychological factors in motivating public engagement in current coral restoration projects. trust was found to be the most important factor influencing public acceptance (i.e., attitudinal engagement) of coral restoration, while the emotion of guilt was the most influential factor affecting public support (i.e., behavioral engagement). therefore, when advocating for conservation projects, different campaigns could be implemented with: (1) positive messages of hope and trust to gain public acceptance for government-funded restoration projects and (2) messages highlighting individual responsibility to motivate behavioral support to scale up restoration projects. 12. title: the influence of political ideology on greenhouse gas emissions authors: quan-jing wang, gen-fu feng, hai-jie wang, chun-ping chang abstract: this research tests the casual link from political ideology to national greenhouse gas emissions by utilizing multinational panel data covering 98 countries during the period 1990�2016. overall, the baseline results and robustness tests show a political divide on national greenhouse gas emissions, whereby compared to right-wing governments, left-wing governments are more likely to exhibit less carbon dioxide emissions. we further explore this topic from the perspectives of energy efficiency and education. three-stage ols regressions suggest that leftist parties increase energy efficiency and spend more on secondary education, which lead to less greenhouse gas emissions. we also introduce the interaction between political ideology and economic performance as well as globalization to test the moderating effects of economic performance and globalization. the study further looks into the interaction effects of political ideology and democracies on greenhouse gas emissions by dividing the whole sample into two sub-samples. the results indicate that the ideology effect on greenhouse gas emissions varies among countries with different economic performances or different degrees of political globalization, as well as between democracies and non-democracies. 13. title: natural disasters and climate change beliefs: the role of distance and prior beliefs authors: daniel osberghaus, carina fugger abstract: public support of climate policies crucially depends on climate change beliefs. here we analyze the effects of natural disaster experience on the belief in the existence of climate change. the primary data source is a panel survey covering 22,251 observations from 11,194 geo-located households collected in germany between 2012 and 2015, combined with satellite imagery of a major flood event in 2013. we find that flood experience had a significant positive effect on the beliefs in the existence of climate change for those respondents living close to the flooded area. however, the effect decreases sharply with distance. we further show that this overall effect is driven by those respondents who already believed in climate change before the flood � they saw their belief confirmed by their experience. in contrast, spatial proximity to the flood had no measurable effect on skeptics. these results imply that climate skeptics may not be influenced by the experience of natural disasters at their doorsteps. 14. title: explaining radical policy change: norwegian climate policy and the ban on cultivating peatlands authors: fay m. farstad, erlend andre tveiten hermansen, b�rd s�dal grasbekk, kristiane brudevoll, bob van oort abstract: for decades norwegian climate policy has largely ignored the agricultural sector and focused on cost-effective emission reductions abroad. yet in june 2020, norway decided to ban the cultivation of peatlands to protect critical carbon sinks, and the issue became �high politics�. we explain this radical policy change by combining an adapted version of the multiple streams framework with the punctuated equilibrium model of agenda-setting. we argue that the two models combined can provide a holistic explanatory framework, albeit with two revisions. firstly, the window of opportunity or punctuation was in our case of a longer duration than both models anticipate. secondly, we find that multiple complete couplings can take place within the opening of a policy (or more specifically, a decision) window. both findings can be explained by party competition, thus underlining the need to revise agenda-setting models to better account for party politics. 15. title: implementing a knowledge system: lessons from the global stewardship of climate services authors: zack guido, chris knudson, andrea k. gerlak, simon mason, ... meredith muth abstract: knowledge systems are mechanisms that can drive climate adaptation through the pursuits of enhancing resource sharing, collaboration, and learning, while at the same time helping to develop trust and credibility among individuals and intuitions. while these goals are widely discussed, less is known about the activities and strategies that knowledge systems undertake to achieve these goals. we analyze the global framework of climate services (gfcs) as a knowledge system organized around the translation of weather and climate information for decision-making. the gfcs brings together the world meteorological organization, national meteorological and hydrological services, and some of the world�s largest multilateral scientific, humanitarian, and development organizations. our analysis draws on key informant interviews, focus groups conducted in african countries, and an online survey of gfcs participants. we describe the main activities pursued by the gfcs that shaped the vision of climate services, built capacity in national climate adaptation, and created connections among diverse actors and organizations worldwide. we show how these activities generated tensions about the purpose of the gfcs and how influence among the knowledge system was distributed. based on our results, we illustrate new ways to conceptualize the strategies of knowledge systems, which we describe as (1) theorizing the norms of practice and mechanisms of change, (2) legitimizing actors, and (3) managing knowledge. these strategies identify pathways for, and pitfalls to, a knowledge system�s pursuit of its goals, providing guidance to managers of knowledge systems and an analytical framework to evaluate their impacts. 16. title: cognition of feedback loops in a fire-prone social-ecological system authors: matthew hamilton, jonathan salerno, alexandra paige fischer abstract: increasing wildfire severity highlights the need for large-scale shifts in management of fire-prone landscapes. while prior research has focused on cognitive biases, social norms, and institutional disincentives that limit reform, such factors are best understood as components of feedback loops that operate within complex adaptive systems. we evaluated the prominence and function of feedback loops embedded in cognitive maps�beliefs about patterns of causal relationships that drive system dynamics�elicited from a diverse cross-section of stakeholders in a fire-prone region in the u.s. west. we demonstrate that cognition of feedback loops is rare among individuals, but increasingly prominent within aggregations of cognitive maps, which underscores the importance of collaborative decision-making. our analysis further reveals a bias toward perception of amplifying feedback loops and of loops in which management actions result in desirable outcomes, which points to areas where progress may be made in reforming wildfire risk governance. 17. title: protected areas as a double edge sword: an analysis of factors driving urbanisation in their surroundings authors: alberto gonz�lez-garc�a, ignacio palomo, manuel arboledas, jos� a. gonz�lez, ... carlos montes abstract: protected areas (pas) are the most effective tools to protect biodiversity and ecosystem services. they have proven to be effective in stopping extensive land use conversion in well-conserved terrestrial ecosystems. however, land cover changes around pas threaten biodiversity and ecosystem services within their limits and reduce ecological connectivity. in this study, we analysed the urban sprawls on the boundaries of 159 pas (national, regional, and natural parks) in spain, using 2.5 and 5 km non-protected buffer zones from 1990 to 2018. we clustered pas based on biophysical and socio-economic characteristics and modelled urban sprawl in different buffers and periods. hierarchical clustering revealed three groups of pas: (a) proximate urban parks, (b) mountainous parks, and (c) parks in the madrid autonomous region. we found that urbanisation in the surroundings of pas in spain has nearly doubled since 1990. general linear models explained a significant proportion of the urbanisation trends observed, with the number of municipalities in the boundary of the pa, the distance to a main road, and the distance to a big city acting as the most important drivers of urban sprawl. our results also show that some pas exert significant effects on urbanisation trends in their surroundings through the park-view effect. finally, we highlight three coexisting phenomena that might explain the observed urban sprawl processes: (a) pas attracting urbanisation in their surroundings due to the park-view effect, (b) pas as a deterrent for urban sprawl within their limits, and (c) pas occupying residual areas among previously urbanised lands. 18. title: finding the right partners? examining inequalities in the global investment landscape of hydropower authors: francesca larosa, jamie rickman, nadia ameli abstract: clean and affordable energy is crucial to achieve a sustainable future. despite being controversial, hydropower remains the predominant low-cost and reliable source of energy at global level, as it stabilizes the provision of electricity and it bears the power peaks without losing efficiency. however, hydropower requires huge upfront investments and patient functional capital. under the paris agreement, countries committed to direct financial capital flows towards a low-emission pathway in order to enable the transition. furthermore, private capital strongly engaged with a transition towards a climate-smart economy. the aim of this work is to study the investment system behind hydropower, investors� behaviour and the optimal allocation of finance to favour the deployment of capital flows. we use bloomberg energy finance database to track public�private investments over the past century (1903�2020). we use network models to represent the hydropower project financing landscape as a network of co-investments. we find that investors are highly localized, with continental players mostly interacting with counterparts in the same area of the world. powerful exceptions are international organisations and multilateral banks which coinvest across the globe. they also tend to support low-income and fragile countries, meeting their mandate of sustainable development champions. multilateral banks and international organisations are the most critical actors in enabling public�private co-investments; they activate partnerships with a wider diversity of investors within the network creating more opportunities for blended finance tools. our results offer a novel perspective on finance for the energy transition: it challenges the idea that more capital invested is better and calls for a more efficient allocation of the available resources. 19. title: enforcement and inequality in collective pes to reduce tropical deforestation: effectiveness, efficiency and equity implications authors: julia naime, arild angelsen, adriana molina-garz�n, cau� d. carrilho, ... christopher martius abstract: collective payments for ecosystem services (pes), where forest users receive compensation conditional on group rather than individual performance, are an increasingly used policy instrument to reduce tropical deforestation. however, implementing effective, (cost) efficient and equitable (3e) collective pes is challenging because individuals have an incentive to free ride on others� conservation actions. few comparative studies exist on how different enforcement strategies can improve collective pes performance. we conducted a framed field experiment in brazil, indonesia and peru to evaluate how three different strategies to contain the local free-rider problem perform in terms of the 3es: (i) public monitoring of individual deforestation, (ii) internal, peer-to-peer sanctions (community enforcement) and (iii) external sanctions (government enforcement). we also examined how inequality in wealth, framed as differences in deforestation capacity, affects policy performance. we find that introducing individual level sanctions can improve the effectiveness, efficiency and equity of collective pes, but there is no silver bullet that consistently improves all 3es across country sites. public monitoring reduced deforestation and improved the equity of the program in sites with stronger history of collective action. external sanctions provided the strongest and most robust improvement in the 3es. while internal, peer enforcement can significantly reduce free riding, it does not improve the program�s efficiency, and thus participants� earnings. the sanctioning mechanisms failed to systematically improve the equitable distribution of benefits due to the ineffectiveness of punishments to target the largest free-riders. inequality in wealth increased group deforestation and reduced the efficiency of community enforcement in indonesia but had no effect in the other two country sites. factors explaining differences across country sites include the history of collective action and land tenure systems. 20. title: catalyzing sustainability pathways: navigating urban nature based solutions in europe authors: laura tozer, harriet bulkeley, alexander van der jagt, helen toxopeus, ... hens runhaar abstract: the notion that pathways can be identified and followed towards more sustainable futures has become an increasingly prevalent idea across the science and policy of global environmental change. focusing on the debate within literatures on socio-technical systems, we find that pathways are often tied to the concept of scaling up such that they are dependent on trajectories which extend from the geographically small to large scale or from singular incidences to widespread adoption. building on relational approaches to scaling, in this paper we argue that sustainability pathways need to be conceived as emerging from the catalytic interaction of multiple and overlapping efforts to change the status quo. we suggest that pathways can be conceptualized as being composed of �stepping stones�: bundles of related interventions that seize or create opportunities to build momentum for the implementation of innovations, the form of which is not predetermined. drawing on 243 interviews, participant observation, and document analysis examining urban nature-based solutions across six european countries and the eu, we identify 20 stepping stones that can be used to accelerate the uptake of urban nbs in european cities. in the case of urban nbs in europe, we find that the capacity of stepping stones to generate catalytic change strongly depends on how they interact with one another. we illustrate that pathways are not given but rather assembled through key interventions that collectively generate the capacities and momentum needed to overcome inertia and generate new socio-material orders in which such interventions are normalized as mainstream responses to sustainability challenges. 21. title: environmental commitments in different types of democracies: the role of liberal, social-liberal, and deliberative politics authors: marina povitkina, sverker carlsson jagers abstract: since a more substantial recognition of environmental degradation in the 1960s, the scholarly community has looked at democracy with mixed feelings. some assert that democracy is devastating for the environmental performance, some claim the opposite, while others suggest that certain democratic models are more successful than others in paving the way for sustainability. both political theorists and empirical scholars add fuel to this debate, and neither has settled the argument yet. in this paper we make use of recently collected data from the varieties of democracy project on different conceptions of democracy and address both these literatures. we empirically test whether different features of democracies, i.e., liberal in its thinner understanding, social-liberal, and deliberative, are more or less beneficial for environmental commitments. we investigate which of these features make democracies more prone to produce environmental policy outputs � adopt climate laws, deliver on them, develop stringent environmental policies, and incorporate sustainability into economic policies. we find that democracies with stronger deliberative features adopt more, but not necessarily stricter or more effective, environmental policies. instead, democracies with stronger social-liberal features adopt both stricter and more effective policies. 22. title: assessing the authenticity of national carbon prices: a comparison of 31 countries authors: adam finch, jeroen van den bergh abstract: many countries have carbon pricing in place, in the form of a tax and/or market. generally, this involves low price rates, incomplete emissions coverage, and price reductions for particular sectors. this raises the question whether the label �carbon price� � in the environmental-economics textbook sense � really applies. to answer it, we assess the authenticity of 31 national carbon prices, calculating average carbon prices and their gap with advertised prices, at both national and sector levels. the results indicate a poor level of authenticity. this means that the carbon prices published by sources such as the world bank provide a misleading representation of the actual national policy pressure on emissions. countries show considerable differences regarding the average carbon price level and the gap with advertised prices. moreover, there is not a one-to-one relationship between advertised and average carbon prices, suggesting the former are not a good basis for international comparison of policy effectiveness. across countries, the mean carbon price equals � 7.90/ton of co2 while the mean price gap is 57.7%. most noticeably, the highest advertised price for sweden should be interpreted with care as it goes along with a price gap of almost � 100 to the average price. in addition, switzerland and finland show relatively high price gaps. to illustrate the relevance and non-triviality of our indicators, note that sweden occupies a 3rd position in terms of average carbon price (after norway and switzerland), 27th in terms of price gap, and 16th in terms of effective rate (i.e. sum of implicit and explicit carbon prices). we further find that implicit carbon prices dominate explicit ones for most countries, notably in road transport, whereas the reverse holds for industrial and electricity sectors. combining our findings with recent empirical evidence for carbon-pricing effectiveness highlights the potential of the instrument to combat climate change, provided implementation is improved and internationally harmonized. shifting the attention from advertised to average carbon prices might help in this regard. 23. title: outcome indicator development: defining education for sustainable development outcomes for the individual level and connecting them to the sdgs authors: julia g�nther, anne k. overbeck, sina muster, benjamin j. tempel, ... siegmar otto abstract: education for sustainable development (esd) has become a key concept to achieve global sustainable development. esd aims at enabling people to think and act in a sustainable, future-oriented manner. for this purpose, esd should not only equip learners with knowledge but is supposed to promote and advance the acquisition of sustainability competencies to address the challenges of the 21st century at a social, environmental, and economic level. regarding the systematic implementation of esd and its evidence-based management, an assessment of its outcomes is crucial. so far, however, esd outcomes have only been partially assessed systematically. we developed a domain-specific esd outcome indicator test (oit) which strives to fill this gap. the test is intended to contribute towards the monitoring and further development of esd in the school system. this article presents the procedure and the central findings of developing a model using an inductive research design. the model comprises the possible outcomes of esd and thus functions as the basis of the oit. it considers six thematic action domains for students as well as cognitive, attitudinal, and behavioural outcome components. the six action domains have been defined based on 15 interviews with experts from the arrays of esd research, practice, and policy and a review of n = 195 sustainability related psychological scales. these were linked to the sustainable development goals (sdgs), so that connectivity between outcomes at the individual level and political respectively societal goals is ensured. 24. title: the strengths and weaknesses of future visioning approaches for climate change adaptation: a review authors: johanna nalau, gemma cobb abstract: adaptation to climate change is about planning for the future while responding to current pressures and challenges. adaptation scientists are increasingly using future visioning exercises embedded in co-production and co-development techniques to assist stakeholders in imagining futures in a changing climate. even if these exercises are growing in popularity, surprisingly little scrutiny has been placed on understanding the fundamental assumptions and choices in scenario approaches, timeframes, scales, or methods, and whether they result in meaningful changes in how adaptation is being thought about. here, we unpack key insights and experiences across 62 case studies that specifically report on using future visioning exercises to engage stakeholders in climate change adaptation. we focus on three key areas: 1) stakeholder diversity and scales; 2) tools, methods, and data, and 3) practical constraints, enablers, and outcomes. our results show that most studies focus on the regional scale (n = 32; 52%), involve mainly formal decision makers and employ vast array of different methods, tools, and data. interestingly, most exercises adopt either predictive (what will happen) and explorative (what could happen) scenarios while only a fraction use the more normative (what should happen) scenarios that could enable more transformative thinking. reported positive outcomes include demonstrated increases in climate change literacy and support for climate change adaptation planning. unintended and unexpected outcomes include increased anxiety in cases where introduced timeframes go beyond an individual�s expected life span and decreased perceived necessity for undertaking adaptation at all. key agreed factors that underpin co-production and equal representation, such as gender, age, and diversity, are not well reported, and most case studies do not use reflective processes to harness participant feedback that could enable more robust methodology development. this is a missed opportunity in developing a more fundamental understanding of how these exercises can effectively shift individual and collective mindsets and advance the inclusion of different viewpoints as a pathway for more equitable and just climate adaptation. 25. title: forest 404: using a bbc drama series to explore the impact of nature�s changing soundscapes on human wellbeing and behavior authors: alexander j. smalley, mathew p. white, rebecca ripley, timothy x atack, ... michael h. depledge abstract: extensive ecosystem degradation and increasing urbanization are altering human relationships with nature. to explore these trends, we created a transdisciplinary, narrative-led podcast series produced by the bbc, called forest 404. the series explored the implications of a world without nature. an online experimental component mobilized audience participation (n = 7,596) to assess responses to natural soundscapes with and without abiotic, biotic, and poetic elements across five biomes. conditions featuring the sounds of wildlife, such as bird song, were perceived to be more psychologically restorative than those without. participants� personal lived experiences were strongly related to these outcomes; those who had memories triggered by the sounds were more likely to find them psychologically restorative and exhibited a greater motivation to preserve them. moreover, the effects of both soundscape composition and memories on preservation behavior were partially mediated by restorative potential; respondents were more likely to want to protect the sounds they heard if they thought they might offer therapeutic outcomes. our findings highlight the value of art-science collaborations and demonstrate how maintaining contact with the natural world can promote wellbeing and foster behaviors that protect planetary health. 26. title: navigating climate crises in the great barrier reef authors: michele l. barnes, amber datta, sheriden morris, imogen zethoven abstract: a dramatic escalation of extreme climate events is challenging the capacity of environmental governance regimes to sustain and improve ecosystem outcomes. it has been argued that actors within adaptive governance regimes can help to steer environmental systems toward sustainability in times of crisis. yet there is little empirical evidence of how acute climate crises are navigated by actors operating within adaptive governance regimes, and the factors that influence their responses. here, we qualitatively assessed the actions key governance actors took in response to back-to-back mass coral bleaching � an extreme climate event � of the great barrier reef in 2016 and 2017, and explored their perceptions of barriers and catalysts to these responses. this research was, in part, a product of collaboration and knowledge co-production with great barrier reef governance actors aimed at improving responses to climate crises in the region. we found five major categories of activity that actors engaged with in the wake of recurrent mass coral bleaching: assessing the scale and extent of bleaching, sharing information, communicating bleaching to the public, building local resilience, and addressing global threats. these actions were both catalyzed and hindered by a range of factors that fall within different domains of adaptive capacity; such as assets, social organization, and agency. we discuss the implications of our findings as they relate to existing research on adaptive capacity and adaptive governance. we conclude by coalescing insights from our interviews and a participant engagement process to highlight four key ways in which the ability of governance actors, and the great barrier reef governance regime more broadly, can be better prepared for, and more effectively respond to extreme climate events. our research provides empirical insight into how crises are experienced by governance actors in a large-scale environmental system, potentially providing lessons for similar systems across the globe. 27. title: co-dynamics of climate policy stringency and public support authors: th�o konc, stefan drews, ivan savin, jeroen c.j.m. van den bergh abstract: #%-.03689:<e��ʻʻʩ��wobtf9thj�5�ojqj^jo(h�}zh�}z5�ojqj^jh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(h-!�5�cjojqj^jajh 2e5�cjojqj^jaj#h�}zh�}z5�cjojqj^jajh�}z5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj h$-�5�cjojqj^jajo(#h�}zh�}z5�cjojqj^jaj9:;� ��g��f��f��&�&l'�'4,5,��gd�psgd)w�gd$?�gdto�gd�l$gd%j,gdu<�gd�"�$a$gdt4�� 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