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��ࡱ�>�� u �r��ibjbj�n�n2l��a��a�� ""��8��4�`vl!!!!!uuu�u�u�u�u�u�u�u$�w��zf�u9�uuuuu�u��!!4va"a"a"u��!�!�ua"u�ua"a"a"!��d��#!la"�u0v0`va"�zo!f�za"a"�/�z�r�uua"uuuuu�u�u�!�uuu`vuuuu��zuuuuuuuuu"qs: global environmental change volume 69, issue 4, july 2021 1. title: contraction and convergence of in-use metal stocks to meet climate goals authors: takuma watari, keisuke nansai, kenichi nakajima abstract: the foundations of modern society are based on metals, yet their production is currently placing considerable strain on the earth�s carrying capacity. here, we develop a century-long scenario for six major metals (iron, aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, and nickel) harmonized with climate goals, with the goal of establishing science-based targets. we show that for the metal sector to contribute proportionally to emission reductions targets of the industrial sector, global in-use metal stocks need to converge from the current level of around 4 t/capita to about 7 t/capita. this will require today�s high-income countries to contract their per capita stock from current levels of about 12 t/capita to make room for growth in countries that are presently classified as middle- and low-income countries. in such a contraction and convergence scenario, primary production of all six metals will peak by 2030, and secondary production will surpass primary production by at least 2050. consequently, cumulative ore requirements over the 21st century will remain below currently identified resources, implying that natural ore extraction will be limited by emissions budgets before existing resources can be depleted. importantly, realizing such system changes will require urgent and concerted international efforts involving all countries, but specific responsibilities will vary according to income level. namely, wealthy countries will need to use existing metal stocks more intensively and for longer periods to reduce stock replacement demand, while poor countries will need to develop long-lasting and material-efficient infrastructure to curtail stock expansion demand in the first half of the 21st century. 2. title: how eu policies could reduce nutrient pollution in european inland and coastal waters authors: b. grizzetti, o. vigiak, a. udias, a. aloe, ... m. bielza abstract: intensive agriculture and densely populated areas represent major sources of nutrient pollution for european inland and coastal waters, altering the aquatic ecosystems and affecting their capacity to provide ecosystem services and support economic activities. ambitious water policies are in place in the european union (eu) for protecting and restoring aquatic ecosystems under the water framework directive and the marine strategy framework directive. this research quantified the current pressures of point and diffuse nitrogen and phosphorus emissions to european fresh and coastal waters (2005�2012), and analysed the effects of three policy scenarios of nutrient reduction: 1) the application of measures currently planned in the rural development programmes and under the urban waste water treatment directive (uwwtd); 2) the full implementation of the uwwtd and the absence of derogations in the nitrates directive; 3) high reduction of nutrient, using best technologies in wastewaters treatment and optimal fertilisation in agriculture. the results of the study show that for the period 2005�2012, the nitrogen load to european seas was 3.3�4.1 tgn/y and the phosphorus load was 0.26�0.30 tgp/y. policy measures supporting technological improvements (third scenario) could decrease the nutrient export to the seas up to 14% for nitrogen and 20% for phosphorus, improving the ecological status of rivers and lakes, but widening the nutrient imbalance in coastal ecosystems (i.e. increasing nitrogen availability with respect to phosphorus), affecting eutrophication. further nutrient reductions could be possible by a combination of measures especially in the agricultural sector. however, without tackling current agricultural production and consumption system, the reduction might not be sufficient for achieving the goals of eu water policy in some regions. the study analysed the expected changes and the source contribution in different european regional seas, and highlights the advantages of addressing the land-sea dynamics, checking the coherence of measures taken under different policies. 3. title: no peace for the forest: rapid, widespread land changes in the andes-amazon region following the colombian civil war authors: paulo j. murillo-sandoval, emma gjerdseth, camilo correa-ayram, david wrathall, ... robert kennedy abstract: negative environmental impacts of violent conflict have been observed worldwide. whether or not active global conflicts are declining in number remains hotly debated, the number of countries entering post-conflict periods is on the rise, and the impact of this transition on land cover changes remains poorly understood. in colombia, though large-scale armed conflict has concluded, the post-conflict period represents an ongoing threat to forest conservation, putting at risk commitments to meet global conservation goals and even those stipulated in the peace accord. this paper aims to assess land cover change associated with the colombian conflict in the andes-amazon region between 1988 and 2019. first, we use the landsat archive to map land cover and characterize the spatial patterns of change at the regional level. second, to empirically identify the effect of conflict on land cover change, we employ a difference-in-difference approach using local conflict events data. during conflict (1988�2011), land cover in the andes-amazon remained relatively stable, however during the post-conflict period (2012�2019), the conversion from forest to agriculture increased by 40%. we find that forest cover surrounding conflict events (1 km radius) decreased significantly, on average by ~ 19% during conflict, which accelerated to ~ 30% in the post-conflict period. similarly, agriculture expansion is most substantial during the post-conflict period, but exclusively in municipalities with population below the 50th percentile. landscape metrics show that in peripheral municipalities (<50th), agriculture occurs in clumped distributions during the conflict period. meanwhile, during the post-conflict period, this expansion happens more quickly, with significantly greater agricultural patch sizes than during the conflict period. we conclude that a slow implementation of conservation governance, the emergence of illegal land markets, and illicit land uses (i.e., coca and illegal cattle ranching) may accelerate land cover change in the coming years. 4. title: influences of international agricultural trade on the global phosphorus cycle and its associated issues authors: fei lun, jordi sardans, danfeng sun, xiao xiao, ... josep pe�uelas abstract: industrial phosphorus (p) fertilizer has substantially improved global food production, but has also led to environmental impacts. intensive global agricultural trade has increased and the impacts of trade on aggravating or alleviating future p scarcity must be examined, especially for the most vulnerable countries. we combined data to estimate the global p trade among countries and its impacts on global p flows, based on global agricultural trade, cropland soil p budgets and crop p fertilizer footprints (the amount of industrial p fertilizer applied for producing one unit of p in the harvested crop). the global agricultural p trade represented a fraction of 16% of p in harvested crops in 2014, half of which was exported from the united states of america, brazil and the european union and one fifth imported by china. virtual p fertilizer flows (about 2.60 tg p y-1) referred to industrial p fertilizers applied to traded crops by exporting countries; thus, 1/3 of global virtual p fertilizer flows were associated with the international soybean trade. p use efficiency (pue), the ratio of the harvested crop-p to the total external p inputs, is a larger problem for tropical than temperate countries. global crop trade had brought in a net 0.2 tg p y-1 savings of industrial p fertilizers globally, compared to crop production in export and import countries. >0.50 tg y-1 of the gross global accumulation of soil p and p in freshwater were associated with global agricultural trade. global pue, however, could be improved considerably, and thus global cooperation and improving pue could help to solve the problem of future p scarcity. vulnerable countries should also propose urgent national plans to address their own situations of p scarcity or low pue. 5. title: climate variability and irregular migration to the european union authors: fabien cottier, idean salehyan abstract: the so-called �european migrant crisis� has been blamed on armed conflict and economic misery, particularly in the middle east and sub-saharan africa. some have suggested that this process has been exacerbated by climate change and weather events. in this paper, we evaluate these claims, focusing on the role of droughts in influencing irregular migration flows to the european union. drawing on temporally disaggregated data on the detection of unauthorized migrants at eu external borders, we examine how weather shocks affect irregular migration. we show that weather events may indeed influence migration. yet, in contradiction to the findings from recent research, we find no evidence that a drought in a sending country increases unauthorized migration to the eu. if anything, and while not entirely conclusive, the incidence of drought seems rather to exert a negative, albeit moderate, impact on the size of migration flows, in particular for countries dependent on agriculture. conversely, higher levels of rainfall increase migration. we interpret this as evidence that international migration is cost-prohibitive, and that adverse weather shocks reinforce existing financial barriers to migration. 6. title: exploring sustainable aquaculture development using a nutrition-sensitive approach authors: alon shepon, jessica a. gephart, christopher d. golden, patrik john gustav henriksson, ... gidon eshel abstract: micronutrient deficiencies constitute a pressing public health concern, especially in developing countries. as a dense source of bioavailable nutrients, aquatic foods can help alleviate such deficiencies. developing aquaculture that provides critical micronutrients without sacrificing the underlying environmental resources that support these food production systems is therefore essential. here, we address these dual challenges by optimizing nutrient supply while constraining the environmental impacts from aquaculture. using life cycle assessment and nutritional data from indonesia, a top aquaculture producer, we sought to identify aquaculture systems that increase micronutrient supplies and reduce environmental impacts (e.g., habitat destruction, freshwater pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions). aquaculture systems in indonesia vary more by environmental impacts (e.g. three order of magnitude for fresh water usage) than by nutritional differences (approximately � 50% differences from mean relative nutritional score). nutritional-environmental tradeoffs exist, with no single system offering a complete nutrition-environment win�win. we also find that previously proposed future aquaculture paths suboptimally balance nutritional and environmental impacts. instead, we identify optimized aquaculture production scenarios for 2030 with nutrient per gram densities 105�320% that of business-as-usual production and with environmental impacts as low as 25% of those of business-as-usual. in these scenarios pangasius fish (pangasius hypophthalmus) ponds prove desirable due to their low environmental impacts, but average relative nutrient score. while the environmental impacts of the three analyzed brackish water systems range from average to high compared to other aquaculture systems, their nutritional attributes render them necessary when maximizing all nutrients except vitamin a. common carp (cyprinus carpio) ponds also proved essential in maximizing zinc and omega n-3, while tilapia (oreochromis niloticus) cages were necessary in optimizing the production of calcium and vitamin a. these optimal aquaculture strategies also reduce business-as-usual demand for wild fish-based feed by 0�30% and mangrove expansion by 0�75% with no additional expansion into inland open waters and freshwater ponds. as aquaculture production expands globally, optimization presents a powerful opportunity to reduce malnutrition rates at reduced environmental impacts. the proposed reorientation promotes un sustainable development goals 2 (zero hunger), 3 (health), 13 (climate action) and 14 (life under water) and requires concerted and targeted policy changes. 7. title: international politics must be considered together with climate and fisheries regulation as a driver of marine ecosystems authors: gustavo f. de carvalho-souza, mar�a �ngeles torres, carlos farias, juan jos� acosta, ... marcos llope abstract: seafood is an essential source of protein globally. as its demand continues to rise, balancing food security and the health of marine ecosystems has become a pressing challenge. ecosystem-based fisheries management (ebfm) has been adopted by the european union (eu) common fisheries policy (cfp) to meet this challenge by accounting for the multiple interacting natural and socio-economic drivers. the cfp includes both the implementation of regulatory measures to eu stocks and the establishment of bilateral fisheries agreements with neighbouring countries, known as sustainable fisheries partnership agreements (sfpas). while the effects of fisheries management regulations are well acknowledged, the consequences of the sfpas on eu ecosystems have been commonly overlooked. here we investigate the development of the gulf of cadiz marine ecosystem over the last two decades and found evidence of the impact of both policy interventions. our findings reveal the effectiveness of regulatory measures in reverting a progressively degrading ecosystem, characterised by high fishing pressure and dominance of opportunistic species, to a more stable configuration, characterised by higher biomass of small pelagics and top predators after 2005. knock-on effects of the eu-morocco sfpa and climate effects were detected before 2005, resulting in increased purse seine fishing effort, lower biomass of pelagic species and warmer temperatures. this southern eu marine ecosystem has been one of the latest to introduce regulations and is very exposed to fishery agreements with neighbouring morocco. our study highlights the importance of taking into consideration, not only the effects of in situ fisheries regulations but also the indirect implications of political agreements in the framework of ebfm. 8. title: (un)making in sustainability transformation beyond capitalism authors: giuseppe feola, olga koretskaya, danika moore abstract: theorizations of sustainability transformation have foregrounded the construction (making) of novel socioecological relations; however, they generally have obscured processes of deliberate deconstruction (unmaking) of existing, unsustainable ones. amidst ever more compelling evidence of the simultaneous unsustainability and continued reproduction of capitalist modernity, it is misguided to assume that transformation can happen by the mere construction of supposed �solutions�, be they technological, social or cultural. we rather need to better understand whether and how existing institutions, forms of knowledge, practices, imaginaries, power structures, and human-non-human relations can be deconstructed at the service of sustainability transformation. this paper demonstrates the usefulness of a lens that attends to processes of making and unmaking in sustainability transformations through an analysis of an ongoing sustainability transformation, the territorios campesinos agroalimentarios (tca) endogenous territorial figure and peasant movement in colombia. tca is transforming territory beyond capitalism on the basis of relational ontologies and principles of autonomy, dignity and sufficiency. this paper identifies processes of unmaking of capitalism in the tca and demonstrates how they are concretely entangled in the construction of post-capitalist realities. this paper sketches a research agenda on sustainability transformation that is sensitive to and theoretically equipped for the analysis of transformation as a multifaceted, multilevel process that entails the deconstruction of capitalist modernity and the construction of post-capitalist realities. central to this agenda is a plural engagement with theories of social change from across the social sciences and humanities, which have not previously been mobilized for this endeavour. 9. title: the impact of local temperature volatility on attention to climate change: evidence from spanish tweets authors: c. mumenthaler, o. renaud, r. gava, t. brosch abstract: variability in local weather patterns has long been suggested as a major barrier impeding laypeople from recognizing long-term climate trends. however, as humans are able to detect and interpret rapid signal fluctuations, it seems psychologically plausible to assume that they are able to integrate short-term variations of weather variables into their mental representations of climate change. using a combined analysis of social media and weather station data, here we investigated the impact of the short-term volatility of local temperature on climate change-related tweets from 2014 to 2017. we found a nonlinear hockey stick relationship between weekly temperature volatility and climate change-related tweets, a volatility rise of 1 �c corresponds to an 82% increase in climate change tweets when volatility is above 3.5 �c. this volatility effect was observed from 2016 onwards, suggesting a recent change in people�s mental representations of climate change. this study provides empirical evidence illustrating that in the public mind, climate change may not be represented as a mere temperature increase any more, but as a disruption of the climate system in general. 10. title: to be ethical or to be good? the impact of �good provider� and moral norms on food waste decisions in two countries authors: pengji wang, breda mccarthy, ariadne beatrice kapetanaki abstract: one-third of all food produced in the world is lost or wasted, which has negative consequences for societies and the environment. thus, curbing food waste is critical to securing human well-being and protecting the environment. this study examines the drivers of household food waste decisions by investigating the activation and deactivation of moral norms and introducing the concept of the �good provider� in an augmented norm-activation model (nam). a survey of 643 consumers in australia and singapore explores the �good provider� norm as a driver of food waste behaviours in both cultures. for australians, �good provider� norms suppress intentions to avoid food waste, most likely to provide for the immediate family, which can be a motive that overrides moral concern about food waste in an individualistic culture. for singaporeans, �good provider� norms do not suppress food waste intentions, possibly due to the value placed on thrift by a long-term-oriented culture. the paper significantly extends the previous research on norms, culture and sustainable consumption and provides policy and practical implications for curbing food waste in different cultural contexts. 11. title: walking with farmers: floods, agriculture and the social practice of everyday mobility authors: alex arnall abstract: despite growing interest in the relationship between human mobility and environmental variability and change in recent years, there is relatively little understanding of the role of human agency within this nexus. this paper helps to address this knowledge gap by illuminating the role of perception, action and decision-making in the everyday. using an innovative walking methodology, it presents an empirical case study of regularised farmers� movements in and out of a floodplain during the rainy season in central mozambique to show how people�s day-to-day routes are continuously reproduced through meaningful encounters and engagements with physical obstacles and other people. the paper demonstrates how a concern with everyday mobility highlights people�s day-to-day capacities to respond to environmental variability and change while also drawing attention to the challenges associated with the gradual accumulation of risk in mobile, rural livelihoods. 12. title: air conditioning and global inequality authors: lucas davis, paul gertler, stephen jarvis, catherine wolfram abstract: as global temperatures go up and incomes rise, air conditioner sales are poised to increase dramatically. recent studies explore the potential economic and environmental impacts of this growth, but relatively little attention has been paid to the implications for inequality. in this paper we use household-level microdata from 16 countries to characterize empirically the relationship between climate, income, and residential air conditioning. we show that both current and future air conditioner usage is concentrated among high-income households. not only do richer countries have much more air conditioning than poorer countries, but within countries adoption is highly concentrated among high-income households. the pattern of adoption is particularly stark in relatively low-income countries such as pakistan, where we show that the vast majority of adoption between now and 2050 will be concentrated among the upper income tercile. we use our model to forecast future adoption, show how patterns vary across countries and income levels, and discuss what these patterns mean for health, productivity, and educational inequality. 13. title: scenario archetypes reveal risks and opportunities for global mountain futures authors: jessica p.r. thorn, julia a. klein, cara steger, kelly a. hopping, ... robert a. marchant abstract: mountain social-ecological systems (mtses) are transforming rapidly due to changes in multiple environmental and socioeconomic drivers. however, the complexity and diversity of mtses present challenges for local communities, researchers and decision makers seeking to anticipate change and promote action towards sustainable mtses. participatory scenario planning can reveal potential futures and their interacting dynamics, while archetype analysis aggregates insights from site-based scenarios. we combined a systematic review of the global mtses participatory scenarios literature and archetype analysis to identify emergent mtses archetypal configurations. an initial sample of 1983 rendered 42 articles that contained 142 scenarios within which were 852 �futures states�. from these future states within the scenarios, we identified 59 desirable and undesirable futures that were common across studies. these �common futures� were grouped into four clusters that correlated significantly with three social-ecological factors (gdp per capita, income inequality, and mean annual temperature). using these clusters and their associated significant factors, we derived four mtses scenario archetypal configurations characterized by similar key adaptation strategies, assumptions, risks, and uncertainties. we called these archetypes: (1) �revitalization through effective institutions and tourism�; (2) �local innovations in smallholder farming and forestry�; (3) �upland depopulation and increased risk of hazards�; and (4) �regulated economic and ecological prosperity�. results indicate risks to be mitigated, including biodiversity loss, ecosystem degradation, cultural heritage change, loss of connection to the land, weak leadership, market collapse, upland depopulation, increased landslides, avalanches, mudflows and rock falls, as well as climate variability and change. transformative opportunities lie in adaptive biodiversity conservation, income diversification, adaptation to market fluxes, improving transport and irrigation infrastructure, high quality tourism and preserving traditional knowledge. despite the uncertainties arising from global environmental changes, these archetypes support better targeting of evidence-informed actions across scales and sectors in mtses. 14. title: surge in global metal mining threatens vulnerable ecosystems authors: sebastian luckeneder, stefan giljum, anke schaffartzik, victor maus, michael tost abstract: mining activities induce profound changes to societies and the environment they inhabit. with global extraction of metal ores doubling over the past two decades, pressures related to mining have dramatically increased. in this paper, we explore where growing global metal extraction has particularly taken effect. using fine-grain data, we investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of mining of nine metal ores (bauxite, copper, gold, iron, lead, manganese, nickel, silver and zinc) across approximately 3,000 sites of extraction worldwide between 2000 and 2019. to approach the related environmental implications, we intersect mining sites with terrestrial biomes, protected areas, and watersheds categorised by water availability. we find that 79% of global metal ore extraction in 2019 originated from five of the six most species-rich biomes, with mining volumes doubling since 2000 in tropical moist forest ecosystems. we also find that half of global metal ore extraction took place at 20 km or less from protected territories. further, 90% of all considered extraction sites correspond to below-average relative water availability, with particularly copper and gold mining occurring in areas with significant water scarcity. our study has far-reaching implications for future global and local policy and resource management responses to mitigate the negative effects of the expected expansion of metal mining. 15. title: framing the frontier � tracing issues related to soybean expansion in transnational public spheres authors: finn mempel, esteve corbera abstract: rapid soybean expansion in south america has been linked to numerous socio-environmental problems, including deforestation in sensitive biomes. as a major importing region of soybeans, wider public awareness has also put pressure on the european union. different governance initiatives involving various groups of stakeholders have sought to address these issues. however, what is identified as a relevant problem, as a region of interest or which actors are mentioned in this context are all matters of claims-making processes between different groups and mediated through various channels of communication. this study uses a text-mining approach to trace the construction of socio-ecological problems related to soybean expansion and the actors and regions linked with these issues in public discourse. the focus lies on print media from the european union, but several additional sources are included to investigate the similarities and differences between various communication channels and regions. these include newspaper articles from producing countries and international news agencies, scientific abstracts, corporate statements, and reports from advocacy groups gathered from the mid-1990s to 2020. the results show that european mass media have shifted their focus from consumer labeling, health, and concerns over genetically modified organisms towards more distant or abstract phenomena, such as deforestation and climate change. this has been accompanied with a broader view on different stakeholders, but also with a strong regional focus on the amazon biome. there has also been much less attention on direct concerns for communities in producing regions, such as land conflicts or disputes over intellectual property rights. we conclude that while european public spheres appear to become more receptive to issues related to impacts in sourcing regions, there remains a narrow focus on specific problems and regions, which reflects a fundamental asymmetry in different stakeholders' ability to shape transnational deliberations and resulting governance processes. 16. title: in government we trust? micro-business adaptation to climate change in four post-colonial and transitional economies of china authors: alex y. lo, shuwen liu, alice s.y. chow, qing pei, ... lincoln fok abstract: public expectations of government influence private action for managing climate change risks. institutional neglect or incompetence result in a loss of trust in public institutions, consequently discouraging the public from taking added responsibility for risk management. this has been explained in terms of social contract, but evidence suggests that a politics of distrust can reinforce alternative social drivers of action, rather than displacing action. this is empirically confirmed by the present study, which examines the tendencies for adopting private protective measures across a gradient of institutional trust. surveys were conducted in four jurisdictions within china that operate under two different political-economic systems, namely, hong kong and macao (liberal market economy), and zhuhai and sanya (socialist market economy). structured interviews were conducted with 569 business operators to explore how their stated adaptation practice is related to institutional trust and social capital. we found that trust predicted action only in sanya, which is characterized by a high level of public confidence in authorities. in places of lower institutional trust, social capital became a salient and powerful driver of action. the weakening of the social contracts in hong kong and macao turned their people to alternative social mechanisms. we explain the results in terms of the development trajectories, socio-political norms and institutional settings of these jurisdictions. this study provides insights into how adaptation practice can be mediated by the consequences of a change in political leadership, policy, or governance arrangements that alters the relationship of trust. 17. title: a conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change authors: timothy r. carter, magnus benzie, emanuele campiglio, henrik carlsen, ... chris west abstract: climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability studies tend to confine their attention to impacts and responses within the same geographical region. however, this approach ignores cross-border climate change impacts that occur remotely from the location of their initial impact and that may severely disrupt societies and livelihoods. we propose a conceptual framework and accompanying nomenclature for describing and analysing such cross-border impacts. the conceptual framework distinguishes an initial impact that is caused by a climate trigger within a specific region. downstream consequences of that impact propagate through an impact transmission system while adaptation responses to deal with the impact propagate through a response transmission system. a key to understanding cross-border impacts and responses is a recognition of different types of climate triggers, categories of cross-border impacts, the scales and dynamics of impact transmission, the targets and dynamics of responses and the socio-economic and environmental context that also encompasses factors and processes unrelated to climate change. these insights can then provide a basis for identifying relevant causal relationships. we apply the framework to the floods that affected industrial production in thailand in 2011, and to projected arctic sea ice decline, and demonstrate that the framework can usefully capture the complex system dynamics of cross-border climate impacts. it also provides a useful mechanism to identify and understand adaptation strategies and their potential consequences in the wider context of resilience planning. the cross-border dimensions of climate impacts could become increasingly important as climate changes intensify. we conclude that our framework will allow for these to be properly accounted for, help to identify new areas of empirical and model-based research and thereby support climate risk management. 18. title: identifying regional drivers of future land-based biodiversity footprints authors: sandra g. marquardt, jonathan c. doelman, vassilis daioglou, andrzej tabeau, ... mark a.j. huijbregts abstract: biodiversity footprints quantify the impacts on ecosystems caused by final consumption in a region, accounting for imports and exports. up to now, footprint analyses have typically been applied to analyze past or present consumption patterns. here, we quantify future land-based biodiversity footprints associated with three diverging shared socio-economic pathways (ssps), using loss in biodiversity intactness index (bii) as an indicator of biodiversity loss. for each ssp, we retrieved socio-economic and land use projections to 2100 from the image-magnet model and calculated associated biodiversity footprints for seven aggregated world regions. we then compared these with the functional diversity component of the biosphere integrity planetary boundary. our results indicate that the global land-based biodiversity impact stays below the boundary (tentatively set at 90% of original bii) in all scenario-year combinations. contrastingly, the per capita boundary is transgressed in one, four and five out of the seven world regions in 2100 for ssp1 (�sustainability�), ssp2 (�middle of the road�) and ssp3 (�regional rivalry�), respectively. these results indicate a strong difference in the biodiversity impact of final consumption between the regions and between ssps. even in the �sustainability� scenario, the per capita biodiversity footprint of consumption in north america needs to be reduced to meet the per capita boundary. thus, policy-making to safeguard the environment would benefit from adopting region-specific strategies: focusing on realizing agricultural efficiency gains in regions with unexploited potential, while focusing on promoting dietary changes towards less animal-based consumption in regions with limited potential for additional efficiency gains. 19. title: agroecological measures and circular economy strategies to ensure sufficient nitrogen for sustainable farming authors: t.g. morais, r.f.m. teixeira, c. lauk, m.c. theurl, ... k.-h. erb abstract: sustainable food systems face trade-offs between demands of low environmental pressures per unit area and requirements of increasing production. organic farming has lower yields than conventional agriculture and requires the introduction of nitrogen (n) fixing legumes in crop rotations. here we perform an integrated assessment of the feasibility of future food systems in terms of land and n availability and the potential for reducing greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions. results show that switching to 100% organic farming without additional measures results in n deficiency. dietary change towards a reduced share of animal products can aggravate n limitations, which can be overcome through the implementation of a combination of agroecological, circular economy and decarbonization strategies. these measures help to recycle and transfer n from grassland. a vegan diet from fully decarbonized conventional production performs similarly as the optimized organic scenario. sustainable food systems hence require measures beyond the agricultural sector. 20. title: the prosocial origin of sustainable behavior: a case study in the ecological domain authors: siegmar otto, pamela pensini, sarah zabel, pablo diaz-siefer, ... alexander neaman abstract: prior research has focused on individual difference variables that predict various prosocial behaviors. this work, however, has neglected to consider the underlying commonalities between the different domains behavior can be performed. in line with other authors we propose that individual difference factors can indicate one�s propensity toward acting prosocially across domains, and that prosocial behaviors also include behaviors that support behavior for the common good. we argue that in order for one�s prosocial propensity to be actualized in a particular domain, a motivator in the form of connectedness to the domain is necessary. this paper examines such a model exemplified in the ecological domain by explaining pro-environmental actions. through two studies (total n = 760) we provide evidence for a mediation model whereby connectedness to nature mediates the positive relation between prosocial propensity and pro-environmental behavior. prosocial propensity was operationalized as altruism (studies 1 and 2) and honesty-humility (study 2). further, study 1 also showed a comparison between participants indicating membership in environmental and humanitarian organizations and non-members. this indicated that prosocial propensity was higher in environmentalists and humanitarians compared to non-members, while connectedness to nature and pro-environmental behaviors were higher only in environmental organization members. these studies provide evidence for the premise of a prosocial propensity being actualized in the ecological domain via connectedness to that domain. 21. title: the effect of industrialization and globalization on domestic land-use: a global resource footprint perspective authors: christian dorninger, henrik von wehrden, fridolin krausmann, martin bruckner, ... david j. abson abstract: land-use activities are increasingly globalized and industrialized. while this contributes to a reduction of pressure on domestic ecosystems in some regions, spillover effects from these processes represent potential obstacles for global sustainable land-use. this contribution scrutinizes the complex global resource nexus of national land-use intensity, international trade of biomass goods, and resource footprints in land-use systems. via a systematic account of the global human appropriation of net primary production (hanpp) and input�output modelling, we demonstrate that with growing income countries reduce their reliance on local renewable resources, while simultaneously consuming more biomass goods produced in other countries requiring higher energy and material inputs. the characteristic 'outsourcing' country appropriates 43% of its domestic net primary production, but net-imports a similar amount (64 gigajoules per capita and year) from other countries and requires energy (11 gj/cap/yr) and material (~400 kg/cap/yr) inputs four to five times higher as the majority of the global population to sustain domestic land-use intensification. this growing societal disconnect from domestic ecological productivity enables a domestic conservation of ecosystems while satisfying growing demand. however, it does not imply a global decoupling of biomass consumption from resource and land requirements. 22. title: when the whole is less than the sum of all parts � tracking global-level impacts of national sustainability initiatives authors: andrea s. downing, grace y. wong, michelle dyer, ana paula aguiar, ... amanda jim�nez aceituno abstract: the united nations� sustainable development goals (sdgs) are described as integrated and indivisible, where sustainability challenges must be addressed across sectors and scales to achieve global-level sustainability. however, sdg monitoring mostly focuses on tracking progress at national-levels, for each goal individually. this approach ignores local and cross-border impacts of national policies and assumes that global-level progress is the sum of national, sector-specific gains. in this study, we investigate effects of reforestation programs in china on countries supplying forest and agricultural commodities to china. using case studies of rubber and palm oil production in southeast asian countries, soy production in brazil and logging in south pacific island states, we investigate cross-sector effects of production for and trade to china in these exporting countries. we use a three-step multi-method approach. 1) we identify distal trade flows and the narratives used to justify them, using a telecoupling framework; 2) we design causal loop diagrams to analyse social-ecological processes of change in our case studies driven by trade to china and 3) we link these processes of change to the sdg framework. we find that sustainability progress in china from reforestation is cancelled out by the deforestation and cross-sectoral impacts supporting this reforestation abroad. narratives of economic development support commodity production abroad through unrealised aims of benefit distribution and assumptions of substitutability of socio-ecological forest systems. across cases, we find the analysed trade supports unambiguous progress on few sdgs only, and we find many mixed effects � where processes that support the achievement of sdgs exist, but are overshadowed by counterproductive processes. our study represents a useful approach for tracking global-level impacts of national sustainability initiatives and provides cross-scale and cross-sectoral lenses through which to identify drivers of unsustainability that can be addressed in the design of effective sustainability policies. 23. title: forest carbon trajectories: consequences of alternative land-use scenarios in new england authors: meghan graham maclean, matthew j. duveneck, joshua plisinski, luca l. morreale, ... jonathan r. thompson abstract: the extent to which forest carbon sequestration can help mitigate climate change will be determined in large part by future land use. here we quantify the impacts of five divergent future land-use scenarios on aboveground forest carbon stocks and fluxes throughout new england. these scenarios, four co-designed with stakeholders from throughout the region and the fifth a continuation of recent trends in land use, were simulated by coupling a land-cover change model with a mechanistic forest growth model to produce estimates of aboveground carbon over 50 years. we tracked the fate of forest carbon removed through harvesting and development using a standard carbon accounting methodology, modified to fit our modeling framework. of the simulated changes in land use, changes in harvesting had the most profound and immediate impacts on carbon stocks and fluxes. in one land-use scenario that included a rapid expansion of harvesting for biomass energy, new england�s forests stopped serving as a net carbon sink and became a net carbon source by 2060. in an alternative scenario, relatively small reductions in harvest intensities (i.e., ~10% less biomass removed), coupled with an increased percent of wood going into longer-term storage, led to substantial reductions in net carbon emissions (909 mmtco2eq) as compared to a continuation of recent trends in land use. however, these projected gains in carbon storage and reduction in emissions from less intense harvesting regimes can only be realized if they are paired with a reduction in the consumption of the timber products, and their replacements, that otherwise would result in additional emissions from leakage and substitution. 24. title: toward a climate mobilities research agenda: intersectionality, immobility, and policy responses authors: georgina cundill, chandni singh, william neil adger, ricardo safra de campos, ... amina maharjan abstract: mobility is a key livelihood and risk management strategy, including in the context of climate change. the covid-19 pandemic has reinforced long standing concerns that migrant populations remain largely overlooked in economic development, adaptation to climate change, and spatial planning. we synthesize evidence across multiple studies that confirms the overwhelming preponderance of in-country and short distance rather than international migration in climate change hotspots in asia and africa. the emerging findings highlight the critical importance of addressing immobility and the intersecting social determinants that influence who can move and who cannot in development policy. this evidence suggests a more focused climate mobilities research agenda that includes understanding multiple drivers of mobility and multi-directional movement; intersecting social factors that determine mobility for some and immobility for others; and the implications for mobility and immobility under climate change and the covid-19 recovery. 25. title: africa's protected areas are brightening at night: a long-term light pollution monitor based on nighttime light imagery authors: zihao zheng, zhifeng wu, yingbiao chen, guanhua guo, ... francesco marinello abstract: as the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation, the core value of protected areas (pas) is to maintain an area�s natural conditions (both day and night) and to restrict human-caused disturbances to biology and the environment. although the value of pas has been universally recognized, light pollution within them is worsening as a result of the widespread use of artificial illumination devices. previous studies have focused on light pollution in pas and evaluated light radiation using nighttime light imagery. however, given the scale and span of these studies (national scale and over short periods), pa light pollution research should be advanced further. in this paper, we conducted long-term (1992�2018) monitoring and evaluation of light pollution in african pas using aligned multi-sensor ntl data. the results showed that 1) africa pas were impacted by increasingly severe artificial lights during 1992�2018, with all three light indices showing an accelerating increasing trend. 2) the number of light-polluted pas also rapidly increased, with more than 80% of pas experiencing aggravated light pollution as of 2018. different types of pas had heterogeneous light pollution, which penetrates indiscriminately into all pa regulation levels. 4) light pollution in african pas was divided into three types, including outside invasion, internal sources, and mixed pollution. 5) human activity intensity surrounding the pas was highly correlated with light pollution within them, with a maximum effect distance of approximately 245 km. this paper provides new approaches for understanding the patterns of light pollution within pas, and is a valuable reference for future pa planning. 26. title: what future for primary aluminium production in a decarbonizing economy? authors: julien pedneault, guillaume majeau-bettez, volker krey, manuele margni abstract: aluminium is an energy intensive material with an environmental footprint strongly dependent on the electricity mix consumed by the smelting process. this study models prospective environmental impacts of primary aluminium production according to different integrated assessment modeling scenarios building on shared socioeconomic pathways and their climate change mitigation scenarios. results project a global average carbon intensity ranging between 8.6 and 18.0 kg co2 eq/kg in 2100, compared to 18.3 kg co2 eq/kg at present, that could be further reduced under mitigation scenarios. co-benefits with other environmental indicators are observed. scaling aluminium production impacts to the global demand shows total emission between 1250 and 1590 gt co2 eq for baseline scenarios by 2050 while absolute decoupling is only achievable with stringent climate policy changing drastically the electricity mix. achieving larger emission reductions will require circular strategies that go beyond primary material production itself and involve other stakeholders along the aluminium value chain. 27. title: narratives, narrations and social structure in environmental governance authors: larissa koch, philipp gorris, claudia pahl-wostl abstract: avoiding further aggravation of the consequences of global environmental change remains a complex governance challenge. social relational structure among actors plays a key role for enhancing the capacity of collaborative approaches to environmental governance. we present an encompassing conceptual framework to advance understanding of the mechanisms that shape dynamics in environmental governance entities. narrative theory is integrated with insights on group dynamics grounded in social network theory to contextualize local social complexities in governance processes. we assume that social relational structure between actors, and narrations they tell, co-produce narratives and dynamics at the group level. three important mechanisms that influence dynamics are described: (1) the interplay between collaborative relationships and narrative congruence between individual actors, (2) the characteristics of actors, and (3) the actors� embeddedness in the wider social structure. a set of testable hypotheses on the interplay between narration, narratives and social relational structure in environmental governance processes is presented. we conclude by discussing why we regard this framework useful to study local and regional governance entities in the context of addressing global environmental change. 28. title: greenhouse gas emissions from mediterranean agriculture: evidence of unbalanced research efforts and knowledge gaps authors: eduardo aguilera, carolina reyes-palomo, cipriano d�az-gaona, alberto sanz-cobena, ... vicente rodr�guez-est�vez abstract: designing effective mitigation policies for greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions from agriculture requires understanding the mechanisms by which management practices affect emissions in different agroclimatic conditions. agricultural ghg emissions and carbon sequestration potentials have been extensively studied in the mediterranean biome, which is a biodiversity hot spot that is highly vulnerable to environmental changes. however, the absolute magnitude of ghg emissions and the extent to which research efforts match these emissions in each production system, are unknown. here, we estimated ghg emissions and potential carbon sinks associated with crop and livestock production systems in the mediterranean biome, covering 31 countries and assessing approximately 10,000 emission items. the results were then combined with a bibliometric assessment of 797 research publications to compare emissions estimates obtained with research efforts for each of the studied items. although the magnitude of ghg emissions from crop production and the associated carbon sequestration potential (261 tg co2eq yr"1) were nearly half of those from livestock production (367 tg co2eq yr"1), mitigation research efforts were largely focused on the former. as a result, the relative research intensity, which relates the number of publications to the magnitude of emissions, is nearly one order of magnitude higher for crop production than for livestock production (2.6 and 0.4 papers tg co2eq"1, respectively). moreover, this mismatch is even higher when crop and livestock types are studied separately, which indicates major research gaps associated with grassland and many strategic crop types, such as fruit tree orchards, fiber crops, roots and tubers. most life cycle assessment studies do not consider carbon sequestration, although this single process has the highest magnitude in terms of annual co2eq. in addition, these studies employ tier 1 ipcc factors, which are not suited for use in mediterranean environments. our analytical results show that a strategic plan is required to extend on-site field ghg measurements to the mediterranean biome. such a plan needs to be cocreated among stakeholders and should be based on refocusing research efforts to ghg balance components that have been afforded less attention. in addition, the outcomes of mediterranean field studies should be integrated into life cycle assessment-based carbon footprint analyses in order to avoid misleading conclusions. 29. title: legume dreams: the contested futures of sustainable plant-based food systems in europe authors: george cusworth, tara garnett, jamie lorimer abstract: with the intensification of agriculture, the simplification of crop rotations, and the rise in demand for meat, dairy and cereal products, legume production and consumption are at an historic low in europe. but as the environmental consequences of agriculture (biodiversity loss, high greenhouse gas emissions, water pollution) and the health outcomes of modern diets (heart disease, cancer, diabetes, obesity) become better known, so great and varied hopes are being expressed about the future role of legumes in the food system. this paper catalogues and scrutinises these hopes, mapping the promissory narratives now orbiting around legumes. it identifies six food futures, each of which is made possible through the greater use of legumes in various production, processing, marketing and consumption contexts. these promissory narratives are theorised as contrasting responses to three major areas of contestation in the food systems literature. namely i) the sustainability of livestock management, ii) the role of technology in different visions of the �good diet�, and iii) the merits of different models for how to make agricultural management more sustainable. it identifies the promiscuity of legumes � in terms of the range of food futures they permit � before distilling three points of consensus amongst advocates of the potential of legumes. these points of consensus relate to their nitrogen fixing capacity, their high protein content, and their long-standing historical role in the context of european food and farming. this map of legume dreams serves to guide deliberations amongst researchers, policymakers and industry stakeholders about the futures of plant-based food in europe. 30. title: knowledge integration in sustainability governance through science-based actor networks authors: ulrike zeigermann abstract: understanding how science, technology and innovation can best help to accelerate progress in achieving sustainable development remains a grand challenge for researchers and practitioners. in the context of the global consultation process for preparing a post-2015 sustainable development agenda, various science-based actor networks have emerged, aiming to translate research into political decision-making and to inform transformations towards sustainability. over the last years, these networks seem to have taken an ever-growing role in structuring the science-policy interface in global sustainability governance. the question arises, however, how they understand and organize �scientific knowledge integration� in sustainability politics. this study offers a structured comparison of twelve global science-based actor networks engaged in the implementation of the sustainable development goals. it shows that these networks use two types of strategies to foster scientific knowledge integration in sustainability governance. a new framework emerges, in which each strategy corresponds to two main approaches of scientific knowledge integration: the entrepreneurial strategy generally seeks to advance advice-oriented and solution-oriented knowledge processes, while assessment-oriented and learning-oriented processes in scientific knowledge integration are mainly promoted through a mediating strategy. 31. title: incorporating blue carbon sequestration benefits into sub-national climate policies authors: l.m. wedding, m. moritsch, g. verutes, k. arkema, ... a.l. strong abstract: the emissions reduction pledges made by individual countries through the 2015 paris agreement represent the current global commitment to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in the face of the enduring climate crisis. natural lands carbon sequestration and storage are critical for successful pathways to global decarbonization (i.e., as a negative emissions technology). coastal vegetated habitats maintain carbon sequestration rates exceeding forest sequestration rates on a per unit area basis by nearly two orders of magnitude. these blue carbon habitats and their associated carbon sequestration benefits are vulnerable to losses from land-use change and sea-level rise. incorporation of blue carbon habitats in climate change policy is one strategy for both maintaining these habitats and conserving significant carbon sequestration capabilities. previous policy assessments have found the potential for incorporation of coastal carbon sequestration in national-level policies, yet there has � to date � been little inclusion of blue carbon in the national-scale implementation of paris commitments. recently, sub-national jurisdictions have gained attention as models for pathways to decarbonization. however, few previous studies have examined sub-national level policy opportunities for operationalizing blue carbon into climate decision-making. california is uniquely poised to integrate benefits from blue carbon into its coastal planning and management and its suite of climate mitigation policies. here, we evaluated legal authorities and policy contexts addressing sequestration specifically from blue carbon habitats. we synthesized the progressive action in california�s approaches to mitigate carbon emissions including statutory, regulatory, and non-regulatory opportunities to incorporate blue carbon ecosystem service information into state- and local-level management decisions. to illustrate how actionable blue carbon information can be produced for use in decision-making, we conducted a spatial analysis of blue carbon sequestration in several locations in california across multiple agencies and management contexts. we found that the average market values of carbon sequestration services in 2100 ranged from $7,730 to $44,000 per hectare and that the social cost of carbon sequestration value was 1.3 to 2.7 times the market value. we also demonstrated that restoration of small areas with high sequestration rates can be comparable to the sequestration of existing marshes. our results illustrate how accessible information about carbon sequestration in coastal habitats can be directly incorporated into existing policy frameworks at the sub-national scale. the incorporation of blue carbon sequestration benefits into sub-national climate policies can serve as a model for the development of future policy approaches for negative emissions technologies, with consequences for the success of the paris agreement and science-based decarbonization by mid-century. 32. title: trade-offs between physical risk and economic reward affect fishers� vulnerability to changing storminess authors: nigel c. sainsbury, peter w. schuhmann, rachel a. turner, gaetano grilli, ... stephen d. simpson abstract: climate change-driven alterations in storm frequency and intensity threaten the wellbeing of billions of people who depend on fisheries for food security and livelihoods. weather conditions shape vulnerability to both loss of life and reduced fishing opportunities through their influence on fishers' daily participation decisions. the trade-off between physical risk at sea and the economic rewards of continued fishing under adverse weather conditions is a critical component of fishers� trip decisions but is poorly understood. we employed a stated choice experiment with skippers from a temperate mixed-species fishery in southwest england to empirically assess how fishers trade off the risks from greater wind speed and wave height with the benefits of expected catch and prices. technical fishing and socio-economic data were collected for individual fishers to identify the factors influencing trade-off decisions. fishers preferred increased wind speed and wave height up to a threshold, after which they became increasingly averse to worsening conditions. fishing gear, vessel length, presence of crew, vessel ownership, age, recent fishing success and reliance on fishing income all influenced the skippers� decisions to go to sea. this study provides a first insight into the socio-economic, environmental, and technical fishing factors that can influence the sensitivity of individual fishers to changing storminess. these insights can help to inform fisheries climate vulnerability assessments and the development of adaptation measures. 33. title: socio-economic conditions for satisfying human needs at low energy use: an international analysis of social provisioning authors: jefim vogel, julia k. steinberger, daniel w. o'neill, william f. lamb, jaya krishnakumar abstract: meeting human needs at sustainable levels of energy use is fundamental for avoiding catastrophic climate change and securing the well-being of all people. in the current political-economic regime, no country does so. here, we assess which socio-economic conditions might enable societies to satisfy human needs at low energy use, to reconcile human well-being with climate mitigation. using a novel analytical framework alongside a novel multivariate regression-based moderation approach and data for 106 countries, we analyse how the relationship between energy use and six dimensions of human need satisfaction varies with a wide range of socio-economic factors relevant to the provisioning of goods and services ('provisioning factors'). we find that factors such as public service quality, income equality, democracy, and electricity access are associated with higher need satisfaction and lower energy requirements (�beneficial provisioning factors�). conversely, extractivism and economic growth beyond moderate levels of affluence are associated with lower need satisfaction and greater energy requirements (�detrimental provisioning factors�). our results suggest that improving beneficial provisioning factors and abandoning detrimental ones could enable countries to provide sufficient need satisfaction at much lower, ecologically sustainable levels of energy use. however, as key pillars of the required changes in provisioning run contrary to the dominant political-economic regime, a broader transformation of the economic system may be required to prioritise, and organise provisioning for, the satisfaction of human needs at low energy use. 34. title: public concern about, and desire for research into, the human health effects of marine plastic pollution: results from a 15-country survey across europe and australia authors: sophie m.c. davison, mathew p. white, sabine pahl, tim taylor, ... lora e. fleming abstract: marine plastic pollution is caused by humans and has become ubiquitous in the marine environment. despite the widely acknowledged ecological consequences, the scientific evidence regarding detrimental human health impacts is currently debated, and there is no substantive evidence surrounding public opinion with respect to marine plastic pollution and human health. results from a 15-country survey (n = 15,179) found that both the european and australian public were highly concerned about the potential human health impacts of marine plastic pollution, and strongly supported the funding of research which aims to better understand its health/wellbeing implications. multi-level modelling revealed that these perceptions varied across socio-demographic factors (e.g. gender), pol#$%-.0479:;=ef��ʻ�ʻʘ�zf^qc<.h1]ch1]c5�ojqj^jh1]ch1]ch�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(hl%�5�cjojqj^jajh 2e5�cjojqj^jaj#h1]ch1]c5�cjojqj^jaj h��5�cjojqj^jajo(h1]c5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj 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