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volume 138, issue 1, february 2023
1. title: when should you adjust standard errors for clustering?
authors: alberto abadie, susan athey, guido w imbens, jeffrey m wooldridge
abstract: clustered standard errors, with clusters defined by factors such as geography, are widespread in empirical research in economics and many other disciplines. formally, clustered standard errors adjust for the correlations induced by sampling the outcome variable from a data-generating process with unobserved cluster-level components. however, the standard econometric framework for clustering leaves important questions unanswered: (i) why do we adjust standard errors for clustering in some ways but not others, for example, by state but not by gender, and in observational studies but not in completely randomized experiments? (ii) is the clustered variance estimator valid if we observe a large fraction of the clusters in the population? (iii) in what settings does the choice of whether and how to cluster make a difference? we address these and other questions using a novel framework for clustered inference on average treatment effects. in addition to the common sampling component, the new framework incorporates a design component that accounts for the variability induced on the estimator by the treatment assignment mechanism. we show that, when the number of clusters in the sample is a nonnegligible fraction of the number of clusters in the population, conventional clustered standard errors can be severely inflated, and propose new variance estimators that correct for this bias.
2. title: the evolution of access to public accommodations in the united states
authors: lisa d cook, maggie e c jones, trevon d logan, david ros�
abstract: the economic analysis of racial discrimination in public accommodations is remarkably limited. to study this issue, we construct a national data set of nondiscriminatory establishments from the negro motorist green books, a travel guide published from 1936 to 1966 to aid black americans in finding nondiscriminatory retail and service establishments. we document patterns in the geographic spread and evolution of green book establishments, as well as the correlates of green book presence. we find that economic and social measures, as well as state laws relating to racial discrimination and antidiscrimination, were correlated with the provision of nondiscriminatory services. we then use the green book data to test whether market conditions and white consumer discrimination led businesses to bar black customers prior to the civil rights act of 1964. we use plausibly exogenous variation from white world war ii casualties and black migration patterns to isolate the effect of a change in the racial composition of consumers on the growth of nondiscriminatory businesses. we find that the share of nondiscriminatory establishments grew faster in locations with larger increases in the share of the black population, but the magnitudes were small. these results highlight the importance of federal legislation in ending racial discrimination in public accommodations.
3. title: increasing the demand for workers with a criminal record
authors: zo� cullen, will dobbie, mitchell hoffman
abstract: we experimentally test several approaches to increasing the demand for workers with a criminal record on a nationwide staffing platform by addressing potential downside risk and productivity concerns. the staffing platform asked hiring managers to make a series of hypothetical hiring decisions that affected whether workers with a criminal record could accept their jobs in the future. we find that 39% of businesses in our sample are willing to work with individuals with a criminal record at baseline, which rises to over 50% when businesses are offered crime and safety insurance, a single performance review, or a limited background check covering just the past year. wage subsidies can achieve similar increases but at a substantially higher cost. based on our findings, the staffing platform relaxed the criminal background check requirement and offered crime and safety insurance to interested businesses.
4. title: improving workplace climate in large corporations: a clustered randomized intervention
authors: sule alan, gozde corekcioglu, matthias sutter
abstract: we evaluate the impact of a training program aimed at improving the relational atmosphere in the workplace. the program encourages prosocial behavior and the use of professional language, focusing primarily on leaders� behavior and leader-subordinate interactions. we implement this program using a clustered randomized design involving over 3,000 headquarters employees of 20 large corporations in turkey. we evaluate the program with respect to employee separation, pro- and antisocial behavior, the prevalence of support networks, and perceived workplace climate. we find that treated firms have a lower likelihood of employee separation at the leadership level, fewer employees lacking professional and personal help, and denser, less segregated support networks. we also find that employees in treated corporations are less inclined to engage in toxic competition, exhibit higher reciprocity toward each other, and report higher workplace satisfaction and a more collegial environment. the program�s success in improving leader-subordinate relationships emerges as a likely mechanism to explain these results. treated subordinates report higher professionalism and empathy in their leaders and are more likely to consider their leaders as professional support providers.
5. title: asset specificity of nonfinancial firms
authors: amir kermani, yueran ma
abstract: we develop a new data set to study asset specificity among nonfinancial firms. our data cover the liquidation values of each category of assets on firms� balance sheets and provides information across major industries. first, we find that nonfinancial firms have high asset specificity. for example, the liquidation value of fixed assets is 35% of the net book value in the average industry. second, we analyze the determinants of asset specificity and document that assets� physical attributes (e.g., mobility, durability, and customization) play a crucial role. third, we investigate several implications. consistent with theories of investment irreversibility, high asset specificity is associated with less disinvestment and stronger effects of uncertainty on investment activities. we also find that the increasing prevalence of intangible assets has not significantly reduced firms� liquidation values.
6. title: memory and probability
authors: pedro bordalo, john j conlon, nicola gennaioli, spencer y kwon, andrei shleifer
abstract: in many economic decisions, people estimate probabilities, such as the likelihood that a risk materializes or that a job applicant will be a productive employee, by retrieving experiences from memory. we model this process based on two established regularities of selective recall: similarity and interference. we show that the similarity structure of a hypothesis and the way it is described (not just its objective probability) shape the recall of experiences and thus probability assessments. the model accounts for and reconciles a variety of empirical findings, such as overestimation of unlikely events when these are cued versus neglect of noncued ones, the availability heuristic, the representativeness heuristic, conjunction and disjunction fallacies, and over- versus underreaction to information in different situations. the model yields several new predictions, for which we find strong experimental support.
7. title: economic agents as imperfect problem solvers
authors: cosmin ilut, rosen valchev
abstract: we develop a novel bounded rationality model of imperfect reasoning as the interaction between automatic (system 1) and analytical (system 2) thinking. in doing so, we formalize the empirical consensus of cognitive psychology using a structural, constrained-optimal economic framework of mental information acquisition about the unknown optimal policy function. a key result is that agents reason less (more) when facing usual (unusual) states of the world, producing state- and history-dependent behavior. our application is an otherwise standard incomplete-markets model with no a priori behavioral biases. the ergodic distribution of actions and beliefs is characterized by endogenous learning traps, where locally stable state dynamics generate familiar regions of the state space within which behavior appears to follow memory-based heuristics. this results in endogenous behavioral biases that have many empirically desirable properties: the marginal propensity to consume is high even for unconstrained agents, hand-to-mouth status is more frequent and persistent, and there is more wealth inequality than in the standard model.
8. title: the long-term effects of universal preschool in boston
authors: guthrie gray-lobe, parag a pathak, christopher r walters
abstract: we use admissions lotteries to estimate the effects of large-scale public preschool in boston on college-going, college preparation, standardized test scores, and behavioral outcomes. preschool enrollment boosts college attendance as well as sat test taking and high school graduation. preschool also decreases high school disciplinary measures including juvenile incarceration, but has no detectable effect on state achievement test scores. an analysis of subgroups shows that effects on college enrollment, sat-taking, and disciplinary outcomes are larger for boys than for girls. our findings illustrate possibilities for large-scale modern, public preschool and highlight the importance of measuring long-term and non�test score outcomes in evaluating the effectiveness of education programs.
9. title: inflammatory political campaigns and racial bias in policing
authors: pauline grosjean, federico masera, hasin yousaf
abstract: can political rallies affect the behavior of law enforcement officers toward racial minorities? using data from 35 million traffic stops, we show that the probability that a stopped driver is black increases by 5.74% after a trump rally during his 2015�2016 campaign. the effect is immediate, specific to black drivers, lasts for up to 60 days after the rally, and is not justified by changes in driver behavior. the effects are significantly larger among law enforcement officers whose estimated racial bias is higher at baseline, in areas that score higher on present-day measures of racial resentment, those that experienced more racial violence during the jim crow era, and in former slave-holding counties. mentions of racial issues in trump speeches, whether explicit or implicit, exacerbate the effect of a trump rally among officers with higher estimated racial bias.
10. title: new deal, new patriots: how 1930s government spending boosted patriotism during world war ii
authors: bruno caprettini, hans-joachim voth
abstract: we demonstrate an important complementarity between patriotism and public-good provision. after 1933, the new deal led to an unprecedented expansion of the u.s. federal government�s role. those who benefited from social spending were markedly more patriotic during world war ii: they bought more war bonds, volunteered more, and, as soldiers, won more medals. this pattern was new�world war i volunteering did not show the same geography of patriotism. we match military service records with the 1940 census to show that this pattern holds at the individual level. using geographical variation, we exploit two instruments to suggest that the effect is causal: droughts and congressional committee representation predict more new deal agricultural support, as well as bond buying, volunteering, and medals.
11. title: top wealth in america: new estimates under heterogeneous returns
authors: matthew smith, owen zidar, eric zwick
abstract: this article uses administrative tax data to estimate top wealth in the united states. we assemble new data that link people to their sources of capital income and develop new methods to estimate the degree of return heterogeneity within asset classes. disaggregated fixed-income data reveal that rich individuals earn much more of their interest income in higher-yielding forms and have much greater exposure to credit risk. consequently, in recent years, the interest rate on fixed income at the top is approximately 3.5 times higher than the average. we value the population of u.s. firms using firm-level characteristics and apportion this wealth using firm-owner links. we combine this new data on fixed income and pass-through business returns with refined estimates of c-corporation equity, housing, and pension wealth to deliver new capitalized wealth estimates that build upon the methods of saez and zucman (2016a). from 1989 to 2016, the top 1%, 0.1%, and 0.01% wealth shares increased by 6.6, 4.6, and 2.9 percentage points, respectively, to 33.7%, 15.7%, and 7.1%. overall, although we estimate a large degree of return heterogeneity, accounting for this heterogeneity does not change the fundamental story for top wealth shares and their growth�wealth inequality is high and has risen substantially over recent decades.
12. title: corruption in customs
authors: cyril chalendard, ana m fernandes, gael raballand, bob rijkers
abstract: this article presents a new methodology to detect corruption in customs and applies it to madagascar�s main port. manipulation of assignment of import declarations to inspectors is identified by measuring deviations from random assignment prescribed by official rules. deviant declarations are more at risk of tax evasion, yet less likely to be deemed fraudulent by inspectors, who also clear them faster. an intervention in which inspector assignment was delegated to a third party validates our approach, but also triggered a novel manifestation of manipulation that rejuvenated systemic corruption. tax revenue losses associated with the corruption scheme are approximately 3% of total taxes collected and are highly concentrated among a select few inspectors and brokers.
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