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��ࡱ�>�� oq����n��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� �r��;bjbj��2vx�x��3 ���������������������8tk�(nl���������m�m�m�m�m�m�m$�o�6r@�m�������m����4�m�������m��m�������v�;��a��m�m0(nvr:vr�/vr��j���������m�m;����(n������������������������������������������������������������������������vr���������� �: science and public policy volume 39, issue 2, march 2012 1. title: the role of fta in responding to grand challenges: a new approach for sti policy? authors: mark boden, ron johnston, and fabiana scapolo abstract: the fourth international seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis (fta) held in may 2011, focussed on the need and potential of fta to address disruptive transformations in global and national structures, systems, rules and practices in response to grand societal challenges. this introductory paper provides an overview of selected conference contributions and the perspectives in which they address key issues in the development and implementation of fta in relation to these challenges. these papers examine the reorientation of research and innovation systems and the integration of fta within them. new approaches to fta are also examined, with lessons drawn from the experiences at both national and international levels in the application of fta. 2. title: orienting european innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that fta can play authors: cristiano cagnin, effie amanatidou, and michael keenan abstract: a strong research and innovation policy discourse has emerged in recent years around the need to address �grand challenges�, particularly at eu level. this paper highlights the contributions that future-oriented technology analysis (fta) might make to orienting innovation processes towards grand challenges. it takes a �systems of innovation� approach and focuses on the structural and functional aspects of such systems to consider the relevant roles of fta. in this context, fta can generate �informing�, �structuring� and �capacity-building� benefits while enabling a shift in innovation foci towards grand challenges. however, fta could be better exploited to deliver its structuring and capacity-building benefits, which are hardly recognised in the eu�s existing innovation policy instruments, in order to effectively reorient the eu�s innovation systems towards grand challenges. 3. title: coping with a fast-changing world: towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis authors: k. matthias weber, jennifer cassingena harper, totti k�nn�l�, and vicente carabias barcel� abstract: transformations linked to disruptive events are causing a shift in future-oriented technology analysis (fta) activities from individual large-scale foresight actions to smaller in-house exercises and capacity building. the reasons are manifold relating to the need for an even tighter embedding of fta in policy-making in a fast-changing complex environment as well as to internal drivers for novel forms of future intelligence to support coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organisations. this paper identifies three ideal types: external fta services, the institutionalisation of fta, and fta networks, whilst recognising that in practice these types are complementary. in empirical terms this requires further investigation, in order to understand how different combinations of activities actually operate in their respective decision-making contexts. it is important to improve our understanding of how far institutionalised fta can form part of customised solutions for building capacity to handle disruptions. 4. title: orienting international science cooperation to meet global �grand challenges� authors: michael keenan, paul cutler, john marks, richard meylan, carthage smith, and emilia koivisto abstract: over the coming decades, science will play a key role in society�s response to emerging global �grand challenges�. the agenda-setting, coordination and conduct of science, and the ways in which scientific knowledge is diffused and used, are therefore critical. increasingly, such issues need to be framed at a global level, reflecting both the international nature of science itself and the scale of the challenges it seeks to address. longer-term perspectives must also be incorporated to reflect the time horizons of key global challenges and the uncertainties involved in future global governance regimes. foresight offers a means to explore these dimensions of science. the international council for science (icsu) has been applying foresight as a central component of its strategic planning. this paper describes the most recent icsu exercise, which has explored how two decades hence international collaboration in science could foster progress in science and address global challenges. 5. title: innovation policy roadmapping as a systemic instrument for forward-looking policy design authors: toni ahlqvist, ville valovirta, and torsti loikkanen abstract: the systemic characteristics of science, technology and innovation policies have been much discussed recently. this paper presents innovation policy roadmapping (iprm) as a methodological framework for linking r&d results to systemic policy contexts and to forward-looking policy design. the paper explores the methodological background of the iprm method and outlines its policy rationale. it also illustrates iprm with two case studies from australia and finland. the case studies reflect on how the policy perspectives can be constructed in a dynamic context of societal drivers, solution and market development, and enabling technologies. the paper concludes by assessing the policy implications of the iprm approach. 6. title: embedding foresight in transnational research programming authors: totti k�nn�l� and karel haegeman abstract: the complexity of transnational research programming and the requisite large-scale stakeholder engagement set a major managerial challenge: how to prepare, run and evaluate such activities in an effective, efficient and appropriate as well as transparent, open and inclusive manner. to address such co-ordination challenges we specify dimensions of transnational, vertical, horizontal and temporal co-ordination and apply them to three cases of foresight processes in connection with transnational research programming. this provides some evidence on a potentially significant role for foresight in facilitating and integrating different functions of programming but also shows major challenges in foresight design and management, which we address by way of elaborating guiding foresight principles of scalability, modularity and flexibility. we also consider the potential role of foresight in joint programming in europe and in transnational research programming elsewhere. 7. title: on concepts and methods in horizon scanning: lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues authors: effie amanatidou, maurits butter, vicente carabias, totti k�nn�l�, miriam leis, ozcan saritas, petra schaper-rinkel, and victor van rij abstract: future-oriented technology analysis methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action which will help to better prepare policy- and decision-makers in today�s complex and inter-dependent environments. this paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the scanning for emerging science and technology issues project. a comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation the needs of policy-makers if they are to identify areas in which policy needs to be formulated. this paper suggests that the selection of the best scanning approaches and methods is subject to contextual and content issues. at the same time, there are certain issues which characterise horizon scanning processes, methods and results that should be kept in mind by both practitioners and policy-makers. 8. title: facing the future: scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning authors: totti k�nn�l�, ahti salo, cristiano cagnin, vicente carabias, and eeva vilkkumaa abstract: in this paper, we discuss key issues in harnessing horizon scanning to shape systemic policies, particularly in the light of the foresight exercise �facing the future: time for the eu to meet global challenges� which was carried out for the bureau of european policy advisors. this exercise illustrates how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues; the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters; and the interpretation of resulting clusters as an important step towards the coordinated development of joint policy measures. in order to achieve such objectives, horizon scanning can benefit from methods of multi-criteria decision-making and network analysis for prioritizing, clustering and combining issues. furthermore, these methods provide support for traceability, which in turn contributes to the enhanced transparency and legitimacy of foresight. 9. title: fraunhofer future markets: from global challenges to dedicated, technological, collaborative research projects authors: kerstin cuhls, alexander bunkowski, and lothar behlau abstract: one urgent mission for european research is to focus on the grand challenges of our time. we discuss how this mission was incorporated into a fraunhofer corporate programme that takes on global challenges by stimulating collaborative research projects across knowledge domains. fraunhofer�s mission is to conduct innovation-oriented research for the benefit of private and public enterprises as well as society in general. as a decentralised organisation, fraunhofer�s strategic r&d planning predominantly takes place at the level of its 60 institutes and its six groups of institutes, each with similar technological scope. at the corporate level, fraunhofer complements these strategic planning activities with a process to identify and strategically develop research themes across its institutes. in this paper, we address the question of global challenges, their definition, why and how fraunhofer can best direct its overarching research topics towards solutions for some of the global challenges. 10. title: challenges in communicating the outcomes of a foresight study to advise decision-makers on policy and strategy authors: claudio chauke nehme, marcio de miranda santos, lelio fellows filho, and gilda massari coelho abstract: this paper addresses the challenges of communicating the results of a strategic foresight exercise which aimed to support decision-makers in their activities, providing for increased confidence and credibility throughout the process. foresight recommendations are shaped and derived according to the nature and complexity of the themes being considered, the level of stakeholder participation and, quite frequently, the communication skills of those managing the process. efforts towards better communication among participants are decisive for successful foresight exercises. this paper stresses that the intangibles are important outcomes, as well as the importance of promoting out-of-the-box thinking during the exercise. lessons learnt are presented, as well as a case study developed by the center for strategic management and studies (cgee), bras�lia. 11. title: head in the clouds and feet on the ground: research priority setting in china authors: mats benner, li liu, and sylvia schwaag serger abstract: few countries have increased their expenditure on r&d as rapidly as has china in recent years. however, so far, little academic attention has been paid to how decisions are taken and priorities set in chinese research policy. this paper analyzes priority-setting in china's recent research policy. we find that china's research policy is driven by a variety of different, and sometimes conflicting, objectives, leading to a multitude of often overlapping initiatives. secondly, mission- and excellence-driven research dominates over institution- and capacity-building and diffusion objectives. thirdly, the process of setting research priorities is characterized by a combination of central goal articulation�top-down decision-making�and decentralization, deliberation and stakeholder consultation�bottom-up mechanisms. aside from contributing to the understanding of china's research and innovation policy and system, this paper provides insights into policy change in china more generally and also into the processes which shape priority-setting in transition economies. 12. title: national, sectoral and technological innovation systems: the case of taiwanese pharmaceutical biotechnology and agricultural biotechnology innovation systems (1945�2000) authors: chao-chen chung abstract: this paper explores the dynamics of the configuration of the national, the sectoral and the technological innovation systems and defines the configuration of these three innovation systems as the national, sectoral and technological innovation systems (nstiss). through comparing the taiwanese pharmaceutical biotechnology and agricultural biotechnology innovation systems we find that even within the same nation different nstiss reveal different dynamics, in terms of actors and networks, the application of technology and knowledge and institutions. we conclude that the new research, technology, development and innovation policies should be customized according to the differing dynamics of the nstiss.     !# 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