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volume 132, issue 2, february 2024
1. title: the life cycle of products: evidence and implications.
authors: argente, david; lee, munseob; moreira, sara.
abstract: we document that sales of individual products decline steadily throughout most of the product life cycle. products quickly become obsolete as they face competition from newer products sold by competing firms and the same firm. we build a dynamic model that highlights an innovation-obsolescence cycle, where firms need to introduce new products to grow; otherwise, their portfolios become obsolete as rivals introduce their own new products. by introducing new products, however, firms accelerate the decline of their own existing products, further depressing their sales. this mechanism has sizable implications for quantifying economic growth and the impact of innovation policies.
2. title: foreign shocks as granular fluctuations.
authors: di giovanni, julian; levchenko, andrei a.; mejean, isabelle.
abstract: this paper uses a dataset covering the universe of french firm-level value-added, imports, and exports and a quantitative multicountry heterogeneous firm model to study the propagation of foreign shocks to the domestic economy. foreign shocks are transmitted primarily through large firms as they are the most likely to trade internationally. at the micro level, the majority of the gdp impact of foreign shocks is accounted for by the "foreign granular residual," a statistic capturing larger firms' greater responsiveness to foreign shocks. at the macro level, firm heterogeneity attenuates the gdp impact of foreign shocks relative to a homogeneous firm counterfactual.
3. title: the global distribution of college graduate quality.
authors: martellini, paolo; schoellman, todd; sockin, jason.
abstract: we measure college graduate quality�the average human capital of a college's graduates�for graduates from 2,800 colleges in 48 countries. graduates of colleges in the richest countries have 50% more human capital than graduates of colleges in the poorest countries. migration reinforces these differences: emigrants from poorer countries are highly positively selected on human capital. finally, we show that these stocks and flows matter for growth and development by showing that college graduate quality predicts the share of a college's students who become inventors, engage in entrepreneurship, and become top executives both within and across countries.
4. title: piercing through opacity: relationships and credit card lending to consumers and small businesses during normal times and the covid-19 crisis.
authors: berger, allen n.; bouwman, christa h. s.; norden, lars; roman, raluca a.; udell, gregory f.; wang, teng.
abstract: we build a bridge between relationship lending and transactions lending�investigating relationship effects on contract terms for credit cards, a relatively pure transactions-lending technology. using more than 1 million accounts, we find that during normal times, consumers with relationships obtain better terms but small businesses with relationships do not. both groups obtain improved terms during covid-19, consistent with intertemporal smoothing�relationship borrowers obtain more favorable terms during crises, paid for by worse terms in normal times. among other findings, cares act impediments to reporting consumer delinquencies to credit bureaus, designed to protect customers, reduced informational value of credit scores, penalizing safer consumers.
5. title: the human capital�reproductive capital trade-off in marriage market matching.
authors: low, corinne.
abstract: throughout the twentieth century, the relationship between women's human capital and men's income was nonmonotonic: while college-educated women married richer spouses than high school�educated women, graduate-educated women married poorer spouses than college-educated women. this can be rationalized by a bidimensional matching framework where women's human capital is negatively correlated with another valuable trait: fertility, or reproductive capital. such a model predicts nonmonotonicity in income matching with a sufficiently high income distribution of men. a simulation of the model using us census fertility and income data shows that it can also predict the recent transition to more assortative matching as desired family sizes have fallen.
6. title: the finance uncertainty multiplier.
authors: alfaro, iv�n; bloom, nicholas; lin, xiaoji.
abstract: we show how real and financial frictions amplify, prolong, and propagate the negative impact of uncertainty shocks. we use a novel instrumentation strategy to address endogeneity in estimating the impact of uncertainty by exploiting differential firm exposure to exchange rate, policy, and energy price volatility. we show that financially constrained firms cut investment more than unconstrained firms following an uncertainty shock. we then build a general equilibrium heterogeneous firms model with real and financial frictions, finding that financial frictions (i) amplify uncertainty shocks by doubling their impact on output; (ii) increase persistence by doubling the duration of the drop; and (iii) propagate uncertainty shocks by spreading their impact onto financial variables.
7. title: beyond the balance sheet model of banking: implications for bank regulation and monetary policy.
authors: buchak, greg; matvos, gregor; piskorski, tomasz; seru, amit.
abstract: we empirically document two adjustment margins that are usually absent from the predominant "bank balance sheet lending" view of financial intermediation. for the shadow bank substitution margin, shadow banks substitute for traditional banks among loans that are easily sold. for the balance sheet retention margin, banks switch between balance sheet lending and selling loans based on their balance sheet strength. estimates from a structural model show that these margins significantly shape policy responses, dampening the effect of capital requirements on lending whose costs are borne by wealthier borrowers. secondary-market disruptions such as quantitative easing have significantly larger impacts on lending than capital requirements.
8. title: when it rains it pours: cascading uncertainty shocks.
authors: diercks, anthony m.; hsu, alex; tamoni, andrea.
abstract: the effects of uncertainty shocks are superadditive. on the basis of local projections, we find that the combination of nearby positive shocks can be multiple times more powerful than the sum of their stand-alone effects. in a standard new keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, uncertainty shocks are proven to be superadditive only when the model is solved under fourth- (or higher-)order perturbation. the fourth-order solution unlocks the fourth derivative of marginal utility, "edginess," which is key to generating stronger reactions to multiple risks and superadditivity. intuitively, an agent already bearing one risk is less willing to bear another in the presence of edginess.
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