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volume 44, issue 4, april 2024
1. title: benchmark dose modeling for epidemiological dose�response assessment using prospective cohort studies
authors: de pretis, francesco; zhou, yun; xun, pengcheng; shao, kan.
abstract: benchmark dose (bmd) methodology has been employed as a default dose�response modeling approach to determine the toxicity value of chemicals to support regulatory chemical risk assessment. especially, a relatively standardized bmd analysis framework has been established for modeling toxicological data regarding the formats of input data, dose�response models, definitions of benchmark response, and model uncertainty consideration. however, the bmd approach has not been well developed for epidemiological data mainly because of the diverse designs of epidemiological studies and various formats of data reported in the literature. although most of the epidemiological bmd analyses were developed to solve a particular question, the methods proposed in two recent studies are able to handle cohort and case control studies using summary data with consideration of adjustments for confounders. therefore, the purpose of the present study is to investigate and compare the "effective count" based bmd modeling approach and adjusted relative risk (rr) based bmd analysis approach to identify an appropriate bmd modeling framework that can be generalized for analyzing published data of prospective cohort studies for bmd analysis. the two methods were applied to the same set of studies that investigated the association between bladder and lung cancer and inorganic arsenic exposure for bmd estimation. the results suggest that estimated bmds and bmdls are relatively consistent; however, with the consideration of established common practice in bmd analysis, modeling adjusted rr values as continuous data for bmd estimation is a more generalizable approach harmonized with the bmd approach using toxicological data.
2. title: analytic and heuristic process for prudent antimicrobial use in animals: what are triggers and how do they work?
authors: wang, mingliang; gong, shunlong; bai, li; liang, luyu; weng, zhenlin; tang, jin.
abstract: the over and misuse of antimicrobials in animal agriculture causes a prevailing crisis for humans, animals, and the environment. from the one health approach perspective, the formation process of adopting prudent antimicrobial use (amu), once established, can be used to mitigate this crisis. the study aimed to determine the analytic based and heuristic based process that evoked prudent amu among animal farmers by synthesis of stimulus organism response framework and dual system theory and to explore gender differences on risk benefit trade offs. a structural equation model was employed to test the proposed hypotheses with field survey data from 1100 small scale farmers. the results reveal that for the analytic based process, social influence, antimicrobial related threats, and self efficacy are all salient stimuli having indirect effects on intention via the two organisms of perceived risks and perceived benefits. for heuristic based process, farmers' altruistic value orientations are positively associated with intention. an interesting fact is that threat awareness has two opposite effects on intention, namely, the suppression effect and the enhancement effect. moreover, the negative effect of perceived risks on intention is greater among female farmers, compared to male counterparts. these findings provide valuable insights for the forming of theory based intervention strategies to perfect china's national action plan.
3. title: the resilience of the pork supply chain to a food safety outbreak: the case of dioxins.
authors: focker, marlous; van wagenberg, coen; van asselt, esther; van der fels klerx, h. j.
abstract: food supply chains are constantly challenged by food safety hazards entering the chain. the ability of the supply chain to provide safe food within a reasonable time after such a food safety threat or shock can be investigated with the concept of resilience using food safety as an indicator. resilience is then defined as the food safety performance deviation due to the shock and takes both the severity of the shock as well as the time to fully recover or reach a new equilibrium into account. this study developed a stochastic simulation model to evaluate the resilience of the dutch pork supply chain to dioxin contamination in the feed. the resilience of the supply chain as well as the potential costs associated with the contamination are compared between several monitoring strategies with the aim to determine the optimal control points for dioxin monitoring. model results show that collecting and analyzing samples at more than one control point along the pork supply chain, in particular at feed mills and fat melting facilities, resulted in the highest resilience and the lowest costs after a shock. this model and these results can be used by public and private decision makers to make proactive and informed decisions on the monitoring strategies to control dioxins in the pork supply chain that result in optimal resilience to a dioxin crises.
4. title: covid 19 vaccine acceptance: a comparative longitudinal analysis of the association between risk perception, confidence, and the acceptance of a covid 19 vaccine.
authors: martinelli, mauro; veltri, giuseppe a.
abstract: following the outbreak of covid 19, scientists rushed to develop vaccines to protect individuals and ferry the world out of the pandemic. unfortunately, vaccine hesitancy is a major threat to the success of vaccination campaigns. research on previous pandemics highlighted the centrality of perceived risk and confidence as core determinants of vaccine acceptance. research on covid 19 is less conclusive, and frequently it relies on one country, cross sectional data, thus making it hard to generalize results across contexts and observe these relationships over time. to bridge these gaps, in this article, we analyzed the association between perceived risk, confidence, and vaccine acceptance cross sectionally at individual and country levels. then, we longitudinally explored whether a within country variation in perceived risk and confidence was correlated with a variation in vaccine acceptance. we used data from a large scale survey of individuals in 23 countries and 19 time points between june 2020 and march 2021 and comparative longitudinal multilevel models to estimate the associations at different levels of analysis simultaneously. results show the existence of cross sectional relationships at the individual and country levels but no significant associations within countries over time. this article contributes to our understanding of the roles of risk perception and confidence in covid 19 vaccines' acceptance by underlining that these relationships might differ at diverse levels of analysis. to foster vaccine uptake, it might be important to address individual concerns and persisting contextual characteristics, but increasing levels of perceived risk and confidence might not be a sufficient strategy to increase vaccine acceptance rates.
5. title: micro spatial flood risk assessment in nagaon district, assam (india) using gis based multi criteria decision analysis (mcda) and analytical hierarchy process (ahp).
authors: bhuyan, manash jyoti; deka, nityananda; saikia, ashish.
abstract: nagaon is one of the highly flood prone districts of assam, india that recurrently experiences devastating floods resulting in the loss of lives and property and wreaking havoc on the district's socioeconomic infrastructure. identification and mapping of spatial patterns of flood hazards, flood vulnerability, and flood risk zones (frzs) of the district are, therefore, crucial for flood management and mitigation. the present study, therefore, attempts to delineate the frzs of more than 930 villages in the nagaon district by integrating the flood hazard and vulnerability layers in the geospatial environment using the multi criteria decision analysis and analytical hierarchy process techniques. here, seven flood hazard and vulnerability indicators are considered to derive each layer separately. the results indicate that about 15.14% of the district's total villages are in the very high frz, 27.93% in the high, 46.62% in the moderate, and 10.3% in the low frz. further, bivariate correlation analysis is used to evaluate the results with the percentages of the population, cropland, and animals affected by floods at different temporal scales in order to ensure that the revenue circles with a higher percentage of area under high and very high frzs genuinely have higher percentages of flood affected cropland, people, and livestock. the significance of this research is evident in its pragmatic findings that could aid the stakeholders in managing and reducing flood risk at micro spatial scales.
6. title: machine learning and user interface for cyber risk management of water infrastructure.
authors: neshenko, nataliia; bou harb, elias; furht, borko; behara, ravi.
abstract: with the continuous modernization of water plants, the risk of cyberattacks on them potentially endangers public health and the economic efficiency of water treatment and distribution. this article signifies the importance of developing improved techniques to support cyber risk management for critical water infrastructure, given an evolving threat environment. in particular, we propose a method that uniquely combines machine learning, the theory of belief functions, operational performance metrics, and dynamic visualization to provide the required granularity for attack inference, localization, and impact estimation. we illustrate how the focus on visual domain aware anomaly exploration leads to performance improvement, more precise anomaly localization, and effective risk prioritization. proposed elements of the method can be used independently, supporting the exploration of various anomaly detection methods. it thus can facilitate the effective management of operational risk by providing rich context information and bridging the interpretation gap.
7. title: a methodology to estimate postdisaster unmet housing needs using limited data: application to the 2017 california wildfires.
authors: costa, rodrigo; baker, jack w.
abstract: in the united states, assistance from the department of housing and urban development (hud) plays an essential role in supporting the postdisaster recovery of states with unmet housing needs. hud requires data on unmet needs to appropriate recovery funds. ground truth data are not available for months after a disaster, however, so hud uses a simplified approach to estimate unmet housing needs. state authorities argue that hud's simplified approach underestimates the state's needs. this article presents a methodology to estimate postdisaster unmet housing needs that is accurate and relies only on data obtained shortly after a disaster. data on the number of damaged buildings are combined with models for expected repair costs. statistical models for aid distributed by the federal emergency management agency (fema) and the small business administration (sba) are then developed and used to forecast funding provided by those agencies. with these forecasts, the unmet need to be funded by hud is estimated. the approach can be used for multiple states and hazard types. as validation, the proposed methodology is used to estimate the unmet housing needs following disasters that struck california in 2017. california authorities suggest that hud's methodology underestimated the state's needs by a factor of 20. conversely, the proposed methodology can replicate the estimates by the state authorities and provide accounts of losses, the amount of funding from fema and sba, and the total unmet housing needs without requiring data unavailable shortly after a disaster. thus, the proposed methodology can help improve hud's funding appropriation without delays.
8. title: quantifying the risk of mass shootings at specific locations.
authors: lei, xue; mackenzie, cameron.
abstract: mass shootings are horrific events that annually take scores of innocent lives in the united states. federal, state, and local governments as well as educational, religious, and private sector organizations propose and enact polices and strategies to protect people from and during active shooter situations. a probabilistic risk assessment of a mass shooting for a specific organization, jurisdiction, or location can be the first step toward evaluating the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies and determining which strategies might be most appropriate for a location. this article proposes a novel hierarchical method to assess the probability of a mass shooting at specific locations based on available historical data. first, the method generates a probability distribution over the annual number of mass shootings in the united states. second, the article uses this national number of mass shootings to determine the risk for each state. third, the state risk assessment is decomposed to calculate the probability of a mass shooting in a specific location such as a school. multiple ways to assess the risk are presented, leading to slightly different probability assessments for a location. results indicate that annual probability of a mass shooting in the largest high school in california is on the order of 10"6"10"5$10^{-6}-10^{-5}$, and the annual probability of a mass shooting in the largest high school in iowa is about half as likely as in the california school.
9. title: using mobile phone data to evaluate access to essential services following natural hazards.
authors: swanson, tessa; guikema, seth.
abstract: natural hazards bring about changes in the access to essential services such as grocery stores, healthcare, schools, and day care because of facility closures, transportation system disruption, evacuation orders, power outages, and other barriers to access. understanding changes in access to essential services following a disruption is critical to ensure equitable recovery and more resilient communities. however, past approaches to understanding facility closures and inaccessibility such as surveys and interviews are labor intensive and of limited geographic scope. in this article, we develop an approach to understanding facility level inaccessibility across a broad geographic area based on location based services data collected from cell phones. this approach supplements current approaches and helps both researchers and emergency response planners better understand which communities lose access to essential services and for how long. we demonstrate our approach by analyzing loss of access to supermarkets, schools, healthcare facilities, and home improvement stores in southwest florida leading up to and following the landfall of hurricane irma in 2017.
10. title: quantitative risk assessment of china's first liquid hydrogen refueling station.
authors: yuan, wenhao; li, jingfeng; yangyiming, rong; peng, jianbin; xie, junlong; chen, jianye.
abstract: hydrogen refueling stations (hrss) are among the most important infrastructures for fuel cell vehicles. however, the safety issue of hrss has become a key constraint to the wide application and development of hydrogen energy. this article presents a quantitative risk assessment of the first liquid hrs (lhrs) in china and conducts a comprehensive assessment in terms of both individual (ir) and societal risks (srs). the results showed that both the irs and srs related to the lhrs exceeded the risk acceptance criteria. the rupture of the flexible hose of the dispenser and the leak from the compressor are the main contributors to these risks. on the other hand, implementing appropriate mitigation measures on the level of the lhrs dispenser and compressor, including the addition of breakaway couplings in the flexible hose of the dispenser, the installation of hydrogen detection sensors, the arrangement of automatic and manual emergency shutdown buttons, and the elevation of the compressor, is capable of reducing the risk of the lhrs to be within the risk acceptance criteria.
11. title: how people decide who is correct when groups of scientists disagree.
authors: johnson, branden b.; mayorga, marcus; dieckmann, nathan f.
abstract: uncertainty that arises from disputes among scientists seems to foster public skepticism or noncompliance. communication of potential cues to the relative performance of contending scientists might affect judgments of which position is likely more valid. we used actual scientific disputes�the nature of dark matter, sea level rise under climate change, and benefits and risks of marijuana�to assess americans' responses (n = 3150). seven cues replication, information quality, the majority position, degree source, experience, reference group support, and employer were presented three cues at a time in a planned missingness design. the most influenti
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�gd�d�gdmw�gd�{gd)w�gd�s�al cues were majority vote, replication, information quality, and experience. several potential moderators�topical engagement, prior attitudes, knowledge of science, and attitudes toward science�lacked even small effects on choice, but cues had the strongest effects for dark matter and weakest effects for marijuana, and general mistrust of scientists moderately attenuated top cues' effects. risk communicators can take these influential cues into account in understanding how laypeople respond to scientific disputes, and improving communication about such disputes.
12. title: choosing human over ai doctors? how comparative trust associations and knowledge relate to risk and benefit perceptions of ai in healthcare.
authors: kerstan, sophie; bienefeld, nadine; grote, gudela.
abstract: the development of artificial intelligence (ai) in healthcare is accelerating rapidly. beyond the urge for technological optimization, public perceptions and preferences regarding the application of such technologies remain poorly understood. risk and benefit perceptions of novel technologies are key drivers for successful implementation. therefore, it is crucial to understand the factors that condition these perceptions. in this study, we draw on the risk perception and human ai interaction literature to examine how explicit (i.e., deliberate) and implicit (i.e., automatic) comparative trust associations with ai versus physicians, and knowledge about ai, relate to likelihood perceptions of risks and benefits of ai in healthcare and preferences for the integration of ai in healthcare. we use survey data (n = 378) to specify a path model. results reveal that the path for implicit comparative trust associations on relative preferences for ai over physicians is only significant through risk, but not through benefit perceptions. this finding is reversed for ai knowledge. explicit comparative trust associations relate to ai preference through risk and benefit perceptions. these findings indicate that risk perceptions of ai in healthcare might be driven more strongly by affect laden factors than benefit perceptions, which in turn might depend more on reflective cognition. implications of our findings and directions for future research are discussed considering the conceptualization of trust as heuristic and dual process theories of judgment and decision making. regarding the design and implementation of ai based healthcare technologies, our findings suggest that a holistic integration of public viewpoints is warranted.
13. title: the lesser of two evils: assessing the public acceptance of ai thermal facial recognition during the covid 19 crisis.
authors: shi, jia; hu, xiangnan; guo, xuesong.
abstract: ai thermal facial recognition (aitfr) has been rapidly applied globally in the fight against coronavirus disease 2019 (covid 19). however, aitfr has also been accompanied by a controversy regarding whether the public accepts it. therefore, it is necessary to assess the acceptance of aitfr during the covid 19 crisis. drawing upon the theory of acceptable risk and siegrist's causal model of public acceptance (pa), we built a combined psychological model that included the perceived severity of covid 19 (psc) to describe the influencing factors and pathways of aitfr acceptance. this model was verified through a survey conducted in xi'an city, shaanxi province, china, which collected 754 valid questionnaires. the results show that (1) covid 19 provides various application scenarios for ai related technologies. however, the respondents' trust in aitfr was found to be very low. additionally, the public appeared concerned about the privacy disclosure issue and the accuracy of the aitfr algorithm. (2) the psc, social trust (st), and perceived benefit (pb) were found to directly affect aitfr acceptance. (3) the psc was found to have a significant positive effect on perceived risk (pr). pr was found to have no significant effect on pa, which is inconsistent with the findings of previous studies. (4) the pb were found to be a stronger mediator of the indirect effect of the psc on st induced by aitfr acceptance.
14. title: understanding the regulator�regulatee relationship for developing safety culture.
authors: willis, sara; holman, david; clarke, sharon; hartwig, angelique.
abstract: regulatory authorities in safety critical industries typically seek to influence the safety culture of the organizations they oversee. however, we know little about how regulatory authorities achieve this influence (e.g., what roles are adopted, relationship characteristics) and, more generally, about how external actors shape an organization's safety culture. using a qualitative design in the nuclear industry, we developed our conceptual and empirical understanding of the roles through which a regulator influences the safety culture of their regulated organizations and what characteristics within the regulator�regulatee relationship facilitate positive safety culture developments. data were collected through interviews with inspectors froۊ܊����2�2�2�εеҕ֕ڕ��җԗ�0�2�d�f�f����ŷ������vhzvj�������١ڡ��ȣ���������{�m]oa3h�d�h�d�ojqj^jo(hih)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jh[h)w�5�ojqj^jo(h�{h�{5�ojqj^jh[hmw�5�ojqj^jh�d�h�d�5�ojqj^jhmw�5�ojqj^jo(hmw�hmw�5�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh)w�5�ojqj^jo(h�s�5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(h[h)w�ojqj^jo(h�#�h�#�ojqj^jm a nuclear regulator and employees of regulated nuclear organizations, and from an inspection of regulatory documents. the findings identified that the regulator was perceived to hold three complementary roles for safety culture development: being an enforcer, working as a partner (providing opportunities for licenseholders to improve beyond compliance), and acting as an advisor to regulated organizations. analysis also showed that effective relationships in these roles, and which were central to influencing safety culture, were perceived to be characterized by professionalism, transparency, and balance between formal enforcement and informal exchange. theoretical implications to advance conceptualizations of safety culture as well as practical implications for risk regulators are discussed.
15. title: asymmetric nexus between pandemic uncertainty and public health spendings: evidence from quantile estimation.
authors: teng, chenmei; zhu, xiaoya; nazar, raima; kanwal, tahira.
abstract: the covid 19 pandemic has brought significant challenges to healthcare systems worldwide, prompting governments to allocate substantial resources toward public health spendings (phs). however, the uncertainties surrounding the pandemic have raised questions about the effectiveness and sustainability of such expenditures. this research analyzes the nonlinear link between pandemic uncertainty (pnu) and phs in countries with highest pnu (usa, india, france, germany, uk, saudi arabia, south korea, indonesia, japan, and china). previous studies have employed panel data methodologies to establish consistent findings regarding the relationship between pandemics and health spendings, regardless of the fact that several countries have not autonomously recognized this connection. in contrast, this current research adopts a distinctive tool called "quantile on quantile," which enables the examination of time series dependency within each economy, providing both international and country specific perspectives on the relatiȣѥ�#�$�%�'�(�)�/�0����������������ⱥ����|n`pb4hih)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jh$?�h
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