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��ࡱ�>�� r�<{bjbj`.`.2�d�gd�g.s ��66��8|�$�=o��n�n�n�n�n�n�n$#q��sf�n��n��4�nddd��nd��nddd��h��xxd�n o0=odt�ftdd0t�tkt��d��n�n.��=o��t��6b�: global environmental change volume 81, issue 4, july 2023 1. title: indigenous lands with secure land-tenure can reduce forest-loss in deforestation hotspots authors: micaela camino, pablo arriaga velasco aceves, ana alvarez, pablo chianetta, ... sara cortez abstract: due to human activities, most natural ecosystems of the world have disappeared and the rest are threatened. at a global scale, 40% of the remaining forests occur in indigenous peoples lands (ipl). while several studies show that ipl contribute to conserve forest-cover and halt forest-loss, other studies have found opposite results. the differing results on the role of ipl in forest conservation and loss are probably because of the effect of other variables, e.g. land tenure security. in this study, we addressed the role of ipl in forest conservation and loss, differentiating ipl with land-tenure security (ipl-s) and insecurity (ipl-i). we worked in a deforestation hotspot, the south american dry chaco region. first, we mapped ipl in the dry chaco. then, covering the period 2000�2019, we measured forest cover and loss in ipl-s, ipl-i and in areas that are not indigenous (non-ipl). finally, we used a matching estimators method to statistically evaluate if ipl-s and ipl-i halt forest loss. to avoid bias, we accounted for the effect of variables such as country (argentina/bolivia/paraguay), protected area (yes/no), etc. we created the first map of ipl for the dry chaco, and found that at least 44% of the remaining forests are in ipl, and 67% of them are ipl-i. our results also showed that ipl-s work as deforestation barriers. inside pa, the effect of ipl-s was not always significant, probably because pa were already reducing forest loss. the effect of ipl-i on halting forest-loss was variable. we conclude that land-tenure security is key for ipl to reduce forest-loss, adding evidence on the importance of securing land-tenure rights of indigenous communities for conservation purposes. at a regional scale, a large proportion of the remaining forests are indigenous and conservation initiatives should be co-developed with locals, respecting their rights, needs and cosmovisions. 2. title: civil society and survival: indigenous amazigh climate adaptation in morocco authors: peter j. jacques abstract: indigenous amazigh people of morocco face dangerous climate change impacts, particularly in the form of drought and changes to the hydrologic cycles, but they also must live outside the circle of patronage under authoritarian rule by the kingdom and the makhzen. the makhzen is the pool of elites around the king in the military, government, and business which distributes or withholds opportunities and government resources and services. the purpose of this article is to explore role of amazigh civil society in climate adaptation moroccan authoritarianism. to do so, focus groups and interviews were conducted around the mountains of marrakech in rural villages. participants in the focus groups explained that water insecurity was their most frequent concern, now and into the future. they also discussed obstacles to adapting to this insecurity, such as education that is difficult to access (especially for girls), health problems, poverty and irregular work. poverty is central to adapting to climate change, as it affects so many other things, such as amazigh health. when we look to the intersection of the data from the interviews, we see that the concerns revolve around fulfilling basic subsistence and fighting material deprivation, relief from socio-political marginalization, and the provision of help and a shared fate. each of these central intersections point to the fact that the role of amazigh civil society under authoritarian rule is to provide a social safety net to relieve suffering and misery. 3. title: effectively communicating the removal of fossil energy subsidies: evidence from latin america authors: yan vieites, bernardo andretti, mariana weiss, jorge jacob, michelle hallack abstract: fossil energy subsidies create a series of distortions that often have negative environmental and social consequences. yet, since subsidies confer salient and tangible benefits in the form of cheaper prices, citizens are very resistant to reforms. this research investigates how to best communicate the removal of fossil subsidies using a highly powered, pre-registered study with 5,498 participants across 11 countries in latin america. we assessed baseline knowledge and views about subsidies and randomly assigned participants to one of eight experimental conditions varying in both the aspects emphasized (e.g., environment, distributive justice, prospective fiscal benefits) and the form of providing the message (i.e., complete or summarized information). our results show that citizens (a) display a generalized lack of knowledge about the existence of energy subsidies, (b) are very unwilling to remove these subsidies once they know of their existence, and (c) would like subsidies to actually increase rather than decrease. despite these results, our experiment revealed that communication strategies can be tailored to increase the acceptance of energy reforms. specifically, emphasizing the negative consequences of subsidies (e.g., overconsumption of natural resources and unfair allocation of resources to the wealthy) is more effective than highlighting the potential benefits to be obtained via their removal (e.g., higher investment in healthcare, education, public safety, or welfare programs). further, providing complete information is more effective than offering summarized pieces of information. these findings provide guidance on how to effectively communicate energy reforms. 4. title: status, challenges and pathways to the sustainable use of wild species authors: jean-marc fromentin, marla r. emery, john donaldson, ganesan balachander, ... derek tittensor abstract: the use of wild species is extensive in both high- and low-income countries. at least 50,000 wild species are used by billions of people around the world for food, energy, medicine, material, education or recreation, contributing significantly to efforts to achieve the united nations sustainable development goals. however, overexploitation remains a major threat to many wild species. ensuring and enhancing the sustainability of use of wild species is thus essential for human well-being and biodiversity conservation. globally, the use of wild species is increasing due to growing human demand and efficiency, but its sustainability varies and depends on the social-ecological contexts in which the use occurs. multiple environmental and social (including economic) drivers affect the sustainability of use of wild species, posing major current and future challenges. in particular, climate change has already increased the vulnerability of many uses and is expected to increase it further in the coming decades, while global and illegal trades are, in many cases, key drivers of unsustainability. there is no single �silver bullet� policy to address these and other major challenges in the sustainable use of wild species. rather, effective policies need to integrate inclusive actions at multiple scales that adopt right-based approaches, pay attention to equitable distribution of access and costs and benefits, employ participatory processes, strengthen monitoring programs, build robust customary or government institutions and support context-specific policies, as well as adaptive management. 5. title: forty-year multi-scale land cover change and political ecology data reveal a dynamic and regenerative process of forests in peruvian indigenous territories authors: aoife bennett, anne larson, alejandra zamora r�os, iliana monterroso, gamarra sheila abstract: this article explores deforestation and reforestation dynamics over 415,749 hectares of 25 titled indigenous community lands (icls) in the peruvian amazon over forty years at three scales: total area, regions, and communities. we focus on icls as the territorial unit of analysis, as they are increasingly discussed regarding their importance for conservation. additionally indigenous communities (ics) are a too-marginalized group in the amazon that merit more attention. analyses of this kind are often short-term and use only large-scale earth observation methodologies. we use a multi-method approach linking remote sensing with ground verification, and qualitative historical political ecology work with ics. we find that overall accumulated deforestation was low at 5%, but that when reforestation is considered, net deforestation was only 3.5%. at the community level deforestation and afforestation dynamics are complex, except for one period that indicates a macro state driver in the region. results suggest inadequate accounting for forest regeneration in deforestation analyses and challenge the notion that presenting stakeholders with accumulated forest loss values is helpful in tropical areas where forests and people are dynamic. furthermore, our work with communities highlights that categorizing them and their lands as pro-environment or not in general terms is unhelpful for determining fund flows to icls for environmental or development purposes. 6. title: governing-by-aspiration? assessing the nature and implications of including negative emission technologies (nets) in country long-term climate strategies authors: heather jacobs, aarti gupta, ina m�ller abstract: in order to address the pressing challenge of climate change, countries are now submitting long-term climate strategies to the united nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc) process. these strategies include within them potential future use of �negative emissions technologies� (nets). nets are interventions that remove carbon from the atmosphere, ranging from large-scale terrestrial carbon sequestration in forests, wetlands and soils, to use of carbon capture and storage technologies. we assess here how nets are discussed in 29 long-term climate strategies, in order to ascertain the risk that including the promise of future nets may delay the taking of short-term mitigation actions. our analysis shows that almost all countries plan to rely on nets, particularly enhanced use of natural carbon sinks, even as a wide array of challenges and trade-offs in doing so are highlighted. many strategies call for improved accounting systems and market incentives in realizing future nets. while no strategy explicitly suggests that nets can be a substitute for short-term mitigation, most estimate substantial potential for future use of nets even in the face of acknowledged uncertainties. this, we suggest, may have the consequence of resulting in what we describe here as �a spiral of delay� characterized by the promise of future net options juxtaposed with the simultaneous uncertainty around these future options. our analysis highlights that this inter-connected delaying dynamic may be intrinsic to what we term �governing-by-aspiration� within global climate politics, wherein the voicing of lofty future ambition risks replacing current action and accountability. 7. title: is anticipatory governance opening up or closing down future possibilities? findings from diverse contexts in the global south authors: karlijn muiderman, joost vervoort, aarti gupta, rathana peou norbert-munns, ... peter driessen abstract: there is an urgent need to understand how anticipation processes such as scenario planning impact governance choices in the present. however, little empirical research has been done to analyze how anticipation processes frame possibilities for action. this paper investigates how assumptions about the future open up or close down anticipatory governance actions in a large number of climate-focused anticipation processes. we focused on four global south regions: west africa, south asia, southeast asia and central america. we apply an analytical framework that identifies four diverse approaches to anticipatory governance and connect this to the notion of opening up or closing down of possibility spaces for action. across the four regions, we find that many anticipation processes open up dialogue about deep uncertainties and pluralistic worldviews but end up informing mostly technocratic and linear planning actions in the present. we also observe that anticipation processes in the central american context more often break this trend, particularly when transformative ambitions are formulated. the focus on more technocratic futures and linear planning strategies and reliance on a mostly north-based global futures industry may close down more culturally, socially and politically diverse and regionally relevant future worldviews in anticipation processes. 8. title: �climate-smart agriculture and food security: cross-country evidence from west africa� authors: martin paul jr. tabe-ojong, ghislain b.d. aihounton, jourdain c. lokossou abstract: in the face of climate change and extreme weather events which continue to have significant impacts on agricultural production, climate-smart agriculture (csa) has emerged as one important entry point in reducing the emission of greenhouse gases and building climate resilience while ensuring increases in agricultural productivity with ensuing implications on food and nutrition security. we examine the relationship between csa, land productivity (yields), and food security using a survey of farm households in ghana, mali, and nigeria. to understand the correlates of the adoption of these csa practices as well as the association between csa, yields, and food security, we use switching regressions that account for multiple endogenous treatments. we find a positive association between the adoption of csa practices and yields. this increase in yields translate to food security as we observe a positive association between csa and food consumption scores. although we show modest associations between the independent use of csa practices such as adopting climate-smart groundnut varieties, cereal-groundnut intercropping, and the use of organic fertilizers, we find that bundling these practices may lead to greater yield and food security gains. under the different combinations, the use of climate-smart groundnut varieties exhibit the strongest association with yields and food security. we also estimate actual-counterfactual relationships where we show that the adoption of csa practices is not only beneficial to csa adopters but could potentially be beneficial to non-csa adopters should they adopt. these results have implications for reaching some of the sustainable development targets, especially the twin goals of increasing agricultural productivity and maintaining environmental sustainability. 9. title: global pesticide use and trade database (gloput): new estimates show pesticide use trends in low-income countries substantially underestimated authors: annie shattuck, marion werner, finn mempel, zackary dunivin, ryan galt abstract: assessments of pesticide impacts globally and holistic policies to address them require accurate pesticide use data, but good use data are difficult to find. for comparable estimates across countries, researchers and policymakers depend upon pesticide use data collected by the un food and agriculture organization (fao). we analyze the fao database and find declines in data reporting and data quality since 2007. we present a novel method that uses bilateral paired mirror trade statistics and an index of reporter reliability to add, update and/or replace data for 137 countries. the resulting global pesticide use and trade (gloput) database shows pesticide use in low and lower-middle income countries has been substantially underestimated. over the last decade, global pesticide use grew 20% by volume; use in low-income countries grew by 153% over the same period. gloput estimates more accurately reflect social science findings on recent agrichemical supply chain restructuring and agrarian development, which indicate substantial increases in pesticide use. significant issues with data reporting and quality mean that the impacts of recent changes in pesticide production, availability and adoption were not reflected in the fao database, and, as a result, neither are they reflected in high profile environmental assessments. 10. title: large gaps in voluntary sustainability commitments covering the global cocoa trade authors: claudia parra-paitan, erasmus k.h.j. zu ermgassen, patrick meyfroidt, peter h. verburg abstract: the production and trade of agricultural commodities, such as cocoa, have important impacts on farmer livelihoods and the environment, prompting a growing number of companies to adopt public commitments to address sustainability issues in their value chains. though trading companies, who handle the procurement and export of these commodities, are key actors in corporate sustainability efforts, cross-country data on their identity, market share, and adoption of sustainability commitments is lacking. here, we address this gap for the cocoa sector by compiling detailed shipping data from eight countries responsible for 80% of global cocoa exports, developing a typology of trader types, and assessing their adoption of sustainability commitments. we find that cocoa trading is a highly concentrated market: seven transnational companies handled 62% of the global cocoa trade, with even larger shares in individual cocoa producing countries. the remaining 38% of exports were handled by domestic trading companies and farmer cooperatives. overall, the adoption of public sustainability commitments is low. we estimated that just over one quarter (26%) of cocoa is traded under some form of sustainability commitment, with gaps arising from their exclusion of indirect sourcing, low adoption rates by domestic traders, and commitment blind spots, notably on forest degradation and farmer incomes. low rates of traceability and transparency pose a further barrier to the broadscale implementation and monitoring of these commitments: one-quarter of traders report being able to trace at least some of their cocoa back to farmer cooperatives and only half of them openly disclose the identity of their suppliers. we discuss the opportunities and limitations of voluntary sustainability commitments in a highly concentrated market and argue that, to realize visions of sustainable trade, the gaps in commitment coverage must be closed by extending current efforts to smaller traders and indirect suppliers. however, companies must support, coordinate and align with government efforts so that voluntary initiatives are ultimately rendered more transparent and accountable. 11. title: diffusion of global climate policy: national depoliticization, local repoliticization in turkey authors: mahir yazar, irem daloglu cetinkaya, ece baykal fide, h�vard haarstad abstract: although climate policy diffusion is widely studied, we know comparatively little about how these global policies and the norms that surround them are used by various political actors seeking to advance their own agendas. in this article, we focus on how global climate norms are diffused differently at national and local scales and used to repoliticize or depoliticize climate change. we focus on the case of turkey, which carries the stark contrast of showing willingness to achieve global climate goals in the international arena but less so in domestic politics and actions. the article employs a novel methodological approach, using topic modeling and network analyses on a range of climate change�related policy documents, and interviews with high-level officers, conducted at the three jurisdictional levels in turkey. the findings reveal that although global climate policy is diffused to both national and local governments, it is used in different ways at these levels. the national government uses climate policy diffusion to depoliticize climate change by creating ad hoc climate coalitions and limiting local climate actions to seeking external climate-related funds. meanwhile, the metropolitan municipalities replicate nationally adopted climate goals, whereas the district municipalities domesticate ambitious climate norms and repoliticize climate change via local climate entrepreneurs and civic action. the paper contributes to understanding how climate policy diffusion and norm domestication can have different political outcomes in achieving global climate goals and argues for increased policy attention to the strategic use of climate policy diffusion for the depoliticization of climate change. 12. title: using protection motivation theory to examine information-seeking behaviors on climate change authors: jun li, ping qin, yifei quan, jie-sheng tan-soo abstract: many earlier studies concluded that exposure to changes in local weather or extreme weather events prompt public interest in climate change, and in turn raise support for mitigation policies. however, these findings do not square with observations of record-breaking temperatures, and decades of failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. to address this conundrum, we use protection motivation theory to form hypotheses on the specific type of climate change-related information that individuals seek during periods of extreme local weather. using daily-level internet search engine data from chinese cities, we find that residents are purposeful and rational in seeking information on climate change. specifically, when faced with high or abnormal temperatures, they are much more likely to seek information to appraise their susceptibility to climate change threats, and evaluate coping responses. on the other hand, due to the lack of direct benefits, they do not seek out information on climate mitigation behaviors. in contrast to earlier studies, our findings suggest that it is unlikely that extreme weather events will prompt support for climate mitigation actions. instead, as worldwide weather becomes more extreme and unpredictable, it is likely that public�s attention will shift in the direction of adaptation measures. 13. title: testing the reliability of adaptive capacity as a proxy for adaptive and transformative responses to climate change authors: henry a. bartelet, michele l. barnes, lalu a.a. bakti, graeme s. cumming abstract: the concept of adaptive capacity is increasingly being applied to understand and predict people�s ability to adapt to the emerging impacts of climate change. despite its potential utility, the degree to which adaptive capacity is a reliable predictor of adaptation remains unclear; evidence for a causal relationship is insufficient and conflicting. to address this gap, we surveyed 231 reef tourism companies across eight countries in the asia-pacific that have been affected by severe climate disturbances between 2014 and 2019. we used a combination of descriptive and multivariate statistical approaches to explore the relationships between adaptive capacity, adaptive responses, and contextual conditions. our findings indicate that a comprehensive operationalization of actor-specific adaptive capacity is not necessarily a reliable proxy for measuring potential adaptation to future climate change. the severity of impacts on individual operators was the major determinant of adaptive action. adaptive action might therefore be adopted autonomously by the majority of microeconomic actors (when they are severely affected), irrespective of their a priori adaptive capacity. adaptive capacity was, however, a reliable proxy for the likelihood that an operator would take transformative action as their primary response to a climate disturbance; several of our indicators of adaptive capacity had a meaningful effect size, in particular those within the adaptive capacity domain of social organization. policies focused on improving coordination and collaboration between industry, research, and government actors might therefore be more effective than alternatives in promoting long-term transformation of social-ecological systems. adaptation confidence and government effectiveness were barriers to transformative action, and we provide some potential explanations. further empirical research is needed to evaluate the generality of our findings in different contexts over space and time. 14. title: territorial inertia versus adaptation to climate change. when local authorities discuss coastal management in a french mediterranean region authors: samuel robert, axel quercy, alexandra schleyer-lindenmann abstract: adaptation to climate change is a critical issue in coastal areas, at risk from sea-level rise, erosion, and sea flooding. in territories strongly urbanized and long oriented toward tourism and a residential economy, a change in coastal management and territorial development is hard to initiate. in provence-alpes-c�te d'azur (france), a leading tourism region, this article explores how local authorities perceive climate change and talk about adaptation strategies. interviews with municipal-level authorities, both elected officials and technical agents, reveal the influence of territorial inertia, with persistent statements promoting the beach- and residential-oriented economy and a wait-and-see attitude regarding climate change. beach erosion is the only coastal risk interviewees really recognize, while sea-level rise and sea flooding are barely perceived. yet evidence supporting the possibility of a future change in position is provided by the younger generation of interviewees, who are more aware of environmental challenges. providing original data for a coastal region often considered as a model of development throughout the world, this article also proposes an original and transferable method combining geographical sampling of municipalities, text statistics and qualitative analysis of interviews, to apprehend the social representations of the coast, of climate change and coastal risks. such a methodology is recommended prior to any quantitative assessment of climate action at local scale. 15. title: the demographics of energy and mobility poverty: assessing equity and justice in ireland, mexico, and the united arab emirates authors: jonathan furszyfer del rio, dylan d. furszyfer del rio, benjamin k. sovacool, steve griffiths abstract: energy and mobility poverty limits people�s choices and opportunities and negatively impinges upon structural economic and social welfare patterns. it also hampers the ability of planners to implement more equitable and just decarbonization pathways. research has revealed that climate policies have imposed a financial burden on low-income and other vulnerable groups by increasing food and energy prices, leading as well to global inequality. similarly, researchers have warned that in developing countries, emission mitigation policies could increase poverty rates and even frustrate progress towards universal access to clean energy. this research explores whether low-income social groups experience a 'double energy vulnerability', a situation that simultaneously positions people at heightened risk of transport and energy poverty. we investigate this 'double vulnerability' through original data collection via three nationally representative surveys of mexico (n = 1,205), the united arab emirates (n = 1,141), ireland and northern ireland (n = 1,860). we draw from this original data to elaborate on the sociodemographic attributes, expenditure and behaviour emerging from energy and transport use, focusing on themes such as equity, behaviour and vulnerability. we propose energy and transport poverty indexes that allow us to summarize the key contributing factors to energy and transport poverty in the countries studied and uncover a strong correlation between these two salient forms of poverty. our results suggest that energy and transport poverty are common issues regardless of the very different national, and even sub-national, contexts. we conclude that energy and transport poverty requires target policy interventions suitable for all segments of society, thus enabling contextually-tailored, just energy transitions. 16. title: corporate concessions: opportunity or liability for climate advocacy groups? authors: simone pulver abstract: when social movements achieve some success in meeting goals, elite opponents may see compromise and collaboration with movement organizations as a desirable option. the consequences for advocacy organizations of elite concessions are contested. some highlight the political opportunities created by elite support, such as increased access to financial resources, political processes, and new audiences. others identify potential liabilities, including demobilization, bureaucratization, and the co-optation of advocacy frames. herein is presented a framework for analyzing the pathways through which realignments among elite opponents influence social movement struggles, using the first fifteen years of the international climate negotiations as a historical case. after years of pressure from environmental advocacy organizations, some global oil corporations shifted their climate policy stance from obstruction to collaboration. these realignments in turn affected the activities, framing strategies, policy access, and cross-group relations of climate advocacy groups, benefiting some to the detriment of others. #%-.0479:;<=f��ʻʬʚ�|h`sse7h:r�h:r�5�ojqj^jh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(h�]5�cjojqj^jajh 2e5�cjojqj^jaj#h�o�h�o�5�cjojqj^jajh/y�5�cjojqj^jajh:r�5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj h$-�5�cjojqj^jajo(#h/y�h/y�5�cjojqj^jaj:;<� 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