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��ࡱ�>�� z\��wxy��u �r��bjbj�n�n2��a��a\� ��""��8�let��[l��z�z�z�z�z�z�z$]��_f�zq��z��4n[-(-(-(��z-(��z-(-(-(��vթ��%4-(�zd[0�[-(�_&f<`-(-(�/�_`$��w��-(��z�za&��[��<`��"qs: world development volume 146, issue 10, october 2021 1. title: how village leaders in rural amazonia create bonding, bridging, and linking social capital configurations to achieve development goals, and why they are so difficult to maintain over time authors: mason clay mathews abstract: at the dawn of the 21st century, riverine communities in the brazilian amazon faced natural resource conflicts, land tenure issues, a lack of basic services, and other development challenges. the solutions to these challenges required riverine leaders to not only build extensive social networks, but also forced them to create mutually reinforcing configurations of bonding, bridging, and linking social capital. a position generator survey conducted among a sample of riverine communities in the municipality of l�brea, amazonas confirmed that riverine leaders had more extensive linking social capital than non-leaders. two years of ethnographic research identified the complex micro-sociological processes riverine leaders engaged in to create the configurations of bonding, bridging, and linking social capital required to achieve collective goals. these micro-sociological processes included day-to-day behaviors, actions, interactions, and complex decisions regarding how and when to activate and deactivate relationships. this research indicates that analyzing day-to-day micro-sociological processes is useful not only to understand social capital configurations, but also to understand how some people are able to create more social capital than others. however, while some micro-sociological processes facilitate social capital configurations, others complicate efforts to create and maintain them. this article also illustrates the burdens riverine leaders faced in creating social capital configurations and the challenges of maintaining them over time. this study builds on previous research regarding the role of community leadership in rural development and provides examples of how analyzing micro-sociological processes can help identify the benefits, costs, and burdens of creating the social capital necessary to achieve development goals. 2. title: majoritarian politics and hate crimes against religious minorities: evidence from india, 2009�2018 authors: deepankar basu abstract: did the unprecedented victory of the right-wing, hindu nationalist bharatiya janata party (bjp) in the 2014 national elections in india increase hate crimes against religious minorities? i investigate this question using a difference-in-difference methodology and a novel state-level panel data set for the period 2009�18. to provide context, i offer a brief historical account of hindu nationalism and a descriptive account of anti-minority hate crimes in india between 2009 and 2018. turning to the econometric analysis, i estimate a binary treatment regression model (states where bjp won the largest plurality of votes in the 2014 national elections form the treatment group). my results show that bjp�s electoral victory in 2014 caused an increase in the incidence of hate crimes against religious minorities, especially muslims. i test for robustness of my results by using two falsification tests and a count data model specification. i account for possible omitted variable bias and compute bias-adjusted treatment effects. i conclude that unobserved confounders are unlikely to nullify the results. 3. title: monitoring health services delivery: evidence from civil conflict in nepal authors: nirmal kumar raut; ryuichi tanaka. abstract: the effects of armed conflict on delivery of public services such as health and education is a contested issue. poor health and education have important consequences on the process of human capital formation. we analyze the short- and medium-term effects of the civil conflict in nepal from 1996 to 2006 on individual health status and institutional healthcare utilization. using three waves of nationally representative household surveys before, during, and after the conflict period and by exploiting district level variations in the exposure to conflict, measured by the number of conflict-related casualties, we estimate the relationship between armed conflict and individual health status and healthcare utilization during and after the conflict period. our estimates using the difference-in-differences approach reveal that conflict is associated with short-term improvement in individual health status: a one standard-deviation increase in conflict-related casualties is associated with an approximately 4-percentage point improvement in individual health status, as measured by the incidence of sickness. we find that conflict is associated with both short- and medium-term increases in healthcare utilization; a one standard-deviation increase in conflict-related casualties is associated with an approximately 10-percentage point improvement in individual healthcare utilization probability. we provide evidence for the possible mechanisms of these conflict health associations. we find that improvements in the quality of healthcare services, particularly through maoists� monitoring of staff absenteeism in healthcare facilities, has led to better health outcomes in conflict-intense areas. these findings suggest that monitoring improves the quality of public services provisions and, therefore, is an important tool to ensure the resilience of human capital formation process in conflict-hit societies. 4. title: the role of gender in agent banking: evidence from the democratic republic of congo authors: richard chamboko; robert cull; xavier gin�; soren heitmann; ... morne van der westhuizen. abstract: this paper uses a unique data set with 1.1 million customer transactions from a microfinance institution in the democratic republic of congo from 2017 to 2018. regression analysis of individual-level transaction behavior and customer-agent dyads provides evidence of assortative gender matching in agent banking transactions, as clients prefer to transact with agents of their own gender. female clients show a robust preference for female agents even when they are less available, particularly when making high-value transactions and when they have higher account balances. we also replicate the analysis with a second microfinance institution in senegal and find similar patterns. the underrepresentation of female agents may contribute to the persistent gender gap in financial access and usage in sub-saharan africa. 5. title: air pollution and academic performance: evidence from india authors: uttara balakrishnan; magda tsaneva. abstract: health and well-being during childhood are vital for shaping human capital accumulation. in india, exposure to pollution is increasingly one of the greatest public health challenges facing the country. in this context, we examine the impact of short-run exposure to air pollution on children�s academic performance. using a large-scale dataset from 2008 to 2014, we causally estimate the impacts of contemporaneous air pollution on reading and math outcomes for children aged 5�16 years in rural india. to overcome endogeneity concerns, we use thermal inversions as an instrument for air pollution. we show that high levels of contemporaneous air pollution significantly reduce varying levels of reading outcomes by 1.11�2.39 percentage points and math outcomes by 0.53�1.90 percentage points, with girls and older children witnessing a larger decline. we find that school attendance is the main mechanism explaining these impacts. 6. title: the welfare costs of uncertainty: cross-country evidence authors: kine josefine aurland-bredesen abstract: the paper estimates the welfare costs of uncertainty for six different economic groups of countries. the source of uncertainty is both economic fluctuations and macroeconomic disasters. for each of the groups of countries, the trend growth rate, growth rate volatility, disaster probability, and the size distribution of disasters are estimated. adjacent groups differ significantly in terms of growth and uncertainty, but within each group, the welfare gains of growth and the welfare cost of uncertainty are generally in the same magnitude. however, analysis shows that small increases in growth may have a more significant impact on the welfare costs of uncertainty than large decreases in uncertainty. 7. title: the timing and aggressiveness of early government response to covid-19: political systems, societal culture, and more authors: michael a. nelson abstract: factors that drove the early timing and strictness of government responses to covid-19 for over 150 countries are examined using the daily coronavirus government response tracker data provided by the university of oxford. results show that authoritarian regimes tended to have an initial policy response somewhat weaker relative to democratic regimes at the early stages of the pandemic but pursed more aggressive containment policies over the latter part of the six-month period analyzed. unitary regimes tended to have stronger policy measures in place early on relative to federalist states but relaxed these restrictions sooner. countries with greater freedom (political rights and civil liberties) and those that spend less on public health also exhibited slower early policy responses, but caught up within three to four months after the pandemic reached their country. there is no evidence that women leaders, viewed as a whole, put in place more aggressive polices to combat the virus relative to their male counterparts. nor is there any evidence that either island nations or countries that experienced the start of the pandemic later in the global wave pursued different policies that other nations. policy implications are discussed as the how nations should prepare for future pandemics. 8. title: alternative routes to the institutionalisation of social transfers in sub-saharan africa: political survival strategies and transnational policy coalitions authors: tom lavers; sam hickey. abstract: the new phase of social protection expansion in the global south remains poorly understood. current interpretations of the spread of social transfers in sub-saharan africa tend to emphasize the influence of elections and donor pressure, often by drawing correlations from statistical data, and focusing on the moment of programme adoption. this study adopts a different approach that traces the actual process through which countries have not just adopted but institutionalized social transfers. we test a new theoretical framework through within and cross-case analysis of the degree to which social protection programmes have become institutionalized in eight african countries. two main pathways emerge: the first confirms the sense that both donors and elections matter, but goes further in showing the particular ways in which these drivers combine. in particular, transnational policy coalitions tend to play a leading role in adoption, whereas governments pursue the further institutionalization of social transfers as a top-down response to competitive elections. however, we also identify an alternative pathway that involves electorally uncompetitive countries; here, the primary motivation is not elections but elite perceptions of vulnerability in the face of distributional crises, augmented by ideas and resources from transnational policy coalitions. consequently, the latest phase of social transfer development results from the interplay of political survival strategies and transnational policy coalitions. 9. title: can decentralization lower poverty? cambodia�s commune and sangkat fund authors: ny boret; kishore gawande; daniel p. kobb. abstract: we study a policy, mandated by cambodia�s decentralization laws, that provides central funding to the lowest tier of subnational administration, the 2002 commune sangkat fund (or csf). a large interdisciplinary literature points to the difficult path from decentralization to poverty reduction. for example, fiscal capacity - the ability to raise taxes locally � is deemed necessary for local public goods to be reliably provided. but in poor countries local fiscal capacity simply cannot be built unless there is an income base to tax, which, in turn, requires poverty to be eradicated. using three separate data sets we find three distinct pieces of evidence about the program�s impact. first, the program reduced poverty at the initial as well as subsequent stages. second, we find evidence that investment into rural infrastructure can be pro-poor. third, the program, which amounted to a mere 3% of the national budget, created substantial capital stock over the years in communes and villages and delivered large returns measured in poverty reduction. a message from this study is that when the choice and design of projects are informed by local knowledge and local representation, investment can reduce poverty. 10. title: getting the (gender-disaggregated) lay of the land: impact of survey respondent selection on measuring land ownership and rights authors: talip kilic; heather moylan; gayatri koolwal. abstract: monitoring international goals on land ownership and rights relies fundamentally on the quality of underlying data, which, in the context of surveys, are directly impacted by how respondents are selected. this study leverages two national surveys in malawi that asked households about household members� ownership and rights of agricultural land, but which differed in their approach to respondent selection. compared with the international best practice of privately interviewing adults about their personal asset ownership and rights, the analysis reveals that the business-as-usual approach of interviewing only a most knowledgeable household member on adult members� ownership and rights of agricultural land leads to (i) a higher share of men claiming exclusive reported and economic ownership, and (ii) a lower share of women claiming joint reported and economic ownership. using private interviews of spouses� ownership and rights over the same set of parcels, the analysis also shows that when conflicting claims emerge, proxies for greater household status for women are positively associated with scenarios where women attribute at least some land ownership to themselves. 11. title: from targeted private benefits to public goods: land, distributive politics and changing political conditions in colombia authors: allison l. benson abstract: this paper analyzes how changes in political conditions affect distributive politics. we study the case of colombia, focusing on the strategic allocation of land in relation to the electoral cycle. relying on over 55.000 municipality-year observations on land allocations, exogenous timing of elections and sociodemographic controls, we show that there is a political land cycle (plc), and that this cycle is dependent on the local political conditions in place. we analyze the changes in the plc derived from the implementation of a deep political reform that increased political competition and the fiscal and administrative capacity of the state, doing so heterogeneously across municipalities. we show that the plc decreased by half after the reform, with this reduction being stronger in municipalities in which political competition and fiscal and administrative capacity increased the most. the heterogeneous reduction in the plc does not appear to stem from an aggregate weakening of distributive politics, but rather, from a re-composition of the distributive politics portfolio: away from the allocation of private targeted benefits like land, and towards the strategic allocation of public goods. we discuss the incentive and capacity effects explaining this re-composition likely affecting the relative costs and benefits of different types of distributive politics resources. the results evidence the importance of understanding not only the territorial dimension of distributive politics, but also how the specific traits of resources determine distributive politics strategies and their resilience to contextual changes. 12. title: conflict and health: building on the role of infrastructure authors: shanna a. kirschner; amelia b. finaret. abstract: conflict undermines health. but infrastructure, such as transportation networks, hospitals, and markets, can moderate the effects of conflict on health. we make two primary contributions to this established observation. first, we disentangle important differences in the roles that three types of infrastructure play in moderating the effect of conflict on health. second, we evaluate conflict intensity as a continuous measure, capturing how different types of infrastructure could protect health in conflict-affected areas. we merge geocoded conflict and infrastructure metrics with individual-level child health data as a marker of societal well-being which is particularly sensitive to conflict. our results, which cover 29 sub-saharan african states between 2000 and 2018, indicate that physical infrastructure ameliorates the effects of conflict on health. however, living in remote areas with higher food production also confers significant protection from conflict. this empirical pattern presents a policy challenge since increasing access to markets and reducing the degree of subsistence agriculture is associated with health improvement and economic development over time. living in more populated areas comes with both substantial health benefits and risks. these effects are likely to become more complex as countries in sub-saharan africa continue to urbanize. 13. title: scaling up agriculture? the dynamics of land transfer in inland china authors: sarah rogers; brooke wilmsen; xiao han; zoe ju-han wang; ... christine wong. abstract: major changes are taking place in the chinese countryside. long a smallholder dominant economy with small and fragmented farms, a suite of policies, regulations, and financial instruments are being mobilised to drive larger-scale, more commercialised, and more industrialised farming in china. larger operators such as �dragon-head� agribusinesses are transforming production and supply chains, while the operational rights and titles over farmland are being formalised so that smallholders can more easily transfer their land to large-scale producers. this article aims to deepen our understanding of the extent and nature of land transfer in china by exploring its dynamics in inland provinces. it draws on a 2019 survey of more than 900 cash-cropping farms in four provinces (hebei, shaanxi, hubei and yunnan), semi-structured interviews, and secondary data. our mixed methods approach supports in-depth analysis of the extent and dynamics of land transfer in apple, tea, orange and coffee-growing areas. we find that in contrast to national statistics, land transfer from smallholders to other operators is generally quite limited, a finding which highlights the ongoing viability of specialised smallholder farming and other site-specific barriers to scaling up. in the site where land transfer is most extensive, it is being driven by a state-agribusiness-cooperative alliance rather than through a newly emerged rural land market. we also find that the nature of leasing out farmland is markedly different to leasing in farmland. where it occurs, the leasing out of land tends to be organised and formalised, and is tied to state developmentalist goals, particularly poverty alleviation. the leasing in of land is more widespread and occurs on an informal basis. our analysis highlights key conditions that determine uneven land transfer and confirms that local political-economic dynamics complicate the realisation of central government directives on the ground. 14. title: enforcing government policies: the role of state-owned enterprise in china�s one child policy authors: hua cheng; yuanyuan ma; shusen qi; lixin colin xu. abstract: state-owned enterprises can function as an instrument to enforce government policies. using data from the china general social survey, we evaluate the role and effectiveness of state-owned enterprises in enforcing the one child policy and affecting people�s fertility decisions. the estimates show that the one child policy in china significantly reduced people�s fertility for those working in state-owned enterprises than in non-state-owned firms. the findings are not driven by different fertility desires or other confounding events such as the opening-up policy. such insights have valuable implications for the enforcement of population policies around the globe. 15. title: challenges faced by smallholders in achieving sustainable palm oil certification in indonesia authors: john d. watts; katryn pasaribu; silvia irawan; luca tacconi; ... utami putri manvi. abstract: reducing tropical deforestation caused by the expansion of agricultural and other commodities requires effective and equitable interventions for engaging small-scale producers. interventions should reduce deforestation and environmental degradation while improving the welfare of rural households. voluntary, sustainability certification schemes provide clear pathways and incentives for both large scale and small-scale producers to move towards more sustainable and inclusive commodity production. although the benefits of certification to many small-scale commodity producers are debated, the certification of oil palm smallholders can provide ecological and social benefits under the right conditions. there are significant challenges for smallholders, in particular independent smallholders, to achieve certification. in this article, we evaluate the certification process of 1280 oil palm, independent smallholders and identify the main challenges they faced in achieving certification. we then analyze a dataset over 6261 farmers in central kalimantan, indonesia to estimate which farmers are likely to face obstacles in achieving sustainability certification. the results of the study indicate that farmers that have been excluded by historical planning and agricultural extension programs as well as smallholder plantation schemes are disproportionately disadvantaged in comparison with farmers that were supported by these schemes. the results demonstrate that without the involvement of government and support from non-government or private sector actors, independent smallholders are unlikely to achieve voluntary, sustainability certification. to avoid the exclusion of smallholders from supply chains, a systematic effort would be required to overcome many of these structural disadvantages. novel, multi-stakeholder approaches, in which the private sector and civil society organizations collaborate with subnational governments, may assist in overcoming these challenges. 16. title: coping with climate shocks: the complex role of livestock portfolios authors: alejandro acosta; francesco nicolli; panagiotis karfakis. abstract: the effects of climate change are alarming, with projections suggesting that weather events will become more extreme and frequent, affecting households in regions that are already highly vulnerable. this study explores the role of livestock as a household coping strategy against climate shocks. using quantile regression analysis, we examine the potential of different animal species to buffer the effects of drought on income and consumption. we assemble a unique global dataset that combines household-level socioeconomic information with a multi-scalar climatic drought index. our study confirms the significant, yet context-dependent, role of livestock portfolios as a buffering mechanism against the effects of drought on household income and consumption. the effect is driven by the specific type of animal species, length of the shock, and socioeconomic features. these findings could assist the design of livestock-oriented policy interventions. the novel contributions of this study include the first cross-country analysis of the buffering effect of livestock against drought; use of the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index as a multi-scalar drought indicator -; and a uniquely extensive dataset allowing for the analysis of interactions. 17. title: can weak ties create social capital? evidence from self-help groups in rural india authors: ashwini deshpande; shantanu khanna. abstract: the �strength of weak ties� has been established in the context of labour market outcomes, with theoretical and empirical investigation showing how weak ties lead to an increase in mobility and job opportunities. the impact of weak ties on community organisation is less well understood. we contribute to this literature by investigating if weak ties, generated via membership of livelihood programmes, can lead to the creation or enhancement of social capital. based on data from one of the largest independent primary surveys for india, we find that participation in self-help groups had little impact on livelihoods, but led to the creation of significant social capital, as measured by indicators related to personal efficacy and collective action. we use entropy balancing to estimate mean effects to tackle the problem of non-random selection into the programme. in contrast to the bulk of existing evidence on livelihood programmes that is based on small samples, our large sample size and innovative survey design allow us to detect a larger number of effects with greater certainty. we argue that the social capital generated by the programme is a significant positive impact (even though the main target of the programme is to strengthen livelihoods), as it strengthens the process of women�s empowerment. 18. title: flooding and child health: evidence from pakistan authors: osama sajid; leah e.m. bevis. abstract: we examine the impact of flooding in pakistan on child health using satellite data and two household datasets. flooding may influence child health, as measured by weight-for-height z-score, through two key channels. first, excessive flood waters can catalyze the spread of diarrheal disease, negatively impacting child health. second, excessive flood waters � even when damaging in some areas � provide water to rice paddies and other agriculture, increasing food availability in the post-flood period. this may positively influence child health. in pakistan, we find evidence of both channels: floods increase incidence of morbidity (diarrhea and fever) as well as meal frequency in the post flood season. we also find that floods increase dietary diversity, but only in districts with high rice harvesting intensity where flooding may predict favorable growing conditions. because these mechanisms (disease incidence and dietary adequacy) act against one another, we find weak overall impact of floods on child health. 19. title: across the stolen ponds: the political geography of social welfare in rural eastern india authors: ritanjan das; subhasish dey; ranjita neogi. abstract: despite a strong state and a slew of poverty reduction/welfare programmes, the provision of basic services to the rural poor in india remains puzzlingly inadequate. moving away from the usual trend of aggregate welfare impact analysis that characterises most studies on this theme, we explore the on-ground distributive politics around the implementation of india�s flagship social welfare programme, the national rural employment guarantee scheme (nregs). based on a mixed-method study in the state of west bengal, using observational primary data and ethnographic material across 46 sample village councils (gram panchayats) from 2013 to 2018, we draw attention to the non-homogeneity in the way political incentives of welfare provision are orientated towards different parties and individual stakeholders. in doing so, we traverse across multiple domains of political economic concepts, particularly that of partisan alignment, clientelism and patronage, and unpack the differentiated constellation of localised political incentives founded on a unique form of transactional paradigm called settings. we show how these on-ground transactions provide a multitude of political incentives for ruling/opposition political parties and panchayat functionaries, often going beyond conventional ethno-favouritism ideas of patronage and assuming a more personalised context. in turn, we also argue that the idea of settings is useful in providing a deeper understanding of local state-society relations and the political geography of welfare provisions in rural eastern india. 20. title: in a network of lines that intersect: the socio-economic development impact of marine resource management and conservation in southeast asia authors: marco j. haenssgen; jessica savage; godwin yeboah; nutcha charoenboon; sorn srenh. abstract: marine protected areas (mpas) are rapidly spreading to meet global conservation targets, but new governance arrangements can have unintended impacts on socio-economic development that can undermine and counteract their intended outcomes. we use an exploratory mixed-method research design to understand these development impacts and their underlying mechanisms, guided by an innovative activity space framework that situates marine resource management and conservation in a network of relationships between communities, human services, and nature. qualitative research � based on 22 interviews in koh sdach archipelago, cambodia � demonstrates how the local community experienced improving relationships with the state and a slowing deterioration of marine resources, but also social division, heightened livelihood anxiety, and potentially a false sense of economic security. we hypothesise on this basis that marine conservation could impede socio-economic development, for which we find support in our quantitative analysis across cambodia, the philippines, and timor-leste: mpas materialised in better-off communities but were associated with slower and partly regressive socio-economic development, in particular decreasing wealth and increasing child mortality. these findings suggest that the rapid global expansion of mpa coverage in its current, environmental-conservation-focused form is problematic as it disregards local social realities. livelihood adaptation support should complement the implementation of marine resource governance mechanisms to mitigate unintended negative consequences. 21. title: grassroots mobilization in brazil�s urban amazon: global investments, persistent floods, and local resistance across political and legal arenas authors: vitor m. dias; pedro paulo de miranda ara�jo soares; eduardo s. brondizio; sandra helena ribeiro cruz. abstract: by the 1980s, the brazilian amazon was already an urbanized forest. a large portion of its population was living in non-rural areas attracted by better service provisioning and economic opportunities in fast-developing urban centers. located at the amazon estuary-delta, bel�m is the amazon�s largest metropolitan area, marked by informal urban expansion, and serving as an illustrative case of the opportunities and challenges with which urban populations deal in the region. faced with significant pressures of absent infrastructure, high rates of poverty, precarious settlements, and ever more frequent flood events, already in the 1980s, bel�m was home to the biggest urban reform project of its time in latin america: the macro-drainage project of the una river watershed. costing over 300 million usd, the project was intended to have a multilevel governance system through which the inter-american development bank and local government could coordinate project activities. yet, due to the combination of poor infrastructure and changing rainfall patterns, about half a million people currently remain vulnerable to flood hazards and property damages. our analysis uses a socio-legal approach to studying grassroots mobilization against the violation of social and environmental rights aggravated by floods. we also draw on ostrom�s concepts of action arena and action situation to examine collective action across political and legal arenas within which individuals, grassroots organizations, and the state negotiate/contest flood-related issues. conducting archival and ethnographic research, we find a story of conflict and cooperation between the civil society and political and legal actors, which accounts for a mix of optimism and skepticism regarding the improvement in the livelihood of the urban poor affected by this developmental program. this interdisciplinary lens contributes to understanding the limits and potentials of collective action to address, whether through political and/or legal mobilization, urban inequalities and social vulnerability to environmental and climate change. 22. title: a revisit of farm size and productivity: empirical evidence from a wide range of farm sizes in nigeria authors: oluwatoba j. omotilewa; t.s. jayne; milu muyanga; adebayo b. aromolaran; ... titus awokuse. abstract: the relationship between farm size and productivity has been studied extensively in the agricultural and development economics literature. however, most of the documented evidence in sub-saharan africa (ssa) is based on samples of small-scale farms operating 5 ha or less, with very little evidence assessing this relationship over a wider range of farm sizes. this omission is especially important considering the rapid expansion of medium-scale farms in much of africa. this study examines the farm size-productivity relationship over a range of farms between zero and 40 ha in nigeria. it also tests whether there is heterogeneity in productivity within medium-scale farms depending on how they came into being. using four measures of productivity, empirical estimates reveal a u-shaped relationship where the ir holds between zero and about 22 ha, turning positive afterwards. moreover, when medium-scale farms are distinguished between those who were actively engaged as small-scale farmers and stepped up/expanded their scale of operation and those who were primarily in non-farm employment and later stepped into medium-scale farming, the turning point for farmers who stepped up into medium-scale farming is at 11 ha, in contrast to 22 ha for those who stepped in. further evidence suggests heterogeneity in productivity within medium-scale farms depending on whether the owner-operators stepped up or stepped into medium-scale farming. these findings imply that policies facilitating smallholders� ability to expand the scale of their activities could contribute substantially to growth in farm productivity, agricultural commercialization and increase in food security in nigeria, although in most areas only a small proportion of smallholder households are in a position to do this. 23. title: what do test scores really capture? evidence from a large-scale student assessment in mexico authors: rafael de hoyos; ricardo estrada; mar�a jos� vargas. abstract: this paper studies the relationship between test scores and cognitive skills using two longitudinal data sets that track student performance in a national standardized exam in grades 6, 9, and 12 and post-secondary school outcomes in mexico. exploiting a large sample of twins to control for all between-family differences in school, household, and neighborhood inputs, we find that primary school test scores are a strong predictor of secondary education outcomes. using a data set that links results in the national standardized test to later outcomes, we find that secondary school test scores predict university enrollment and hourly wages. these results indicate that, despite their limitations, large-scale student assessments can capture the skills they are meant to measure and can therefore be used to monitor student learning in developing countries. 24. title: self-help groups as platforms for development: the role of social capital authors: carly nichols abstract: women-led self-help groups (shgs) are increasingly being utilized as platforms for delivering development activities by funding agencies and governmental bodies. however, there is currently little understanding as to whether shgs are effective or equitable platforms for delivering health or livelihoods interventions. social capital is hypothesized as a comparative advantage when utilizing shgs as development platforms, however the specific mechanisms have yet to be explored. this paper investigates the efficacy and equity of shgs as platforms for development programs through analyzing 64 interviews and 6 focus group discussions collected from an agriculture and behavior change intervention delivered through shgs in eastern india. we find that while, theoretically, shgs are a promising platform for health messaging this is largely dependent on shg norms of attendance, which itself is closely tied to socioeconomic conditions and social capital. social capital is important both within shgs as well as between shgs and the implementing organization. sites with more mature shgs had greater economic security allowing more active participation in the intervention than sites with more poverty and young shgs. the former sites also had greater norms of trust and reciprocity (social capital) with the implementing organization that led them to accept additional interventions. in the latter sites, shg members had competing demands on their time and less trust in the implementers, making it difficult to attend both shg meetings and health sessions. we put forth a materialist understanding of social capital formation, where shg members must have already received substantive benefit from membership for new activities to be successfully incorporated into their agenda. further, using shgs as a nutrition message delivery platform should not detract from individual engagement with more vulnerable members of the community. 25. title: when armed groups refuse to carry out election violence: evidence from nigeria authors: megan turnbull abstract: social science research on election violence shows that incumbents regularly turn to different nonstate armed groups to organize violence during elections, including ethnic militias, gangs, criminal organizations, and paramilitaries, among others. less well known are the motivations of these different actors, what they seek to gain from election violence, and when they turn down incumbents� overtures. from a practitioner perspective, understanding when armed groups supply election violence for incumbents is important because of the severe consequences of such acts, including economic hardship, forced displacement, damaged infrastructure, and costs to human life. the paper asks: under what conditions do armed groups agree or refuse to perpetrate election violence for incumbents? drawing on most similar case studies of the ijaw youth council and the o�odua people�s congress in nigeria, we find that internal armed group politics help to explain how these actors respond to incumbent governors� demands for election violence. specifically, groups divided by leadership rivalries agree to perpetrate election violence for incumbents whereas those with cohesive leadership refuse to do so. leaders of rival factions accept money and arms from incumbents to try to eliminate their competitors, and in exchange, agree to organize violence during elections for their incumbent sponsors. in contrast, groups with cohesive leadership turn down incumbents� overtures given the risks of cooptation and weakened community support. the findings contribute to our understanding of how election violence is co-produced by elites and nonstate armed groups by explaining the motivations and decisions of the latter. more broadly, the paper speaks to larger questions about security challenges in developing democracies. the findings also highlight the need for greater attention to interventions to prevent armed groups from engaging in election violence on behalf of political elites. 26. title: contesting large-scale land acquisitions in the global south authors: jan s�ndig abstract: as agricultural investors have acquired large tracts of land in the global south recently, many affected communities and civil society groups have contested what they perceive as land grabbing. these communities have struggled to retain their land, protect their livelihoods, or benefit from the investment. there has been much academic interest in these conflicts. studying the emerging literature, this review identifies the main theoretical perspectives and synthesizes the case study evidence. the goal is to better understand how communities contest large-scale land acquisitions (lslas) and to explain their tactics. for this purpose, a sample was collected that consists of 46 studies and 28 lsla cases from the global south. since most of these studies adopt single theoretical perspectives from resistance research, the present study links multiple theoretical strands, most importantly everyday resistance, contentious politics, and legal mobilization. based on the cases reviewed, the analysis shows that the tactics of contention are diverse but can also be grouped into three repertoires. it is found that affected communities use everyday resistance mostly when they face particularly unfavorable circumstances. in contrast, certain political opportunities and involvement of local leaders enable organized protests through either collective action or rights-based contention. overall, this study contributes to the literature not only by bringing together case observations to see the big picture, but also by identifying the main repertoires, tentative frequencies of tactics, and less relevant circumstances and mechanisms. in practical terms, the findings suggest that development and civil society actors can play important roles for assisting rural populations and local leaders in fending off land grabs. 27. title: the politics of labour relations in global production networks: collective action, industrial parks, and local conflict in the ethiopian apparel sector authors: carlos oya; florian schaefer. abstract: in this paper we examine the emerging politics of labour agency as new manufacturing locations are incorporated into existing global production networks, using the example of the ethiopian apparel industry. the ethiopian state has employed an active space-based industrial policy to attract leading apparel manufacturers into a series of new industrial parks in the country. both investors and the ethiopian government expected to find a large and pliant labour force willing to work for low wages. however, the new sector has already seen a wave of collective and individual resistance from workers. we ask which factors contribute to drive and constrain labour agency and shape the specific forms it takes in firms tied into leading global production networks. drawing on a large-n quantitative survey of factory workers and in-depth qualitative interviews with managers, workers, trade union representatives and government officials, we show how the quality of industrial relations depends not just on state action and the business strategies of lead firms in production networks, but also on variegated forms of labour agency used both by organised and unorganised ethiopian workers. we find that many industrial conflicts result from the collision of the productivity imperatives of manufacturing firms tied into demanding, but low value-added, segments of global production networks with the expectations of workers with limited prior experience in industrial jobs, but are compounded by the contradictory actions of different state agencies, a lack of formal unionisation, and the contingent interactions of factory based grievances with local political conflicts. industrial parks emerge as spaces of particular contestation. our findings highlight the need to adopt an understanding of labour regimes grounded in local political realities. these findings have implications for the design of industrial policies and labour market institutions aiming to support firms and workers in emerging manufacturing clusters. 28. title: patronage or policy? the politics of property rights formalization in kenya authors: alex dyzenhaus abstract: scholarship on african and other developing societies often argues that governments allocate private goods as political patronage, but recent work has called this assumption into question. in this study, i argue that clientelism is a political strategy that emerges only under certain conditions. in a least likely case of land allocation in kenya, where the literature assumes clientelism to predominate, i ask under what conditions do states distribute resources to fulfil programmatic policy needs versus clientelistic goals? to answer this question, i use a historical process tracing approach that triangulates descriptive data from an original dataset on land allocation programs in kenya from 1953 until 2017 with archival research and semi-structured interviews. i find that the choice between policy and patronage depends on two domestic conditions: a) the interaction between national political competition and regime type and b) the state�s ability to control resources vis-a-vis local competitors. in an authoritarian regime, competition is conducive to clientelism, but in a democratic regime, competition may well produce programmatic policy, while local actors� challenges to centralized resource allocation reduce a government�s ability to use clientelism and favor programmatic allocation as ruling elites struggle to control resource allocation for their own political ends. i conclude that the allocation of rights to land in kenya demonstrates that politics in developing countries occurs in a hybrid neopatrimonial system rather than a purely patronage-based one, in which changes in politics can alter how a government distributes resources. this has ramifications for how scholars and practitioners must rethink questions of property rights, corruption, political linkages and development in many countries where we assume that private goods are allocated on a clientelistic logic. 29. title: how does governance mediate links between ecosystem services and poverty alleviation? results from a systematic mapping and thematic synthesis of literature authors: fiona nunan; mary menton; constance l. mcdermott; mark huxham; kate schreckenberg. abstract: many efforts to improve the sustainable management of renewable natural resources in low- and middle-income countries seek to achieve �win-win� outcomes � improved ecosystem health and improved livelihoods. yet achieving such win�win outcomes is challenging, since many variables affect the potential for synergies. these variables include the quality and performance of governance. we conducted a systematic mapping of the literature and a thematic synthesis to identify how governance mediates relationships between ecosystem services and poverty alleviation. the systematic mapping focused on identifying which components of governance are studied and how much attention each geographic region and natural resource has received. we found that the literature is �clumped�, with some governance components, geographic areas and sectors studied well, and others poorly. the thematic synthesis drew on 191 papers and found very little literature that looked at the three areas of governance, ecosystem health/services and poverty alleviation/livelihoods together in detail, with little evidence of interdisciplinary investigation. much of the research instead focuses on either governance itself or governance and livelihoods or governance and ecosystem health/services. three key analytical themes were identified in response to the research question, which are that: locally owned and inclusive governance increases the potential for ecosystem services to deliver on improved livelihoods; there are often multiple governance structures and systems in place making causality difficult to trace, though such multiplicity creates opportunities for improved governance, ecosystem health and livelihoods as well as challenges; and, appropriate and adequate incentives are needed for governance to mediate positive links between ecosystem services and poverty alleviation. 30. title: multichain strategies and economic upgrading in global value chains: evidence from kenyan horticulture authors: giovanni pasquali; aarti krishnan; matthew alford. abstract: an extensive body of research has examined the prospects for suppliers in the global south to upgrade within global value chains (gvcs) controlled by lead firms from, and oriented towards end-markets in, the global north. however, the expansion of south-south trade has altered the geography of gvcs. previous studies highlight key differences between north-south value chains (nvcs) and south-south value chains (svcs). much less is known about the multichain strategies used by suppliers who participate simultaneously in nvcs and svcs, and how these affect their prospects for economic upgrading. this article draws on the case of kenyan horticultural suppliers to explore the implications of multichain strategies for economic upgrading, in terms of value-added tasks (product diversification and product sophistication) and economic returns (unit values). we adopt a mixed-methods approach combining transaction-level customs data for the 2006�2018 period with supplier interviews. we find that suppliers adopting multichain strategies experienced significantly more product diversification and higher economic returns than suppliers operating only in nvcs or svcs, yet results for product sophistication are insignificant. our results are robust to the use of multilevel linear regressions (mlrs), propensity score matching (psm), and two-step system-gmm. the article highlights a critical need for gvc research to account for the multichain strategies of suppliers serving multiple and overlapping value chains, and their implications for economic upgrading. 31. title: discourses of evaluation: institutional logics and organizational practices among international development agencies authors: mary kay gugerty; george e. mitchell; francisco j. santamarina. abstract: for several decades, the aid effectiveness movement has called for more robust, informed and independent impact evaluation of aid activities, but the prevalence and adoption of these practices remain unclear. this article seeks to understand the current state of impact evaluation practice in the development field by examining standard-setting documents intended to guide the behavior of entities involved in development assistance. we explore these standards as representations of institutional logics that encode current norms, practices, and expectations for these actors and examine the extent to which impact evaluation norms and practices are enshrined within these standard-setting documents. to do so, we examine guidance from a diverse set of 42 standards to better understand how evaluation is conceptualized and what standards are being articulated. we find both convergence and divergence in the institutional logics employed and in how evaluation norms and practices are incorporated into standards. we see convergence in the adoption of a normative, process-oriented logic that appears across many entities in the widely articulated commitment to practices such as information sharing, participation, and listening. we find more divergence in the adoption of a results-oriented logic that implies a commitment to impact evaluation. these distinct logics give rise to two discrete discourses: an �evaluation generalist� discourse that conceptualizes evaluation in broad terms and an �impact centric� discourse that articulates a more comprehensive set of principles emphasizing causal attribution. we suggest that structural characteristics and positionality in the aid system may help explain the adoption of different institutional logics and associated evaluation practices. 32. title: experts and resource users split over solutions to peatland fires authors: jacob phelps; aiora zabala; willy daeli; rachel carmenta. abstract: we provide empirical evidence that supports a commonly-held assumption: that experts� appraisals of policy options are often very distinct from those of resource users most affected by those policy choices. we analyse perspectives about 40 policy options to address peatland fires in indonesia, using a q methodology approach to rank the options according to perceived effectiveness. peatland fires in indonesia are a long-standing and complex social-ecological challenge, where unsolved disagreements about policy options have profound implications for environmental governance, resulting in fires recurring and causing significant co2 emissions and transboundary haze that affects the health of millions. we collected data from 219 respondents, covering twelve stakeholder categories, including small and large landholders, industrial farmers, scientists, local leaders and government officials. we identified the most representative response from each stakeholder category, and used hierarchical cluster analysis to explore the closeness/distance in perspectives among categories. the results show a particularly noticeable distinction between two broad groups, which we labelled as experts and resource users. experts tend to prefer solutions that are centralised and largely transformative, whereas resource users favour more localised measures that are more compatible with business-as-usual. we discuss possible reasons for these differences, and their implications for environmental governance, including for how scientists engage in policy. 33. title: is conventional wisdom about resource taxation correct? mining evidence from transparency reporting authors: eric adebayo; addisu a. lashitew; eric werker. abstract: this paper theoretically and empirically investigates the factors that determine the government �take� in gold mining projects around the world. we develop a theoretical model to predict the government take, which we define as the ratio of total payments to the government from a mining project (including taxes, fees, and royalties) relative to the mining company�s pre-tax net revenue from the same project. in line with investment decision theory, our model predicts that governments should decrease their take on mining operations to compensate multinational corporate investors for increased local development costs and political and macroeconomic risk. however, our empirical investigation shows that higher country risk is actually associated with greater government take. extending the model, we find that political economy variables have as much predictive power in explaining the government take as the basic investment theory model. 34. title: out of sight, out of mind? terror in the home country, family reunification options, and the well-being of refugees authors: sekou keita; paul schewe. abstract: in this paper, we ask whether the main cause of asylum migration, that is, violence in the home country, still affects the life satisfaction of refugees even after they reach a safe country. we combine individual-level survey data on refugees in germany with country-level data on terror fatalities. the timing of the survey interviews generates exogenous variation in the intensity of recent terror activity in respondents� countries of origin, which we exploit to assess the effect of terror fatalities on the level of self-reported life satisfaction. our results indicate that fatalities due to terror activity reduce, on average, the level of life satisfaction reported by refugees. we find that this effect is most substantial for events occurring one or two days before the interview, while older events have no effect. however, we observe an effect of fatalities during the four weeks preceding the interview on persons who have a family member abroad. we show that the group of respondents with a rejected or pending asylum application without legal family reunification options mostly drives this effect. 35. title: democracy, hybrid regimes, and inequality: the divergent effects of contestation and inclusiveness authors: mathew y.h. wong abstract: this study examines the effects of democracy and hybrid regimes on income inequality. despite strong theoretical arguments for the redistributive impact of democracy, empirical evidence of this phenomenon is inconclusive. this study helps to solve this puzzle by suggesting that the two key dimensions of democracy, contestation and inclusiveness/participation, have opposite effects on inequality. whereas contestation provides incentives for politicians to redistribute, suffrage or participation alone (without competition) affords elites further control over the population and reduces its redistributive threat. therefore, electoral authoritarianism (characterized by high inclusiveness and medium contestation) is also expected to be more unequal than either democratic or authoritarian regimes. these arguments are primarily supported by the results of instrumental variable regressions of data from 135 countries from 1971 to 2015 and are supplemented by some qualitative evidence. 36. title: adoption of agricultural technology in the developing world: a meta-analysis of the empirical literature authors: sacha ruzzante; ricardo labarta; amy bilton. abstract: agricultural technologies have long been promoted by governments and development organizations as effective ways to increase farm productivity and reduce poverty. however, adoption of many seemingly beneficial technologies remains low. empirical adoption studies attempt to identify the motivation for adoption based on differences in characteristics between adopters and non-adopters. this study investigates variables that regularly explain adoption across technologies and contexts using a meta-analysis of 367 regression models from the published literature. we find that, on average, farmer education, household size, land size, access to credit, land tenure, access to extension services, and organization membership positively correlate with the adoption of many agricultural technologies. technologies in the categories of improved varieties and chemical inputs are adopted more readily on larger farms, which casts doubt on the scale-neutrality of these technologies. agricultural credit can positively influence adoption, but researchers should measure whether farmers are credit constrained, rather than simply whether or not they have access to credit. while extension services may substitute for education in the case of improved varieties, the two variables appear to be complementary for natural resource management technologies. land tenure can encourage adoption of natural resource management techniques, and we find it to be most influential in the adoption of technologies with long planning horizons, such as erosion control methods. unsurprisingly, although some patterns are identified when results are averaged, most adoption determinants vary widely by technology, cultural context, and geography. based on these observations, we provide some recommendations for adoption researchers and policy makers, but, given the variability of the results, conclude that efforts to promote agricultural technologies in the developing world must be adapted to suit local agricultural and cultural contexts. 37. title: is landownership a ladder out of poverty? authors: laurent l. cellarier abstract: this paper presents a theoretical analysis of the demo-economic effects of landownership in an agrarian economy facing population pressure. a family production structure with overlapping-generations is considered in which fertility is driven by an old-age security motive and two land property rights regimes coexist. using the tragedy of the commons hypothesis, the model shows that the lack of landownership may contribute to high fertility, low capital investment and thus low living standards. by internalizing the land dilution effect of fertility, a private land regime lowers the population pressure, stimulates capital investment, and eases the poverty trap. these results cannot be obtained through productivity improvement measures and hold under various income allocation schemes among family members namely altruistic, perfectly competitive and egalitarian. the simulated joint behavior of fertility, capital investment and income per capita is consistent with the general agreement that more secure land rights are key determinants of economic development, and with numerous empirical evidences on the demoeconomic effects of landownership in some developing countries and in history. 38. title: the effect of parental migration on the schooling of children left behind in rural cambodia authors: francesca marchetta; sokcheng sim. abstract: growing rural-to-urban and international migration flows have sparked concerns about the investments in the education of the children left behind in cambodia. we draw on a panel household-level survey conducted in rural villages in 2014 and 2017 to analyse the relationship between parental migration and children�s schooling. the analysis shows that children of migrant parents complete less years of schooling than children of non-migrant parents. we find a bigger effect for children whose parents migrated abroad, for children aged 12 to 17, and for maternal migration. the effect persists over time, with parental migration in 2014 influencing schooling in 2017. we exploit the longitudinal dimension of the data to estimate a placebo, which greatly reduces the concerns related to the possible confounding effect of time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. the negative effect that we find appears to be driven by the reduced parental input in children's education rather than by an increase in children�s work. 39. title: falling price induced diversification strategies and rural inequality: evidence of smallholder rubber farmers authors: shaoze jin; shi min; jikun huang; hermann waibel. abstract: while the expansions of natural rubber in the greater mekong region from the 1990s were ambitious, the persistently low commodity price of rubber from 2012 makes smallholder rubber farmers suffer from vulnerable livelihoods. this study sheds light on the adjustments in livelihood strategies of smallholder rubber farmers when the upsurge in rubber prices came to an end. based on the two-wave panel data from some 600 smallholder rubber farmers in the upper mekong region, southern yunnan province of china, this study shows the diversification strategies of smallholders in response to falling rubber prices and examines the impacts of livelihood diversification strategies on farmer income and rural inequality. the results suggest that smallholder rubber farmers tend to shift family labor from farms to off-farm employment and diversify their livelihoods in the context of declining rubber prices. notably, farmers with relatively low dependence on rubber are more likely to diversify their livelihoods. the falling price induced diversification strategy makes smallholders more resilient against future risks and narrows the rural income gap. the findings of this study advance the literature by providing evidence on how farmers' livelihood strategy and rural inequality change in the face of periodical rubber price volatility. 40. title: the color of water: the contributions of green and blue water to agricultural productivity in the western brazilian amazon authors: jill caviglia-harris; trent biggs; elvino ferreira; daniel w. harris; ... erin o. sills. abstract: deforestation and global climate change are predicted to affect precipitation and agricultural productivity in the amazon. anecdotal evidence suggests that farmers are already being affected by changes in the timing and amount of precipitation, but there is little quantitative evidence on the mechanism by which precipitation affects production. this paper uses an innovative application of remote sensing and meteorological data to separate rainfall into green water (soil moisture that contributes to plant water use) and blue water (surface water), to estimate the impact of these water sources on the production and production efficiency of dairy in a mature colonization zone of the brazilian amazon. this approach allows us to draw inferences about different pathways through the precipitation-production causal chain and to link changes in precipitation with impacts on farm profits and welfare. we find that production and production efficiency are affected by green and blue water and that reductions in rainfall will have negative impacts that may disproportionally impact the poor. our methods and results are informative to economists interested in this relatively new application of remote sensing data, to geographers interested in identifying the role of green and blue water in agricultural production, and more generally to researchers interested in the impacts of rainfall and water availability on small-scale producers in the brazilian amazon. 41. title: a multidimensional perspective on child labor in the value chain: the case of the cocoa value chain in west africa authors: milande busquet; niels bosma; harry hummels. abstract: the international labor organization (ilo) states that most agricultural work carried out by children occurs within the family unit, is generally unpaid and often hazardous in its nature and/or in the circumstances in which it is carried out. at the same time, some scholars nuance this view by positing that children who work in agriculture in the spheres of their own household are not necessarily exploited. making progress in addressing (worst forms of) child labor by value chain actors necessitates unpacking the complex dynamics, context and interlinkages that connect firms and farms at the local community level. this study responds to this call by proposing a new multidimensional perspective on child labor based on comparing and contrasting global value chain (gvc) literature and the sustainable livelihood approach (sla). adopting such a perspective allows for an explanation of both vertical dynamics, including global inter-firm linkages and power distribution, as well as horizontal dynamics, such as local norms and values, access to capitals and livelihood trajectories that contribute to the occurrence of child labor. this framework is illustrated by a case study on child labor in the cocoa value chain in ghana and c�te d�ivoire, based on information obtained from a variety of sources, including 38 key informant interviews, 12 focus group discussions and structural observations. this study shows that children are not only factors of production, but are socially embedded in family structures and local communities. children participate in a wider range of rural and agricultural activities as part of rural upbringing and learning a livelihood, in which not only harms but also benefits can occur. these findings advance the discussion by moving away from a dichotomy on child labor as a good or bad practice and putting the development opportunities of children center stage. 42. title: deliberate displacement during conflict: evidence from colombia authors: antonella bandiera abstract: do economic incentives explain forced displacement during conflict? this paper examines this question in colombia, which has had one of the world�s most acute situations of internal displacement associated with conflict. using data on the price of bananas along with data on historical levels of production, i find that price increases generate more forced displacement in municipalities more suitable to produce this good. however, i also show that this effect is concentrated in the period in which paramilitary power and operations reached an all-time peak. additional evidence shows that land concentration among the rich has increased substantially in districts that produce these goods. these findings are consistent with extensive qualitative evidence that documents the link between economic interests and local political actors who collude with illegal armed groups to forcibly displace locals and appropriate their land, especially in areas with more informal land tenure systems, like those where bananas are grown more frequently. 43. title: from criminals to citizens: the applicability of bolivia�s community-based coca control policy to peru authors: thomas grisaffi; linda farthing; kathryn ledebur; maritza paredes; alvaro pastor. abstract: between 2006 and 2019, bolivia emerged as a world leader in formulating a participatory, non-violent model to gradually limit coca production in a safe and sustainable manner while simultaneously offering farmers realistic economic alternatives to coca. our study finds that not only has this model reduced violence, but it has effectively expanded social and civil rights in hitherto marginal regions. in contrast, peru has continued to conceptualize �drugs� as a crime and security issue. this has led to u.s.-financed forced crop eradication, putting the burden onto impoverished farmers, generating violence and instability. at the request of farmers, the peruvian government has made a tentative move towards implementing one aspect of bolivia�s community control in peru. could it work? we address this question by focusing on participatory development with a special emphasis on the role of local organizations and the relationship between growers and the state. drawing on long-term ethnographic fieldwork, interviews, focus group discussions and secondary research, we find that for community control to have any chance of success in peru, grassroots organizations must be strengthened and grower trust in the state created. the study also demonstrates that successful participatory development in drug crop regions is contingent on land titling and robust state investment, which strengthens farmer resolve to participate so as to avoid a return to the repression of the past. 44. title: down and up the u a synthetic cohort (panel) analysis of female labor force participation in turkey, 1988 2013 authors: 0nsan tunal1; murat g. k1rdar; meltem day1olu. abstract: we study the aggregate labor force participation behavior of women over a 25-year period in turkey using a synthetic panel approach. in our decomposition of age, year, and cohort effects, we use three apc models that have received close scrutiny of the demography community. the exercise is repeated by rural/urban status and by education to tease out some key differences in behavior. our comparative methodology yields remarkably consistent profiles for most subsamples, but not all. notably all methods reveal an m-shaped age profile attributable to child-bearing related interruptions in rural areas and for low-educated women in urban areas. we also find that younger cohorts among the least-educated women are more likely to participate, contrary to the belief that culture stands in the way. the evidence we compiled confirms that turkey has reached the turning point of the u-shaped pattern in female labor force participation observed in countries where agriculture initially accounts for a large fraction of employment. we dwell on methodological issues throughout the paper and seek explanations for the occasional fragility of the methods. we establish that evolution of the linear trend present in the cross-section age profiles is responsible for the differences in the findings. despite the apparent inconsistency, the models we use are consistent in recovering the turning points of the age, period, and cohort profiles. 45. title: impact of agricultural extension services on the adoption of improved wheat variety in ethiopia: a cluster randomized controlled trial authors: asresu yitayew; awudu abdulai; yigezu a. yigezu; tilaye t. deneke; girma t. kassie. abstract: although many studies have shown that sub-saharan african countries could increase agricultural productivity and output through better technologies and improved crop varieties, the adoption of yield-enhancing technologies by smallholder farmers in the region still remains very low. in this paper, we use a cluster randomized controlled trial to examine whether improved extension services influence smallholder farmers� decisions to try a newly introduced improved wheat variety in ethiopia. the experiment involved demonstration trials and field days, and improved capacity of development agents in facilitation and communication skills. the empirical results revealed that farmers� decisions to try the newly introduced wheat variety were highest in the villages where demonstration trials and field days, and improvements in the development agents� facilitation and communication capacity were introduced simultaneously. we also found a positive effect of improved extension services on yields, and the use of chemical fertilizer, herbicides and pesticides, but only the use of herbicides and pesticides were statistically significant. our findings provide some insights into the significance of revisiting the curriculums of the technical and vocational education and training, and farmers� training centers. 46. title: water and power, water�s power: state-making and socionature shaping volatile rivers and riverine people in mexico authors: anja nygren abstract: water-related disasters have become more unpredictable amidst human-induced climatic and hydroecological changes, with profound effects on people inhabiting fragile river basins. in this article, i analyse drastic waterscape transformations and people�s differentiated exposure to water-related vulnerabilities in the grijalva river lower basin, southeastern mexico, focusing on how state authority is reinforced through waterscape alterations and how altered waterscapes shape state-making and scalar politics. examining interlinkages between 1) state-making and governance; 2) resource-making and politics of scale; and 3) hazard-making and the dynamics of socionature, the article contributes to scholarly and development practice discussions on environmental vulnerability. i argue that the goals of consolidating state power and promoting development through massive waterscape changes and resource extractions have provoked hazards that are difficult to control, resulting in differentiated distribution of environmental benefits and burdens. drawing on archival research, documentary analysis, thematic interviews, and ethnographic fieldwork, the study illustrates the overlapping and cumulative effects of state-making, politics of scale, and the dynamics of socionature on socially differentiated vulnerability. although the forms of governance shift over time, statecraft as a mode of consolidating state authority and controlling lower-basin environments and residents persists. the government prevents social mobilisation through political persuasion and pressure, and disciplines residents to adapt to altered waterscapes, while allowing few changes in prevalent power structures. simultaneously, the study demonstrates that water cannot be controlled by political rules and requisites, while local residents reinterpret dominant ways of governing through claim-making, negotiation, everyday resistance, and situational improvisation, albeit within unequal power relations. the study enhances understanding of water-related vulnerabilities resulting from recurrent, yet temporally remoulded agendas of state-making combined with socially differentiating politics of scaling and the dynamics of socionature, which altogether reformulate human-nonhuman interactions and make local smallholders and peri-urban poor increasingly vulnerable to floods. 47. title: the long-term impact of the vietnam war on agricultural productivity authors: samuelson appau; sefa awaworyi churchill; russell smyth; trong-anh trinh. abstract: we present causal evidence of the long-term effects of the vietnam war on household agricultural productivity. using bombing intensity data and data on the intensity of agent orange and other chemical agents used during the war, we find that spatial differences in the intensity of the war can help explain differences in long-term household agricultural productivity. our endogeneity-corrected estimates suggest that, in the long-term, a 10% increase in bombing intensity decreases rice productivity by 2.94% and total agricultural productivity by 3.21%. results from a fuzzy regression discontinuity design suggest that agent orange intensity also had a negative effect on rice productivity. we find that economic production is a channel through which the intensity of bombing and agent orange have adversely affected long-term agricultural productivity, while social capital is a channel through which agent orange is linked to lower long-term agricultural productivity. 48. title: innovation, gender, and labour productivity: small and medium enterprises in vietnam authors: ngoc hoang; daehoon nahm; michael dobbie. abstract: this study undertakes an empirical analysis of the links between gender, innovation and firm labour productivity in vietnamese small and medium enterprises (smes). specifically, we analyse whether female-controlled firms are more or less productive, than male-controlled firms. we also analyse whether female-controlled firms are more or less innovative than male-controlled firms. the present study goes further than most others in this area by allowing for endogenous selection into innovation, and by decomposing the productivity differential between innovators and non-innovators into the parts due to the differences in endowments and in technology. we show that while female-controlled firms are less likely to innovate, they are not less productive than male-controlled firms, once the role of innovation is controlled for. we also show that innovators are about 23% more productive than non-innovators, with over three quarters of this gap being due to innovators possessing better technology. an important contribution of our analysis is therefore to show that innovators are more productive than non-innovators mainly due to the use of different technology, not because they have better endowments. as the number of females starting or running new businesses is higher than males in developing countries, including in vietnam, it follows that female entrepreneurship plays an important role in economic growth in emerging economies. our analysis of the gender gap in business performance and innovation provides insights that assist with formulating entrepreneurship-related polices to assist this economic growth. 49. title: the benefits and limitations of agricultural input cooperatives in zambia authors: jordan blekking; nicolas gatti; kurt waldman; tom evans; kathy baylis. abstract: policymakers in southern africa have long viewed agricultural cooperatives as a way to reach rural households more easily, but because not all rural households can afford to join cooperatives, this raises questions about membership inclusivity and whether cooperatives advantage some smallholders over others. agricultural cooperatives can serve as an institutional vehicle for policymakers to deliver direct benefits to smallholder farmers in the form of subsidized agricultural inputs, usually improved seed varieties and fertilizers. they can also serve as platforms for collective action through which smallholders can reduce transportation and transaction costs or disperse the costs of marketing. in zambia farmers are required to join a cooperative to qualify for seed and fertilizer support through the national farmer input support program (fisp), which is a structural incentive for cooperative membership and makes it complicated to determine if cooperative membership increases use of inputs and yields on its own. using the inverse probability weight regression adjustment (ipwra) technique, we find zambian smallholders participating in cooperatives achieve significantly higher maize yields and use significantly more hybrid-maize seed and fertilizers, even when controlling for fisp eligibility. furthermore, across all selected productivity and input variables we find greater average treatment effects from cooperative membership than fisp participation. cooperative membership is also associated with more assets, more land, and higher maize yields, which suggests that the poorest rural households are often not cooperative members. cooperatives can be a powerful poverty policy tool to deliver direct benefits to small farmers, but not including the poorest households likely widens the rural poverty gap, both in terms of limited direct benefits of input support programs and in terms of farmers missing out on cooperative-specific benefits. 50. title: disentangling ecosystem services preferences and values authors: marleen s. schutter; christina c. hicks; jacob phelps; clara belmont. abstract: preferences for ecosystem services provide information on what people find important in their human-nature relationships, which can enhance environmental governance. however, preferences are �reason-blind�, obscuring the underlying values that shape them. increasingly, values � concepts or beliefs about desirable end states or behaviours that transcend specific situations and guide behaviour � receive attention in environmental governance, but lack of clarity in values terminology could hamper communication and reduce the ability to successfully align governance. there is a need to disentangle preferences and values to examine whether ecosystem services preferences provide adequate information on people�s values. seychelles provides an interesting case to study the relationship between policy, preferences, and values, due to recent neoliberal economic restructuring and emergence of the blue economy. we conducted 50 semi-structured interviews with resource users (fishers, tourism operators) and 130 population-wide portrait values questionnaires to explore differences across the population and examine the link between values and preferences. we find a disconnect between ecosystem services preferences and underlying values. exploring people�s reasons for prioritising ecosystem services can improve understanding of underlying values, contribute to reconciling conflict, and clarify impacts on communities. newly introduced worldviews and values accompanying the blue economy have the potential to clash with collectivist values found in seychelles. potential mismatches need explicit discussion to make decision-making more procedurally complete, but also improve equity and public support. 51. title: changing livelihoods at india�s rural�urban transition authors: chetan choithani; robbin jan van duijne; jan nijman. abstract: in india, the past couple of decades witnessed, simultaneously, a massive shift of employment out of agriculture, substantial urban growth in heretofore rural regions, and rapid increases in the rates of labor migration. but very little is known about new livelihoods being forged or the whereabouts of these livelihoods. we draw on extensive primary data collected at two sites in west bengal and bihar, along with a comprehensive analysis of population census and gis data, to investigate livelihood transformations and household well-being. we observe large-scale change, exceeding common perceptions of academics and policy makers. while the shift out of agriculture is momentous, alternative local livelihoods are scarce and, more than ever, labor migration offers a way out for many households. traditional seasonal migration has made way for more permanent forms of circular labor migration. our comparative study shows that the timing and nature of this transformation varies to some extent across india as the decline in agricultural employment occurred at different times. we also observe significantly different impacts of domestic versus international labor migration. there is a pressing need for pro-active government policies that stimulate local economic restructuring and livelihood opportunities and, as long as these local economies are insufficiently developed, that facilitate circular labor migration. 52. title: encouraging technology adoption using icts and farm trials in senegal: lessons for gender equity and scaled impact authors: rachel c. voss; tony jansen; bacary man�; carol shennan. abstract: information and communication technologies (icts) are generating substantial interest from aid donors and development practitioners, including as tools for agricultural extension. however, empirical evidence of the impact of ict-enabled extension on farmers� uptake of introduced technologies remains scarce. this four-year study evaluates an ict-enabled extension project in senegal using radio and mobile phone services to encourage rural smallholder farmers� use of certified improved seeds and organic and inorganic fertilizers across senegal. data were collected using large-scale annual surveys in six regions over four years as well as focus groups. the findings suggest that, in general, the forms and format of ict-enabled extension services deployed failed to significantly contribute to the adoption of promoted technologies. personal connections to participatory farm trials were consistently associated with adoption, and phone-based voice messaging appears to have potential to increase technology uptake. gender-based disparities in engagement with ict services and senegal�s poorly developed systems for producing and distributing quality seeds emerged as key factors limiting the effectiveness of this project. these findings raise concerns about the equity and effectiveness of ict-enabled extension in promoting agricultural inputs in contexts like senegal and have important implications for similar efforts in other countries. 53. title: conserving the cerrado and amazon biomes of brazil protects the soy economy from damaging warming authors: rafaela flach; gabriel abrah�o; benjamin bryant; marluce scarabello; ... avery s. cohn. abstract: in tropical regions, widespread loss of native forest and savanna vegetation is increasing extreme heat, particularly in agricultural regions. using the case of rising extreme heat from lost forest and savanna vegetation in brazilian amazon and cerrado regions, we modeled losses to soy production, the region�s principal economic activity. we assessed two types of extreme-heat regulation values: the value of avoided extreme-heat exposure of soy from the conservation of neighboring ecosystems and the value of lost revenue due to increased extreme heat exposure from increased ecosystem conversion. our modeling combines empirical estimates of (1) the influence of ecosystem conversion on extreme heat over neighboring cropland, (2) the impacts of extreme heat on agricultural yields, and (3) native vegetation area, agricultural area, and crop prices. we examine lost soy value from land conversion over the period 1985 to 2012, potential losses from further conversion under plausible land and climate change scenarios (2020�2050), and the future value of conservation of the region�s remaining ecosystem area near soy. soy revenue lost due to extreme heat from native vegetation loss (1985�2012) totaled 99 (2005usd) ha"1 for 2012-2013 growing season. by 2050, agricultural growth, ecosystem conversion, and climate change could boost extreme-heat regulation values by 25% to 95%. future values were strongly sensitive to changes in agricultural density, rates of native vegetation loss, and climate. extreme-heat regulation values were largest in the cerrado biome and the southeastern amazon. relative to land values, the value of extreme heat regulation was largest relative to the carbon value of biomass in the cerrado. by regulating the exposure of agriculture to extreme heat, ecosystem conservation can create considerable value for the soy sector. 54. title: leveraging social protection to advance climate-smart agriculture: an empirical analysis of the impacts of malawi�s social action fund (masaf) on farmers� adoption decisions and welfare outcomes authors: antonio scognamillo; nicholas j. sitko. abstract: this article assesses the interactions between participation in malawi�s largest public works programme, the malawi social action fund (masaf), and three widely promoted climate smart agriculture (csa) practices. drawing on three waves of national panel household survey data, we find that participation in masaf significantly increases the probability that farm households adopt the resource intensive csa practices of building soil water conservation structures and applying organic fertilizers. moreover, participation in masaf contributes to a sustained adoption of these practices over multiple agricultural seasons. we empirically demonstrate that the standalone impact of the csa practices on maize productivity and the value of crops harvested under normal and dry conditions is, in most cases, not significantly different from zero. however, we find a reduction in sensitivity to low precipitation when masaf participation occurs in the previous agricultural season. moreover, the joint treatment effect of masaf participation with sustained adoption of soil water conservation structures substantially increases households� productivity and welfare. this synergistic benefit is likely driven by the transfer of skills learned during masaf public works to farmers� own fields. results suggest that the csa agenda can be enhanced by explicitly integrating existing social protection interventions with the promotion of csa practices. 55. title: knowledge gaps in latin america and the caribbean and economic development authors: pablo jarr�n-v; fander falcon�; pedro cango; jesus ramos-martin. abstract: an economy based on primary products is present in most countries in latin america and the caribbean. these remain focused on the export of unprocessed materials and goods, with little added value from knowledge and technology, which creates a development gap with technologically advanced countries and regions. by using a set of 5 quantitative indicators, we provided a novel assessment of growth gaps in the production of knowledge across world regions. our study interpreted growth curves in terms of their essential constituent components (i. e. size, tempo, and intensity). latin america and the caribbean remains a region with average or below-average performance for most indicators of knowledge and most components of growth. the region shows a relatively large intensity for growth in patent applications, high-tech exports, and scientific publications, and this may have to do with recent investment in r&d by some latin american countries. although education gaps are slightly closing, research and technological gaps, measured by patent applications and scientific publications, are widening and driving up the resulting gaps in economic growth. our study adds to other assessments of growth gaps in establishing the existence of an increasing divide between latin america and the caribbean and the developed world regions. we also propose strategy recommendations in the context of the current observed gaps in the production of knowledge. bridging knowledge gaps represents a historical imperative and an unavoidable condition for the economic and social progress of the latin american region. therefore, active domestic public policies are urgently needed, along with international agreements that contribute to democratizing access to knowledge and technology. 56. title: a scoping review of the development resilience literature: theory, methods and evidence authors: christopher b. barrett; kate ghezzi-kopel; john hoddinott; nima homami; ... tong wu. abstract: development and humanitarian agencies have rapidly embraced the concept of resilience since the 2008 global financial and food price crises. we report the results of a formal scoping review of the literature on development resilience over the ensuing period. the review identifies the theoretical and methodological underpinnings and empirical applications of resilience as the concept has been applied to individual or household well-being in low-and middle-income countries. from 9,558 search records spanning 2008�20, 301 studies met our pre-registered inclusion criteria. among these, we identify three broad conceptualizations employed � resilience as capacity, as a normative condition, or as return to equilibrium � and explain how the resulting variation in framing leads to marked differences in empirical methods and findings. we study in greater depth a set of 45 studies that met five key criteria for empirical studies of resilience. the larger, more established, qualitative empirical literature yields insights suggestive that the concept of resilience can add value. the quantitative literature is thinner and divided among methods that limit cross-study comparability of findings. overall, we find that development resilience remains inconsistently theorized and reliant on methods that have not been adequately reconciled to identify which tools are best suited to which questions. despite much published evidence, most findings concentrate on just a few countries and natural shocks, and rely on cross-sectional data at just one scale of analysis. the result is a dearth of generalizable evidence, especially of rigorous impact evaluations, to guide whether or how agencies might build resilience among target populations. 57. title: fossil fuels, stranded assets and covid-19: imagining an inclusive & transformative recovery authors: arthur rempel; joyeeta gupta. abstract: the 2015 paris agreement on climate change implicitly requires phasing out fossil fuels; such a phase out may cost hundreds of trillions of dollars and induce widespread socio-ecological ramifications. the covid-19 �pancession� (pandemic recession) has rattled global economies, possibly accelerating the fossil fuel phase out. this raises the question: what opportunities has covid-19 presented to phase out fossil fuels, and subsequently, how can transformative recovery efforts be designed to utilize these opportunities and promote social, ecological and relational inclusiveness? we find that: (a) the covid-19 pancession provides a unique opportunity to accelerate climate action, as it has devalued financial assets, stunned fossil fuel production and paralyzed relevant infrastructure, thus easing the pathway towards stranding global fossil fuel resources and assets; (b) four possible post-pancession recovery scenarios may unravel, of which only one is ecologically, socially and relationally inclusive, transformative, and in line with the paris agreement and agenda 2030; and (c) an inclusive recovery requires that political leadership channels the gargantuan state resources for recovery into prioritizing healthcare and the environment as public/merit goods, conscious investment in non-fossil fuel energy sector recovery accompanied by stringent climate policy, and equitably managing stranded assets to ensure that the burden falls on rich and capable actors, predominantly from the north. 58. title: lives and livelihoods: estimates of the global mortality and poverty effects of the covid-19 pandemic authors: benoit decerf; francisco h.g. ferreira; daniel g. mahler; olivier sterck. abstract: we evaluate the global welfare consequences of increases in mortality and poverty generated by the covid-19 pandemic. increases in mortality are measured in terms of the number of years of life lost (ly) to the pandemic. additional years spent in poverty (py) are conservatively estimated using growth estimates for 2020 and two different scenarios for its distributional characteristics. using years of life as a welfare metric yields a single parameter that captures the underlying trade-off between lives and livelihoods: how many pys have the same welfare cost as one ly. taking an agnostic view of this parameter, we compare estimates of lys and pys across countries for different scenarios. three main findings arise. first, we estimate that, as of early june 2020, the pandemic (and the observed private and policy responses) had generated at least 68 million additional poverty years and 4.3 million years of life lost across 150 countries. the ratio of pys to lys is very large in most countries, suggesting that the poverty consequences of the crisis are of paramount importance. second, this ratio declines systematically with gdp per capita: poverty accounts for a much greater share of the welfare costs in poorer countries. finally, a comparison of these baseline results with mortality estimates in a counterfactual �herd immunity� scenario suggests that welfare losses would be greater in the latter in most countries. 59. title: electrification and cooking fuel choice in rural india authors: ridhima gupta; martino pelli. abstract: this study investigates the causal link between electrification and the adoption of modern (and cleaner) cooking fuels, more specifically liquefied petroleum gas (lpg). in order to correct for the potential endogeneity in the placement of electrical infrastructure, we exploit an instrumental variable approach. our instrument interacts state-level supply shifts in hydro-electric power availability with the initial level of electrification of each district. the results are consistent with a choice set expansion under a fixed budget constraint. we find that electrification leads to an increase in the probability of adoption of (free) biomass fuels and a decrease in the probability of adoption of (costly) modern cooking fuels. these results are statistically significant only for the poorest households in our sample, while they become statistically insignificant when we move to richer households. the same is true for the share of expenditure in a specific fuel. these results seem to indicate that electrification, by creating an additional strain on households� finances, pushes them back on the energy ladder. 60. title: how land tenure and labor relations mediate charcoal�s environmental footprint in zambia: implications for sustainable energy transitions authors: johanne pelletier; boniface hamalambo; anne trainor; christopher b. barrett. abstract: charcoal is the main cooking fuel in urban areas of sub-saharan africa and demand is expected to rise with urbanization. we explore the environmental footprint and socioeconomic drivers of charcoal production, using data from original field vegetation and producer surveys in a hotspot charcoal production area outside lusaka, zambia. we find that land tenure and labor market conditions structure the environmental footprint of charcoal production. agricultural expansion is the main driver of forest conversion on customary and private (leasehold) lands where charcoal is a one-off byproduct of land-use change by farmers. by contrast, charcoal production drives forest degradation on state land, especially in forest reserves where agriculture is prohibited but the more intact forest is intensively harvested, largely by urban residents or, during the dry season, by nearby farmers lacking remunerative employment. charcoal producers are remarkably varied, with sharp variation in net financial gains that are positively and significantly associated with volume produced. strategies for improving the sustainability of charcoal production differ by land tenure type but require a combination of enhanced enforcement of existing land use restrictions, improved labor market conditions, greater support for sustainable agricultural intensification, devolution of forest management to more local level, and adoption of alternative cooking fuel sources by urban residents. 61. title: the power of the collective empowers women: evidence from self-help groups in india authors: neha kumar; kalyani raghunathan; alejandra arrieta; amir jilani; shinjini pandey. abstract: women�s groups are important rural social and financial institutions in south asia. in india, a large majority of women�s groups programs are implemented through self-help groups (shgs). originally designed as savings and credit groups, the role of shgs has expanded to include creating health and nutrition awareness, improving governance, and addressing social issues related to gender- and caste-based discrimination. this paper uses panel data from 1470 rural indian women from five states to study the impact of shg membership on women�s empowerment in agriculture, using the project-level women�s empowerment in agriculture index (pro-weai) and the abbreviated women�s empowerment in agriculture index (a-weai). because shg membership was not randomized and women who self-select to be shg members may be systematically different from non-members, we employ nearest neighbor matching methods to attribute the impact of shg membership on women�s empowerment in agriculture and intrahousehold inequality. our findings suggest that shg membership has a significant positive impact on aggregate measures of women�s empowerment and reduces the gap between men�s and women�s empowerment scores. this improvement in aggregate empowerment is driven by improvements in women�s scores, not a deterioration in men�s. greater control over income, greater decisionmaking over credit, and (somewhat mechanistically, given the treatment) greater and more active involvement in groups within the community lead to improvements in women�s scores. however, impacts on other areas of empowerment are limited. the insignificant impacts on attitudes towards domestic violence and respect within the household suggest that women�s groups alone may be insufficient to change deep-seated gender norms that disempower women. our results have implications for the design and scale-up of women�s group-based programs in south asia, including the possibility that involving men is needed to change gender norms. 62. title: designing for empowerment impact in agricultural development projects: experimental evidence from the agriculture, nutrition, and gender linkages (angel) project in bangladesh authors: agnes quisumbing; akhter ahmed; john hoddinott; audrey pereira; shalini roy. abstract: the importance of women�s roles for nutrition-sensitive agricultural projects is increasingly recognized, yet little is known about whether such projects improve women�s empowerment and gender equality. we study the agriculture, nutrition, and gender linkages (angel) pilot project, which was implemented as a cluster-randomized controlled trial by the government of bangladesh. the project�s treatment arms included agricultural training, nutrition behavior change communication (bcc), and gender sensitization trainings delivered to husbands and wives together � with these components combined additively, such that the impact of gender sensitization could be distinguished from that of agriculture and nutrition trainings. empowerment was measured using the internationally-validated project-level women�s empowerment in agriculture index (pro-weai), and attitudes regarding gender roles were elicited from both men and women, to explore potentially gender-transformative impacts. our study finds that angel increased both women�s and men�s empowerment, raised the prevalence of households achieving gender parity, and led to small improvements in the gender attitudes of both women and men. we find significant increases in women�s empowerment scores and empowerment status from all treatment arms but with no significant differences across these. we find no evidence of unintended impacts on workloads and inconclusive evidence around impacts on intimate partner violence. our results also suggest some potential benefits of bundling nutrition and gender components with an agricultural development intervention; however, many of these benefits seem to be driven by bundling nutrition with agriculture. while we cannot assess the extent to which including men and women within the same treatment arms contributed to our results, it is plausible that the positive impacts of all treatment arms on women�s empowerment outcomes may have arisen from implementation modalities that provided information to both husbands and wives when they were together. the role of engaging men and women jointly in interventions is a promising area for future research. 63. title: are women emancipating? evidence from marriage, divorce and remarriage in rural northern burkina faso authors: catherine guirkinger; j�r�mie gross; jean-philippe platteau. abstract: on the basis of first-hand data, we document the evolution of marriage, divorce and remarriage practices in northern burkina faso, and we highlight the emancipatory trajectories of women. we find a strong persistence of early marriages of the arranged and polygamous types. according to a widespread understanding, this finding suggests that women�s position and status have not improved over the last generations. however, this is at odds with other key findings, more specifically the increased involvement of women in the selection of their spouse, the rapid increase in divorces initiated by women, their frequent subsequent remarriages, and their positive perception of polygamy. moreover, second 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