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��ࡱ�>�� z\����y��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������u �r��bjbj�n�n2.��a��a� �������""������������8�<5�nmliiiii}}}�l�l�l�l�l�l�l$�n��qfm�}}}}}m��ii4(m'''}��i�i�l'}�l'''i����� _h�s�����g'�l>m0nm'�qcx�q''�/�q��i�}}'}}}}}mm�l}}}nm}}}}���������������������������������������������������������������������q}}}}}}}}}"q s: journal of political economy volume 130, issue 4, april 2022 1. title: cause and effect in political polarization: a dynamic analysis. authors: callander, steven; carbajal, juan carlos. abstract: polarization is both a description of the current state of politics and a dynamic path that has rippled across the political domain over decades. we provide a simple model that explains why polarization appears incrementally and why it was elites who polarized first and more dramatically, whereas mass polarization came later and has been less pronounced. we incorporate an ostensibly unrelated finding about how voters form preferences into a dynamic model of elections. this change, when combined with the response of strategic candidates, creates a feedback loop that can replicate many features of the data. we explore the model's implications for other aspects of politics and trace what it predicts for the future of polarization. 2. title: cost-benefit analysis in reasoning. authors: alaoui, larbi; penta, antonio. abstract: an individual's decision to reason about a problem may involve a trade-off between cognitive costs and a notion of value. this paper analyzes the primitive properties that must hold for the decision to stop thinking to be represented by a cost-benefit analysis. we then provide additional properties that give more structure to the value of reasoning function. we show how our model applies to a variety of settings, including contexts involving r&d applications, response time, and strategic reasoning. our model can also be used to understand patterns of behavior for which the cost-benefit approach does not seem to hold. 3. title: ordinal centrality. authors: sadler, evan. abstract: this paper studies the extent to which centrality measures share a common structure. in contrast with prior work, i take an ordinal approach, defining centrality measures as preorders that satisfy an axiom called recursive monotonicity. from this axiom, i derive two fundamental measures, strong and weak centrality, and i relate these to the equilibria of network games. any equilibrium in a game of strategic complements implicitly orders the players by their actions. strong centrality captures comparisons shared across all equilibria in all such games. weak centrality captures comparisons shared across minimal and maximal equilibria in all such games. 4. title: measuring the completeness of economic models. authors: fudenberg, drew; kleinberg, jon; liang, annie; mullainathan, sendhil. abstract: economic models are evaluated by testing the correctness of their predictions. we suggest an additional measure, "completeness": the fraction of the predictable variation in the data that the model captures. we calculate the completeness of prominent models in three problems from experimental economics: assigning certainty equivalents to lotteries, predicting initial play in games, and predicting human generation of random sequences. the completeness measure reveals new insights about these models, including how much room there is for improving their predictions. 5. title: good reverberations? teacher influence in music composition since 1450. authors: borowiecki, karol jan. abstract: teachers and mentors in creative fields shape their students' skills and views of the craft and thus the work they produce. how significant and persistent is this influence? are there consequences for the variety and quality of students' inventive output? we study these questions in the context of western music composition over five centuries, during which musical lineages are well documented, the content of composers' work can be directly compared, and its lasting value can be measured. we find strong evidence of influence, document when it arises and persists, and evaluate its consequences. the results provide insight into where creative ideas come from, why certain ideas get produced as opposed to others, and what the ramifications might be. 6. title: the origin of the state: land productivity or appropriability? authors: mayshar, joram; moav, omer; pascali, luigi. abstract: the conventional theory about the origin of the state is that the adoption of farming increased land productivity, which led to the production of food surplus. this surplus was a prerequisite for the emergence of tax-levying elites and, eventually, states. we challenge this theory and propose that hierarchy arose as a result of the shift to dependence on appropriable cereal grains. our empirical investigation, utilizing multiple data sets spanning several millennia, demonstrates a causal effect of the cultivation of cereals on hierarchy, without finding a similar effect for land productivity. we further support our claims with several case studies.     $'/027:<=>@hi����ʻʬʚ�|h`se>0eh�]bh�]b5�ojqj^j h�]bh�]bh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(h�5�cjojqj^jajh 2e5�cjojqj^jaj#h�i�h�i�5�cjojqj^jajh�]b5�cjojqj^jajh�a�5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj h$-�5�cjojqj^jajo(#h�]bh�]b5�cjojqj^jaj=>?��� � �  ����xy��()|���������������������������gd�psgd)w�gd$?�gdto�gd�l$gd%j,gdu<�gd�"�$a$gdt4���������� � � � � � � � � � � � �      ������ÿ�ޫн��w�i��wyi�wyiޫkh�]bh�l$ojqj^jo(hvi�h�l$5�ojqj^jo(h�l$h�l$5�ojqj^jh�l$5�ojqj^jo(hj�5�ojqjo(hiht4ojqj^jo(hihj�ojqj^jo(h�]bh�]bojqj^jht45�ojqj^jo(hicy5�ojqj^jh�]bh�]b5�ojqj^j h�]bh�]bh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jhj�5�ojqj^jo(������������������vwxyz����ķ��ّ��|ّ��oat�ghs/�5�ojqj^jo(hihanojqj^jh5b�hto�ojqj^jo(h5b�h5b�ojqj^jh�]bh�]b5�ojqj^j h�]bh�]bhvi�hto�5�ojqj^jo(h5b�h5b�5�ojqj^j h5b�h5b�hto�hto�5�ojqj^j hto�hto�h�"�h�`�5�ojqj^jhto�5�ojqj^jo(h%j,5�ojqjo(hihu<�ojqj^jo(z\bc����������&'()*,23������㪜���܏�sh[m?8 h]"�h]"�h�psh�ps5�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh�ps5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(hvi�h%j,ojqj^jo(h5b�h$?�ojqj^jo(h5b�h5b�ojqj^jh�]bh�]b5�ojqj^j h�]bh�]bhvi�h$?�5�ojqj^jo(h$?�5�ojqj^jo(h5b�h5b�5�ojqj^j h5b�h5b�h$?�h$?�5�ojqj^jh�"�h%j,5�ojqj^j3z{|��������������������䣕��sezm?1hr7ahr7a5�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jhr7a5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(hvi�h)w�ojqj^jo(h.p>h)w�ojqj^jo(h.p>h]"�ojqj^j h]"�h]"�h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jhvi�h)w�5�ojqj^jo(h�]bh�]b5�ojqj^j h�]bh�]bh�psh�ps5�ojqj^jhvi�h�ps5�ojqj^jh�ps5�ojqj^jo(h]"�h]"�5�ojqj^j�������&'���������»����zm_qf9hj<5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(hvi�h)w�ojqj^jo(h}onh)w�ojqj^jo(h�f�h�f�ojqj^j h�f�h�f�h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jhvi�h)w�5�ojqj^jo(hvi�hvi�5�ojqj^jh�]bh�]b5�ojqj^j h�]bh�]bhr7ahr7a5�ojqj^jhvi�hr7a5�ojqj^jhr7a5�ojqj^jo(h.p>h.p>5�ojqj^j h.p>h.p>��������������������������������gd�gdj<gd)w�gdr7a�����������������������h�djh�duhj<hj<5�ojqjo(h�r�hj<ojqj^jo( 01�82p��. ��a!�"�#��$��%��s�� ��s2���� 0@p`p������2(�� 0@p`p������ 0@p`p������ 0@p`p������ 0@p`p������ 0@p`p������ 0@p`p��8x�v~�������� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@pj_hmh nhsh thj`��j ck�e $1$a$ cjkh_hajmh nhsh th$a ���$ ؞���k=�w[sobi���b nf�h�&��ŝ�]�6��ҩ��n=���in����a7���qb&>!"�h [�� �lx�z)��w�v�og�%�ţ|8mă#�/��8��'��=���q�u*��c�`c�w{�d6��/�[��yl���%�� ��n� {�\�o�sm�/�~��i�bcax���/=x e��'5��&\�h�4da���,ye\}�)�l�a�����r�^��*�z���y�v-wowz�n�]��:m�v�=t�c���w��r�b���*i�v�u�r��u����|�nc`�|����*^����pk! ѐ��'theme/theme/_rels/thememanager.xml.rels��m �0���wooӻ�&݈э���5 6?$q�� �,.�a��i����c2�1h�:�q��m��@rn��;d�`��o7�g�k(m&$r(.1�r'j��њt���8��v�"��aȼ�h�u}��|�$�b{��p����8�g/]�qasم(����#��l�[������pk-!����[content_types].xmlpk-!�֧��6 0_rels/.relspk-!ky���theme/theme/thememanager.xmlpk-!���f���theme/theme/theme1.xmlpk-! ѐ��'� theme/theme/_rels/thememanager.xml.relspk]� �.���� ��z3������@� @���������h ��0�( � ����0�( � ��b �s ���� ?�27��������� � � � ������� ���������<��<?����������$'/027:<??h����������������������v b � � � � & 2 z � � � ����&������q04e��n[g],-�o�����`<|��o";0ri1�%�rrsui��w�i�= {u�,� uz*�m� �r=��-9h�s��eme�.~�� {r�v �4�1l2q �"�i aha��og>�u��`�1_%v��nh{��q��u�3�d]-�z:kkkkn;�q0�<�?*� 7��:a��^b� �l{��2h�(�#!�q��m4-cqrrs�4>�p]�sao-�?��yn�b~i�(��)ib��>!]�.�` rv:g&>!��}n!�l��2�"�0r��\�|�md-%;�blrbr]�a 6ji� ��vj�`�[jo 5j90�ry �:[� k 3q-r�jx 8i� tp� k�|�2~� ��y��k� ?i��� * �? 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