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��ࡱ�>�� u �r��bjbj�n�n2��a��a�� ""��8��$��pl��_papapapapapap$lr�u<�p��p��4�p��_p�_p��7r�h��(kp�p0�p>u�:>u�/>u�md��p�p�6��p��>u��"qs: world development volume 167, issue 7, july 2023 1. title: the trade effects of information provision about forced and child labor authors: margaryta klymak abstract: the issue of child and forced labor employed in the production of goods has been at a forefront of public debate in recent decades with millions of victims and nearly all countries being affected. this paper examines whether information about the use of child and forced labor in the production of goods affects their imports to the united states. i investigate this question using the largest naming and shaming strategy ever implemented world-wide: inclusion on the u.s. government�s list of goods produced with child or forced labor. this list aims to provide impartial information to consumers and firms about a broad range of goods, in contrast to previously used measures in the literature which have tended to be more emotionally driven boycotts or labelling campaigns of specific goods. the paper finds that such information provision decreased united states imports of goods believed to be made using child and forced labor. the results are mainly driven by goods closer to the point of consumption, where consumers might reasonably be expected to penalize products that are thought to rely on such labor, while no effect was found for intermediate goods. thus, public information strategies may be efficient policy instruments in disincentivizing the purchase of certain goods believed to be made with child and forced labor. 2. title: patronage and authoritarian co-optation of the military: theory with evidence from post-mao china authors: yumin sheng abstract: how do dictators cultivate support among military leaders to mitigate their �guardianship dilemma�? a prominent thesis suggests autocrats in regimes with a dominant political party seek to prolong their rule by lavishing with career rewards underlings in their patronage networks built over a track record of trust and loyalty. this can be daunting for post-founding-generation dictators with little military experience and lacking prior interaction with their generals, an increasingly common challenge in party autocracies. proposing a simple framework to think about the challenges of co-opting the military leaders for autocrats with different career background, i argue that party autocrats with no military career credentials can build new allegiance by bestowing job-related patronage on the military leaders appointed by themselves at the expense of legacy generals inherited from their predecessors. analyzing yearly career outcomes of leaders of the regional commands of the people�s liberation army in post-mao china, i find strong empirical support for the main argument. compared with personal appointees, legacy generals were 63 percent less likely to be promoted under autocrats without military experience, but their odds of promotion did not seem to differ under autocrats boasting military career background. this study contributes to research on authoritarian efforts to tame internal threats, clientelism, party dictatorships, leader traits, and china�s civil-military ties. 3. title: weather information and agricultural outcomes: evidence from a pilot field experiment in benin authors: rosaine n. yegbemey, gunther bensch, colin vance abstract: weather conditions are an important determinant of agricultural factor input, particularly labor allocation. the availability of weather forecasts can therefore lead to efficiency gains in the form of cost decreases and productivity increases. we test the practical feasibility, the uptake, and the effect of providing basic weather forecasts in the rainy season on the labor productivity of smallholder farmers. for this purpose, we conducted a randomized controlled trial as a pilot with monthly data collections involving 331 farmers across six villages in northern benin. we find that most farmers subscribe to the intervention and report satisfaction with the service. the impact estimates indicate positive and economically significant intention-to-treat and local average treatment effects in terms of reduced relative labor costs, increased yield and, in turn, increased labor productivity for maize and cotton cultivation. these benefits come at relatively low cost, suggesting that weather-related information via mobile phone outreach holds promise for helping smallholder farmers to better adapt to changing weather. 4. title: the gender labor productivity gap across informal firms authors: asif m. islam, mohammad amin abstract: this study uncovers a gender labor productivity gap among informal firms in 14 developing economies. the mean labor productivity of women-owned informal firms is approximately 15.6 percent (0.17 log points) lower than that of men-owned informal firms. the difference in productivity is larger at the lower quantiles of the labor productivity distribution than at the higher quantiles. the kitagawa-oaxaca-blinder and quantile decomposition methods are used to estimate the aggregate �endowment� vs �structural� effects, and individual factors� contribution to the productivity gap. several policy-relevant findings are revealed. first, the labor productivity gap at the mean is significantly larger due to lower education, prior work experience, capitalization, and less protection from crime among women than men owners of informal firms. the smaller size of the women-owned firms and their higher return from operations under contracts narrow the mean productivity gap. second, the productivity gap at the mean and different labor productivity quantiles can be substantially narrowed by providing more resources to women owners of informal firms, such as education, managerial experience, and physical capital, without improvements in their returns to women-owned informal businesses. third, overall, there is evidence of �sticky floors� for women owners, but not �glass ceilings�. fourth, there is heterogeneity in the contribution of individual factors to the productivity gap at different quantiles of the labor productivity distribution. targeting policies to the relevant quantiles will improve their effectiveness. fifth, there are important similarities and differences between groups of countries in low-income africa, middle-income africa, and latin america, as far as the gender labor productivity gap and its drivers are concerned. thus, an eclectic policy approach is needed, combining the broader findings of the literature with the prevailing local conditions. last, the data do indicate that a majority of women- and men-owned informal businesses would like to formalize. 5. title: chinese aid and health at the country and local level authors: john cruzatti c., axel dreher, johannes matzat abstract: we investigate whether and to what extent chinese development finance affects infant mortality, combining 92 demographic and health surveys (dhs) for a maximum of 53 countries and almost 55,000 sub-national locations over the 2002�2014 period. our results show that chinese aid decreases infant mortality at the country level. relative to the country average, aid however increases infant mortality at sub-national scales. in several tests, we show that this stark contrast likely results from aid being fungible within recipient countries. 6. title: which dimensions of religiosity matter for trust? new insights from the mena region authors: eliane badaoui abstract: the important role of trust on various economic outcomes and on economic development is well established in the literature, and religiosity as a cultural factor is likely to be a key determinant of trust. the empirical literature on the effects of religiosity on trust produces mixed findings, partly due to the multidimensional nature of religiosity. using five dimensions of religiosity � subjective, private, collective, salience and tolerance � this article empirically investigates the role played by individual religiosity on interpersonal and institutional trust. the focus is mainly on the mena region, where religiosity remains relatively unexplored in the trust literature. based on data from the world values survey over the 2010�2020 period, the results support the existence of a multifaceted relationship between religiosity and trust. a comparative analysis with respondents from non-mena countries reveals that religious tolerance is likely to enhance generalized trust in the mena region only. this finding suggests that an evolution toward attitudes of religious tolerance is crucial to promoting trust in the mena region. 7. title: village networks and entrepreneurial farming in uganda authors: ben d�exelle, arjan verschoor abstract: the transition from semi-subsistence farming to more entrepreneurial farming by the adoption of new crops or improved seeds is important for poverty reduction in developing countries. in rural societies, farmers� propensity to experiment with new technologies is influenced by their access to information and support, provided by networks of friends and relatives. considering that the same connection can share both information and support, we study the separate effects as well as the interaction of both network functions. using two waves of data from a sample of ugandan farmers, we find that the propensity to adopt new crops or improved seeds increases with the number of friends or relatives who adopted new crops or improved seeds before. the effect on the adoption of new crops is stronger if the same friends or relatives also provide support in the form of gifts or loans. at the same time, we find a positive effect of support that is conditional on friends or relatives having adopted new crops before. 8. title: empowering women through targeting information or role models: evidence from an experiment in agricultural extension in uganda authors: els lecoutere, david j. spielman, bjorn van campenhout abstract: agricultural advisory services are generally biased towards men, with information targeted mainly to male members within the household, and in formats that often reinforce male dominance in agricultural decision-making. such biases affect women�s ability to make informed decisions and limit their intra-household bargaining power. because women�s empowerment in agriculture has many well-established benefits, designing inclusive agricultural extension and advisory services is important. in this study, we challenge the assumption that information is fully shared between co-heads of a household. we also test if portraying women as equally able farmers challenges gender norms and stereotypes in agriculture. we do this through a field experiment in eastern uganda in which videos that provide information on recommended maize-farming practices are shown to monogamous maize-farming households. in the experiment, we manipulate who within the household is exposed to the information contained in the video. furthermore, we vary the gender of the person delivering the information in the video. we find that targeting the female co-head alone with information increases her knowledge about recommended practices, her role in agricultural decision-making, her subsequent adoption of recommended practices and inputs, and yields on fields she manages, while the male co-head�s knowledge about the practices and his unilateral decision-making is reduced. when both co-heads are targeted, joint adoption of recommended practices and inputs increases, while the male co-head�s unilateral decision-making is reduced. we find some support that featuring female role models in the videos challenges men�s beliefs and stereotypes about women�s roles in agriculture, and encourages adoption of recommended practices by women. we conclude that if the aim is to empower women, most gains can be made by re-designing advisory services to target information exclusively to the female co-head within the household. challenging gender stereotypes may create room for increasing women�s involvement in agriculture. 9. title: agricultural value chains in a fragile state: the case of rice in myanmar authors: bart minten, joseph goeb, khin zin win, phoo pye zone abstract: the large majority of extreme poor in the world lives in fragile states. yet, despite the enormous importance of these areas for global poverty and food insecurity, there is relatively little research examining how agricultural value chains, crucial for assuring food security, respond and adapt to such contexts. this paper analyzes myanmar�s rice value chain � its most important staple and biggest value chain � during the economic collapse and political instability caused by a military coup in early 2021. it relies on unique data collected with a large sample of rice retailers and millers before and after the coup. despite many challenges in the rice value chain after the coup � most importantly linked to banking and transport � rice processing and trade continued, assuring availability of rice in most retail markets and illustrating the resilience of the value chain to such major shock. while processing margins were mostly stable, an increased distribution margin (between rice millers and retailers) led to 11 percent higher average retail prices after the coup, implying welfare losses of almost usd 0.5 billion for the country. using a market-pair regression method, we further find that localized violence near sellers and buyers, distances traveled, and distance of vendors from borders are associated with significantly increased rice price dispersion between rice retailers and mills. despite the amalgam of problems to address in such settings, prioritizing the easing of transport restrictions and facilitating cheap and safe spatial arbitrage of food products would likely help prevent further food price inflation, assure higher farm prices, and therefore improve welfare. 10. title: narrowing women�s time and income gaps: an assessment of the synergies between working time reduction and universal income schemes authors: andr� cieplinski, simone d'alessandro, chandni dwarkasing, pietro guarnieri abstract: this paper departs from the hypothesis that policies targeting time poverty have the potential to reduce the gender income gap through the redistribution of time use between women and men. to this purpose, we compare two policy mixes and assess the synergies between working time reduction and two universal income schemes: a basic income and care income programme. while the former provides every individual with an equal monetary benefit, the latter ties monetary benefits to the amount of unpaid and care work performed by individuals. we assess the impact of these policy mixes by applying eurogreen, a macrosimulation model tailored to italy. results suggest that while working time reduction directly drives a reduction of the aggregate amount of time spent by women in unpaid work, this does not imply a reduction in time poverty. the universal income schemes � and in particular the care income � promote a reduction of gender inequality in terms of income by sustaining women�s total income, but leave the wage gap between women and men unchanged. 11. title: macroeconomic exposure of developing economies to low-carbon transition authors: guilherme magacho, etienne espagne, antoine godin, achilleas mantes, devrim yilmaz abstract: the low-carbon transition is a specific type of rapid structural change where low-emission industries grow and high-emission industries decline due to deliberate policies, changing preferences and technological change. developing countries� macroeconomic exposure to this transition depends upon their reliance on carbon-intensive industries as a source of foreign currency, fiscal revenue, employment and wage income. identifying these different dimensions of countries� exposure is important because different green policies need to be applied in different contexts, and the results of these policies will be more or less effective according to countries� idiosyncrasies. this paper aims at providing estimates of countries� macroeconomic current exposures to the low-carbon transition. we develop a method to evaluate countries� external, fiscal and socioeconomic exposure, and, considering their capacity to adapt their productive structure, we analyse countries� vulnerabilities and risks in these different dimensions. using a hybrid world input-output table for 189 countries, we identify the carbon-intensive industries, and then we estimate each country�s direct and indirect dependence on these industries, considering countries� dependence for raising of foreign currency to analyse the external exposure, government revenue to evaluate the fiscal exposure, and the share of wages and employment to analyse the socioeconomic exposure. results show that countries present different degrees of exposure in different dimensions, and the degree of exposure varies significantly when indirect impacts are considered. moreover, by analysing countries� capacity to adapt their production structure and resilience factors, we evaluate to what extent countries� macroeconomic exposure imply a higher vulnerability to the green transition process. 12. title: identifying deprived �slum� neighbourhoods in the greater accra metropolitan area of ghana using census and remote sensing data authors: robert mactavish, honor bixby, alicia cavanaugh, samuel agyei-mensah, ... jill baumgartner abstract: identifying urban deprived areas, including slums, can facilitate more targeted planning and development policies in cities to reduce socio-economic and health inequities, but methods to identify them are often ad-hoc, resource intensive, and cannot keep pace with rapidly urbanizing communities. we apply a spatial modelling approach to identify census enumeration areas (eas) in the greater accra metropolitan area (gama) of ghana with a high probability of being a deprived area using publicly available census and remote sensing data. we obtained united nations (un) supported field mapping data that identified deprived �slum� areas in accra�s urban core, data on housing and population conditions from the most recent census, and remotely sensed data on environmental conditions in the gama. we first fitted a bayesian logistic regression model on the data in accra�s urban core (n=2,414 eas) that estimated the relationship between housing, population, and environmental predictors and being a deprived area according to the un�s deprived area assessment. using these relationships, we predicted the probability of being a deprived area for each of the 4,615 urban eas in gama. 899 (19%) of the 4,615 urban eas in gama, with an estimated 745,714 residents (22% of its urban population), had a high predicted probability (>80%) of being a deprived area. these deprived eas were dispersed across gama and relatively heterogeneous in their housing and environmental conditions, but shared some common features including a higher population density, lower elevation and vegetation abundance, and less access to indoor piped water and sanitation. our approach using ubiquitously available administrative and satellite data can be used to identify deprived neighbourhoods where interventions are warranted to improve living conditions, and track progress in achieving the sustainable development goals aiming to reduce the population living in unsafe or vulnerable human settlements. 13. title: the role of developmental �buzzwords� in the international refugee regime: self-reliance, resilience, and economic inclusion authors: naohiko omata abstract: buzzwords play an important role in setting up the scope and direction of aid policies. alongside the growing focus on development-led approaches in the international refugee regime, three buzzwords � self-reliance, resilience, and economic inclusion � have achieved particular prominence in recent refugee policy-making. drawing upon a review of policy documents and multi-sited empirical research in sub-saharan africa, this article gives a detailed analysis of how these buzzwords intersect with one another and elucidates the roles they play in shaping development-oriented approaches to refugees. while this trifecta is painted with positive connotations, empirical research shows that developmental approaches underpinned by these buzzwords can have detrimental effects on both refugees and hosts. building upon this analysis, it offers a theoretical approach to understand the current mainstreaming of developmental support within the international refugee regime from a lens of �reframing�, which is a strategy to redefine social problems and thereby control discourses around their solutions. the study shows that as a discursive apparatus, this triad of buzzwords is instrumentalised by policymakers to reframe the absence of solutions for �displacement crisis� as �development opportunities� in order to protect the damaged global refugee system. in so doing, such buzzwords play a crucial role in redefining the responsibility of refugees and their hosts in undertaking neoliberal development, while simultaneously reducing the ambit of responsibility of the international refugee regime. by analysing these popular buzzwords as a set, the article contributes to a deepened understanding of the ways in which these innocuous words are embedded in a broader �ideological project� informed by the political and economic incentives of the global policymakers. it also sheds light on the possible wider consequences of the current mainstreaming of development-led approaches for refugee rights and protection issues. 14. title: last mile in anti-poverty drive: impact of cadres� appraisals on growth and poverty reduction authors: liuyang he, xi lu, chyen yee lee abstract: developing countries need deft strategies to implement policies such as poverty alleviation especially when central and local governments face a misalignment of objectives. we explore this issue with china�s anti-poverty drive under president xi jinping using county-level data from 2012 to 2018 and a fixed effects model to investigate the impacts of a switch in cadres� performance appraisal to focus on eradicating poverty instead of economic growth. our study shows that the appraisal change slows gdp growth but lifts rural income among the poorest as resources are reallocated to projects that improve their livelihoods. heterogeneity analyses further indicate that the gdp impact from the appraisal shift is mainly ascribed to counties that entirely remove gdp-related indicators, and not so much to those that merely reduce the weightage. furthermore, using data such as fiscal gap and sectoral added value, we explore mechanisms through which the performance appraisal shift affects gdp growth. the experience of china shows that political incentives in a centralized system can facilitate the implementation of equity-targeted public policies, but this efficiency is not cost-free as economic growth might be compromised. therefore, our study serves as a reference for other developing countries that wish to explore the pathway of applying public governance in poverty alleviation. 15. title: estimating the potential of international carbon markets to increase global climate ambition authors: pedro piris-cabezas, ruben n. lubowski, gabriela leslie abstract: by helping achieve emissions targets more inexpensively than expected, emissions trading systems can lower political resistance to more ambitious targets, enabling deeper and faster cuts in emissions over time. using a dynamic global partial-equilibrium carbon market model, we quantify cost savings under scenarios for emissions trading within and across countries, as well as the corresponding potential to escalate reductions if those cost savings were translated into greater mitigation. we find global use of carbon markets could allow the world to nearly double climate ambition relative to current paris pledges (ndcs) over 2020�2035, without increasing total costs compared to a base case without international markets. significant potential to enhance ambition remain under scenarios where market participation is limited using a �heat map� analysis of countries� market readiness, as well as with policy uncertainty that delays climate investments. we also find that since protecting tropical forests offers so much low-cost mitigation potential, linking reduced deforestation to an international carbon market drives a majority of the potential ambition gains across the modeled scenarios. international markets, including for deforestation, play a potentially even more critical role as global ambition increases, with roughly double the volume and ten-fold the value of international transactions if countries� paris pledges scale up to limit warming to 2�c. under this scenario, global use of carbon markets lowers costs by two thirds, enabling one third more reductions for the same cost as without international markets, a gain sufficient to keep options open for limiting warming to 1.5�c. high-integrity approaches for international market cooperation�as envisioned under article 6 of the paris agreement and with the inclusion of tropical forests as a priority�thus merit significant policy attention as means of closing the global emissions gap. 16. title: methodological lessons for negotiating power, political capabilities, and resilience in research on climate change responses authors: petra tschakert, meg parsons, ed atkins, alicea garcia, ... gina ziervogel abstract: critical scholarship on the intersection of development pathways and climate change responses highlights the roles of power, agency, social difference, intersecting inequalities, and social justice in shaping people�s resilience in a rapidly transforming world. yet, how to precisely increase the spaces in which people experiencing marginalisation can address power asymmetries and strengthen their resilience, particularly from a methodological perspective, remains poorly understood. here, we build on recent insights into political capabilities and their relevance for equitable resilience practice to assess the role research methods play in not only locating political capabilities but also enhancing them in the context of climate resilience. we present the findings from an in-depth analysis of 57 articles, out of a larger set of 200 papers, that have employed co-learning/cooperative inquiries, participatory action research, participatory methods, workshops, and/or interviews combined with other approaches as most engaging and potentially empowering methods. methodological insights through this analysis allow us to examine if and how resilience-in-the-making materialises across uneven power relations and often flawed decision-making processes. we show the pervasiveness of power differentials, even in research settings designed to be inclusive, and how disempowering processes in adaptation, mitigation, disaster management, and social transformation further marginalise already disadvantaged actors. at the same time, we illustrate the transformative role of alliances, resistance, shared learning, and sustaining inclusive approaches. such nuanced insights into best processes as well as detrimental pitfalls are essential for development scholars and practitioners to help anchor deliberative resilience practice in the everyday lives of disadvantaged populations and foster political capabilities for more just climate action and policy. 17. title: motherhood and flexible jobs: evidence from latin american countries authors: in�s berniell, lucila berniell, dolores de la mata, mar�a edo, mariana marchionni abstract: we study the causal effects of motherhood on labour market outcomes in latin america by adopting an event study approach around the birth of the first child based on panel data from national household surveys for chile, mexico, peru, and uruguay. we show that motherhood not only reduces women�s employment but also implies changes in their occupational structure towards time-flexible, yet more vulnerable, forms of employment: part-time jobs, self-employment and informal work. additionally, we provide suggestive evidence for 18 latin american countries that gender norms and family policies shape the demand for flexibility that arises with the arrival of children. countries that hold more conservative views regarding women�s role within the family or with less generous family policies show larger gaps in labour market outcomes between mothers and childless women. 18. title: social policy expansion from below? the case of chile�s student movement and free tuition higher education authors: sofia donoso, rodolfo disi pavlic, bel�n cumsille r. abstract: scholars have long sought to establish the strategies through which social movements can impact policy adoption. yet, there is little evidence on the role they may play in policy expansion. we study the role of social movements in broadening the scope of social policies by analyzing whether chile�s student movement impacted the expansion of the free college tuition policy between 2015 and 2020. we evaluate three mechanisms to assess the student movement�s influence on free tuition expansion. first, movements may use protests to affect the expansion process through disruption. second, they can make use of their connections with and presence in parties and the bureaucracy to channel their demands and influence decision-making instances. finally, movements may also try to shape public opinion to affect the scope of the policy through mobilizations and other forms of influence. we use a process tracing design to examine these mechanisms. we collect and analyze evidence from 32 elite interviews, congressional and administrative records, web scraped news, and public opinion and protest event data. our results show that students influenced the implementation and expansion of the free tuition policy through all mechanisms using different strategies. first, students used protests to set free tuition in the public agenda. second, and the most important strategy, by means of connections with incumbent parties and the presence of former student activists in the education ministry and in congress, they indirectly influenced policy expansion. finally, and indirectly, they shaped public opinion in favor of free tuition. students played a role in defining the pace and scope of the policy but could not imprint all their demands. overall, our analysis sheds light over the ways in which social movement can influence the implementation of policies, thus, expanding the scope of equity-enhancing social policies in latin america and beyond. 19. title: forced migration and social cohesion: evidence from the 2015/16 mass inflow in germany authors: e. albarosa, b. elsner abstract: a commonly expressed concern about immigration is that it undermines social cohesion in the receiving country. in this paper, we study the impact of a large and sudden inflow of asylum seekers on several indicators of social cohesion. in 2015/16, over one million asylum seekers from syria, afghanistan, and elsewhere arrived in germany. anecdotal evidence suggests that this inflow changed the public opinion on hosting asylum seekers, from being highly welcoming to fairly negative within a few months. using individual- and county-level panel data, we test whether the evidence supports this apparent shift in attitudes. in a difference-in-differences design, we compare the attitudes of individuals in areas with large vs. small local inflows before and after the inflow. in individual survey data, we find mixed evidence of an impact on social cohesion. in a representative sample, we find no evidence that the inflow undermined social cohesion, except for a negative effect on donations to charity. in areas with high vote shares for the populist party afd, we find that the inflow led to greater anti-immigrant sentiment and a greater concern about crime. we also show that areas with larger increases in the number of asylum seekers experienced a significant increase in anti-immigrant violence, which lasted for about two years before returning to its pre-inflow level. this effect was larger in areas with higher unemployment and greater support for afd. 20. title: coercive and catalytic strategies for human rights promotion: state violence and foreign assistance authors: hillary corwin abstract: there is tremendous variation in whether and how donors respond to severe human rights violations using foreign aid. donors that respond choose between two strategic options: coercion, which uses aid and the threat of withdrawal as material leverage to influence recipient leaders� behaviors, and catalysis, which uses aid for developing political systems in the recipient country to limit state violence from within. once a donor decides to respond, what determines its strategic choices? i argue that two factors help to answer this question: how exposed the donor�s interests are to problems stemming from human rights violations, and how costly each strategy would be to the donor. i use tobit models to estimate how donor interests moderate the relationship between state violence and aid to economic and governance sectors from all oecd donors to all eligible recipients from 2003 to 2018. i find that donors typically prioritize catalytic strategies during this time period, but substitute coercive strategies when political liberalization would be difficult to achieve or undesirable from the donor�s perspective. 21. title: the collusion trap: theory with evidence from informal markets in lagos, nigeria authors: shelby grossman, alisha c. holland abstract: informal actors often compete with formal or regulated ones. regulated actors therefore can be natural allies in government attempts to enforce laws and regulations. yet they often are not. we argue that the lack of cooperation stems from a collusion trap. collectively, formal actors are better off if informal actors are removed; individually, some can benefit from their presence. we demonstrate these dynamics in the context of lagos, nigeria, where millions of informal street vendors compete with traders in licensed markets. we draw on original survey data from 1,179 market traders across 199 associations and qualitative interviews with organization leaders, market traders, street vendors, and government officials in two markets with varying organizational capacity. we show how a negative equilibrium emerges in which limited state enforcement encourages wholesale traders, who can profit from street vendors� distribution network, to collude with street vendors. association leaders also prefer to extract rents from some street 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