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volume 137, issue 4, november 2022
1. title: systemic discrimination among large u.s. employers
authors: patrick kline, evan k rose, christopher r walters
abstract: we study the results of a massive nationwide correspondence experiment sending more than 83,000 fictitious applications with randomized characteristics to geographically dispersed jobs posted by 108 of the largest u.s. employers. distinctively black names reduce the probability of employer contact by 2.1 percentage points relative to distinctively white names. the magnitude of this racial gap in contact rates differs substantially across firms, exhibiting a between-company standard deviation of 1.9 percentage points. despite an insignificant average gap in contact rates between male and female applicants, we find a between-company standard deviation in gender contact gaps of 2.7 percentage points, revealing that some firms favor male applicants and others favor women. company-specific racial contact gaps are temporally and spatially persistent, and negatively correlated with firm profitability, federal contractor status, and a measure of recruiting centralization. discrimination exhibits little geographical dispersion, but two-digit industry explains roughly half of the cross-firm variation in both racial and gender contact gaps. contact gaps are highly concentrated in particular companies, with firms in the top quintile of racial discrimination responsible for nearly half of lost contacts to black applicants in the experiment. controlling false discovery rates to the 5% level, 23 companies are found to discriminate against black applicants. our findings establish that discrimination against distinctively black names is concentrated among a select set of large employers, many of which can be identified with high confidence using large-scale inference methods.
2. title: valuing the global mortality consequences of climate change accounting for adaptation costs and benefits
authors: tamma carleton, amir jina, michael delgado, michael greenstone, trevor houser ...
abstract: using 40 countries� subnational data, we estimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships and extrapolate them to countries without data today and into a future with climate change. we uncover a u-shaped relationship where extre6me cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, especially for the elderly. critically, this relationship is flattened by higher incomes and adaptation to local climate. using a revealed-preference approach to recover unobserved adaptation costs, we estimate that the mean global increase in mortality risk due to climate change, accounting for adaptation benefits and costs, is valued at roughly 3.2% of global gdp in 2100 under a high-emissions scenario. notably, today�s cold locations are projected to benefit, while today�s poor and hot locations have large projected damages. finally, our central estimates indicate that the release of an additional ton of co2 today will cause mortality-related damages of $36.6 under a high-emissions scenario, with an interquartile range accounting for both econometric and climate uncertainty of ["$7.8, $73.0]. these empirically grounded estimates exceed the previous literature s estimates by an order of magnitude.
3. title: reshaping global trade: the immediate and long-run effects of bank failures
authors: chenzi xu
abstract: i show that a disruption to the financial sector can reshape the patterns of global trade for decades. i study the first modern global banking crisis originating in london in 1866 and collect archival loan records that link multinational banks headquartered there to their lending abroad. countries exposed to bank failures in london immediately exported significantly less and did not recover their lost growth relative to unexposed places. their market shares within each destination also remained significantly lower for four decades. decomposing the persistent market-share losses shows that they primarily stem from lack of extensive-margin growth, as the financing shock caused importers to source more from new trade partnerships. exporters producing more substitutable goods, those with little access to alternative forms of credit, and those trading with more distant partners experienced more persistent losses, consistent with the existence of sunk costs and the importance of finance for intermediating trade.
4. title: sexual harassment and gender inequality in the labor market
authors: olle folke, johanna rickne
abstract: we describe how sexual harassment contributes to sex segregation and pay inequality in the labor market. combining nationally representative survey data and administrative data, we show that both harassment and wages vary strongly and systematically across workplaces. women self-report more harassment from colleagues and managers in male-dominated workplaces where wages are relatively high, and men self-report more harassment in female-dominated workplaces where wages are low. these patterns imply two ways that harassment may contribute to gender inequality. first, harassment deters women and men from applying for jobs in workplaces where they are the gender minority. a survey experiment with hypothetical job choices supports this mechanism. respondents are highly averse to accepting jobs in workplaces with a higher harassment risk for their own gender, but less averse when people of the opposite sex are at higher risk. a second way that harassment contributes to inequality is by making workplace gender minorities leave their workplaces for new jobs. an analysis of workplace transitions supports this mechanism. women who self-report harassment are more likely to switch to new workplaces with more female colleagues and lower pay.
5. title: the quality and efficiency of public and private firms: evidence from ambulance services
authors: daniel knutsson, bj�rn tyrefors
abstract: economic theory predicts that outsourcing public services to private firms reduces costs, but the effect on quality is ambiguous. we explore quality differences between publicly and privately owned ambulances in stockholm county, sweden, a setting where patients are as good as randomly assigned to ambulances with different ownership status. we find that private ambulances reduce costs and perform better on contracted measures such as response time, but perform worse on noncontracted measures such as mortality. in fact, a patient has a 1.4% higher risk of death within three years if a private ambulance is dispatched (in aggregate, 420 more deaths each year). we also present evidence of the mechanism at work, suggesting that private firms cut costs at the expense of ambulance staff quality.
6. title: does welfare prevent crime? the criminal justice outcomes of youth removed from ssi
authors: manasi deshpande, michael mueller-smith
abstract: we estimate the effect of losing supplemental security income (ssi) benefits at age 18 on criminal justice and employment outcomes over the next two decades. to estimate this effect, we use a regression discontinuity design in the likelihood of being reviewed for ssi eligibility at age 18 created by the 1996 welfare reform law. we evaluate this natural experiment with social security administration data linked to records from the criminal justice administrative records system. we find that ssi removal increases the number of criminal charges by a statistically significant 20% over the next two decades. the increase in charges is concentrated in offenses for which income generation is a primary motivation (60% increase), especially theft, burglary, fraud/forgery, and prostitution. the effect of ssi removal on criminal justice involvement persists more than two decades later, even as the effect of removal on contemporaneous ssi receipt diminishes. in response to ssi removal, youth are twice as likely to be charged with an illicit income-generating offense than they are to maintain steady employment at |${\$} $|15,000/year in the labor market. as a result of these charges, the annual likelihood of incarceration increases by a statistically significant 60% in the two decades following ssi removal. the costs to taxpayers of enforcement and incarceration from ssi removal are so high that they nearly eliminate the savings to taxpayers from reduced ssi benefits.
7. title: labor market returns and the evolution of cognitive skills: theory and evidence
authors: santiago hermo, miika p��llysaho, david seim, jesse m shapiro
abstract: a large literature in cognitive science studies the puzzling �flynn effect� of rising fluid intelligence (reasoning skill) in rich countries. we develop an economic model in which a cohort�s mix of skills is determined by different skills� relative returns in the labor market and by the technology for producing skills. we estimate the model using administrative data from sweden. combining data from exams taken at military enlistment with earnings records from the tax register, we document an increase in the relative labor market return to logical reasoning skill as compared to vocabulary knowledge. the estimated model implies that changes in labor market returns explain 37% of the measured increase in reasoning skill, and can also explain the decline in knowledge. an original survey of parents, an analysis of trends in school curricula, and an analysis of occupational characteristics show evidence of increasing emphasis on reasoning as compared to knowledge.
8. title: army service in the all-volunteer era
authors: kyle greenberg, matthew gudgeon, adam isen, corbin miller, richard patterson
abstract: since the beginning of the all-volunteer era, millions of young americans have chosen to enlist in the military. these volunteers disproportionately come from disadvantaged backgrounds, and while some aspects of military service are likely to be beneficial, exposure to violence and other elements of service could worsen outcomes. this article links the universe of army applicants between 1990 and 2011 to their federal tax records and other administrative data and uses two eligibility thresholds in the armed forces qualification test (afqt) in a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effects of army enlistment on earnings and related outcomes. in the 19 years following application, army service increases average annual earnings by over |${\$} $|4,000 at both cutoffs. however, whether service increases long-run earnings varies significantly by race. black servicemembers experience annual gains of |${\$} $|5,500 to |${\$} $|15,000 11�19 years after applying while white servicemembers do not experience significant changes. by providing black servicemembers a stable and well-paying army job and by opening doors to higher-paid postservice employment, the army significantly closes the black-white earnings gap in our sample.
9. title: competing models
authors: jos� luis montiel olea, pietro ortoleva, mallesh m pai, andrea prat
abstract: different agents need to make a prediction. they observe identical data, but have different models: they predict using different explanatory variables. we study which agent believes they have the best predictive ability�as measured by the smallest subjective posterior mean squared prediction error�and show how it depends on the sample size. with small samples, we present results suggesting it is an agent using a low-dimensional model. with large samples, it is generally an agent with a high-dimensional model, possibly including irrelevant variables, but never excluding relevant ones. we apply our results to characterize the winning model in an auction of productive assets, to argue that entrepreneurs and investors with simple models will be overrepresented in new sectors, and to understand the proliferation of �factors� that explain the cross-sectional variation of expected stock returns in the asset-pricing literature.
10. title: improving management through worker evaluations: evidence from auto manufacturing
authors: jing cai, shing-yi wang
abstract: using a randomized experiment with an automobile manufacturing firm in china, we measure the effects of letting workers evaluate their managers on worker and firm outcomes. in the treatment teams, workers evaluate their managers monthly. we find that providing feedback leads to significant reductions in worker turnover and increases in team-level productivity. in addition, workers report higher levels of happiness and well-being. the evidence suggests that these results are driven by learning by managers, leading to changes in their behavior and an overall better relationship between managers and workers.
11. title: price discrimination by negotiation: a field experiment in retail electricity
authors: david p byrne, leslie a martin, jia sheen nah
abstract: we use a field experiment to study price discrimination in a market with price posting and negotiation. motivated by concerns that low-income consumers do poorly in markets with privately negotiated prices, we built a call center staffed with actors armed with bargaining scripts to reveal negotiated prices and their determinants. our actors implement sequential bargaining games under incomplete information in the field. by experimentally manipulating how information is revealed, we generate sequences of price offers that allow us to identify price discrimination in negotiations based on retailer perceptions of consumers� search and switching costs. we also document differences in price distributions between entrants and incumbents, reflecting differences in captivity of their respective consumer bases. finally, we show that higher prices paid by lower-income subsidy recipients in our market is not due to discriminatory targeting; they can be explained by variation in consumer willingness and ability to search and bargain.
12. title: investing in infants: the lasting effects of cash transfers to new families
authors: andrew barr, jonathan eggleston, alexander a smith
abstract: we provide new evidence that cash transfers following the birth of a first child can have large and long-lasting effects on that child�s outcomes. we take advantage of the january 1 birthdate cutoff for u.s. child-related tax benefits, which results in families of otherwise similar children receiving substantially different refunds during the first year of life. for the average low-income single-child family in our sample, this difference amounts to roughly |${\$} $|1,300, or 10% of income. using the universe of administrative federal tax data in selected years, we show that this transfer in infancy increases young adult earnings by at least 1%�2%, with larger effects for males. these effects show up at earlier ages in terms of improved math and reading test scores and a higher likelihood of high-school graduation. the observed effects on shorter-run parental outcomes suggest that additional liquidity during the critical window following the birth of a first child leads to persistent increases in family income that likely contribute to the downstream effects on children�s outcomes. the longer-term effects on child earnings alone are large enough that the transfer pays for itself through subsequent increases in federal income tax revenue.
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