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��ࡱ�>�� u �r��bjbj�n�n2��a��a�� ""��8��4�rl��kqmqmqmqmqmqmq$|s�2vf�q9��q��4�q��kq�kq��6[��wq�q0r�xv/:xv��/xv�_n��q�qi@r��xv"qs: global environmental change volume 73, issue 2, march 2022 1. title: factors influencing hazard management by municipalities: the case of coastal communities authors: annie lalancette, anthony charles abstract: as climate and anthropogenic changes increase the vulnerability of coastal areas around the world, the threat (and reality) of coastal hazards grows. these threats arise particularly at a local level, calling out for more knowledge on how to best support coastal municipalities to deal with natural and human-induced hazards. this study seeks to add to the understanding through an examination of local-level experience with hazard planning and responses carried out by coastal municipalities, producing insights on how to reduce their vulnerability and support their resilience. it explores the factors influencing coastal municipalities� management of relevant hazards to achieve comprehensive multi-hazard risk reduction and adaptation. we do so through a national survey of canada�s coastal municipalities which assessed experience with hazards, risk perception, hazard prioritization, and the extent and specifics of hazard responses. we characterize the determinants of coastal municipalities� behaviour and intervening factors, and conduct regression analyses to explain coastal municipalities� risk perception, hazard prioritization, implementation of management processes for dealing with hazards, and the number of implemented or planned hazard responses. six key factors were identified that influence hazard responses at the municipal level: experience with hazards; competing priorities; hazard visibility; access to resources (financial and technical capacity) and governance (institutional setting and political capacity). we conclude that municipal hazard responses can be reinforced by increasing the effectiveness of risk communication, promoting participatory processes, providing support for municipalities� identified needs and priorities, ensuring municipalities have access to relevant information and expertise, and implementing integrated coastal governance and management. 2. title: does hostility affect public support for the provision of global public goods among competing neighboring countries? a survey experiment in northeast asia authors: tomomi yamane, shinji kaneko abstract: cooperation beyond the borders of sovereign states and investment in global public goods (gpgs) are essential for tackling transboundary challenges, such as climate change, marine pollution, and health security. however, little is known about how regional tension or isolationism might affect cooperation with neighboring countries on transboundary issues. thus, in this study, using a conjoint experiment of representative samples from members of the public in japan, china, and south korea, we investigated: 1) public support for gpgs using the case of trilateral cooperation for the establishment of common global funds among japan, china, and south korea; and 2) the extent to which hostility toward neighboring countries affects such public support. the results showed that chinese people had lower hostility toward neighboring countries and higher public support. both japanese and south koreans had higher hostility. meanwhile, public support was lower in japan but moderate in south korea. these results suggest that hostility toward neighboring countries affects public support for gpgs. the stronger the hostility toward neighboring countries is, the lower the public support for international cooperation becomes. however, the mechanisms of these effects are complex. generally, hostility toward a government has more negative effects than hostility toward people of the same country. furthermore, the present study provides important insights based on the findings that chinese strongly supported building gpgs with neighboring countries, and people in all three countries somewhat supported equal sharing of the financial burden. however, authorization mechanisms for gpgs are essential, because citizens most supported gpgs managed by their home country. thus, adopting authorization mechanisms to mutually manage funds is essential for widening public support for gpgs. 3. title: the anticipatory governance of sustainability transformations: hybrid approaches and dominant perspectives authors: karlijn muiderman, monika zurek, joost vervoort, aarti gupta, ... peter driessen abstract: anticipation methods and tools are increasingly used to try to imagine and govern transformations towards more sustainable futures across different policy domains and sectors. but there is a lack of research into the steering effects of anticipation on present-day governance choices, especially in the face of urgently needed sustainability transformations. this paper seeks to understand how different perspectives on anticipatory governance connect to attempts to guide policy and action toward transformative change. we analyze perspectives on anticipatory governance in a global network of food system foresight practitioners (foresight4food) � using a workshop, interviews, and a survey as our sources of data. we connect frameworks on anticipatory governance and on transformation to analyse different perspectives on the future and their implications for actions in the present to transform food systems and offer new insights for theory and practice. in the global foresight4food network, we find that most foresight practitioners use hybrid approaches to anticipatory governance that combine fundamentally different assumptions about the future. we also find that despite these diverse food futures, anticipation processes predominantly produce recommendations that follow more prediction-oriented forms of strategic planning in order to mitigate future risks. we further demonstrate that much anticipation for transformation uses the language on deep uncertainty and deliberative action without fully taking its consequences on board. thus, opportunities for transforming future food systems are missed due to these implicit assumptions that dominate the anticipatory governance of food systems. our combined framework helps researchers and practitioners to be more reflexive of how assumptions about key human systems such as food system futures shape what is prioritized/marginalized and included/excluded in actions to transform such systems. 4. title: the contribution of energy law to the energy transition and energy research authors: kaisa huhta abstract: fact, law often remains confined within its silo, inaccessible to non-lawyers due to its distinctive methodological characteristics and internal jargon. this article aims to initiate an accessible dialogue between energy law and other energy-focused disciplines. it first explains how energy law, as a legal discipline, should be understood in this context and what that implies for energy law as a system of governance. it then explores the interface between energy law and other disciplines in which research into the energy transition is carried out. the article identifies and evaluates the roles of energy law in the energy transition, concluding with a summary of the implications of the role of energy law for the energy transition and for energy research. 5. title: does funds-based adaptation finance reach the most vulnerable countries? authors: matthias garschagen, deepal doshi abstract: the evolving architecture of global climate change adaptation finance is shifting towards fund mechanisms with competitive application and allocation principles. at the same time, prioritization of the most vulnerable countries is a key goal within this emerging architecture. the paper analyses whether the green climate fund (gcf), by far the largest climate change fund, has so far delivered on its promise to prioritize the most vulnerable countries. for our analysis, we consider the usd 2.5 billion gcf funding allocated until the end of the first mobilization phase and disaggregate it project-by-project into its mitigation and adaptation related amounts. we then analyze the adaptation flows in terms of the recipient country�s level of vulnerability and institutional capacity. we further analyze whether funds are being accessed through independent national entities or international intermediaries and whether recipient countries have developing country priority status. the results show that funds-based adaptation finance creates an ambiguous picture: on the one hand, the gcf is on track in allocating its funds largely to country groups which its statutes aim to prioritize, particularly ldcs, african countries and sids. at the same time, the proposal process results in the fact that many countries with the highest climate vulnerability but weak government institutions and fragile state-bureaucracies have missed out and not been able to access project funding, mostly ldcs in africa and conflict-ridden countries. further, most countries have not yet been able to access project funds independently through their national entities, limiting direct access and country ownership � the strengthening of which is a major goal of the fund. the findings suggest that simplified approval tracks need to be strengthened in the emerging climate finance architecture so that populations in countries with the lowest institutional capacity but highest vulnerability are not being left behind in the long-run. 6. title: drivers and dimensions of flood risk perceptions: revealing an implicit selection bias and lessons for communication policies authors: samuel rufat, w.j. wouter botzen abstract: flood damages have increased in many regions around the world, and they are expected to continue to rise in the future due to climate change. to reverse this trend, awareness of flood risk among the population is required to support flood risk management policies and improve flood preparedness. however, empirical studies on the drivers of flood risk perceptions conducted thus far have reported mixed and contradictory results. the aim of this study is to provide insights into the factors that influence perceptions of various dimensions of flood risk to draw lessons to guide flood risk communication strategies. we test a variety of hypotheses of possible factors of influence on flood risk perceptions that are motivated by theoretical concepts and previous empirical studies, whilst also controlling for socio-demographic variables. a representative sample of 2,976 residents answered our survey assessing the role that past flood experiences and risk communication play in shaping flood risk perceptions. besides exploring flood risk perceptions more robustly, this large sample also facilitates the systematic study of �don�t know� answers, which are often dismissed as missing data in many studies. rather in this study we analyze what �don�t know� answers reflect in terms of knowledge about particular dimensions of flood risk. the study finds that older people, as well as those who have higher levels of income and education, are significantly more likely to express their flood risk perceptions, respondents who are unable to answer the questions on flood risk perceptions face a lower flood risk, report to have been living in their neighbourhood for a shorter period of time and have less first-hand flood experience. previous studies might thus be biased by an implicit selection effect. finally, we show that findings are highly dependent on other explicit choices made by researchers, including the apparently self-fulfilling impact of selecting one explanatory framework over another. new insights emerge from the role that information campaigns and social vulnerability play in the ability to answer the questions. based on our findings, we offer recommendations for improving flood risk communication policies, specifically increasing the frequency of communication, ensuring that campaigns are focused in terms of the content they provide and the subgroups of the population they target. 7. title: covid-19 to go? the role of disasters and evacuation in the covid-19 pandemic authors: courtney page-tan, timothy fraser abstract: since the start of the pandemic, some u.s. communities have faced record storms, fires, and floods. communities have confronted the increased challenge of curbing the spread of covid-19 amid evacuation orders and short-term displacement that result from hazards. this raises the question of whether disasters, evacuations, and displacements have resulted in above-average infection rates during the covid-19 pandemic. this study investigates the relationship between disaster intensity, sheltering-in-place, evacuation-related mobility, and contagion following hurricane zeta in southeastern louisiana and the wildfires in napa and sonoma counties, california, known as the glass fire. we draw on data from the county subdivision level and mapped and aggregated tallies of facebook user movement from the facebook data for good program�s geoinsights portal. we test the effects of disasters, evacuation, and shelter-in-place behaviors on covid-19 spread using panel data models, matched panel models, and synthetic control experiments. our findings suggest associations between disaster intensity and higher rates of covid-19 cases. we also find that while sheltering-in-place led to decreases in the spread of covid-19, evacuation-related mobility did not result in our hypothesized surge of cases immediately after the disasters. the findings from this study aim to inform policymakers and scholars about how to better respond to disasters during multi-crisis events, such as offering hotel accommodations to evacuees instead of mass shelters and updating intake and accommodation procedures at shelters, such as administration temperature screenings, offering hand sanitizing stations, and providing isolated areas for ill evacuees. 8. title: good practice policies to bridge the emissions gap in key countries authors: luiz bernardo baptista, roberto schaeffer, heleen l. van soest, panagiotis fragkos, ... chai qimin abstract: one key aspect of the paris agreement is the goal to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 �c by the end of the century. to achieve the paris agreement goals, countries need to submit, and periodically update, their nationally determined contributions (ndcs). recent studies show that ndcs and currently implemented national policies are not sufficient to cover the ambition level of the temperature limit agreed upon in the paris agreement, meaning that we need to collectively increase climate action to stabilize global warming at levels considered safe. this paper explores the generalization of previously adopted good practice policies (gpps) to bridge the emissions gap between current policies, ndcs ambitions and a well below 2 �c world, facilitating the creation of a bridge trajectory in key major-emitting countries. these gpps are implemented in eleven well-established national integrated assessment models (iams) for australia, brazil, canada, china, european union (eu), india, indonesia, japan, russia, south korea, and the united states, that provide least-cost, low-carbon scenarios up to 2050. results show that gpps can play an important role in each region, with energy supply policies appearing as one of the biggest contributors to the reduction of carbon emissions. however, gpps by themselves are not enough to close the emission gap, and as such more will be needed in these economies to collectively increase climate action to stabilize global warming at levels considered safe. 9. title: imperialist appropriation in the world economy: drain from the global south through unequal exchange, 1990�2015 authors: jason hickel, christian dorninger, hanspeter wieland, intan suwandi abstract: unequal exchange theory posits that economic growth in the �advanced economies� of the global north relies on a large net appropriation of resources and labour from the global south, extracted through price differentials in international trade. past attempts to estimate the scale and value of this drain have faced a number of conceptual and empirical limitations, and have been unable to capture the upstream resources and labour embodied in traded goods. here we use environmental input-output data and footprint analysis to quantify the physical scale of net appropriation from the south in terms of embodied resources and labour over the period 1990 to 2015. we then represent the value of appropriated resources in terms of prevailing market prices. our results show that in 2015 the north net appropriated from the south 12 billion tons of embodied raw material equivalents, 822 million hectares of embodied land, 21 exajoules of embodied energy, and 188 million person-years of embodied labour, worth $10.8 trillion in northern prices � enough to end extreme poverty 70 times over. over the whole period, drain from the south totalled $242 trillion (constant 2010 usd). this drain represents a significant windfall for the global north, equivalent to a quarter of northern gdp. for comparison, we also report drain in global average prices. using this method, we find that the south�s losses due to unequal exchange outstrip their total aid receipts over the period by a factor of 30. our analysis confirms that unequal exchange is a significant driver of global inequality, uneven development, and ecological breakdown. 10. title: conflicted transitions: exploring the actors, tactics, and outcomes of social opposition against energy infrastructure authors: benjamin k. sovacool, david j. hess, roberto cantoni, dasom lee, ... shubhi goel abstract: given the growing frequency, severity, and salience of social mobilization and community action on energy and climate issues, in this study we systematically explore the configurations of types of infrastructure, actors, tactics, and outcomes of recent opposition to energy transitions across seven carbon-intensive regions in asia, europe, and north america. based on both a literature review and an original dataset of 130 case studies spanning the past decade, we track opposition to a wide range of energy infrastructure in these regions, including low-carbon options such as renewable energy and nuclear power; provide network analyses of the actors and coalitions involved in such events; and develop a typology and frequency analysis of tactics (such as litigation or protest), and outcomes (such as remuneration, policy change, concessions, or labor protections). we show that the politics of energy transitions in carbon-intensive regions varies significantly from country to country and across types of energy, and we discuss how the configurations of infrastructure, actors, tactics, and outcomes can be explained by differences in national institutions and their responses to global or supranational pressures. by bringing both a sociotechnical and comparative perspective to the global analysis of social movements and energy transitions, we suggest how goals of energy transition are refracted through national and subnational institutions and through local mobilizations both in support of and opposed to those transitions. 11. title: the role of working-class communities and the slow violence of toxic pollution in environmental health conflicts: a global perspective authors: grettel navas, giacomo d'alisa, joan mart�nez-alier abstract: analysing a sample of 3,033 environmental conflicts around the globe, we compared conflicts reporting no human health impacts to those reporting health impacts linked to toxic pollution. our study suggests four main findings. first, health impacts are a key concern for working-class communities. second, the long-term effects of toxic pollution undermine communities' ability to act preventively. third, industrial activities, waste management and nuclear energy conflicts are more likely to report health impacts than other economic activities. last, mobilising groups are reluctant to consider the closure of a polluting project a successful outcome because of the persistence of toxic pollution across time. our results contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics of what we have termed �environmental health conflicts� (ehcs). 12. title: willingness-to-pay for carbon dioxide offsets: field evidence on revealed preferences in the aviation industry authors: sebastian berger, andreas kilchenmann, oliver lenz, francisco schl�der abstract: voluntary offsetting of flight-related emissions is an important cornerstone of passengers� individual efforts to contribute to climate change mitigation. hence, many scientific studies have tried to assess people�s willingness-to-pay to offset their own flight-related carbon emissions. up-to-date, these studies are overwhelmingly grounded in hypothetical stated-preference approaches, with very limited knowledge about external validity. here, we report on an observational field study involving a final sample of 63,520 bookings made with a european airline, allowing us to gauge actual willingness-to-pay for carbon dioxide compensation in a revealed-preference approach. our pre-registered study shows that the median willingness-to-pay to voluntarily offset a ton of carbon dioxide from flight-related emissions is zero, with the mean willingness-to-pay being around 1 eur. aggregated voluntary willingness-to-pay thus dramatically falls short of current prices to offset carbon dioxide, for example through the eu-ets. our results thereby question the suitability of self-reported, hypothetical assessments of offsetting and raise caution about the effectiveness of offsetting schemes, which currently do not very successfully internalize flight-related cost of emissions. 13. title: tackling the climate, biodiversity and pollution emergencies by making peace with nature 50 years after the stockholm conference authors: ivar a. baste, robert t. watson abstract: today�s increasingly unequal and resource intensive development model degrades and surpasses earth�s finite capacity to sustain human well-being. society must restore this capacity and adapt to it without surrendering hard won development gains while also honoring the rightful aspirations of poorer nations and people to enjoy better living standards, according to the unep report �making peace with nature�. this article presents findings from the report and reflections on how to take advantage of the 50 years of experience gained since the stockholm conference on the human environment. the interconnected environmental emergencies of climate change, loss of biodiversity and pollution need to be addressed together. international scientific assessments are providing the knowledge base for informed evidence-based decision-making, but none of the internationally agreed environmentally targets for climate and biodiversity have been met and the situation is becoming more dire with each passing year. unless these issues are addressed in the next 5�10 years none of the 2030 sustainable development goals will be achieved. human knowledge, ingenuity, technology and cooperation need to be mobilized in such an effort. the 2030 agenda for sustainable development with its 17 sustainable development goals provides a blueprint for the transformation. the international environmental governance structure needs to facilitate a system-wide cross-sectoral transformation of humankind's relationship with nature. transformed economic, financial and productive systems can lead and power the shift to sustainability. major shifts in investment and regulation are key to just and informed transformations that overcome inertia and opposition from vested interests. government actions at all levels are needed together with strengthened actions by all actors in society and the next decade is critical. 14. title: the tragedy of the commodity is not inevitable: indigenous resistance prevents high-value fisheries collapse in the pacific islands authors: caroline e. ferguson, nathan j. bennett, william kostka, robert h. richmond, ann singeo abstract: the emergence of export markets for high-value seafood products tends to produce a predictable pattern of serial depletion of resources and social disruption in coastal communities, a phenomenon described as �the tragedy of the commodity�. the sea cucumber trade epitomizes these challenges, with cases of rapid growth followed by fishery collapse documented across the indo-pacific and the majority of assessed stocks worldwide overexploited. is this �boom-bust� sequence inevitable? we examine three cases of resistance to the sea cucumber trade from palau, pohnpei, and yap. despite the overwhelming short-term financial incentives to export, fishers, youth, elected and traditional leaders, and civil society organizations coordinated to ban the trade at its peak, using public protest, court battles, and customary and statutory law. we show that, like the tragedy of the commons, indigenous peoples and local communities can organize to resist the tragedy of the commodity. they do so by asserting indigenous values, rights, and institutions, recommonizing the resource and preventing fisheries collapse. these cases challenge the inevitability of the tragedy of the commodity and the narrative of poor fishers as vulnerable and disempowered. 15. title: a global analysis of urbanization effects on amphibian richness: patterns and drivers authors: lu yang, shuqing zhao, shuguang liu abstract: urbanization presents an unplanned and highly replicated global experiment to understand biotic responses to global changes. here we conducted a global analysis on patterns and drivers of urbanization effects on biodiversity using the global amphibian richness dataset along with background climate and the continuous rural-urban gradients. we, for the first time, empirically generalized the urbanizational gradients of amphibian richness at the global scale and in different climate zones despite the substantial differences in history, ecological context, and socioeconomic conditions across large geospatial extents. we found a positive imprint of urbanization on amphibian richness in cool and climate zones whereas the presence of urban thermal stress in high temperature climate zones. anthropogenic forces behind the urbanization gradients entangled with environmental variables directly and indirectly drove the patterns as revealed by the structural equation modeling (sem). the urbanizational diversity gradient (udg) found in this study might signify the existence of another general principle in ecology analogous to well-known latitudinal and elevational diversity gradients. we proposed the heat-and-threat balance (hatb) hypothesis to explain udg: urbanization-induced heat would promote biodiversity if the ambient temperatures are cooler than their optima. alternatively, it may put threats on biodiversity when the ambient temperatures are close to their optima. there is an urgent need to advance the knowledge on udg in an urbanizing planet by additional studies from diverse taxa, various geographical locations, and at different scales. 16. title: ok boomer: a decade of generational differences in feelings about climate change authors: janet k. swim, rosemary aviste, michael l. lengieza, carlie j. fasano abstract: the emergence of concern about and evidence of climate change has been argued to create a cultural milieu unique to the millennial generation (born between 1981 and 1996) and igeneration (aka igens or generation z born after 1997). the present research tested a) claims of unique angst about climate change among younger versus older generations, b) growing generational discrepancies over time in emotions about climate change, c) generational differences for several emotions about climate change, and d) the implications of these emotions for motivating people to discuss climate change with others, potentially aiding coping with climate change and facilitating action to address climate change. survey data gathered from 2010 to 2019 of a representative sample of united states residents (n = 22,468) document greater increases in worry about climate change and, to a lesser degree, anger and guilt about climate change, within the two youngest generations relative to changes among generation x, baby boomers, and the silent and greatest generations. although generational differences were small and suggest overstatements of unique effects for younger generations, increases in younger generations� emotions transform into the two youngest generations reporting the strongest emotions in 2019. over ten years, these differential shifts in emotions explain more substantial increases in the frequency of discussing climate in the youngest generations. 17. title: which states will lead a just transition for the arctic? a deeper analysis of global data on arctic states and formal observer states authors: darren mccauley, kerry a. pettigrew, mia m. bennett, iain todd, corine wood-donnelly abstract: a fair and equitable low carbon future depends on a just transition which, in turn, requires leadership. where the arctic is concerned, this leadership is currently lacking. to gauge which states are most likely to provide leadership in the global energy transition, a quantitative rank-percentile assessment of 21 arctic council members and observer states was conducted, using measures relevant to the just transition. data from multiple open-access sources were combined, creating a model to �evaluate energy and equity aspects of distributional, procedural and restorative� justice (deeper). results suggest normative leadership on a just transition for the arctic comprises international climate contributions in line with carbon emission records and a commitment to both fair and green jobs. reflections are made on the positive and negative effects of a more involved eu for the just transition agenda in the arctic. 18. title: the importance of infrastructure and national demand to represent constraints on water supply in the united states authors: james rising, laureline josset, tara troy, upmanu lall abstract: water stress in many regions is a consequence of precipitation that is spatially and temporally distant and the cumulative effects of withdrawals, inter-basin transfers, and reservoirs. most maps of �water risk� do not account for the role of infrastructure and rely on local runoff metrics, which may be a poor proxy for experienced water stress. we present a new spatial and multi-sectoral optimization model of resource networks, applied here to water resources in the united states. the model, awash, includes a detailed representation of surface water and reservoirs, and relates water risk directly to failures to meet water demand as a function of climate. we find that considering the role of water conveyance and storage infrastructure in managing supply leads to a radically different picture of water risk, with substantial reductions due to both types of infrastructure � up to 60% reduction in risk due to conveyance and 38% due to storage. this highlights the importance of accounting of the role of infrastructure in national climate risk assessment and adaptation strategies. 19. title: distributive justice in global climate finance � recipients� climate vulnerability and the allocation of climate funds authors: md. mofakkarul islam abstract: the �climate justice� lens is increasingly being used in framing discussions and debates on global climate finance. a variant of such justice � distributive justice � emphasises recipient countries� vulnerability to be an important consideration in funding allocation. the extent to which this principle is pursued in practice has been of widespread and ongoing concerns. empirical evidence in this regard however remains inadequate and methodologically weak. this research examined the effect of recipients� climate vulnerability on the allocation of climate funds by controlling for other commonly-identified determinants. a dynamic panel regression method based on generalised method of moments (gmm) was used on a longitudinal dataset, containing approved funds for more than 100,000 projects covering three areas of climate action (mitigation, adaptation, and overlap) in 133 countries over two decades (2000�2018). findings indicated a non-significant effect of recipients� vulnerability on mitigation funding, but significant positive effects on adaptation and overlap fundings. �most vulnerable� countries were likely to receive higher amounts of these two types of funding than the �least vulnerable� countries. all these provided evidence of distributive justice. however, the relationship between vulnerability and funding was parabolic, suggesting �moderately vulnerable� countries likely to receive more funding than the �most vulnerable� countries. whilst, for mitigation funding, this observation was not a reason for concern, for adaptation and overlap fundings this was not in complete harmony with distributive justice. paradoxically, countries with better investment readiness were likely to receive more adaptation and overlap funds. in discordance with distributive justice, countries within the sub-saharan africa and south asia regions, despite their higher climatic vulnerabilities, were likely to receive significantly less adaptation and overlap fundings. effects of vulnerability were persistent, and past funding had significant effects on current funding. these, coupled with the impact of readiness, suggested a probable low funding trap for the world�s most vulnerable countries. the overarching conclusion is that, although positive changes have occurred since the 2015 paris agreement, considerable challenges to distributive justice remain. significant data and methodological challenges encountered in the research and their implications are also discussed. 20. title: greenhouse gas emissions from global cities under ssp/rcp scenarios, 1990 to 2100 authors: kevin r. gurney, ^iir k1lk1_, karen c. seto, shuaib lwasa, ... muhammed luqman abstract: projections of greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions are critical to enable a better understanding and anticipation of future climate change under different socio-economic conditions and mitigation strategies. the climate projections and scenarios assessed by the intergovernmental panel on climate change, following the shared socioeconomic pathway (ssp)-representative concentration pathway (rcp) framework, have provided a rich understanding of the constraints and opportunities for policy action. however, the current emissions scenarios lack an explicit treatment of urban emissions within the global context. given the pace and scale of urbanization, with global urban populations expected to increase from about 4.4 billion today to about 7 billion by 2050, there is an urgent need to fill this knowledge gap. here, we estimate the share of global ghg emissions driven by urban areas from 1990 to 2100 based on the ssp-rcp framework. the urban consumption-based ghg emissions are presented in five regional aggregates and based on a combination of the urban population share, 2015 urban per capita co2eq carbon footprint, ssp-based national co2eq emissions, and recent analysis of urban per capita co2eq trends. we find that urban areas account for the majority of global ghg emissions in 2015 (61.8%). moreover, the urban share of global ghg emissions progressively increases into the future, exceeding 80% in some scenarios by the end of the century. the combined urban areas in asia and developing pacific, and developed countries account for 65.0% to 73.3% of cumulative urban consumption-based emissions between 2020 and 2100 across the scenarios. given these dominant roles, we describe the implications for potential urban mitigation in each of the scenario narratives in order to meet the goal of climate neutrality within this century. 21. title: china�s rising influence on climate governance: forging a path for the global south authors: jianfeng jeffrey qi, peter dauvergne abstract: china�s influence on climate governance has been steadily increasing since the adoption of the paris agreement on climate change in 2015. much of this influence, this article argues, has come from china forging a path for climate adaptation and mitigation for the global south. this is having far-reaching consequences, the article further argues, for the politics of global climate governance. china�s discursive and diplomatic power in climate politics is growing as china builds alliances across the global south. china is leveraging this enhanced soft power to elevate the importance of adaptation in multilateral climate negotiations, advance a technocentric approach to climate mitigation, export its development model, and promote industrial-scale afforestation as a nature-based climate solution. china�s strategy is enhancing climate financing, technology transfers, renewable power, and adaptation infrastructure across the global south. to some extent, this is helping with a transition to a low-carbon world economy. yet china�s leadership is also reinforcing incremental, technocratic, and growth-oriented solutions in global climate governance. these findings advance the understanding of china�s role in global environmental politics, especially its growing influence on climate governance in the global south. 22. title: methods matter: improved practices for environmental evaluation of dietary patterns authors: friederike ziegler, peter h. tyedmers, robert w.r. parker abstract: making food systems more sustainable is one of humanity�s largest challenges. over two decades of life cycle assessment research on the environmental performance of food systems has helped to inform efforts to address this challenge. in recent years, there has been much interest in aggregating the results of these studies at scales of national production, dietary patterns, and future food scenarios. the process of comparing impacts of diverse products based on extant literature presents numerous challenges which have been inadequately addressed. drawing upon examples of greenhouse gas emissions and seafood systems, we suggest best practices to support more complete, consistent, and comparable aggregation practices. ultimately this would lead to more robust industry and consumer decisions and public policy. we suggest to: 1) define product groups reflecting impact drivers and in accordance with study goals, 2) select studies in a transparent way whose methods are consistent, and 3) assess results in the context of actual production or consumption patterns. applying these practices would strengthen food life cycle assessment aggregation studies as a tool guiding towards sustainable food systems. 23. title: from mountains to megaregions: a powershed analysis of the third pole hydropower boom authors: tyler harlan, thomas hennig abstract: hydropower is booming in asian river basins originating on the tibetan plateau and adjoining mountain ranges � often referred to as the �third pole.� these plants generate significant power for asia�s megaregions; they also dramatically alter environments, economies, and livelihoods in mountainous regions. yet, current understanding of these developments is limited to specific rivers or countries, obscuring the important relational drivers and characteristics of the boom. in this article, we deploy a novel powershed framework � defined as the material and socio-political infrastructure linking electricity supply and demand areas � to analyze and compare the regional power geographies that shape third pole hydropower development. using this framework, we identify ten powersheds across china, southeast asia, and south asia basins that incorporate the vast majority of new hydropower generation. our analysis reveals a clear trend towards developing large-scale hydropower in the mountains for the purpose of exporting electricity to megaregions. these powersheds are complex and in flux, crossing political and basin boundaries in ways that defy traditional hydropower analyses. this article thus reveals power export to be the main driver of the boom and its characteristics; it also provides a framework for analyzing power geographies worldwide. 24. title: trans-arctic shipping routes expanding faster than the model projections authors: yunfeng cao, shunlin liang, laixiang sun, jiping liu, ... kuishuang feng abstract: rapid declines in arctic sea ice coverage over the past four decades have increased the commercial feasibility of trans-arctic routes. however, the historical changes in navigability of trans-arctic routes remain unclear, and projections by global circulation models (gcms) contain large uncertainties since they cannot simulate long-term arctic sea ice changes. in this study, we determined the changes in trans-arctic routes from 1979 to 2019 by combining two harmonized high-quality daily sea ice products. we found that the trans-arctic routes are becoming navigable much faster than projected by the gcms. the navigation season for open water (ow) vessels along the northeast passage (nep) has lengthened from occasionally navigable in the 1980 s to 92 � 15 days in the 2010 s. in contrast, previous gcm projections have suggested that navigability would not be achieved until the mid-21st century. the 90-day safety shipping area for ow vessels expanded by 35% during 1979�2018, reaching 8.28 million km2 in 2018, indicating an increasing rate of 0.08 � 0.01 million km2 per year. the shortest trans-arctic routes were also shifted further north than the model projections. regular ships have been able to safely travel north along the islands in the nep and transit through the m�clure strait in the canadian arctic archipelago during the 2010 s, while previous studies have projected that this would not be feasible until the mid-21st century. we also found that the improved navigability of trans-arctic routes enables commercial ships to transport approximately 33�66% (at the same load factor) more goods from east asia to europe during the arctic shipping season than by the traditional suez canal route. these findings highlight the need for aggressive actions to develop mandatory rules that promote navigation safety and strengthen environmental protection in the arctic. 25. title: explaining risk perception of microplastics: results from a representative survey in germany authors: johanna kramm, stefanie steinhoff, simon werschm�ller, beate v�lker, carolin v�lker abstract: plastic pollution through small particles, so-called microplastics, is acknowledged as an environmental problem of global dimension by both politicians, and the public. an increasing number of environmental studies investigate the exposure and effects of microplastics. although there are many open questions, current scientific evidence does not confirm a high risk for the environment. at the same time, the issue receives great public attention, which in turn motivates various political and policy actions. so far, little research has examined the underlying social dimensions, i.e., the factors explaining individual risk perception of microplastics. this paper studies the perception of risks associated with microplastics concerning the environment and human health using data from a representative online survey conducted in germany (n = 1027). we particularly examine the role of socio-demographics, individual awareness, knowledge factors, and the media�s influence on risk perception. our results show that a majority of the respondents rates the risks through microplastics very high for both the environment and human health. regression analyses demonstrate that environmental awareness and knowledge of media narratives are the strongest predictors for this risk perception. our study illustrates the incongruence between scientific knowledge, media framing, and the public opinion concerning the risk posed by microplastics. 26. title: a global comparison of carbon-water-food nexus based on dietary consumption authors: jing-li fan, xiaowei feng, yangyang dong, xian zhang abstract: exploring the environmental impact of dietary consumption has become increasingly important to understand the carbon-water-food nexus, vital to achieving un sustainable development goals. however, the research on diet-based nexus assessment is still lacking. here, we developed an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output (ee-mrio) model with compiling a global mrio table based on the latest global trade analysis project (gtap) 10 database, where we specifically constructed a water withdrawal account and matched it to each economy at the sectoral level. the regional heterogeneity and synergy of carbon-water nexus affected by dietary patterns in nine countries was explored. the results show that: (1) dietary consumption is the main use of water withdrawal for each country; japan, the us, south korea, and india have a high per capita dietary water footprint. mainly due to consumption of processed rice, japan has the highest per capita value of 488 m3/year, accounting for 63.4% of the total water footprint. (2) the total dietary carbon footprints in china, india, and the us are high, which is mainly caused by the high consumption of animal products (including dairy) either due to the large population (china, india) or animal-based diet (the us). americans have the highest per capita dietary carbon footprint, reaching 755.4 kg/year, 2.76 times that of the global average. (3) generally, imported/foreign footprints account for a greater share in dietary water and carbon footprints of developed countries with an animal-based diet. (4) in the nexus analysis, the us, japan, and south korea are key-nexus countries, vegetables, fruit and nuts, tobacco and beverages, and other food products are selected as key-nexus sectors with relatively high dietary water and carbon footprint. furthermore, dietary consumption choices lead to different environmental impacts. it is particularly important to find a sustainable dietary route adapted to each country considering that heterogeneity and synergism exist in key-nexus sectors to achieve the relevant sustainable development goals. 27. title: what role do climate considerations play in consumption of red meat in norway? authors: arild vatn, marianne aasen, john th�gersen, riley e. dunlap, ... paul stern abstract: reducing emissions of greenhouse gases is facilitated by changes in several consumption activities, such as food choices. this paper examines factors explaining red meat consumption in norway, especially the role of climate concerns. the paper adds to our knowledge as most existing analyses of (red) meat consumption focus on health and animal welfare issues. moreover, it expands our understanding by drawing on perspectives from both institutional and social psychological theory, including variables emphasizing the social dynamics behind consumption decisions. the study is based on data from a survey of 2000 people aged 18 years or older conducted in 2018. the data are analyzed using structural equation modelling. we find that there is a strong pro-meat culture in norway, currently rather weakly influenced by climate concerns � specifically, personal norms and social pressures focused on reducing climate impacts. instead, habits, beliefs about the qualities of red meat (being tasteful, nutritious, healthy) and social norms supporting red meat consumption are the three most important factors explaining the variation observed. gender and income also influence red meat consumption, but less than found in other studies. the paper discusses policy implications of these findings, including for taxation, point-of-sale information and communicative processes to support changes in the perceptions of what could be a new �normal� diet. 28. title: on viability: climate change and the science of possible futures authors: kasia paprocki abstract: growing attention to the impacts of climate change around the world has been accompanied by the profusion of discourses about the lives, livelihoods, and geographies that are �viable� and those that are not in the time of climate change. these discourses of viability often invoke concrete physical limits and tipping points suggesting a transcendent natural order. conversely, i demonstrate how viability is co-produced through political economic structures that exercise power at multiple scales in shaping the environment and understandings of how it is changing. i describe three dialectics of this co-production: epistemic/material (between ideas about viability and their biophysical and political economic conditions), epistemic/normative (between how the world is understood to be and ideas about how we should live in it), and inter-scalar (between geographic scales, where action at one scale shapes both ecologies and understandings of possible action at another). each of these dialectics shapes the knowledge regimes that govern the ambiguous social and biophysical process of disappearance and foreclosure of livelihood possibilities in the time of climate change. i examine these discourses of viability through narratives of unviable agrarian livelihoods in coastal bangladesh, as a lens through which to examine the dialectics of viability more broadly. i situate these discourses concretely in relation to an analysis of interdisciplinary social and natural scientific research on ecological and agrarian viability in coastal bangladesh now and in the future. across a broad interdisciplinary spectrum, i find that scientific attention to political economy shapes the politics of possibility. finally, i demonstrate how discourses of viability limit alternative possible economic and ecological futures. i do this through a concrete examination of the co-production of viable agrarian futures within communities in coastal bangladesh. these alternative visions indicate that the viability of agriculture is shaped by historical and ongoing decisions in the present about cultivation, water management, and development intervention. 29. title: steel stocks and flows of global merchant fleets as material base of international trade from 1980 to 2050 authors: xianghui kong, kuishuang feng, peng wang, zheng wan, ... jiashuo li abstract: exploring the dynamic changes of steel from the ships is critical for developing sustainable strategies for waste management of shipping industry. however, the information of stocks and flows of ships and related steel is currently unavailable, hindering the sustainable development of shipping industry. by collecting dispersed information on production, use, material composition, and end-of-life management of five types ships, we first estimated the historical steel stocks and flows respect to global ships from 1980 to 2019, and further projected the amount of steel scraps from shipbreaking by 2050. the steel stocks of ships increased by 2.6 times from 208.4 mt in 1980 to 542.9 mt in 2019. the top 2 regional contributors, asia and latin america & the caribbean, were together responsible for about half of the total increase. a transition from oil tankers to container ships and bulk carriers reduced the in-use steel stock due to the lower steel intensity of the latter. the rapid increase of ship stocks after year 1980 led to significant increase of steel scrap in the 2010 s, reaching 10.1 mt/year in 2019. our projections showed that the steel from scrapped ships worldwide will increase by around 4-fold to 40.4�47.3 mt/year by 2050, which imposed a great challenge on coordination of recycling ship-related steel and require long-term planning on ship recycling facility development. by identifying the stocks and flows of ships and related steel, this study provides insights for the steel waste and recycling management of end-of-life ships worldwide. 30. title: the impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling authors: xin zhao, marshall a. wise, stephanie t. waldhoff, g. page kyle, ... katherine v. calvin abstract: researchers explore future economic and climate scenarios using global economic and integrated assessment models to understand long-term interactions between human development and global environmental changes. however, differences in trade modeling approaches are an important source of uncertainty in these types of assessments, particularly for regional projections. in this study, we modified the global change analysis model (gcam) to include a novel logit-based armington trade structure, to examine two approaches to modeling trade: (1) an approach that represents segmented regional markets (srm), and (2) an approach that represents integrated world markets (iwm). our results demonstrate that assuming iwm, i.e., homogeneous product modeling and neglecting economic geography, could lead to lower cropland use (i.e., by 115 million hectare#%-.058:;<>fg��ʻʻʩ��wobtm?t2thj�5�ojqj^jo(h=vh=v5�ojqj^jh=vh=vh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(h�n�5�cjojqj^jajh 2e5�cjojqj^jaj#h=vh=v5�cjojqj^jajh=v5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj h$-�5�cjojqj^jajo(#h=vh=v5�cjojqj^jaj;<=��cd�wx�g� � m!b!h$i$�$�$�,�,��gd�psgd)w�gd$?�gdto�gd�l$gd%j,gdu<�gd�"�$a$gdt4��abcdegmn��u��v�hxv�hxvj=h�7�h�7�ojqj^jhih�l$ojqj^jo(hvi�h�l$5�ojqj^jo(h�7�h�7�5�ojqj^jh�l$h�l$5�ojqj^jh�l$5�ojqj^jo(hj�5�ojqjo(hiht4ojqj^jo(h=vhj�ojqj^jo(h=vh=vojqj^jh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jht45�ojqj^jo(hicy5�ojqj^jh=vh=v5�ojqj^jh=vh=vuvwxyz{��fgpq� � � � � 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