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volume 100, issue 2, may 2010
1. title: computer mediated transactions.
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abstract: in this article the author discusses the economic aspects of internet and web applications. the central focus of the article is on computer assisted economic transactions that allow for new forms of contracts, data analysis and extraction, controlled experimentation and a greater degree of personalization and customization. other factors related to these elements are examined including internet advertising, greater business communication capabilities and the streamlined creation of business documents.
2. title: okun's law and productivity innovations.
authors: gordon, robert j
abstract: in this article the author relates okun's law to innovations in productivity. okun's law, devised by economist arthur okun, states that there is an empirically observed relationship between unemployment to losses in the production capabilities of a country. under okun's law a one point increase in unemployment is associated with two points of negative growth of gross domestic product. a number of factors are addressed including productivity changes, the decline in real wages and labor union power, and the trend toward treating employees as disposable commodities.
3. title: indicators for dating business cycles: cross-history selection and comparisons.
authors: stock, james h; watson, mark w.
abstract: in this article the authors examine the process of dating business cycles. the central focus of the article is on the process of aggregating real economic activity information related to a business cycle and dating it using 270 monthly economic indicators. a number of topics are addressed including the dating and aggregating processes employed by the u.s. national bureau of economic research and its business cycle dating committee and a similar committee employed by center for economic and policy research.
4. title: real-time macroeconomic monitoring: real activity, inflation, and interactions.
authors: aruoba, s. boraan; diebold, francis x.
abstract: in this article, the authors discuss the status and future in real-time assessment of macroeconomic activity. the authors are concerned with a concept that they call "nowcasting" as it is opposed to "forecasting." nowcasting uses contemporaneous data to make an economic forecast. the authors explain how economic agents need accurate and timely estimates of macroeconomic activity to make real decisions in real time. the authors also explain how a systematic and statistically optimal measurement approach was devised to meet the demands of economic agents.
5. title: the business cycle in a changing economy: conceptualization, measurement, dating.
authors: sinai, allen.
abstract: this article explains that modern business cycle analysis began nearly 80 years ago by the national bureau of economic research and was developed into an approach that is referred to as burns and mitchell. the same framework is used to analyze business cycles today, but it is based on the economy of a past era, an economy that is greatly different from today's. the article examines whether the business cycle has changed or whether the economy has changed and whether the ways that the business cycle is conceptualized and measured should be changed.
6. title: some fiscal calculus.
authors: uhlig, harald.
abstract: the article addresses questions regarding the extent to which fiscal policy affects practical economic outcomes, particularly focusing on the size of "multipliers" on government spending and tax reduction plans. the author presents a series of calculus equations where the fiscal multipliers of these features are treated in a neoclassical growth model with endogenous labor and fiscal policy features. the author asserts that short run multipliers are less effective than frequently claimed. a case example mirroring the stimulus spending program used by the u.s. in 2009 is provided.
7. title: fiscal policy in a model with financial frictions.
authors: fern�ndez-villaverde, jes�s.
abstract: the article presents an in-depth examination into the statistical effects of fiscal policy within an environment of financial friction. a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is constructed, calibrated to the characteristics of the u.s. economy in the late 2000s in order to compute the output of multiple fiscal shocks. conclusions are offered regarding the model's results, including the effectiveness of government expenditures towards reducing taxation and stimulating economic output, the fisher effect in the movement of real wealth, and the endogenous evolution of finance premiums after each disruption.
8. title: debt consolidation and fiscal stabilization of deep recessions.
authors: corsetti, giancarlo; kuester, keith; meier, andr; m�ller, gernot j.
abstract: the article presents econometric research concerning the behavior of debt consolidation and fiscal stabilization during deep recessions, such as those seen in the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. a new keynesian model is presented charting the macroeconomic transmission of government spending and their "reversals." particular attention within the model is given to the consumption dynamics of the spending reversal, the zero lower bound in the monetary policy decision process, and fiscal multipliers.
9. title: asset fire sales and credit easing.
authors: shleifer, andrei; vishny, robert w.
abstract: the article presents examination into the economic models surrounding asset fire sales and credit easing in u.s. banking and securitization practices in the u.s. under the policies of the federal reserve. multiple formulas are presented illustrating the dynamics surrounding the underlying dynamics of the policy for financial intervention. conclusions are offered evaluating the efficacy of the policy, noting its reduction of wasted government spending, its direct stimulation of credit markets, and its contributions to propping up weakened but safe institutions.
10. title: the great recession: lessons from microeconomic data.
authors: mian, atif; sufi, amir.
abstract: the article presents an overview of the ways that a microeconomic analysis of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 can provide clues to understanding the origins of the crisis, the link between credit and asset prices, the relationship between asset prices and the global economy, the role that household leverage has played in the crisis, and the consequences of the crisis. a discussion of the ways that microeconomic data and techniques can be used to answer traditional macroeconomic questions is presented.
11. title: loan syndication and credit cycles.
authors: ivashina, victoria; scharfstein, david.
abstract: the article reports on research which was conducted to investigate cyclicality in the credit supply of the banking industry and to investigate whether loan syndication increases the cyclicality of the credit supply. researchers found that demand for bank loan participation, which comes from shocks to bank capital or changes in investor sentiment, impacts changes in lead share and increases the cyclicality of credit. they also determined that there are links between securities markets and loan syndication and that additional research is needed on the relationship between loan syndication and the cyclicality of the credit supply.
12. title: growth, size, and openness: a quantitative approach.
authors: ramondo, natalia; rodr�guez-clare, andr�s.
abstract: the article reports on research which was conducted to investigate the substantial economic gains that countries get from being open to international trade, multinational production and the diffusion of ideas. in doing their research, researchers considered the semi-endogenous growth model developed by charles i. jones, samuel s. kortum and jonathan eaton. researchers found that countries did receive substantial gains from being open to international trade and multinational production and found that the gains were increased when the countries were willing to adopt and accept foreign ideas.
13. title: capital flows and macroeconomic performance: lessons from the golden era of international finance.
authors: ohanian, lee e; wright, mark l. j.
abstract: the article focuses on the international flow of capital between 1880 to 1913, the "golden era" of finance, as well as during the interwar period of 1918 to 1938. using an open-economy growth model, the authors use neoclassical growth theories to analyze variables including consumption, nonmarket time, domestic capital, and productivity. the relationship between bond returns and countries whose economies rely on either imports or exports is explored. economic data for countries including the u.s., finland, great britain, and austria is considered.
14. title: the marginal product of capital, capital flows, and convergence.
authors: chatterjee, sirsha; naknoi, kanda.
abstract: the article examines the flow of capital and the impact it has on economic growth. the authors created an economic model that allowed them to quantify the impact on economic growth of inflows of capital. a number of topics are addressed including the fact that fluctuations in the price of investment goods allows developed and developing countries to profit from capital inflows, the reduced nature of these benefits, and the volatility in the price of investment goods and the measurement of capital flow.
15. title: the quantitative role of capital goods imports in us growth.
authors: cavallo, michele; landry, anthony.
abstract: in this article the authors discuss the finding that technological improvements in u.s. capital goods are the cause of a significant portion of output growth. this increase in the output growth rate has been achieved through the raising of the efficiency of software and equipment. the investment expenditure in equipment and software that has been assigned capital goods imports is significant. the article examines capital goods imports and, utilizing a simple growth accounting exercise, measures the role they play in raising u.s. output per hour.
16. title: political limits to globalization.
authors: acemoglu, daron; yared, pierre.
abstract: in this paper the authors discusses aspects of globalization. they claim that globalization depends on the political decisions of nation states and has political limits related to militarism and nationalism. these two factors are measured by military spending which has a negative impact on international markets. a number of conclusions are drawn including the fact that openness to trade is a political choice, that militarization has a negative impact on trade, and that changes in the domestic politics of a country could put a limit on globalization.
17. title: making room for china in the world economy.
authors: rodrik, dani.
abstract: in this article the author discusses china's place in the world economy. he notes that critics of chinese economic policy claim that the chinese currency, the renminbi, is seriously under-valued and accounts for china's global trade surplus. it is suggested that china replace foreign demand for its goods with domestic markets as its way of maintaining economic growth. a number of topics are addressed including appreciation of the renminbi, the enhancement of profitability of trade goods, and china's industrial policy.
18. title: what parts of globalization matter for catch-up growth?
authors: romer, paul m.
abstract: in this article, the author asserts that the flow of ideas is the most important part of globalization for reducing poverty and contributing to catch-up growth and he argues that models used to support increases in the trading of goods and services does more harm than good. the article explores the interaction between the ideas that can help to reduce poverty and improve the quality of life and various local systems of rules. the author suggests that provisional mechanisms that are more compatible with local rules could help to introduce new ideas about public health to poor countries.
19. title: how do you measure a �technological revolution�?
authors: corrado, carol a; hulten, charles r.
abstract: this article discusses the economic analysis of the changes caused by the technological innovations that society is experiencing and describes the economic metrics that are available to measure the size and impact of these changes. the article notes that the received theory is the best tool for measuring the the impact of the technological revolution. the article presents information about the received theory and how its reliance on production data needs to adjusted to reflect the u.s. move away from manufacturing things.
20. title: new approaches to surveying organizations.
authors: bloom, nicholas; van reenen, john.
abstract: the article presents discussion reviewing several econometric methods of evaluating business firm organization and efficacy, offering corrections and new approaches to correct common weaknesses in the existing models. subjects addressed include methodologies to minimize survey biases such as those at the interviewer, respondent and interview levels. additional commentary is offered providing advice on evaluating existing bias which could not be reduced or avoided. conclusions are provided identifying the authors' suggestions as a hybrid research method between small-scale case study and large-sample data analysis.
21. title: artistic originals as a capital asset.
authors: soloveichik, rachel.
abstract: the article presents an examination into the possible econometric treatment of artistic originals within the u.s. economic system, focusing on their role as a capital asset. two divergent models are mentioned, one in which the cost of producing original artwork is an expense or another as a capital investment. further investigation is offered exploring the calculations involved in the capital asset paradigm, including consideration of nominal production, price indexes and depreciation schedules. concluding remarks are mentioned reflecting on the impact of such calculations on the nation's gross domestic product and other capital measures.
22. title: institutions, factor prices, and taxation: virtues of strong states?
authors: acemoglu, daron.
abstract: the article presents an examination into the economic dynamics surrounding property rights protection and access to public goods in states of varying levels of stability. introductory details are given noting the tendency or power holders and elites in weaker states to use business and government institutions to secure and maintain power through taxation and other fiscal controls. it is suggested that as states increase in stability they will use more diverse controls in more efficient means. econometric models are then provided examining the legitimacy of this view.
23. title: coping with political instability: micro evidence from kenya's 2007 election crisis.
authors: dupas, pascaline; robinson, jonathan.
abstract: the article presents an examination into the effects of political instability on the economic growth of nations. introductory details are given highlighting theoretical economic views on the detrimental aspects of political instability on economic capital accumulation and investment. specific examples of these scenarios are given through analysis of the microeconomic conditions of kenya during its 2007 disputed presidential election crisis. figures charting the income, expenditures, food consumption of market vendors, shopkeepers and sex workers are including.
24. title: do traditional institutions constrain female entrepreneurship? a field experiment on business training in india.
authors: field, erica; jayachandran, seema; pande, rohini.
abstract: the article presents an exploration into the limitations and constraints present in traditional business cultures towards women entrepreneurship. questions are raised asking whether the structure of traditional institutions inherently pose obstacles for would-be businesswomen, focusing on whether inadequate access, limited demand, or social norms primarily lead to fewer women entrepreneurs. field research is conducted in business training programs in india, comparing several features of the applicants and their skills. concluding comments are offered, noting positive effects of business education on the prospective incomes of businesswomen.
25. title: creating property rights: land banks in ghana.
authors: aryeetey, ernest; udry, christopher.
abstract: the article presents an overview of a land tenure problem in ghana which exists as a result of insecure property rights related to land and discusses the impact the insecure property rights have on agriculture and the organization of rural economic activity in the country. a discussion of the impact that the development of land banks, formal institutions which take deposits of land from landowners and lease land to commercial farmers and developers, would have on the problem of insecure property rights in ghana, is presented.
26. title: cultural and institutional bifurcation: china and europe compared.
authors: greif, avner; tabellini, guido.
abstract: the article reports on research which was conducted to determine whether culture and institutions interacted in generating different evolutionary trajectories of societal organizations in pre-modern china and europe and to determine whether contemporary attitudes, institutions and behavior in china and europe reflect pre-modern trajectories. researchers found that pre-modern china and europe evolved along distinct trajectories and that indigenous culture and institutions in both countries interacted to impact the countries as a whole and their development.
27. title: equilibrium fictions: a cognitive approach to societal rigidity.
authors: hoff, karla; stiglitz, joseph e.
abstract: the article presents an overview of the roles that personal beliefs, biases and ideologies and human information processing play in social rigidity, social psychology, the development of social change and the creation of economic change. a discussion of the impact that social beliefs and social psychology had in several social events, including the acceptance of slavery in north america, the expulsion of australian aborigines and the east india company's collection of revenue from indian owned land in india, which contributed to a famine, is presented.
28. title: religious conversion in colonial africa.
authors: nunn, nathan.
abstract: the article considers the european missionary movement during the colonial period of africa in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries and its impact on african culture, especially religion. the author creates an economic model using historic information locating the sites of missions and the 2005 afrobarometer survey of information from 17 sub-saharan countries. other subjects considered include the slave trade, the colonial railroad routes, agricultural areas, and the success of evangelical strategies of missionaries such as the issuance of bibles, the creation of schools, and the establishment of hospitals.
29. title: the public and private sectors in the process of innovation: theory and evidence from the mouse genetics revolution.
authors: aghion, philippe; dewatripont, mathias; kolev, julian; murray, fiona; stern, scott.
abstract: in this article the authors present a model evaluating comparative studies of public and private scientific discovery and how they respond to breakthroughs in research. the authors supply empirical research by analysis of a scientific development of the 1980s: an advance that allowed researcher to create genetically engineered mice. the central focus of the article is experimentation at the university of utah that allowed scientists to turn off a specific gene in a mouse, and research conducted by the e. i. du pont de nemours and company that enabled researchers to turn on genetic material.
30. title: network effects in biology r&d.
authors: henkel, joachim; maurer, stephen m.
abstract: the article discusses network effects and research and development in biology and biotechnology. the network effect is defined as the creation of value in a good or service based on the number of people using it. the article concentrates on network effects and research into stem cells. the authors find that academic and commercial research into biology and biotechnology is significantly influenced by the network effect. the authors extend their research to include the network effects on a variety of subjects including software and electronics.
31. title: openness, open source, and the veil of ignorance.
authors: scotchmer, suzanne.
abstract: the article presents an overview of open-source collaborations, which were developed in the 1990s as a new way to organize software development and in which members of the collaboration disclose their software codes so that others can attempt to improve them. a discussion of the profits and social benefits that companies find with open-source collaborations, and of the role that general public licenses and proprietary licenses play in the collaborations, is presented. the decision making process which is used to determine which licensing process should be used in open-source collaborations is examined.
32. title: economywide implications from us bioenergy expansion.
authors: gehlhar, mark; somwaru, agapi; dixon, peter b; rimmer, maureen t; winston, ashley r.
abstract: in this article, the authors assess the long term economic impacts on united states household consumption and the gross domestic product from meeting the renewable fuels standard. the article notes that the renewable fuels standard (rfs) was set by the 2007 passage of the energy independence and security act (eisa). the article also notes that there has been debate about the effect of proposed tax credits for biofuel developers. some argue that tax credits will cost taxpayers billions of dollars each year, while others say that the benefits of biofuels over crude oil will outweigh the costs of tax credits.
33. title: ethanol policy effects on us natural gas prices and quantities.
authors: whistance, jarrett; thompson, wyatt w; meyer, seth d.
abstract: in this article, the authors analyze the direct effects on the united states natural gas market of u.s. biofuel policies, especially tax credits, the ethanol tariff, and mandates. the article notes that increased ethanol production will lead to more demand for corn and to an increase in the allocation of land to producing corn. it is speculated that both of these occurrences will lead to an increase in the use of natural gas to fuel ethanol plants or indirectly through the production of fertilizers and other chemicals used in growing corn. the article presents information on a study of the magnitude of the effects on natural gas prices.
34. title: are biofuels the culprit? opec, food, and fuel.
authors: hochman, gal; rajagopal, deepak; zilberman, david.
abstract: in this article the authors examine the contribution of energy and biofuels to the increase in food prices during the period 2003-2008. biofuels are discussed because they require significant allocation of land to grow energy crops used to create biomass fuels, reducing food crops and feed for animals, thus adding to a rise in food prices. in addition the organization of petroleum exporting countries (opec) has an impact on global energy prices and fuel markets and is a significant factor in the increase cost of food.
35. title: the health returns of education policies from preschool to high school and beyond.
authors: johnson, rucker c.
abstract: in this article the author examines a number of u.s. education policies and their impact on public health and the upward mobility of students in preschool and from kindergarten through 12th grade. a number of conclusions are drawn including the fact that education policy has a significant role to play in future health, the impact that residential racial segregation has on the distribution of educational resources, and the proposition that education policy may provide the means to improve the health of the population.
36. title: family health, children's own health, and test score gaps.
authors: andrews, rodney j; logan, trevon d.
abstract: the article presents an examination into the convergence of educational and health inequalities in school children, noting their mutual contribution to future educational progress or deficiencies. introductory details are given noting statistics in u.s. school children, highlighting correlations between educational outcomes, early learning opportunities, and various health circumstances. results of the article's analysis suggest that health disparities are a factor in the racial differences in educational performance in childhood.
37. title: time preference, noncognitive skills and well being across the life course: do noncognitive skills encourage healthy behavior?
authors: chiteji, ngina.
abstract: the article examines the relations between the health behaviors of the u.s. population and the non-cognitive skills, or social and emotive factors, possessed by individuals. the paper is designed to test the connection between these socio-emotional elements and the choices that individuals make in their medical care. a number of issues are addressed including the cost of medical care and how it informs health care behavior, the importance of economic well being to health, and the impact of economics on health care.
38. title: adult child migration and the health of elderly parents left behind in mexico.
authors: antman, francisca m.
abstract: this article discusses the effect of adult mexican child migration to the united states on the health of elderly parents left behind in mexico. the article notes that research on this topic is important in light of the fact that mexico has a rapidly aging population. the article also notes that conventional thought would indicate that the flow of remittances from the immigrant children would improve the lives of remaining parents. the author reports that her research on this topic indicates that such an elderly parent left in mexico will be in poor physical and mental health.
39. title: investment in general human capital and turnover intention.
authors: manchester, colleen flaherty.
abstract: in this article, the author examines the effect of employer sponsored investment in human capital through tuition reimbursement on employee turnover. the article examines two possible situations: productivity at a firm relative to other employers could be enhanced in human capital acquired through course work designed to increase productivity; and, employees could be bound to the firm through formal restrictions on service length following reimbursement that would require repayment to the firm if violated.
40. title: applicant screening and performance-related outcomes.
authors: huang, fali; cappelli, peter.
abstract: in this article the authors examine methods for screening job applicants in order to find those workers who possess a strong work ethic. the information was compiled from data from a variety of u.s. employers. a number of conclusions are arrived at including the greater the work ethic the less employee monitoring required, and the work ethic related to a number of factors including the use of teams in the workplace, high employee productivity, and lower rates in the involuntary turnover of employees.
41. title: stop the clock policies and career success in academia.
authors: manchester, colleen flaherty; leslie, lisa m; kramer, amit.
abstract: the article presents an examination into the stop the clock (stc) policies in universities and colleges, initially instituted in the 1970s to confront gender inequalities in the tenure-track institutions of women professors. details are given introducing the logistics of the policy and its efforts to create a more equal environment for women. an empirical survey is then provided charting the career features of women who have utilized the policy and evaluating its efficacy. conclusions are offered suggesting little direct correlation between women professor success and utilization of the policy.
42. title: low skilled immigration and work-fertility tradeoffs among high skilled us natives.
authors: furtado, delia; hock, heinrich.
abstract: in this article, the authors argue that a weakening of the correlation between fertility and female labor force participation (flfp) in the past 50 years in the united states can be explained by the steady flow of low skilled immigration, which increased the affordability of child rearing for high skilled u.s. natives. the article notes that this study used a statistical model that examined variations in u.s. metropolitan areas over time to assess the degree to which low skilled mostly hispanic immigrants were related to the negative correlation between fertility and flfp.
43. title: the market for college graduates and the worldwide boom in higher education of women.
authors: becker, gary s; hubbard, william h. j; murphy, kevin m.
abstract: the article presents an examination into the impact of the global increase of women participating in higher education since the 1970s. econometric analysis is offered overviewing the market conditions for college graduates in 1970 and 2010, weighing the gross domestic products of several nations with the difference in numbers of women and men graduates. further trends are illustrated concerning the distribution of noncognitive abilities among women and men and the causes behind the uneven impact of higher education on women than on men in similar circumstances.
44. title: the education-health gradient.
authors: conti, gabriella; heckman, james; urzua, sergio.
abstract: the article presents an examination into the efforts to reduce health disparities in several socioeconomic demographics in the united states through health education initiatives. details are given investigating the empirical correlations between usage of health services and facilities and the level of health education in patients. a statistical schooling choice model is presented where maximum positive health outcomes are mapped. analysis is presented highlighting individual traits which most influenced the outcomes in adult health.
45. title: inputs and impacts in charter schools: kipp lynn.
authors: angrist, joshua d; dynarski, susan m; kane, thomas j; pathak, parag a; walters, christopher r.
abstract: the article presents a quasi-experimental evaluation of the knowledge is power program (kipp) academy lynn of lynn, massachusetts and its efficacy in positively addressing racial achievement gaps and economic disparities. introductory comments are given outlining the characteristics of the kipp program, noting both the claims of its supporters and the concerns of its critics regarding the exclusively school-centered social advocacy program. statistical analysis is then given for the school's performance, focusing on the massachusetts comprehensive assessment system (mcas) test.
46. title: human capital and imperfectly informed financial markets.
authors: ehrlich, isaac; shin, jong kook.
abstract: the article presents an econometric model of endogenous information acquisition for use within a financial economic system featuring human capital and imperfectly informed markets. the inclusion of this model is added to ongoing research investigating the role of private information on portfolio choice. the basic model is presented and illustrated. the implications of the model upon several variables are explained including asset demand at the micro- and macroeconomic levels and the "home bias" at the market level. empirical tests for the model are also provided.
47. title: using performance on the job to inform teacher tenure decisions.
authors: goldhaber, dan; hansen, michael.
abstract: the article reports on research which was conducted to investigate the potential of using value added model estimates of performance appraisal of teachers as the primary criteria for rewarding teachers with tenure. researchers investigated selected findings from a larger study which examined the stability of value added model estimates and their value in predicting student academic achievement. they found that value added model measures of teacher effectiveness were stable enough that early career estimates of teacher effectiveness predicted student achievement for at least three years. they concluded that value added model estimates could be used as a factor in making personnel decisions such as tenure...
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