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volume 112, issue 5, may 2022
1. title: supply and demand in disaggregated keynesian economies with an application to the covid-19 crisis
authors: david baqaee and emmanuel farhi
abstract: we study supply and demand shocks in a disaggregated model with multiple sectors, multiple factors, input-output linkages, downward nominal wage rigidities, credit-constraints, and a zero lower bound. we use the model to understand how the covid-19 crisis, an omnibus supply and demand shock, affects output, unemployment, and inflation, and leads to the coexistence of tight and slack labor markets. we show that negative sectoral supply shocks are stagflationary, whereas negative demand shocks are deflationary, even though both can cause keynesian unemployment. furthermore, complementarities in production amplify keynesian spillovers from supply shocks but mitigate them for demand shocks. this means that complementarities reduce the effectiveness of aggregate demand stimulus. in a stylized quantitative model of the united states, we find supply and demand shocks each explain about one-half of the reduction in real gdp from february to may 2020. although there was as much as 6 percent keynesian unemployment, this was concentrated in certain markets. hence, aggregate demand stimulus is one quarter as effective as in a typical recession where all labor markets are slack.
2. title: macroeconomic implications of covid-19: can negative supply shocks cause demand shortages?
authors: veronica guerrieri, guido lorenzoni, ludwig straub and iv�n werning
abstract: motivated by the effects of the covid-19 pandemic, we present a theory of keynesian supply shocks: shocks that reduce potential output in a sector of the economy, but that, by reducing demand in other sectors, ultimately push aggregate activity below potential. a keynesian supply shock is more likely when the elasticity of substitution between sectors is relatively low, the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is relatively high, and markets are incomplete. fiscal policy can display a smaller multiplier, but the insurance benefit of fiscal transfers can be enhanced. firm exits and job destruction can amplify and propagate the shock.
3. title: effective demand failures and the limits of monetary stabilization policy
authors: michael woodford
abstract: the challenge for stabilization policy presented by the covid-19 pandemic stems above all from disruption of the circular flow of payments, resulting in a failure of what keynes (1936) calls "effective demand." as a consequence, economic activity in many sectors can be inefficiently low, and interest-rate policy cannot eliminate the distortions�not because of a limit on the extent to which interest rates can be reduced, but because interest-rate reductions fail to stimulate demand of the right sorts. fiscal transfers are instead well suited to addressing the fundamental problem, and can under certain circumstances achieve a first-best allocation of resources.
4. title: bargaining over contingent contracts under incomplete information
authors: geoffroy de clippel, jack fanning and kareen rozen
abstract: we study bargaining over contingent contracts in problems where private information becomes public or verifiable when the time comes to implement the agreement. we suggest a simple, two-stage game that incorporates important aspects of bargaining. we characterize equilibria in which parties always reach agreement, and study their limits as bargaining frictions vanish. under mild regularity conditions, we show all interim-efficient limits belong to myerson's (1984) axiomatic solution. furthermore, all limits must be interim efficient if equilibrium beliefs satisfy no-signaling-what-you-don't-know. results extend to other bargaining protocols.
5. title: rebel on the canal: disrupted trade access and social conflict in china, 1650�1911
authors: yiming cao and shuo chen
abstract: this paper examines the effects of the abandonment of china's grand canal�the world's largest and oldest artificial waterway�which served as a disruption to regional trade access. using an original dataset covering 575 counties over 262 years, we show that the canal's abandonment contributed to the social turmoil that engulfed north china in the nineteenth century. counties along the canal experienced an additional 117 percent increase in rebelliousness after the canal's closure relative to their non-canal counterparts. our findings highlight the important role that continued access to trade routes plays in reducing conflict.
6. title: bargaining over a divisible good in the market for lemons
authors: dino gerardi, lucas maestri and ignacio monz�n
abstract: we study bargaining with divisibility and interdependent values. a buyer and a seller trade a divisible good. the seller is privately informed about its quality, which can be high or low. gains from trade are positive and decreasing in quantity. the buyer makes offers over time. divisibility introduces a new channel of competition between the buyer's present and future selves. the buyer's temptation to split the purchases of the high-quality good is detrimental to him. as bargaining frictions vanish and the good becomes arbitrarily divisible, the high-quality good is traded smoothly over time and the buyer's payoff shrinks to zero.
7. title: the demand for insurance and rationale for a mandate: evidence from workers' compensation insurance
authors: marika cabral, can cui and michael dworsky
abstract: workers' compensation insurance, which provides no-fault coverage for work-related injuries, is mandatory in nearly all states. we use administrative data from a unique market without a coverage mandate to estimate the demand for workers' compensation insurance, leveraging regulatory premium updates for identification. we find that a 1 percent increase in premiums leads to approximately a 0.3 percent decline in coverage. drawing upon these estimates and data on costs, we examine potential justifications for government intervention to increase coverage. this analysis suggests that several forms of market failure�such as adverse selection, market power, and externalities�may not justify a mandate in this setting.
8. title: signaling and employer learning with instruments
authors: gaurab aryal, manudeep bhuller and fabian lange
abstract: this paper considers the use of instruments to identify and estimate private and social returns to education within a model of employer learning. what an instrument identifies depends on whether it is hidden from, or transparent (i.e., observed) to, the employers. a hidden instrument identifies private returns to education, and a transparent instrument identifies social returns to education. we use variation in compulsory schooling laws across noncentral and central municipalities in norway to, respectively, construct hidden and transparent instruments. we estimate a private return of 7.9 percent, of which 70 percent is due to increased productivity and the remaining 30 percent is due to signaling.
9. title: multidimensional auctions of contracts: an empirical analysis
authors: yunmi kong, isabelle perrigne and quang vuong
abstract: in this paper, we conduct a structural analysis of multi-attribute auctions of contracts with a general allocation rule when private information is multidimensional. upon modeling bidders' contract value that accounts for their endogenous ex post actions, we non-parametrically identify bidders' private information from their bids and estimate their joint distribution. analyzing cash-royalty auctions of louisiana oil leases, we find government revenue worse and development rates no better than in a cash auction with a fixed royalty in view of adverse selection and moral hazard. our findings revise conventional wisdom on the optimality of multi-attribute auctions.
10. title: how do national firms respond to local cost shocks?
authors: r. andrew butters, daniel w. sacks and boyoung seo
abstract: recent research shows prices are insensitive to local demand conditions because national chains charge geographically uniform prices. we examine the price response to local cost shocks, including 68 excise tax changes, 76 sales tax changes, and other geographically based cost differences, using data on 35,151 retail stores in 96 multi-state chains. we find local cost shocks are passed through to local prices, with no spillovers to unaffected stores in otherwise affected chains, and at similar rates for national and local chains. firms adjust local prices according to local cost changes, suggesting retailers respond asymmetrically to local cost and demand shocks.
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