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��ࡱ�>�� u �r�?objbj�n�n2��a��a1f ��""��8�le�fpl��o�o�o�o�o�o�o$�q�ht<�o-��o��4pyyy��oy��oyyy�� ^<��sy�op0fpy�tc^�tyy�0�t�=l\��y��o�o��fp��t��"qs: risk analysis volume 42, issue 12, december 2022 1. title: decision-first modeling should guide decision making for emerging risks authors: kara morgan, zachary a. collier, elisabeth gilmore, ketra schmitt abstract: an emerging risk is characterized by scant published data, rapidly changing information, and an absence of existing models that can be directly used for prediction. analysis may be further complicated by quickly evolving decision-maker priorities and the potential need to make decisions quickly as new information comes available. to provide a forum to discuss these challenges, a virtual conference, �decision making for emerging risks,� was held on june 22�23, 2021, sponsored jointly by the decision analysis society of the institute for operations research and the management sciences and the decision analysis and risk specialty group in the society for risk analysis. speakers reflected on the work to support decision-makers related to the covid-19 pandemic as well as experiences in emerging risks across domains from cybersecurity, infrastructure, transportation, energy, food safety, national security, and climate change. here, we distill the key findings to propose a set of best practice principles for a �decision-first� approach for emerging risks. these discussions underscore the importance of scoping the decision context and the shared responsibility for the development and implementation of the analysis between the analyst and the decision-maker when the context can evolve rapidly. emerging risks may also favor simpler analytical approaches that increase transparency, ease of explanation, and ability to conduct new analyses quickly. continued dialogue by the decision and risk analysis communities on the use and development of models for emerging risks will enhance the credibility and usefulness of these approaches. 2. title: information effects on lay tradeoffs between national regulatory costs and benefits authors: branden b. johnson, adam m. finkel abstract: a novel stated-preference �macro-risk� approach introduced to estimate the life-prolonging benefits of proposed environmental, health, and safety regulations may answer questions unasked or wrongly answered by conventional revealed-preference (e.g., �wage premiums� for high occupational risks) and stated-preference methods (e.g., willingness to pay for tiny reductions in one's own premature death risk). this new approach asks laypeople to appraise directly their preferred tradeoffs between national regulatory costs and lives prolonged nationwide (regulatory benefits). however, this method may suffer from incomplete lay understanding of national-scale consequences (e.g., billions of dollars in regulatory costs; hundreds of lives prolonged) or tradeoffs (e.g., what are lives prolonged worth?). here we (1) tested effects of numerical contextual examples to ground each hypothetical regulatory tradeoff, and (2) explored why some people implicitly offer �implausible� values (< $10,000 or > $1 billion) for the social benefit of prolonging one life. in study 1 (n = 356), after testing their separate effects, we combined three contextual-information aids: (1) comparing hypothetical regulatory costs and benefits to real-life higher and lower values; (2) reframing large numbers into smaller, more familiar terms; and (3) framing regulatory costs as having diffuse versus concentrated impacts. information increased social benefits values on average (from $4.5 million to $13.8 million). study 2 (n = 402) found that the most common explanations for �implausible� values included inattention, strong attitudes about regulation, and problems translating values into responses. we discuss implications for this novel stated-preferences method, and for comparing it to micro-risk methods. 3. title: risk-layering and optimal insurance uptake under ambiguity: with an application to farmers exposed to drought risk in austria authors: corina birghila, georg ch. pflug, stefan hochrainer-stigler abstract: many risks we face today will very likely not stay the same over time. for example, it is expected that climate change will alter future risks of natural disaster events considerably and, as a consequence, current risk management and governance strategies may not be effective anymore. large ambiguities arise if future climate change impacts should be taken into account for analyzing risk management options today. risk insurance, while albeit only one of many risk management actions possible, plays an important role in current societies for dealing with extremes. a natural starting point for our analysis is therefore the question of how ambiguity may be incorporated in a world with changing risks. to shed light on this question, we study how ambiguity can affect the uptake of insurance and risk mitigation within a risk-layer approach where each layer is quantified using distortion risk measures that should reflect the risk aversion of a decisionmaker toward extreme losses. importantly, we obtain a closed-form solution for such a problem statement which allows an efficient numerical implementation. we apply this model to a case study of drought risk for austrian farmers and address the question how ambiguity will affect the risk layers of different types of farmers and how subsidies may help to deal with current and future risks. we found that especially for small-scale farmers the consequences of increasing risk and model ambiguity are pronounced and subsidies are especially needed in this case to cover the high-risk layer. 4. title: taxonomies for synthesizing the evidence on communicating numbers in health: goals, format, and structure authors: jessica s. ancker, natalie c. benda, mohit m. sharma, stephen b. johnson, stephanie weiner, brian j. zikmund-fisher abstract: many people, especially those with low numeracy, are known to have difficulty interpreting and applying quantitative information to health decisions. these difficulties have resulted in a rich body of research about better ways to communicate numbers. synthesizing this body of research into evidence-based guidance, however, is complicated by inconsistencies in research terminology and researcher goals. in this article, we introduce three taxonomies intended to systematize terminology in the literature, derived from an ongoing systematic literature review. the first taxonomy provides a systematic nomenclature for the outcome measures assessed in the studies, including perceptions, decisions, and actions. the second taxonomy is a nomenclature for the data formats assessed, including numbers (and different formats for numbers) and graphics. the third taxonomy describes the quantitative concepts being conveyed, from the simplest (a single value at a single point in time) to more complex ones (including a risk-benefit trade-off and a trend over time). finally, we demonstrate how these three taxonomies can be used to resolve ambiguities and apparent contradictions in the literature. 5. title: behavioral biases and heuristics in perceptions of covid-19 risks and prevention decisions authors: w. j. wouter botzen, sem j. duijndam, peter j. robinson, pieter van beukering abstract: this study adds to an emerging literature on the factors associated with individual perceptions of covid-19 risks and decision-making processes related to prevention behaviors. we conducted a survey in the netherlands (n = 3600) in june�july 2020 when the first peak of covid-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths had passed, and lockdown measures had been eased. dutch policies relied heavily on individual prevention behaviors to mitigate a second infection wave. we examine whether biases and heuristics that have been observed in how people perceive and respond to other risks also apply to the newly emergent risks posed by covid-19. the results indicate that people simplify risk using threshold models and that risk perceptions are related with personal experiences with covid-19 and experiences of close others, supporting the availability heuristic. we also observe that prevention behavior is more strongly associated with covid-19 risk perceptions and feelings toward the risk than with local indicators of covid-19 risks, and that prevention behavior is related with herding. support for government lockdown measures is consistent with preferences that may contribute to the not-in-my-term-of-office bias. in addition, we offer insights into the role of trust, worry, and demographic characteristics in shaping perceptions of covid-19 risks and how these factors relate with individual prevention behaviors and support for government prevention measures. we provide several lessons for the design of policies that limit covid-19 risks, including risk communication strategies and appeals to social norms. perhaps more importantly, our analysis allows for learning lessons to mitigate the risks of future pandemics. 6. title: give me liberty or give me covid-19: how social dominance orientation, right-wing authoritarianism, and libertarianism explain americans� reactions to covid-19 authors: yilang peng abstract: while previous research has revealed an ideological divide in americans� perceptions of covid-19, specific ideological components can additionally explain public reactions to the pandemic. with two surveys�one sample of crowdsourced workers (n = 482) and a nationally representative sample of american adults (n = 7449)�this research investigates how multiple ideological facets simultaneously predict individuals� reactions to covid-19. results demonstrate that social dominance orientation and libertarianism are two important ideological sources that predict more dismissal of covid-19 and less support for government measures. right-wing authoritarianism was negatively correlated with covid-19 concern and support for government actions, but suppression effects could exist. the effects of ideological variables were largely consistent when trust in science was considered. this study highlights the role of specific ideological components in contributing to the political divide regarding attitudes toward the covid-19 pandemic beyond the liberal�conservative identification. 7. title: the role of trust and risk perception in current german nuclear waste management authors: roman seidl, cord dr�gem�ller, pius kr�tli, clemens walther abstract: one of the lessons learned in various countries that have to deal with spent nuclear fuel is that finding a proper place and siting a repository for high-level nuclear waste (hlw) cannot be achieved without public consent. after decades of obstruction, germany recently launched a new, participatory, site-selection process for the disposal of hlw in deep geological formations. nonetheless, significant opposition is assumed. therefore, citizens trust in the procedure and the agents involved may be paramount. we conducted an online survey (n h" 5000) in march/april 2020 to test a theoretical model on trust, perceived risks and benefits, and acceptance. we differentiated acceptance as a dependent variable according to distinct phases: the procedure, a possible decision on a disposal location, and the repository facility itself. the results show that trust is mainly important for explaining acceptance of the ongoing procedure and less so for the acceptance of the decision or the repository facility itself. moreover, our investigation of the sample using a cluster analysis reveals characteristic patterns of trust, risk perception, and acceptance by three clusters: a cluster focusing on risk perception, an ambivalent cluster, and an indifferent cluster. trust is lowest in the risk-focused cluster and highest in the ambivalent cluster. 8. title: an integrative agent-based vertical evacuation risk assessment model for near-field tsunami hazards authors: chen chen, alireza mostafizi, haizhong wang, dan cox, cadell chand abstract: this study couples fn-curves with agent-based modeling and simulation (abms) to assess risk for tsunamis with various recurrence intervals . by considering both expected number of casualties and the likelihood of tsunami events, multiple series of simulations and in-depth analyses determine (1) how vertical evacuation structure (ves) placement impacts mortality rate; (2) what the best evacuation strategies ves locations are; and (3) where evacuees are likely to be caught by tsunami waves. the results from utilizing fn-curves to conduct disaggregative analyses based on six tsunami scenarios indicate that choosing one tsunami scenario or averaging the risk of different scenarios may not fully articulate ves impacts due to the �levee effect,� which potentially leads to false positives. findings show that placing vess close to shorelines saves nearby at-risk populations, but also results in two risk increasing phenomena: �exposure to risk� (i.e., evacuees being attracted to high risk roads by a ves when evacuating) and �blind zones� (i.e., locations near a ves where evacuees increase their risk by evacuating to that ves). when limited to one ves, placement near a population's centroid results in the lowest mortality rate. more than one ves may lower mortality rate further if vess are spreading out according to community's topography. in addition to the analysis of tsunamis, the approach of coupling fn-curves with abms can be used by local authorities and engineers to determine tailored hard-adaptive measures and evacuation strategies, which helps to avoid maladaptive actions in different hazardous events. 9. title: modeling the association between socioeconomic features and risk of flood damage: a local-scale case study in sri lanka authors: m. m. g. t. de silva, akiyuki kawasaki abstract: floods cause severe damage to people as well as to properties. the same flood can cause different levels of damage to different households, but investigations into floods tend to be conducted on regional and national scales, thereby missing these local variations. it is therefore necessary to understand individual experiences of flood damage to implement effective flood management strategies on a local scale. the main objectives of this study were to develop a model that represents the relationship between socioeconomic conditions and flood damage at a local scale, and to understand the socioeconomic factors most closely tied to flood damage. the analysis is novel in that it considers not only the impact of flood characteristics, but also the impact of social, economic, and geographic factors on flood damage. this analysis derives from a quantitative modeling approach based on community responses, with the responses obtained through questionnaire surveys that consider four consecutive floods of differing severity. path analysis was used to develop a model to represent the relationships between these factors. a randomly selected sample of 150 data points was used for model development, and nine random samples of 150 data points were used to validate the model. results suggest that poor households, located in vulnerable, low-lying areas near rivers, suffer the most from being exposed to frequent, severe floods. further, the results show that the socioeconomic factors with the most significant bearing on flood damage are per capita income and geographic location of the household. the results can be represented as a cycle, showing that social, economic, geographic, and flood characteristics are interrelated in ways that influence flood damage. this empirical analysis highlights a need for local-scale flood damage assessments, as offered in this article but seldom seen in other relevant literature. our assessment was achieved by analyzing the impact of socioeconomic and geographic conditions and considering the relationship between flood characteristics and flood damage. 10. title: us tropical cyclone flood risk: storm surge versus freshwater authors: gina tonn, jeffrey czajkowski abstract: despite persistent record-breaking flood losses from tropical cyclones (tcs), the united states continues to be inadequately prepared for tc flood events, with the deficiency in residential flood insurance being a prime representation of this. one way to address this is through a better quantification of tc flood risk including variations associated with freshwater versus storm surge flood hazard and damage. we analyze actual residential flood claim data from the national flood insurance program (nfip) for the full set of all 28 significant us landfalling tc-related flood events from 2001 to 2014 which we split by storm surge and freshwater. we illustrate key differences between the numbers of claims, paid claim amounts, and damage for freshwater and surge claims, as well as evaluate differences associated with flood zone, state, tc event, and flood depth. despite the typical focus on surge tc flooding, freshwater flooding accounts for over 60% of tc paid claim and damage amounts. surge flooding often occurs outside of high-velocity flood zones, which is not reflected in the nfip premiums. statistical analysis indicates that depth-damage ratios vary significantly by surge versus freshwater and by geography. state-level analysis shows that land-use policies and building codes likely affect differences in damage along with storm characteristics and geography. the findings highlight the need to mitigate and manage both freshwater and surge tc flood risk and for more individualized flood insurance premiums less tied to flood zone. it appears that the latter need may be addressed by the federal emergency management agency (fema)�s risk rating 2.0. 11. title: integrated approach for spatial flood susceptibility assessment in bhagirathi sub-basin, india using entropy information theory and geospatial technology authors: sufia rehman, mohd. sayeed ul hasan, abhishek kumar rai, md. hibjur rahaman, ram avtar, haroon sajjad abstract: globally, floods as dynamic hydraulic hazard have caused widespread damages to both socioeconomic conditions and environment at various scales. managing flood and management of water resource is a global challenge under the changing climatic condition. this study assessed flood susceptibility in the bhagirathi sub-basin, india using entropy information theory and geospatial technology. twelve flood susceptibility parameters such as land use/land cover, normalized difference vegetation index (ndvi), slope, elevation, geology, geomorphology, normalized difference water index (ndwi), soil, drainage density, average rainfall, maximum temperature, and humidity during monsoon season were utilized to examine flood susceptibility. receiver operating characteristics (roc) curve and leave-one-out cross-validation (loocv) techniques were carried out to validate flood susceptibility map. kappa statistics was also used to check the reliability of the flood susceptibility model. findings of the study revealed that nearly 45% area of the sub-basin was highly susceptible to flood followed by moderate (29.3%), very high (19%), low (6.9%), and very low (0.2%). these findings also revealed that nearly 92% area in the eastern, north-eastern, and deltaic sub-basin was susceptible to floods. roc analysis indicated high success (0.932) and prediction (0.903) rates for the susceptibility map while loocv (r2 being 0.97) and kappa (k = 0.934) have shown substantial prediction of the model. hence, the susceptibility maps are useful for the local planners and government organization in designing the early flood warning system, and reducing the human and economic losses. the methodology used in this study is applicable for analyzing flood susceptibility at spatial scales in similar systems. 12. title: one and done? exploring linkages between households' intended adaptations to climate-induced floods authors: brayton noll, tatiana filatova, ariana need abstract: as climate change increases the probability and severity of natural hazards, the need for coordinated adaptation at all levels of society intensifies. governmental-level adaptation measures are essential, but insufficient in the face of growing risks, necessitating complementary action from households. apprehending the drivers of household adaptation is critical if governments are to stimulate protective behavior effectively. while past work has focused on the behavioral drivers of household adaptation, little attention has been paid to understanding the relationships between adaptation measures themselves�both previously undergone and additionally (planned) intended adaptation(s). using survey data (n = 4,688) from four countries�the united states, china, indonesia, and the netherlands�we utilize protection motivation theory to account for the behavioral drivers of household adaptation to the most devastating climate-driven hazard: flooding. we analyze how past and additionally intended adaptations involving structural modification to one's home affect household behavior. we find that both prior adaptations and additionally intended adaptation have a positive effect on intending a specific adaptation. further, we note that once links between adaptations are accounted for, the effect that worry has on motivating specific actions, substantially lessens. this suggests that while threat appraisal is important in initially determining if households intend to adapt, it is households' adaptive capacity that determines how. our analysis reveals that household structural modifications may be nonmarginal. this could indicate that past action and intention to pursue one action trigger intentions for other adaptations, a finding with implications for estimating the speed and scope of household adaptation diffusion. 13. title: a novel methodology concentrating on risk propagation to conduct a risk analysis based on a directed complex network authors: xiaoxue ma, wanyi deng, weiliang qiao, huiwen luo abstract: a novel methodology is proposed in the present study to describe the risk propagation process by quantitatively evaluating the criticality and sensitivity of risk events according to complex network theory, based on which risk matrices are developed to interrupt the risk propagation process by setting up safety barriers. the applicability and accuracy of the improved k-shell decomposition algorithm and risk flow model for calculating the criticality proposed in this study are verified by the susceptible-infected-recovered (sir) simulation, which is widely regarded as a benchmark for complex networks (cn) issues. the results confirm the advantages of the proposed methodologies considering comprehensively various comparison indicators. the sensitivity of the nodes is quantified by running an sir simulation with a variable infection rate and recovery rate. finally, the criticality and sensitivity of risk events contribute to the development of risk matrices with three different risk scenarios, based on which the applicability and effectiveness of safety barriers are qualitatively analyzed to interrupt the risk propagation process. the framework and methodologies proposed in this study could well present the risk propagation process within cns and are proven to have a great potential for studies on safety barriers. 14. title: joint optimization of mission abort and protective device selection policies for multistate systems authors: xian zhao, xiaofei chai, jinglei sun, qingan qiu abstract: for safety-critical systems such as aircrafts and submarines, mission abort is commonly deployed to enhance system survivability at the cost of reducing mission success probability. in addition to mission abort, protective device can also mitigate the failure risk of safety-critical systems by reducing the magnitude of external shocks. considering the effect of protective device on system failure behavior, this article proposes a condition-based mission abort policy where a mission is terminated and rescue procedure starts immediately if the state of system is worse than a control limit. based on the developed mission abort policy, mission reliability and system survivability are evaluated to analyze the risk of mission failure and system failure. the optimal mission abort threshold balancing the tradeoff between mission reliability and system survivability is investigated. furthermore, the joint optimization of mission abort and protective device selection policies is explored by simultaneously optimizing the defensive factor and abort threshold. a numerical example on a hydraulic system is presented to illustrate the applicability of the proposed policies. 15. title: bayesian network-based risk assessment of synthetic biology: simulating crispr-cas9 gene drive dynamics in invasive rodent management authors: ethan a. brown, steven r. eikenbary, wayne g. landis abstract: gene drive technology has been proposed to control invasive rodent populations as an alternative to rodenticides. however, this approach has not undergone risk assessment that meets criteria established by gene drives on the horizon, a 2016 report by the national academies of sciences, engineering, and medicine. to conduct a risk assessment of gene drives, we employed the bayesian network�relative risk model to calculate the risk of mouse eradication on southeast farallon island using a crispr-cas9 homing gene drive construct. we modified and implemented the r-based model �mgdrive� to simulate and compare 60 management strategies for gene drive rodent management. these scenarios spanned four gene drive mouse release schemes, three gene drive homing rates, three levels of supplemental rodenticide dose, and two timings of rodenticide application relative to gene drive release. simulation results showed that applying 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