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��ࡱ�>�� uw����t��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������u �r��fbjbj�n�n2b��a��a�> �������""������������8�tm��mliiiii���/m1m1m1m1m1m1m$o��q<um������um��ii4jmwww��i�i/mw�/mwwwi����;�&�o������wm�m0�mwr�frww�0r��i$��w�����umum:����m������������������������������������������������������������������������r���������"q s: the quarterly journal of economics volume 139, issue 1, february 2024 1. title: predicting and preventing gun violence: an experimental evaluation of readi chicago authors: monica p bhatt and others abstract: gun violence is the most pressing public safety problem in u.s. cities. we report results from a randomized controlled trial (n = 2,456) of a community-researcher partnership called the rapid employment and development initiative (readi) chicago. the program offered an 18-month job alongside cognitive behavioral therapy and other social support. both algorithmic and human referral methods identified men with strikingly high scope for gun violence reduction: for every 100 people in the control group, there were 11 shooting and homicide victimizations during the 20-month outcome period. fifty-five percent of the treatment group started programming, comparable to take-up rates in programs for people facing far lower mortality risk. after 20 months, there is no statistically significant change in an index combining three measures of serious violence, the study�s primary outcome. yet there are signs that this program model has promise. one of the three measures, shooting and homicide arrests, declined 65% (p = .13 after multiple-testing adjustment). because shootings are so costly, readi generated estimated social savings between 182,000 and 916,000 per participant (p = .03), implying a benefit-cost ratio between 4:1 and 18:1. moreover, participants referred by outreach workers�a prespecified subgroup�saw enormous declines in arrests and victimizations for shootings and homicides (79% and 43%, respectively) which remain statistically significant even after multiple-testing adjustments. these declines are concentrated among outreach referrals with higher predicted risk, suggesting that human and algorithmic targeting may work better together. 2. title: eviction and poverty in american cities authors: robert collinson and others abstract: more than two million u.s. households have an eviction case filed against them each year. policy makers at the federal, state, and local levels are increasingly pursuing policies to reduce the number of evictions, citing harm to tenants and high public expenditures related to homelessness. we study the consequences of eviction for tenants using newly linked administrative data from two major urban areas: cook county (which includes chicago) and new york city. we document that before housing court, tenants experience declines in earnings and employment and increases in financial distress and hospital visits. these pre trends pose a challenge for disentangling correlation and causation. to address this problem, we use an instrumental variables approach based on cases randomly assigned to judges of varying leniency. we find that an eviction order increases homelessness and hospital visits and reduces earnings, durable goods consumption, and access to credit in the first two years. effects on housing and labor market outcomes are driven by effects for female and black tenants. in the longer run, eviction increases indebtedness and reduces credit scores. 3. title: new pricing models, same old phillips curves? authors: adrien auclert and others abstract: we show that in a broad class of menu cost models, the first-order dynamics of aggregate inflation in response to arbitrary shocks to aggregate costs are nearly the same as in calvo models with suitably chosen calvo adjustment frequencies. we first prove that the canonical menu cost model is first-order equivalent to a mixture of two time-dependent models, which reflect the extensive and intensive margins of price adjustment. we then show numerically that in any plausible parameterization, this mixture is well approximated by a single calvo model. this close numerical fit carries over to other standard specifications of menu cost models. thus, for shocks that are not too large, the phillips curve for a menu cost model looks like the new keynesian phillips curve, but with a higher slope. 4. title: a denial a day keeps the doctor away authors: abe dunn and others abstract: who bears the consequences of administrative problems in health care? we use data on repeated interactions between a large sample of u.s. physicians and many different insurers to document the complexity of health care billing, and estimate its economic costs for doctors and consequences for patients. observing the back-and-forth sequences of claim denials and resubmissions for past visits, we can estimate physicians� costs of haggling with insurers to collect payments. combining these costs with the revenue never collected, we estimate that physicians lose 18% of medicaid revenue to billing problems, compared with 4.7% for medicare and 2.4% for commercial insurers. identifying off of physician movers and practices that span state boundaries, we find that physicians respond to billing problems by refusing to accept medicaid patients in states with more severe billing hurdles. these hurdles are quantitatively just as important as payment rates for explaining variation in physicians� willingness to treat medicaid patients. we conclude that administrative frictions have first-order costs for doctors, patients, and equality of access to health care. we quantify the potential economic gains�in terms of reduced public spending or increased access to physicians�if these frictions could be reduced and find them to be sizable. 5. title: trading nontradables: the implications of europe�s job-posting policy authors: mathilde mu�oz abstract: this article examines the labor market implications of the eu posting policy, a large temporary migration program facilitated by the liberalization of the free provision of services in europe. posting allows eu firms to send (post) their employees abroad to export customer-facing services. combining administrative data and quasi-experimental policy variation, i find that the policy permanently increased total factor mobility in europe without crowding out traditional migration. this result suggests that unrealized gains from trade in factor services remained despite the absence of regulatory barriers to trade and migration in the eu. furthermore, posted workers are mostly sent from low-wage countries to perform manual tasks in sectors formerly insulated from trade, and they represent a substantial share of eu migrant workers. in receiving countries, posting had persistent negative effects on employment for domestic workers in the more exposed sectors and local labor markets, but it had no effects on domestic wages. in low-wage sending countries, firms in formerly �nontradable� sectors experienced increased sales, profits, and tax payments when exporting services through posting. posted workers earn more once sent abroad but remain paid at lower wages than comparable domestic workers in the receiving country. wage gains for posted workers are mostly explained by minimum wages enforced by the eu policy, highlighting the role of labor market regulations in shaping the way gains from globalization are shared between labor and capital owners in origin countries. 6. title: inference on winners authors: isaiah andrews and others abstract: policy makers, firms, and researchers often choose among multiple options based on estimates. sampling error in the estimates used to guide choice leads to a winner�s curse, since we are more likely to select a given option precisely when we overestimate its effectiveness. this winner�s curse biases our estimates for selected options upward and can invalidate conventional confidence intervals. this article develops estimators and confidence intervals that eliminate this winner�s curse. we illustrate our results by studying selection of job-training programs based on estimated earnings effects and selection of neighborhoods based on estimated economic opportunity. we find that our winner�s curse corrections can make an economically significant difference to conclusions but still allow informative inference. 7. title: an economic framework for vaccine prioritization authors: mohammad akbarpour and others abstract: we propose an economic framework for determining the optimal allocation of a scarce supply of vaccines that become gradually available during a public health crisis, such as the covid-19 pandemic. agents differ in observable and unobservable characteristics, and the designer maximizes a social welfare function over all feasible mechanisms�accounting for agents� characteristics, as well as their endogenous behavior in the face of the pandemic. the framework emphasizes the role of externalities and incorporates equity as well as efficiency concerns. our results provide an economic justification for providing vaccines immediately and for free to some groups of agents, while at the same time showing that a carefully constructed pricing mechanism can improve outcomes by screening for individuals with the highest private and social benefits of receiving the vaccine. the solution casts light on the classic question of whether prices or priorities should be used to allocate scarce public resources under externalities and equity concerns. 8. title: measuring welfare and inequality with incomplete price information authors: david atkin and others abstract: we propose and implement a new approach that allows us to estimate income-specific changes in household welfare in contexts where well-measured prices are not available for important subsets of consumption. using rich but widely available expenditure survey microdata, we show that we can recover income-specific equivalent and compensating variations from horizontal shifts in what we call �relative engel curves��as long as preferences fall within the broad quasi-separable class (gorman 1970, 1976). our approach is flexible enough to allow for nonparametric estimation at each point of the income distribution. we apply the methodology to estimate inflation and welfare changes in rural india between 1987 and 2000. our estimates reveal that lower rates of inflation for the rich erased the real income convergence found in the existing literature that uses the subset of consumption with well-measured prices to calculate inflation. 9. title: measuring growth in consumer welfare with income-dependent preferences: nonparametric methods and estimates for the united states authors: xavier jaravel and danial lashkari abstract: how should we measure changes in consumer welfare given observed data on prices and expenditures? this article proposes a nonparametric approach that holds under arbitrary preferences that may depend on observable consumer characteristics, for example, when expenditure shares vary with income. using total expenditures under a constant set of prices as our money metric for real consumption (welfare), we derive a principled measure of real consumption growth featuring a correction term relative to conventional measures. we show that the correction can be nonparametrically estimated with an algorithm leveraging the observed, cross-sectional relationship between household-level price indices and household characteristics such as income. we demonstrate the accuracy of our algorithm in simulations. applying our approach to data from the united states, we find that the magnitude of the correction can be large because of the combination of fast growth and lower inflation for income-elastic products. setting reference prices in 2019, we find that (i) the uncorrected measure underestimates average real consumption per household in 1955 by 11.5%, and (ii) the correction reduces the annual growth rate from 1955 to 2019 by 18 basis points, which is larger than the well-known �expenditure-switching bias� over the same time horizon. 10. title: measuring welfare by matching households across time authors: david r baqaee and others abstract: the money metric utility function is an essential tool for calculating welfare-relevant growth and inflation. we show how to recover it from repeated cross-sectional data without making parametric assumptions about preferences. we do this by solving the following recursive problem. given compensated demand, we construct money metric utility by integration. given money metric utility, we construct compensated demand by matching households over time whose money metric utility value is the same. we illustrate our method using household consumption survey data from the united kingdom from 1974 to 2017 and find that real consumption calculated using official aggregate inflation statistics overstates money metric utility in 1974 pounds for the poorest households by around 0.5% a year and understates it by around a third of a percentage point per year for the richest households. we extend our method to allow for missing or mismeasured prices, assuming preferences are separable between goods with well-measured prices and the rest. we discuss how our results change if the prices of some service sectors are mismeasured. 11. title: representation and extrapolation: evidence from clinical trials authors: marcella alsan and others abstract: this article examines the consequences and causes of low enrollment of black patients in clinical trials. we develop a simple model of similarity-based extrapolation that predicts that evidence is more relevant for decision-making by physicians and patients when it is more representative of the group being treated. this generates the key result that the perceived benefit of a medicine for a group depends not only on the average benefit from a trial but also on the share of patients from that group who were enrolled in the trial. in survey experiments, we find that physicians who care for black patients are more willing to prescribe drugs tested in representative samples, an effect substantial enough to close observed gaps in the prescribing rates of new medicines. black patients update more on drug efficacy when the sample that the drug is tested on is more representative, reducing black-white patient gaps in beliefs about whether the drug will work as described. despite these benefits of representative data, our framework and evidence suggest that those who have benefited more from past medical breakthroughs are less costly to enroll in the present, leading to persistence in who is represented in the evidence base. 12. title: does taxing business owners affect employees? evidence from a change in the top marginal tax rate authors: max risch abstract: debates about the taxation of business owners often center on the distributional effects of these taxes, particularly the degree to which they affect workers. drawing on a new linked owner-firm-worker data set created from u.s. administrative tax records, i analyze how an increase in the top marginal tax rate faced by business owners affected the earnings of their employees. i use panel difference-in-differences methods to compare the earnings of workers in similar firms but whose owners were differentially exposed to the tax increase. i estimate that 11�18 cents per dollar of new business income tax liability was passed through to employee earnings. i find no change in employment in response to the tax increase. the responses were generally associated with lower earnings growth, not changes in workforce composition. the burden was not borne equally by all workers. essentially all of the workers� share of the burden was borne by those in the top 30% of the earnings distribution, highlighting that the ultimate distributional effects of the policy depend not only on the share of the burden borne by workers but on the shares borne by different types of workers. furthermore, since the owners bore the majority of the burden, the policy resulted in a decrease in after-tax earnings inequality between top-bracket owners and lower-bracket workers. i discuss the implications of the findings for the mediating labor market mechanisms and for welfare analyses of income taxation using a marginal value of public funds framework.     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