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��ࡱ�>�� u �r�cbjbj�n�n2��a��a�� ""��8��4��tl��%%%�stttttt$lv�y<%tu�%%%%%%t��4�t� � � %f��s� %�s� � � ��t"��k(� �s�t0�t� >y�j>y� � �/>y��p%%� %%%%%%t%t��%%%�t%%%%��>y%%%%%%%%%"qs: global environmental change volume 71, issue 6, november 2021 1. title: do we prioritize floodplains for development and farming? mapping global dependence and exposure to inundation authors: rachel dryden, mira anand, bernhard lehner, etienne fluet-chouinard. abstract: global wetlands and floodplains offer benefits and perils alike for human society. for example, humans rely on natural flood cycles for fisheries and agriculture, yet flooding also caused nearly one trillion usd in damage in the past 30 years and impacts millions of people every year. looking forward, altered flow regimes or increased drought conditions are expected to affect the natural inundation cycle and its ecosystem services. the current and potential future impacts of flooding and drying events warrant increasing efforts to quantify our dependence and exposure within flooded areas, since any change from current inundation patterns is expected to have consequences for those who rely on regular flood occurrences. this paper provides a baseline global assessment of the dependence and exposure of human populations, urban areas, roads, and agriculture on current inundation patterns. the analysis uses a spatially explicit inundation map at <"500 m resolution (giems-d15) derived from satellite remote sensing to represent flooding extents and overlays it with current population and land use maps. we find that 35% of the analyzed population, or 2.0 billion people, live inside areas that are prone to inland flooding, which comprise only 12% of the land surface area (excluding marine coastal areas), confirming that population densities within inundation zones are about three-times above global average. likewise, 35% of urban areas potentially experience regular, seasonal, or infrequent flooding. agriculture shows a similar pattern with 24% of the world�s cropland in areas of recurring inundation. finally, we estimate that 18% of the global road network is exposed to inundation during high water periods. these global estimates demonstrate a preferential tendency of human populations, infrastructure, and agriculture to be co-located within inundation areas, making related anthropogenic activities highly susceptible to future changes in flood regimes. the results are intended to offer a suite of first-order estimates as partial input to more holistic risk and vulnerability assessments and to ultimately improve environmental planning and policy at large scales. 2. title: collective action for changing forests: a spatial, social-ecological approach to assessing participation in invasive plant management authors: abigail sullivan, abigail m. york. abstract: environmental governance research has discovered much about what drives collective action to address human-environment issues, including factors such as risk perceptions and self-efficacy. yet the design of many studies limits our ability to draw conclusions about collective action under conditions of environmental change, especially across spatial or temporal scales. in this study, we integrate social and biophysical data�assessing data over time and examining the influence of space�to analyze efforts by community members to manage rapid environmental change in the form of an invasive plant (mikania micrantha) in community forests in chitwan, nepal. invasive species are an increasingly complex ethical, cultural, and ecological issue that is becoming more pressing with global environmental and social changes. we combine household surveys, ecological surveys, and spatial data in bayesian hierarchical linear models to explore changes in the drivers of collective action since initial household surveys in 2014. we find that risk perceptions, reliance on forest resources, perceptions of forest safety, and m. micrantha abundance were the most influential factors in our models. additionally, our findings suggest that the influence of m. micrantha abundance on collective action varies across spatial scales, indicating important interactions between social and biophysical drivers of collective action. ultimately, our results highlight the importance of considering social and biophysical factors across space and time to inform the design of institutions that will be effective in addressing collection action problems tied to environmental change. 3. title: polarization of climate politics results from partisan sorting: evidence from finnish twittersphere authors: ted hsuan yun chen, ali salloum, antti gronow, tuomas yl�-anttila, mikko kivel�. abstract: prior research shows that public opinion on climate politics sorts along partisan lines. however, they leave open the question of whether climate politics and other politically salient issues exhibit tendencies for issue alignment, which the political polarization literature identifies as among the most deleterious aspects of polarization. using a network approach and social media data from the twitter platform, we study polarization of public opinion toward climate politics and ten other politically salient topics during the 2019 finnish elections as the emergence of opposing groups in a public forum. we find that while climate politics is not particularly polarized compared to the other topics, it is subject to partisan sorting and issue alignment within the universalist-communitarian dimension of european politics that arose following the growth of right-wing populism. notably, climate politics is consistently aligned with the immigration issue, and temporal trends indicate that this phenomenon will likely persist. 4. title: improving the evidence base: a methodological review of the quantitative climate migration literature authors: roman hoffmann, barbora �edov�, kira vinke. abstract: the question whether and how climatic factors influence human migration has gained both academic and public interest in the past years. based on two meta-analyses, this paper systematically reviews the quantitative empirical literature on climate-related migration from a methodological perspective. in total, information from 127 original micro- and macro-level studies is analyzed to assess how different concepts, research designs, and analytical methods shape our understanding of climate migration. we provide an overview of common methodological approaches and present evidence on their potential implications for the estimation of climatic impacts. we identify five key challenges, which relate to the i) measurement of migration and ii) climatic events, iii) the integration and aggregation of data, iv) the identification of causal relationships, and v) the exploration of contextual influences and mechanisms. advances in research and modelling are discussed together with best practice cases to provide guidance to researchers studying the climate-migration nexus. we recommend for future empirical studies to employ approaches that are of relevance for and reflect local contexts, ensuring high levels of comparability and transparency. 5. title: bringing greenhouse gas removal down to earth: stakeholder supply chain appraisals reveal complex challenges authors: diarmaid s. clery, naomi e. vaughan, johanna forster, irene lorenzoni, jason chilvers. abstract: greenhouse gas removal (ggr) approaches are considered essential in several projections to meet the climate mitigation ambition of the paris agreement. biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (beccs) and afforestation are included extensively in mitigation scenarios but there are concerns about the feasibility of these approaches. this was explored with stakeholders from industry, non-governmental organisations (ngos) and policy who were involved in interviews and a one-day participatory workshop. multicriteria mapping (mcm) methodology was used to appraise the �real-world� feasibility of four specific greenhouse gas removal supply chains at a granular level in the uk context. the mcm analysis shows that afforestation performs better in comparison to three beccs supply chains, on criteria such as business model, social acceptability, and environmental sustainability. this innovative application of the mcm methodology enables the abstract representations of ggr in integrated assessment models to be explored at a more granular level through a supply chain analysis and thus gain a deeper understanding of the issues facing these approaches. the data gathered allows a wide range of technical, environmental, social and political criteria to be systematically applied in appraising the practical performance of different future implementation options for afforestation and beccs. if these ggr supply chains are to become a reality on the scale required for 1.5 �c global warming, factors such as global cooperation, land availability, and the longevity of policies and incentives were found to be major challenges. 6. title: the role of voluntary commitments in realizing the promise of the blue economy authors: michelle voyer, edward h. allison, anna farmery, michael fabinyi, neil andrew. abstract: voluntary (or non-binding) commitments offer an action-oriented mechanism for addressing interconnected, complex and pressing issues. though not designed to replace negotiated or binding outcomes, voluntary commitments can offer a critical tool in currently ungoverned or under-governed systems. the blue economy is an example of a rapidly evolving agenda where formal governance arrangements are at best nascent, in part due to the trans-border nature of issues and prominent involvement of multiple types of actors. as such voluntary commitments provide an important mechanism through which to monitor the evolution of the concept and identify gaps or shortfalls in its implementation. our analysis of global voluntary commitments on the blue economy made to recent high-profile ocean futures meetings, found a trend towards capacity development, research, and investment in emerging and larger scale sectors such as offshore aquaculture and renewable energy. a concurrent focus was on securitizing, regulating or diverting effort from historically significant fisheries sectors. european organizations are playing a dominant role in blue economy commitments, with a notable absence of commitments from major blue economy powers such as china and india. we identify a number of gaps and shortfalls, particularly in relation to active consideration of social equity in the blue economy. we identify a range of recommendations on how these deficiencies may be addressed through a greater focus on a broader suite of objectives and a more inclusive approach to ocean meetings. 7. title: linking internal and external transformation for sustainability and climate action: towards a new research and policy agenda authors: christine wamsler, gustav osberg, walter osika, heidi herndersson, luis mundaca. abstract: climate change is an increasing threat to sustainable development worldwide. however, the dominant incremental policy approaches have not generated action at anywhere near the rate, scale or depth that is needed. this is largely due to the fact that climate change has historically been framed as a purely external, technical challenge. there is an urgent need for a more integral understanding that links internal and external (collective and systems) approaches to support transformation. however, related knowledge is scarce and fragmented across disciplines. this study addresses this gap. through a systematic literature review, we analyse how the linkages between internal and external change are portrayed and understood in current research. we assess the scope, perspectives and approaches used to understand why, and how, internal change relates to climate action and sustainability. our results highlight patterns and gaps regarding foci, conceptualisation, methods, epistemology, ontology and ethics that hamper emergent solutions and progress. starting from the status quo, we propose an integrated model of change as an agenda and roadmap for future research, policy and practice. 8. title: battle over the sun: resistance, tension, and divergence in enabling rooftop solar adoption in indonesia authors: hilman s. fathoni, rizaldi boer, sulistiyanti. abstract: this article examines sustainability transitions in the global south, focusing on the adoption of rooftop photovoltaic (pv) systems in indonesia as a case study. based on 55 in-depth interviews and a secondary data review, we develop an alternative analytical framework that draws insights from geographical political economy and political ecology. this alternative lens allows us to better inform the socio-technical transition literature by uncovering both the spatial implications of renewable energy transitions and the power differentials underpinning them. we find that the emergence of rooftop pv technology in indonesia has provoked resistance, as it challenges the incumbent power company�s monopoly over urban space, the java-bali grid system�s dependency on coal-based electricity, and state-led practices that prioritise the implementation of small-scale solar in rural and remote areas. we argue that paying attention to the asymmetric power relations among institutions and actors across multiple scales offers a more-fine grained approach to analysing the dynamics of sustainability transitions. our findings also call for greater attention to diverse and divergent perspectives among niche actors, emphasising the need to genuinely embrace local voices and knowledge that might otherwise be marginalised by the dominant globally and nationally driven narratives of renewable transition. 9. title: situated adaptation: tackling the production of vulnerability through transformative action in sri lanka�s dry zone authors: harry m. quealy, julian s. yates. abstract: drawing attention to the production of vulnerability across scales in sri lanka, we contribute to knowledge of why certain people and social groups are vulnerable. we build our contribution on the theoretical application of �situated adaptation�. a situated analytical approach identifies, assesses, and responds to the everyday realities and politics of those living in climate changed environments. it highlights uneven geographies of vulnerability and opportunity, while identifying new imaginations and possibilities for transformative action that counter the production of vulnerability. we illustrate the utility of �situated adaptation� by filling an empirical gap relating to experiences of political-economic and environmental change in sri lanka�s dry zone. we detail situated experiences by drawing on field research in the anuradhapura district, revealing how the lives and livelihoods of farmer participants are structured by a productivity-vulnerability paradox. we demonstrate how a prevalent adaptation-development paradigm (whereby development and adaptation programs co-exist in theory and practice) is unable to address the structural drivers of vulnerability in sri lanka�s dry zone. a situated adaptation approach both explains why this is the case and highlights opportunities for alternative transformative actions, potentially identifying a more democratic and egalitarian politics of co-determining socionatural change. 10. title: climate change may impair electricity generation and economic viability of future amazon hydropower authors: rafael m. almeida, ayan s. fleischmann, jo�o p.f. br�da, diego s. cardoso, alexander s. flecker. abstract: numerous hydropower facilities are under construction or planned in tropical and subtropical rivers worldwide. while dams are typically designed considering historic river discharge regimes, climate change is likely to induce large-scale alterations in river hydrology. here we analyze how future climate change will affect river hydrology, electricity generation, and economic viability of > 350 potential hydropower dams across the amazon, earth�s largest river basin and a global hotspot for future hydropower development. midcentury projections for the rcp 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios show basin-wide reductions of river discharge (means, 13 and 16%, respectively) and hydropower generation (19 and 27%). declines are sharper for dams in brazil, which harbors 60% of the proposed projects. climate change will cause more frequent low-discharge interruption of hydropower generation and less frequent full-capacity operation. consequently, the minimum electricity sale price for projects to break even more than doubles at many proposed dams, rendering much of future amazon hydropower less competitive than increasingly lower cost renewable sources such as wind and solar. climate-smart power systems will be fundamental to support environmentally and financially sustainable energy development in hydropower-dependent regions. 11. title: socio-economic and climatic changes lead to contrasting global urban vegetation trends authors: wenmin zhang, mark randall, marina b. jensen, martin brandt, rasmus fensholt. abstract: urban greening can enhance quality of life by generating ecosystem services and has been proposed as a way of mitigating adverse consequences of global warming for human health. however, there is limited knowledge on global trends in urban vegetation and their relation to economic development and climate change. here we studied 1,688 major cities worldwide and show that 70% (1,181) show an increase in vegetation derived from satellite observations (2000�2018). for 68% (1,138) of the cities studied, the increase in the urban vegetation is less strong as compared to the vegetation increase found in the surroundings of these cities. overall, positive vegetation trends are widely observed in cities in europe and north america, whereas negative vegetation trends in cities occur primarily in africa, south america and asia. gross domestic product growth, population growth as well as temperature are found to be the main underlying drivers of the observed contrasts in changes in urban vegetation as compared to surrounding areas across continents. from a global synthesis of urban vegetation change, we quantify the role of social-economic development and climate change in regulating urban vegetation growth, and the contrasting imprint on cities of developed and developing countries. 12. title: stories from the ipcc: an essay on climate science in fourteen questions authors: miriam gay-antaki. abstract: women�s experiences as intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) authors, have been explored showing how gender, race, nationality, etc. increase barriers to participate in the production of climate science even for the best scientists. recently, the ipcc gender task force, conducted another survey exploring barriers to participation in the ipcc that included men as well as women. the gender task force released a report on gendered barriers mostly focusing on quantitative responses. this paper presents a qualitative analysis of the fourteen open-ended questions in the survey. in addition to qualitative analysis, storytelling and the concept of feminist objectivity are useful approaches to convey the complicated web of responses of over 500 scientists about their experiences participating in the ipcc and in climate science more broadly. gender, race and nationality continue to be barriers. i stress the connection between exclusions of underrepresented scientists in the ipcc with the persistent western belief that science is an objective and impartial practice. the paper brings attention to exclusionary structures that prevent participation in the ipcc and in science more broadly, but also provides stories of how these are resisted. these stories go beyond recognizing people as disadvantaged toward addressing the intersecting structures that exclude people from participating in science. as climate science becomes more diverse, and evidence points toward the benefit of diversity for superior science, understanding barriers and opportunities for scientists participating in multidisciplinary and international reports such as the ipcc becomes increasingly important. the stories provide a theoretical and methodological catalyst for international science institutions who seek to increase the influence and presence of underrepresented groups in science and produce superior science. 13. title: why common interests and collective action are not enough for environmental cooperation � lessons from the china-eu cooperation discourse on circular economy authors: anran luo, mehwish zuberi, jiayu liu, miranda perrone, sina leipold. abstract: scholars have argued that circular economy (ce) must be upscaled and globalized to address excessive resource extraction and waste generation. many ce practitioners consider the first international ce agreement between china and the eu a milestone towards such an effort. this analysis shows why this expectation is premature. european and chinese stakeholders� optimistic and depoliticized ce narratives disable communication regarding development disparities, negative competition and distrust, which shape geopolitical rivalry. while skeptical narratives that address political barriers exist, they fall short of suggesting alternatives. based on 72 stakeholder interviews, 40 documents and participant observation, these results highlight the critical importance of investigating narrative strategies to repoliticize environmental cooperation. such narrative strategies would support contestation and negotiation on development disparities and open channels for joint conceptualization of implementation scales for environmental strategies, circular or otherwise. we therefore propose using constructivist perspectives of international relations to explore discursive barriers and enablers to global environmental action. 14. title: the drivers of individual climate actions in europe authors: johannes reichl, jed j. cohen, christian a. kl�ckner, andrea kollmann, valeriya azarova. abstract: we analyze european citizens� willingness to take climate mitigation action with data on one-time donation choices from a survey of 15,951 people across 27 nations. responses are explored with an interdisciplinary hybrid choice model that integrates principles of psychology and economics. the results suggest that only participants who are certain about the reality of global warming and believe it is largely anthropogenic have a significantly higher willingness to donate to climate mitigation compared to groups with less certain beliefs. individual drivers of climate action are identified in the perceived ancillary benefits of the actions, psychological factors, individual habits, and exposure to a collective efficacy treatment script. additionally, national patterns in the observed donations suggest that increased climate mitigation spending at the country level may decrease citizen-level action and that frequent exposure to extreme weather events is associated with decreased support for mitigation actions. finally, the results also highlight the importance of consistent messages about climate change, which may drive varying beliefs and personal norms and their predictors, and suggest key levers that may stimulate actions from specific groups. 15. title: climate change mitigation on tropical peatlands: a triple burden for smallholder farmers in indonesia authors: jennifer merten, jonas �stergaard nielsen, rosyani, heiko faust. abstract: the agricultural use and conversion of tropical peatlands is considered a major source of land-based greenhouse gas emissions. thus, the protection and restoration of tropical peatlands has recently turned into an important strategy to mitigate global climate change. little research exists that has investigated the impacts and dynamics that such climate mitigation efforts evoke in local communities living in and around peatlands. we present insights on this from sumatra, indonesia and use a climate justice lens to evaluate local outcomes. we show how an increasingly transnational network of state and non-state actors has become involved in developing new laws, policy programs and land-use agreements on sumatra�s coastal peatlands, aiming at supposedly win�win low-carbon development pathways. we argue that such efforts are open to much of the same criticism that has been raised regarding previous policies and projects aimed at reducing ghge from deforestation and forest degradation. these projects disregard local perspectives on development, fail to deliver the promised benefits and, through a reconfiguration of local land-use rights, reduce the capabilities of smallholder farmers to benefit from their land. in sum, our analysis suggests that recent policies and projects aimed at mitigating ghge from tropical peatlands contribute to a redistribution of the global climate mitigation burden onto smallholder farmers in indonesia. this occurs through their threefold assignment to protect forests, prevent fires and help restore degraded peatlands. 16. title: the greta effect: visualising climate protest in uk media and the getty images collections authors: sylvia hayes, saffron o'neill. abstract: media actors, broadly conceived, act as powerful agents shaping not only what we think about, but also how we think about it. whilst research at the site of news content (e.g. newspaper articles) has proliferated, there is little understanding about the site of news production (i.e. the role that powerful actors play in shaping news content). here, both news content (via newspaper articles) and news production (via image collections) are examined together to seek to understand how climate protest has been visually represented. this study focuses on the period between 2019 and 2020, a time of significant growth for climate protest through the expansion of movements including extinction rebellion and fridays for future. historically, protest is often represented in the media through the �protest paradigm�, with protestors depicted as socially deviant. this study sought to examine if this paradigm held true for these most recent protests. climate protest imagery was collected from a globally-dominant image collection, getty images; and from the digital archives of five major uk newspapers. secondary analysis was also undertaken of a longitudinal visual media datasource featuring three of the same uk newspapers from 2001 to 2009. the study shows that in 2001�2009, climate protest was typically visualised in a way which obscured the human face of protest and was consistent with the protest paradigm. in contrast, in 2019�20, protesters � and particularly school strikers � were depicted in an individualised, powerful, and hopeful way. the dominant face of climate protest in 2019�20 is visually represented in the media as young and female. we conclude that the visual discourse of climate protest has shifted away from the protest paradigm to instead depict climate change as an issue of intergenerational equity. 17. title: coping with scarcity: the construction of the water conservation imperative in newspapers (1999�2018) authors: anne-lise boyer, yves-fran�ois le lay, pascal marty. abstract: as water-stressed areas are expanding worldwide due to climate change, water conservation has become an important tool for managing water resources in drought contexts. within a political ecology framework, our research questions the success story of water conservation. to do so, we conducted a quantitative textual analysis of 520 daily local press articles dealing with drought and water issues in phoenix and tucson (arizona, usa). using two open-access lexicometric software, our analysis traces the rise of the water conservation narrative in the press. our results show how newspapers can become an instrument of public policies to work towards their social acceptance. moreover, water conservation is framed as a consensual tool. it reassures that threats associated with water scarcity will be successfully managed to sustain urban growth in arid regions. in this sense, water conservation operates following a logic of fix, in line with the successive hydrosocial fixes that helped the development of arid lands and does not question inherited power structures in water management. 18. title: early warnings and emerging accountability: total�s responses to global warming, 1971�2021 authors: christophe bonneuil, pierre-louis choquet, benjamin franta abstract: building upon recent work on other major fossil fuel companies, we report new archival research and primary source interviews describing how total responded to evolving climate science and policy in the last 50 years. we show that total personnel received warnings of the potential for catastrophic global warming from its products by 1971, became more fully informed of the issue in the 1980s, began promoting doubt regarding the scientific basis for global warming by the late 1980s, and ultimately settled on a position in the late 1990s of publicly accepting climate science while promoting policy delay or policies peripheral to fossil fuel control. additionally, we find that exxon, through the international petroleum industry environmental conservation association (ipieca), coordinated an international campaign to dispute climate science and weaken international climate policy, beginning in the 1980s. this represents one of the first longitudinal studies of a major fossil fuel company�s responses to global warming to the present, describing historical stages of awareness, preparation, denial, and delay. 19. title: satellite evidence on the trade-offs of the food-water�air quality nexus over the breadbasket of india authors: mrinal singha, jinwei dong, quansheng ge, graciela metternicht, xiangming xiao. abstract: access to food, water, and good air quality is indispensable for human life, as reflected in various united nations sustainable development goals (sdgs); however, pursuing food security may pose threats to water security and/or air quality. an important case is northwest india including the punjab and haryana states, which is the �breadbasket� of india with a significantly increasing paddy rice area. the rapid expansion of rice farming has stressed groundwater resources and impacted air quality. satellite observations have the potential to provide data for better decisions on food security, water storage, and air pollution, which would be vital for regional sustainable development. based on observations from multiple satellites from 2001 to 2018, we found that paddy rice expansion ( 22%) increased groundwater depletion ("1.50 cm/yr), residue burning ( 500%), and air pollution ( 29%, pm2.5) in the breadbasket of india. moreover, satellite observations showed changes in these interactions after the enactment of a groundwater protection policy in 2009, which decelerated groundwater depletion ("1.20 cm/yr) due to delayed rice planting and harvest dates (<"15d); the latter elevated air pollution in november ( 29%, pm2.5). our finding stresses the need to reconcile the trade-offs and consider the interactions among sdgs 2 (food), 3 (good health), 6 (clean water), and 11 (air quality in cities), in policy-making for sustainable development. an efficient crop residue ultilization and management system, bottom-up groundwater use regulations, and cropping system shift towards less water-consuming crops are critically required to resolve the trade-offs of the food-water�air quality nexus in the northern india. our study also showcases remote sensing approaches and methods to support and aid the achievement of the sdgs and track their progreses to support regional sustainable development. 20. title: the hogg eco-anxiety scale: development and validation of a multidimensional scale authors: teaghan l. hogg, samantha k. stanley, l�an v. o'brien, marc s. wilson, clare r. watsford. abstract: anxiety relating to a multitude of ecological crises, or eco-anxiety, is a subject of growing research significance. we used a multi-study mixed-methods design to explore eco-anxiety in australia and new zealand, validating a new eco-anxiety scale. in study one, we developed and tested a 7-item eco-anxiety scale (n = 334), finding that this captured some, but not all, experiences of eco-anxiety. we found that people were anxious about a range of environmental conditions and their personal negative impact on the planet. notably, people�s anxiety about different environmental conditions (e.g., climate change, environmental degradation, pollution) were interconnected, lending support for the existence of eco-anxiety (a broader construct that encompasses climate change anxiety). these results informed further scale development in study two. exploratory (n = 365) and confirmatory factor analysis (n = 370) supported a final 13-item scale that captured four dimensions of eco-anxiety: affective symptoms, rumination, behavioural symptoms, and anxiety about one�s negative impact on the planet, which were each distinct from stress, anxiety and depression. a further longitudinal sample (n = 189) established the stability of these factors across time. findings support eco-anxiety as a quantifiable psychological experience, reliably measured using our 13-item eco-anxiety scale, and differentiated from mental health outcomes. 21. title: informing national adaptation for sustainable development through spatial systems modelling authors: lena i. fuldauer, scott thacker, jim w. hall. abstract: acute climate-change hazards, such as floods or storm surges, can affect a nation�s built and natural environment assets that are critical for development and achievement of the sustainable development goals (sdgs). to reduce the impacts of such acute climate-change hazards and safeguard development, national decision-makers require evidence on where and how hazards affect sdg achievement to better inform adaptation. here, we develop a systems methodology that spatially models the impacts of climate-change hazards across a nation�s entire built and natural environment assets and its interdependent influences on the sdg targets to inform national adaptation. we apply our methodology in saint lucia through a participatory approach with decision-makers across 18 government ministries, academia, and the private sector. results reveal that acute climate-change hazards can affect half of saint lucia�s assets across 22 sectors, which can influence 89% of all sdg targets. application of our methodology provided evidence on where and how to prioritise adaptation, thereby helping to add spatial granularity to 52 measures under saint lucia�s national adaptation plan (nap) as well as specificity on how limited capacity for cross-sectoral coordination can be directed to safeguard sdg targets. adaptation does not necessarily imply investing in physical asset protection: results show the need to protect critical natural environments which provide important adaptation services to the built environment. as more nations develop and revise their naps and nationally determined contributions under the paris agreement, strategic planning across sectors � as demonstrated in saint lucia � will be critical to facilitate adaptation that safeguards sdg achievement. 22. title: assessing future vulnerability and risk of humanitarian crises using climate change and population projections within the inform framework authors: sepehr marzi, jaroslav mysiak, arthur h. essenfelder, jeremy s. pal, ... michalis vousdoukas. abstract: inform risk index is a global indicator-based disaster risk assessment tool that combines hazards, exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity indicators with the purpose to support humanitarian crisis management decisions considering the current climate and population. in this exploratory study, we extend the index to include future climate change and population projections using rcp 8.5 climate projections of coastal flood, river flood and drought, and ssp3 and ssp5 population projections for the period 2036 to 2065. for the three hazards considered, annually 1.3 billion people (150% increase), 1.8 billion people (249% increase) and 1.5 billion people (197% increase) in the mid-21st century are projected to be exposed under the 2015, ssp3 and ssp5 population estimates, respectively. drought shows the highest exposure levels followed by river flood and then coastal flood, with some regional differences. the largest exposed population is projected in asia, while the largest percent changes are projected in africa and oceania. countries with largest current and projected risk including non-climatic factors are generally located in africa, west and south asia and central america. an uncertainty analysis of the extended index shows that it is generally robust and not influenced by the methodological choices. the projected changes in risk and coping capacity (vulnerability) due to climate change are generally greater than those associated with population changes. countries in europe, western and northern asia and africa tend to show higher reduction levels in vulnerability (lack of coping capacity) required to nullify the adverse impacts of the projected amplified hazards and exposure. the required increase in coping capacity (decreased vulnerability) can inform decision-making processes on disaster risk reduction and adaptation options to maintain manageable risk levels at global and national scale. overall, the extended inform risk index is a means to integrate disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation policy agendas to create conditions for greater policy impact, more efficient use of resources and more effective action in protecting life, livelihoods and valuable assets. 23. title: debt-for-climate swaps: killing two birds with one stone? authors: dennis essers, danny cassimon, martin prowse. abstract: the covid-19 pandemic has further fuelled problems of debt sustainability in developing countries and has sapped the fiscal resources needed to finance climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. we examine whether �debt-for-climate� swaps, instruments whereby debtor countries are relieved from their contractual debt obligations in return for local climate-related spending commitments, may be helpful in tackling worrying debt levels and climate concerns simultaneously. we point out that debt swaps do not have a great historical track record but that common flaws such as their piecemeal nature, lack of additionality and creation of parallel implementation structures, could be overcome by scaling up and careful design. to realize swaps� full potential, a distinction needs to be made between situations where debt is clearly unsustainable and where it is high but sustainable. in the former case, deep and comprehensive debt restructuring should be the primary focus, rather than closely matching debt service savings with increased climate spending; in the latter case, stand-alone debt swaps may be used to transfer resources from creditors to debtor countries that are committed to climate investments but lack fiscal space. another helpful differentiation is that between middle-income debtor countries, where debt swaps could finance climate mitigation interventions, and low-income debtors, where investments in adaption deserve prioritization. finally, debt swap proposals need to be mindful of creditor incentives, including positive reputational payoffs, achieving greater scale using a multi-creditor set-up, at the same time as carefully considering governance credentials in each country context. 24. title: are large-scale hydroelectric dams inherently undemocratic? authors: mar�a alejandra garc�a, laura castro-d�az, sergio villamayor-tomas, maria claudia lopez. abstract: construction of large-scale hydroelectric dams has increased in recent decades in the global south and emerging economies. population resettlement is one of the most severe socioeconomic impacts caused by dam construction. processes aiming to mitigate its impacts and restore livelihoods are often described as inadequate. the resettlement process� ineffectiveness could be explained by persistent deficiency in citizen participation, which is also a sign of the impacted population not being able to participate in the process affecting their lives. our research presents a medium-n comparative study showing the pathways explaining deficiency of participation across 23 large-scale hydroelectric dams in asia, africa, and latin america. we conducted a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis based on information from a qualitative meta-analysis and secondary sources. our results suggest that there are at least two scenarios to explain deficiency in participation. the first scenario includes dams constructed during autocracies, mostly before the release of the world commission on dams guidelines. the second scenario involves the largest dams in our analysis, with high economic and political interests at stake built under both autocratic and democratic regimes, despite the presence of what we categorized as effective forms of public opposition to the project and resettlement process. we discuss features that make large hydroelectric dams less participatory or inherently undemocratic in the global south. 25. title: public preferences for policy intervention to protect public health from maritime activities: a 14 european country study authors: b.r. roberts, m.p. white, s.m.c. davison, o. mcmeel, l.e. fleming. abstract: marine ecosystems provide a wide range of goods and services that directly and indirectly benefit economies and support human health and wellbeing. however, these ecosystems are vulnerable to anthropogenic influences such as climate change, pollution and habitat destruction. the european union (eu) recognises the role of the blue economy in providing jobs and contributing to economic growth, with the eu integrated maritime policy being a cross-sectoral framework within which maritime activities are managed and coordinated. sustainability is a central tenet, ensuring that sectors such as aquaculture and offshore wind energy, which are earmarked for growth, must develop in ways that do not negatively impact the health of the marine environment. however, there is currently little consideration of how these activities might impact public health. the current research used survey data from 14 european countries to explore public perceptions of these issues, broadly focusing on 10 maritime activities, with a specific focus on five activities related to the eu�s 2012 blue growth strategy. the respondents appreciated the interconnections between these maritime activities, environmental protection and public health, as well as the potential trade-offs. preferences for policy intervention to protect public health from different activities were predicted by both marine contact (marine sector employment, recreational activities) and socio-demographic (political attitudes, gender, age) variables, potentially aiding future engagement and communication initiatives. substantive differences observed across countries in terms of policy preferences for different activities, however, warn against generalising for the european population as a whole. 26. title: prospects for a saturation of humanity�s resource use? an analysis of material stocks and flows in nine world regions from 1900 to 2035 authors: dominik wiedenhofer, tomer fishman, barbara plank, alessio miatto, ... fridolin krausmann. abstract: material stocks in infrastructure, buildings and machinery shape current and future resource use and emissions. analyses of specific countries and selected materials suggest that material stocks might saturate, which would be important for a more sustainable social metabolism. however, it is unclear to what extent the evidence holds for a wider range of stocks and flows, as well as for world regions or globally. we present an inflow-driven dynamic stock-flow model for 14 bulk materials, end-of-life outflows, recycling, and waste flows for nine world regions from 1900 to 2015, extended with trend scenarios until 2035. material stocks are growing in all regions and show little signs of saturation yet. in 2015, china used half of global stock-building materials, overtook everyone in stock size around 2012 and grows its stock at <"8%/year. the industrialized regions, including the former soviet union, are slowly expanding their high stock levels at <"1%/year. stocks in all other regions, inhabited by 60% of the world population, grow at <"3 5%/year. inequalities in per capita stocks between regions are large. trend scenarios suggest potential absolute or per capita stock saturations in some of the industrialized regions, while all other regions are expected to continue high stock growth. accumulated stocks drive future end-of-life materials and substantial maintenance and replacement requirements. growing material stocks hamper a potential stabilization or reduction of resource use. low stock levels in most world regions suggest a crucial window of opportunity for avoiding resource-intensive stock development. in the industrialized regions and especially china, stabilising and reducing resource use requires halting net stock expansion and transforming existing stocks. more materials- and energy-efficient and long-lived stocks which deliver high quality services, and improved reuse, repair and recycling of increasing end-of-life materials to close loops and actually replace virgin resources, are crucial for a more sustainable social metabolism. 27. title: assessing the state of traditional knowledge at national level authors: jayalaxshmi mistry, deirdre jafferally, rebecca xavier, grace albert, ... lisa ingwall-king. abstract: traditional practices of indigenous peoples support the sustainable management of a quarter of the global land area. yet their traditional knowledge is declining. to date, there has been insufficient focus on the development of participatory and evidence-based processes for assessing the state of traditional knowledge at national levels. we used traditional knowledge indicators and participatory video to evaluate the state of traditional knowledge within three indigenous groups in guyana. we find that traditional knowledge is perceived to be �stable� and responding and adapting to a diverse set of environmental factors and new circumstances. there are differences amongst indigenous groups, but also commonalities, which help identify areas of intervention and point towards developing shared and collective narratives at the national level to feed into policy making. the findings have critical implications for the ways in which traditional knowledge should be researched, measured and safeguarded. 28. title: renewable energy policies and household solid fuel dependence authors: elena v. mclean, jaeyoung hur, taehee whang. abstract: what effects do domestic and international policies have on household solid fuel consumption? previous studies analyze some of the policies that national governments and international organizations have implemented to reduce solid fuel dependence, but these studies tend to examine one policy and/or one country at a time. in contrast, this article seeks to provide a more systematic analysis of whether and to what extent domestic and international policies can encourage transition to less polluting fuels. using data on the proportion of population using solid cooking fuels, and domestic and international programs promoting renewable energy, we evaluate the association between renewable energy policies and household solid fuel dependence. our statistical tests show that such policies, regardless of their domestic or international origins, matter in explaining the level of solid fuel dependence. as the number of domestic policies increases, the share of population using solid fuels tends to decline. international efforts to promote renewable energy are also linked to reduced solid fuel dependence in countries where such international programs are implemented. 29. title: climate change, social vulnerability and child nutrition in south asia authors: kathryn mcmahon, clark gray. abstract: despite recent advancements in global population well-being and food security, climate change threatens to undermine child nutritional health, particularly for marginalized populations in tropical low- and middle-income countries. south asia is at particular risk for climate-driven undernutrition due to a combination of historical weather exposures, existing nutritional deficits, and a lack of sanitation access. previous studies have established that precipitation extremes increase rates of undernutrition in this region, but the existing literature lacks adequate consideration of temperature anomalies, mediating social factors, and the developmentally-relevant timing of exposure. we combine high-resolution temperature and precipitation data with large-sample survey data on household demographics and child anthropometry, using an approach that incorporates three key developmental periods and a rigorous fixed effects design. we find that precipitation extremes in the first year of life significantly decrease children�s height-for-age (haz) in south asia. the detrimental effects of extreme precipitation are especially concentrated in under-resourced households, such as those lacking access to proper sanitation and education for women, while anomalous heat is particularly harmful for children in pakistan, though it tends to benefit children in some demographic groups. these results indicate that nutritional status in south asia is highly responsive to climate exposures, and that addressing sanitation infrastructure and other development priorities is a pathway towards reducing this vulnerability. 30. title: socioeconomics effects on global hotspots of common debris items on land and the seafloor authors: britta denise hardesty, lauren roman, george h. leonard, nicholas mallos, ... chris wilcox. abstract: pollution of coastal environments by anthropogenic debris is a global problem that is increasingly in the public eye. we evaluated the influence of socioeconomic and geographic factors on common debris items at a global scale. we compared debris density and socioeconomic drivers of the ten most common items reported on land and the seafloor, analyzing data from 22,508 land-based and 7,290 seafloor clean-ups and surveys across 116 and 118 countries, respectively. we found debris hotspots for different items span numerous countries across all continents. this demonstrates that the debris problem is global and heterogeneous, pointing to the transboundary nature of the issue and necessitating sub-national approaches to implementing effective solutions. food and beverage packaging items, predominantly made from single-use plastics, accounted for much of the debris. hotspots of individual debris items were differentially driven by socioeconomic factors. in general, total debris counts increased with the value of infrastructure, and decreased with national wealth. highly polluted sites occurred in high-infrastructure, low-wealth locations such as athens, greece; tuni#%-.08;=>?aj��ʻʻʩ��wobtf9thj�5�ojqj^jo(h�h�h�h�5�ojqj^jh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(hm8x5�cjojqj^jajh 2e5�cjojqj^jaj#h�h�h�h�5�cjojqj^jajh�h�5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj h$-�5�cjojqj^jajo(#h�h�h�h�5�cjojqj^jaj>?@� ��1]��v��5ju$v$�$-%� � ��gd�psgd)w�gd$?�gdto�gd�l$gd%j,gdu<�gd�"�$a$gdt4�� 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authors: giacomo fedele, camila i. donatti, ivan bornacelly, david g. hole. abstract: understanding where people depend the most on natural resources for their basic human needs is crucial for planning conservation and development interventions. for some people, nature is a direct source of food, clean water, and energy through subsistence uses. however, a high direct dependency on nature for basic needs makes people particularly sensitive to changes in climate, land cover, and land tenure. based on more than 5 million household interviews conducted in 85 tropical countries, we identified where people highly depend on nature for their basic needs. our results show that 1.2 billion people, or 30% of the population across tropical countries, are highly dependent on nature. in places where people highly depend on nature for their basic needs, nature-based strategies that protect, restore or sustainably manage ecosystems must be carefully designed to promote inclusive human development 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