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volume 42, issue 7, july 2022
1. title: special series: the social amplification of risk framework: new perspectives.
authors: cox, tony; lowrie, karen.
abstract: for over three decades, the social amplification of risk (sarf) framework made famous in risk analysis by the work of roger kasperson and others has proved useful to many researchers investigating how perceptions of risk and resulting behaviors are shaped by psychological, social, institutional, and cultural processes. it integrates an early warning index system for reduced production with a bayesian network (bn) model for process modeling and a multilayer neural network model for predicting economic losses. although oil and gas production is mature compared to wind farm technology, oil and gas reservoir production from new fields can also be challenging to forecast.
2. title: the social amplification of risk framework: new perspectives.
authors: kasperson, roger e.; webler, thomas; ram, bonnie; sutton, jeannette.
abstract: several decades have elapsed since the introduction in 1988 of the social amplification of risk framework (sarf) by researchers from clark university and decision research. sarf was offered as an umbrella under which social, psychological, and cultural theories of risk could be integrated and thereby supplement technical risk analyses. some critics suggest that sarf cannot be tested thus, the framework is useful, at most, as a post hoc analysis of some kinds of risks. others counter that predictability is not required for a framework to be useful and that sarf is an effective tool in organizing data related to public perceptions, values, and behaviors. it can also be used to design more effective risk communication and public engagement strategies. sarf also suggests how to conceptually view the dynamics of social media channels, despite the fact that sarf was developed before the explosion of global digital platforms. the papers in this special issue consider developments, refinements, critiques, contributions, extensions of the approach to new risk issues, as well as the findings and hypotheses that have grown out of what is now close to three decades of empirical research. this introductory paper provides background on sarf, presents a literature review since 2003, introduces the contributions to this issue, and highlights several areas for future research.
3. title: the social amplification of risk framework: a normative perspective on trust?
authors: bearth, angela; siegrist, michael.
abstract: public trust is being lamented as the central victim of our new, digital information environment, a notion that is depicted in labeling our society as "posttruth" or "posttrust." within this article, we aim to call this deficit view of public trust into question and kindle a more positive outlook in future research. for this, we utilize the social amplification of risk framework to discuss trust as an inherent aspect of social interactions and to question the frameworks' normative approach to public trust and risk perception. utilizing a literature review of prior studies that investigated trust within the structure of sarf and a case study on the impacts of fukushima on public trust in nuclear energy, we would like to argue that the current normative "trust deficit model" should be overcome and future risk research should increasingly focus on the opportunities of the digital informational environment for risk communication.
4. title: risk attenuation and amplification in the u.s. opioid crisis.
authors: cantor, robin; bates, heather; mackoul, claire.
abstract: the evolution of risk identification and ultimately the public and private responses that have become known collectively as the "opioid crisis" is an important case study in risk management due to the reach and magnitude of its impacts. this article examines a number of "signals" related to opioid risks using the social amplification of risk framework (sarf) to investigate a limited set of public sector activities and policy responses. we evaluate whether the sarf presents an effective lens to examine the serious shortcomings of risk management of opioid use, which has a history of risk attenuation and, more recently, evidence of risk amplification. our goal in this article is limited to addressing "goodness of fit" of the sarf as a descriptive tool. we consider whether the sarf effectively reveals important gaps in public risk management responses for the opioid example and other similarly situated societal risk problems. applying sarf supports that its suggested relationship between risk signals and inappropriate attenuated public response does generate useful insights into regulatory efficacy for examples of public risk management. similar such conclusions about inappropriate public responses stemming from the amplification factors are less supported because, in this case, the risk is, and continues to be, large. overall, we find that the sarf's particular focus on the signaling function of risk information performs best as an organizational aid to study historical information rather than as a predictive tool for determining inappropriate risk management responses.
5. title: vaccines and the social amplification of risk.
authors: larson, heidi j.; lin, leesa; goble, rob.
abstract: in 2019, the world health organization (who) named "vaccine hesitancy" one of the top 10 threats to global health. shortly afterward, the covid 19 pandemic emerged as the world's predominant health concern. covid 19 vaccines of several types have been developed, tested, and partially deployed with remarkable speed; vaccines are now the primary control measure and hope for a return to normalcy. however, hesitancy concerning these vaccines, along with resistance to masking and other control measures, remains a substantial obstacle. the previous waves of vaccine hesitancy that led to the who threat designation, together with recent covid 19 experience, provide a window for viewing new forms of social amplification of risk (sar). not surprisingly, vaccines provide fertile ground for questions, anxieties, concerns, and rumors. these appear in new globalized hyperconnected communications landscapes and in the context of complex human (social, economic, and political) systems that exhibit evolving concerns about vaccines and authorities. we look at drivers, impacts, and implications for vaccine initiatives in several recent historical examples and in the current efforts with covid 19 vaccination. findings and insights were drawn from the vaccine confidence project's decade long monitoring of media and social media and its related research efforts. the trends in vaccine confidence and resistance have implications for updating the social amplification of risk framework (sarf); in turn, sarf has practical implications for guiding efforts to alleviate vaccine hesitancy and to mitigate harms from intentional and unintentional vaccine scares.
6. title: social amplification of risks and the clean energy transformation: elaborating on the four attributes of information.
authors: ram, bonnie; webler, thomas.
abstract: the social amplification of risk framework (sarf) was developed to help comprehend how emerging contributions about the psychological, social, and cultural dimensions of risk could work in unison to impact decision making about risk. the framework proposed that risks are amplified or attenuated by interested parties employing different rhetorical strategies to give information about risk a certain "spin." the original literature identified four "attributes of information." however, despite the longevity of the framework, these have not been explicated in detail. here we add depth and clarity by examining how amplification stations send risk signals that amplify or attenuate risk by emphasizing these different attributes of information. drawing on a wealth of qualitative data from two case studies of offshore wind turbine siting off the coasts of maryland and delaware and guided by an extensive literature review, we reveal the strategies interested parties are using to influence siting decisions and risk management. the paper explores the usefulness of sarf in organizing qualitative information and sharpening insights on participatory risk governance and the nuances of public responses to a relatively new low carbon technology. the authors conclude that the framework is valuable for analyzing stakeholder information while also recognizing limitations that may be addressed with some targeted future research.
7. title: risk amplification and attenuation as communication strategies in climate adaptation in urban areas.
authors: dow, kirstin; tuler, seth.
abstract: climate risks are motivating adaptation with local municipal actors becoming key participants in a complex web of climate risk communication. some cities have created civil service positions focused on climate resilience. we conducted interviews with six such individuals in four u.s. atlantic coast cities to investigate how they think about and negotiate communication challenges associated with implementation of climate resilience strategies. we grounded our study in the social amplification of risk framework (sarf), which despite its longevity and wide usage has rarely been used to understand the role of government actors. we found substantial complexity in how these government representatives develop both amplifying and attenuating communication strategies as they often simultaneously reach multiple audiences holding different perspectives. they are familiar with and employ risk communication practices. however, they report needing to modify their efforts as climate adaptation issues and goals evolve over time, and experiment in situations, such as discussions of retreat, where established communication practices provide insufficient guidance. in order to develop a deeper understanding of the governmental risk communication actors, we suggest four potential avenues for taking advantage of the strengths of sarf as a framework for connecting and integrating with other models and theories. we also propose several directions for research based on the challenges these practitioners are finding in their work to facilitate adaptation to climate risks. the activity of government actors is rich in its applied risk communication practice and its challenges offer new questions to expand our thinking about the sarf and risk communication more broadly.
8. title: social perception of systemic risks.
authors: schweizer, pia johanna; goble, robert; renn, ortwin.
abstract: the article distinguishes between two types of risks: conventional and systemic risks. conventional risks can be contained in space and time, follow linear cause�effect relationships and can be addressed with effective and pointed interventions into the cause�effect chain. systemic risks, however, are characterized by high complexity, transboundary effects, stochastic relationships, nonlinear cause�effect patterns with tipping points, and are often associated with less public attention than they require. the article addresses the reasons why systemic risks seem to be attenuated in public perception. the article goes on to consider how the social amplification of risk framework is useful in the context of systemic risks and describes needed extensions of that framework. it identifies practical tools for assessing the significance of perceptions for systemic risk situations. finally, it argues that a graphic representation and simulation of evolving systemic risks and potential countermeasures as well as a participatory deliberative approach of inclusive risk governance are suitable governance strategies for preventing, mitigating, or managing systemic risks.
9. title: but they told us it was safe! carbon dioxide removal, fracking, and ripple effects in risk perceptions.
authors: cox, emily; pidgeon, nick; spence, elspeth.
abstract: reaching net zero for global greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2050 will require a portfolio of new technologies and approaches, potentially requiring direct removal and sequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide using negative emissions technologies (nets). since energy and climate systems are fundamentally interconnected it is important that we understand the impacts of policy decisions and their associated controversies in other related technologies and sectors. using a secondary analysis of data from a series of deliberative workshops conducted with lay publics in the united kingdom, we suggest that perceptions of co2 removal technologies were negatively impacted by risk perceptions and recent policy decisions surrounding shale gas and fracking. using the social amplification of risk framework, we argue that heightened risk perceptions have extended via "ripple effects" across these technologies. participants' attitudes were underpinned by deeper misgivings regarding the actions and motives of experts and policymakers; a pervasive discourse of "but they told us it was safe" regarding fracking negatively affected people's trust in assurances of the safety and efficacy of co2 removal. this has the potential to undermine attempts to build societal agreement around future deployment of co2 removal technologies.
10. title: knowledge, social influences, perceived risks and benefits, and cultural values explain the public's decisions related to prudent antibiotic use.
authors: visschers, vivianne h. m.; feck, vanessa; herrmann, anne.
abstract: people should use antibiotics (ab) prudently to mitigate antibiotic resistance (abr). previous studies and, subsequently, interventions on abr have focused mainly on improving public awareness and knowledge. we investigated a comprehensive theory based explanatory model to understand the public's decision making regarding prudent ab use, based on, among others, the theory of planned behavior. in a cross sectional online survey, the psychological determinants of people's decisions about prudent ab use were examined in a sample of 1,228 swiss adults. the questionnaire assessed respondents' demand for ab, willingness to adopt measures that prevent the need for ab, perceived risks of abr, perceived benefits of ab, attitudes and social influences regarding ab, knowledge of ab and abr, and cultural values. mokken scale analysis revealed three types of knowledge: knowledge of the functioning of ab, of abr, and of preventive measures. structural equation modeling indicated that respondents' demand for ab was mostly predicted by social influences, perceived benefits of ab, and knowledge of ab functioning. willingness to prevent ab use was mainly related to conservative values, perceived risks of abr, negative attitudes toward ab, and knowledge of preventive measures. our study suggests that the provision of information about ab and preventive measures is a first step toward changing people's decisions related to prudent ab use. future interventions that additionally utilize cultural values to convey important messages and target additional factors, such as social influences, the risks of abr, and the benefits of cautious ab use, can be more successful in promoting prudent ab use.
11. title: is crisis and emergency risk communication as effective as vaccination for preventing virus diffusion? measuring the impacts of failure in cerc with mers cov outbreak in south korea.
authors: ho young yoon
abstract: this study measured the impacts of failure in crisis and emergency risk communication (cerc) during the outbreak of a contagious corona viral disease. the study measured the impacts by the number of individuals and hospitals exposed to the virus. the 2015 middle east respiratory syndrome (mers) outbreak in south korea was used to investigate the consequences of cerc failure, where the names of hospitals exposed to mers cov were withheld from the public during the early stage of virus diffusion. empirical data analyses and simulated model tests were conducted. the findings of analyses and tests show that an early announcement of the hospital names and publicizing the necessary preventive measures could have reduced the rate of infection by approximately 85% and the number of contaminated healthcare facilities by 39% at maximum. this level of reduction is comparable to that of vaccination and of social distancing.
12. title: modeling epistemic uncertainty in offshore wind farm production capacity to reduce risk.
authors: zitrou, athena; bedford, tim; walls, lesley.
abstract: financial stakeholders in offshore wind farm projects require predictions of energy production capacity to better manage the risk associated with investment decisions prior to construction. predictions for early operating life are particularly important due to the dual effects of cash flow discounting and the anticipated performance growth due to experiential learning. we develop a general marked point process model for the times to failure and restoration events of farm subassemblies to capture key uncertainties affecting performance. sources of epistemic uncertainty are identified in design and manufacturing effectiveness. the model then captures the temporal effects of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties across subassemblies to predict the farm availability informed relative capacity (maximum generating capacity given the technical state of the equipment). this performance measure enables technical performance uncertainties to be linked to the cost of energy generation. the general modeling approach is contextualized and illustrated for a prospective offshore wind farm. the production capacity uncertainties can be decomposed to assess the contribution of epistemic uncertainty allowing the value of gathering information to reduce risk to be examined.
13. title: a connectionist model for dynamic economic risk analysis of hydrocarbons production systems.
authors: mamudu, abbas; khan, faisal; zendehboudi, sohrab; adedigba, sunday.
abstract: this study presents a connectionist model for dynamic economic risk evaluation of reservoir production systems. the proposed dynamic economic risk modeling strategy combines evidence based
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14. title: spatial risk factors for pillar 1 covid 19 excess cases and mortality in rural eastern england, uk.
authors: brainard, julii; rushton, steve; winters, tim; hunter, paul r.
abstract: understanding is still developing about spatial risk factors for covid 19 infection or mortality. this is a secondary analysis of patient records in a confined area of eastern england, covering persons who tested positive for sars cov 2 through end may 2020, including dates of death and residence area. we obtained residence area data on air quality, deprivation levels, care home bed capacity, age distribution, rurality, access to employment centers, and population density. we considered these covariates as risk factors for excess cases and excess deaths in the 28 days after confirmation of positive covid status relative to the overall case load and death recorded for the study area as a whole. we used the conditional autoregressive besag york mollie model to investigate the spatial dependency of cases and deaths allowing for a poisson error structure. structural equation models were applied to clarify relationships between predictors and outcomes. excess case counts or excess deaths were both predicted by the percentage of population age 65 years, care home bed capacity and less rurality: older population and more urban areas saw excess cases. greater deprivation did not correlate with excess case counts but was significantly linked to higher mortality rates after infection. neither excess cases nor excess deaths were predicted by population density, travel time to local employment centers, or air quality indicators. only 66% of mortality was explained by locally high case counts. higher deprivation clearly linked to higher covid 19 mortality separate from wider community prevalence and other spatial risk factors.
15. title: a markov decision process approach for cost benefit analysis of infrastructure resilience upgrades.
authors: zhu, qianru; leibowicz, benjamin d.
abstract: as climate change threatens to cause increasingly frequent and severe natural disasters, decisionmakers must consider costly investments to enhance the resilience of critical infrastructures. evaluating these potential resilience improvements using traditional cost benefit analysis (cba) approaches is often problematic because disasters are stochastic and can destroy even hardened infrastructure, meaning that the lifetimes of investments are themselves uncertain. in this article, we develop a novel markov decision process (mdp) model for cba of infrastructure resilience upgrades that offer prevention (reduce the probability of a disaster) and/or protection (mitigate the cost of a disaster) benefits. stochastic features of the model include disaster occurrences and whether or not a disaster terminates the effective life of an earlier resilience upgrade. from our mdp model, we derive analytical expressions for the decisionmaker's willingness to pay (wtp) to enhance infrastructure resilience, and conduct a comparative static analysis to investigate how the wtp varies with the fundamental parameters of the problem. following this theoretical portion of the article, we demonstrate the applicability of our mdp framework to real world decision making by applying it to two case studies of electric utility infrastructure hardening. the first case study considers elevating a flood prone substation and the second assesses upgrading transmission structures to withstand high winds. results from these two case studies show that assumptions about the value of lost load during power outages and the distribution of customer types significantly influence the wtp for the resilience upgrades and are material to the decisions of whether or not to implement them.
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