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��ࡱ�>�� u �r�ބbjbj�n�n2��a��a�| ��""��8�|u$��pl��qpspspspspspsp$>r��t<wp��wp��4�p��qp�qp��q�ֿ��[l=p�p0�p0u�:0un00u�em��wpwp�6��p��0u��"qs: world development volume 148, issue 12, december 2021 1. title: preferences of vulnerable social groups for ecosystem-based adaptation to flood risk in central vietnam authors: l.c. hagedoorn, p. bubeck, p.hudson, l.m. brander, m.pham, r. lasage. abstract: developing countries are increasingly impacted by floods, especially in asia. traditional flood risk management, using structural measures such as levees, can have negative impacts on the livelihoods of social groups that are more vulnerable. ecosystem-based adaptation (eba) provides a complementary approach that is potentially more inclusive of groups that are commonly described as more vulnerable, such as the poor and women. however, there is a lack of disaggregated and quantitative information on the potential of eba to support vulnerable groups of society. this paper provides a quantitative analysis of the differences in vulnerability to flooding as well as preferences for eba benefits across income groups and gender. we use data collected through a survey of households in urban and rural central vietnam which included a discrete choice experiment on preferences for ecosystem services. a total of 1,010 households was surveyed during 2017 through a random sampling approach. preferences are measured in monetary and non-monetary terms to avoid issues that may arise from financial constraints faced by respondents and especially the more vulnerable groups. our results reveal that lower income households and women are overall more vulnerable than their counterparts and have stronger preferences for the majority of the eba benefits, including flood protection, seafood abundance, tourism, and recreation suitability. these findings strongly indicate that eba is indeed a promising tool to support groups of society that are especially vulnerable to floods. these results provide crucial insights for future implementation of eba projects and for the integration of eba with goals targeted at complying with the sendai framework and sustainable development goals. 2. title: missing women in india: gender-specific effects of early-life rainfall shocks authors: jagadeesh sivadasan, wenjian xu. abstract: we link over a century of monthly precipitation data (1911�2011) to the population by gender and age at the district level in the 1991, 2001, and 2011 indian censuses to study how early-life (around birth year) rainfall shocks affect cohorts� population sex ratios. using an approach (from bhalme and mooley 1980) that generates separate indices for excess (wet) as well as negative (dry) rainfall shocks and adjusts for the level of persistence in monthly shocks, we find that both too much and too little rainfall are associated with lower relative female population. the results are robust to using alternative rainfall shock indices and different sets of fixed effects. we estimate about 1.156 million missing women due to differential effects of early-life rainfall shocks, which is about 3.01% of the total estimate of 38.46 million missing women (average over 1990, 2000 and 2010) from bongaarts and guilmoto (2015). our results suggest the need for targeting aid for weather shocks towards girls, especially in regions with indicators suggesting stronger male preference. 3. title: how important is culture to understand political protest? authors: paolo li donni, maria marino, christian welzel. abstract: the literature considers nonviolent protests among the most important predictors of transitions towards democracy and democratic reforms. this study addresses the conditionsmaking countries more likely to experience nonviolent instead of violent forms of protest. while the literature emphasizes economic and political predictors of protest at the country level, we expand the study of nonviolent-vs-violent protest by incorporating cultural predictors. to do so, we use a newly developed time-pooled cross-sectional database covering an established set of orientations from the world values survey, known as �emancipative values�. estimating the prevalence of these values at the country level as a time-varying predictor of nonviolent-vs-violent protests, we present the first comprehensively longitudinal analysis of the determinants of protests. taking into account time-varying unobserved heterogeneity, persistence, the excess number of zeros and over-dispersion in protest event data, we find that emancipative values are a significant and positive predictor of the countries� nonviolent protest levels, yet not violent protest levels. 4. title: what drives social returns to education? a meta-analysis authors: ying cui, pedro s. martins. abstract: education can generate important externalities that contribute towards economic growth and convergence. in this paper, we study such externalities and their drivers by conducting the first meta-analysis of the social returns to education literature. we analyse over 1,000 estimates from 32 journal articles published since 1993, covering 15 countries of different levels of development. our results indicate that: (1) there is publication bias (but not citation bias) in the literature; (2) spillovers slow down with economic development; (3) tertiary schooling and schooling dispersion increase spillovers; and (4) spillovers are smaller under fixed-effects and iv estimators but larger when measured at the firm level. 5. title: do remedial activities using math workbooks improve student learning? empirical evidence from scaled-up interventions in niger authors: takao maruyama, takashi kurosaki. abstract: throughout the world approximately 380 million children of primary school age are not reaching the minimum proficiency levels in mathematics. this learning crisis is especially acute in sub-saharan africa, where many children are not mastering numbers and the four basic operations. in niger, a package of interventions that included training for school management committees and the distribution of math workbooks was scaled up by the government. the interventions targeted approximately 310,000 students in the 1st to 4th grades in around 3,500 public primary schools. the scaled-up interventions aimed to help the students improve their math learning through extra-curricular remedial activities which they participated in over a three-month period. due to budget constraints, the distribution of math workbooks was limited to those students from 1st to 4th grades among the six grades in primary education. focusing on the difference in the intervention between the 4th and 5th grade students, this study investigated the impact of the package of interventions on student math learning using three-round survey data. our study finds that the average impact of the interventions on math learning outcomes is estimated to be 0.36 to 0.38 standard deviations. the impact is larger for students with lower baseline scores. the case of niger suggests that once children have a chance to learn in a manner that matches their learning levels, they can improve their math learning. 6. title: do macroeconomic fluctuations at destination matter in determining migrants� return decisions? authors: smriti tiwari. abstract: although a significant portion of migration is temporary, comprehension of factors at destination that can shorten or extend migrants� stays abroad is still limited. one such unexplored factor is the macroeconomic fluctuation at the destination. are migrants� return functions of macroeconomic fluctuations at the destination countries? the question is explored empirically using the variation in gross domestic product per capita growth rates between 2000 and 2009 in the multitude of destinations that nepali migrants work. return of nepali migrants increases as the economy at the destination expands relative to that at home. additionally, the magnitude and timing of the response vary respectively across foreign earning distribution and contexts. 7. title: economic efficiency versus social equity: the productivity challenge for rice production in a �greying� rural vietnam authors: hoa-thi-minh nguyen, huong do, tom kompas. abstract: increasing agricultural productivity is often deemed necessary to enhance rural income and ultimately narrow the urban�rural disparity in transitional economies. however, the objectives of social equity and economic efficiency can contradict each other, especially in the context of fierce competition for resources between agriculture and non-agricultural sectors and given the inherently and largely redundant and unskilled aging rural population that often occurs during the economic transition to a market economy. we investigate the case of vietnam during its high growth period (2000�2016), over which the country introduced policies to increase efficiency in rice production and income for farmers. contrary to expectations, we find a substantial fall in the terms of trade for rice, indicating a regression in farm income. this fall in the terms of trade did not enhance technical change, as seen in other countries, and only marginally improved technical efficiency in most regions. the reason stems from vietnam�s limited investment in scientific research and development and policies that restrict farmers� decision-making power in production, among others. we further examine the causes of inefficiency using data from two household surveys in 2004 and 2014 (with plot-level information) and semi-structured interviews with farmers in 2016�2017. the high ratio of aging farmworkers who are unable to find alternative employment during the transition emerges as an essential impediment to increases in rice productivity, in addition to previously documented land-use-related issues. this demographic feature, along with government equity-targeting measures, hinders the farm amalgamation progress, further limiting efforts to enhance efficiency. thus, the goals of economic efficiency and social equity do indeed appear to be contradictory features of vietnam�s rice policies, posing a significant development challenge for the country�s current and likely future progress. 8. title: measuring capabilities: taking people�s values seriously authors: tadashi hirai. abstract: people�s values are fundamental to development and �the capability approach� in particular. nonetheless, values have not been considered when capabilities have been measured with a focus on achievements along established dimensions. the main purpose of this article is thus to introduce two new measures: the capability index and the gap index. by combining two existing scales, the ocap-18 from the capability approach and the aspirations index from positive psychology, the new measures reflect not only the level of attainment but also the value level of each capability dimension. thus, the capability index can be calculated by weighting the attainment level according to the value level, while the gap index can be calculated by subtracting the attainment level from the value level. in line with the methods of the original human development index, the mathematical formulation is kept as simple as possible in order to facilitate public discussion. by using data from bric countries, the present study not only demonstrates the possibility of measuring capabilities in a more precise but less complicated manner; it also reveals significant gaps between the levels of value and attainment along some capability dimensions, leading to challenge the concept of adaptive preferences. while the new capability index can be used as a more accurate way of measuring capabilities than was possible with existing measures, the new gap index can be used as an effective way of targeting the dimensions of capability that would otherwise lead people to become frustrated with their lives. accordingly, the study underlines the significance of the capability approach to development and, more broadly, makes policymaking more human-centred by taking people�s values seriously. 9. title: dynamic pathways of barriers and opportunities for food security and climate adaptation in southern mali authors: udita sanga, amadou sidib�, laura schmitt olabisi. abstract: barriers to food security and climate adaptation operate in complex and dynamic ways but are often perceived as static impediments to be overcome. in this study, we apply systems thinking for the assessment of barriers in agricultural decision-making for food security and climate adaptation. using a mixed-method approach of participatory simulation game design and causal loop diagrams, we explore the dynamic pathways through which barriers inhibit farmers from achieving food security and climate adaptation in southern mali. results show that the key barriers in the region are financial, land, and climate-related barriers including unavailability of formal credit sources, high input prices, inadequate land access and ownership rights, time and labor constraints in collective vs individual plots, and climate risks such as early and late season droughts, high temperature, excessive rainfall, water scarcity, and pest incidences. these barriers operate in complex, interdependent, and dynamic ways where factors that act as enablers in one context can also function as barriers in another context. we see such interdependencies in three cases: i) access to interlocked credit and loans for cotton cultivation acts as enablers of income generation for male farmers but become barriers to female farmers who do not cultivate cotton ii) land ownership and land use rights for male farmers act as enablers for cultivation of income-generating cash and food crops but acts as a barrier for female farmers by way of intra-household labor dynamics within collective plots iii) increase in land allocation to cotton and maize cultivation acts as enablers for increased household income but becomes a barrier to food security due to higher vulnerability to climate risks. assessment of causal loop diagrams identified deep and shallow leverage points. policies and interventions that focused on input subsidies and credit facilities are shallow leverage points where incremental changes will only lead to small improvements in farmers� livelihoods. policies that support improved access and ownership of land to female farmers are deep leverage points that can potentially shift the dominant cropping pattern to more diversified and climate-resilient production. 10. title: fostering savings by commitment: evidence from a quasi-natural experiment at the small enterprise foundation in south africa authors: lucia dalla pellegrina, angela de michele, giorgio di maio, paolo landoni. abstract: we studied the effects of a pilot project that strengthened savings incentive mechanisms. the project was established by the small enterprise foundation (sef), a leading microfinance institution based in south africa. the program introduced a savings stimulus in the form of a goal card: clients subscribing to this (non-coercive) tool were required to identify a savings goal and to commit to regular payments to reach it. the experiment had a quasi-natural approach as it was implemented by sef in non-randomly selected locations. difference-in-differences estimates show improved savings habits among those of the foundation�s customers who were involved in the program, compared to the counterfactual that are identified using propensity score matching. the effect of the program manifested in its second semester, suggesting a persistent change of habits but a slow accumulation of savings. we conclude that asking microcredit customers to identify a savings goal and commit to a regular savings amount to achieve it is a promising savings incentive mechanism. 11. title: political donations, public procurement and government efficiency authors: vitezslav titl, kristof de witte, benny geys. abstract: public procurement markets are worth 10�15% of global gdp. recent empirical evidence suggests that firms� political donations can induce important distortions in the allocation of public procurement contracts. in this article, we employ a non-parametric efficiency model to study the implications of such distortions for the regional governments� efficiency. using a unique dataset covering the czech regions over the 2007�2017 period, we find that the efficiency of public good provision is lower when a larger share of public procurement contracts is awarded to firms donating to the party in power (�party donors�) � even when we account for quality differences in public goods provision. we link the dependence on politically connected firms to the institutional design of the procurement allocation process (i.e. the use of less restrictive and less open allocation procedures), which helps explaining the mechanics behind the observed decrease in efficiency. 12. title: the nutritional benefits of cash transfers in humanitarian crises: evidence from yemen authors: sikandra kurdi. abstract: at the world humanitarian summit in 2016 the long-standing divide between humanitarian and development approaches was challenged with a call for responses that both meet immediate needs and protect human capital for eventual recovery. in this regard, the use of cash transfers in humanitarian settings is an emerging trend; however, it has been limited by a lack of evidence on how well cash transfers improve nutritional outcomes given the challenges of conducting rigorous evaluations in a crisis context. this study makes use of a cluster randomized control trial that was left in place when a pilot cash-plus intervention evolved during the civil conflict into a major program within the yemen emergency crisis response program. the results provide uniquely rigorous evidence of the potential for long-run nutritional benefits of cash transfers in humanitarian crisis settings. the �cash for nutrition� intervention provides cash transfers as well as nutritional training to targeted households with young children in yemen in the context of what is considered the world�s worst humanitarian crisis. differences-in-differences estimates indicate that the intervention significantly increased purchases of non-staple foods which translated into large positive impacts on child dietary diversity scores. impacts on consumption patterns and dietary diversity are significant for the full sample and strongest among the poorest tercile of households where the transfers are largest relative to baseline household food budgets. in this poorest sub-group we also find large and statistically significant program impacts on height-for-age z-scores of 0.3. these results support the increased use of cash transfers and provide a benchmark for comparison with more traditional food distribution and supplementation strategies for supporting child nutrition in protracted crisis contexts. 13. title: interplay of governance elements and their effects on deforestation in tropical landscapes: quantitative insights from ecuador authors: richard fischer, fabian tamayo cordero, tatiana ojeda luna, rub�n ferrer velasco, maria dedecker, bolier torres, lukas giessen, sven g�nter. abstract: after state-centered and market-centered approaches have driven international development cooperation activities in previous decades, improved governance has now come into the focus as a means to help reversing global trends of tropical deforestation. yet, �good governance� remains a normative, broad and often underspecified concept consisting of a wide range of elements and implicit value judgements. specific knowledge is missing on the relative importance of single elements, on their interdependencies and their specific effects. following an analytical approach, we aimed to investigate if single governance elements affect each other and whether they relate to decreasing deforestation. we conducted a quantitative field study in twelve selected landscapes across 160,000 ha of tropical lowland forest in ecuador. we mapped governance arrangements and land use in participatory exercises. the performance of single governance elements including tenure, forest management practices, law enforcement, institutions, and participation was quantified based on the governance assessment framework of the world resource institute. we assessed context information and used satellite based deforestation data. principal component analysis showed that all governance elements loaded positively on the first axis. this shows that specific governance elements acted conjointly. they are in general not antagonistic, but interact positively and might reinforce each other. policy and development work may therefore focus on a smaller number of well-selected governance elements. high performance of specific governance elements, in particular tenure and participation was linked to reduced deforestation. this supports the notion of a number of governance elements as being indeed �good� for low deforestation. this functional understanding draws a more differentiated picture for single governance elements and supports outcome oriented decisions instead of value-oriented principles that underlie �good governance�. direct deforestation drivers such as agriculture and infrastructure explained larger shares of deforestation as compared to governance. a number of conclusions and recommendations for the specific governance situation in tropical lowland forests of ecuador are given. 14. title: ngo-state relations in the monitoring of illegal forest logging and wildlife trafficking in central africa authors: aurelian mbzibain, teodyl nkuintchua tchoudjen. abstract: independent forest monitoring (ifm) by non-governmental organizations (ngos) emerged in the late 1990s as a forest governance mechanism in response to rising forest crime in asia and central africa. ifm is the use of an independent third party that, by agreement or not with state authorities, provides an assessment of legal compliance, and observation of and guidance on official forest law enforcement systems. the success of ifm by ngos is therefore, inextricably linked to the nature of the relationship with state authorities yet this relationship has neither been explored nor understood. there is scant empirical research on this mechanism globally. this paper addresses these gaps through participatory observation, documentary analysis and interviews with leaders of five ngos at the forefront of forest and wildlife monitoring in central africa. using najam (2000) 4-c framework, we find complex and fluid relationships ranging from cooperation, complementarity, confrontation and instrumentalization. complementarity and confrontation emerge as the most important relationship types while cooperation is the least prevalent relationship. in response to challenges in the relationships, ngos use a repertoire of strategies and tactics to influence the state in pursuit of their goals. unfortunately, significant dependence on a limited stream of intermittent external donor funding and lack of clearly articulated influence and advocacy strategies, limit the potential contribution of ifm to the fight against forest and wildlife crime in central africa. the implications for ifm organisations, national governments and donor agencies are discussed. 15. title: stepping up versus stepping out: on the outcomes and drivers of two alternative climate change adaptation strategies of smallholders authors: md. mofakkarul islam, md. asaduzzaman sarker, md. abdullah al mamun, md. mamun-ur-rashid, debashis roy. abstract: which of the two climate change adaptation strategies � adjusting or improving farming (defined as stepping up) versus reducing or exiting farming (defined as stepping out) � provides better developmental outcomes for smallholder farmers? are the drivers of these two strategies different? do the outcomes and drivers vary according to farmland holding size? we investigated these unanswered questions, inspired primarily by a widespread but unverified suggestion that stepping out of farming can be a better option for smallholders. we utilised recent survey data from over eight hundred smallholder households located in climatic hazard-prone areas in bangladesh. we applied a holistic driver-strategy-outcome analytical framework and rigorous statistical methods, including index-based data aggregation, and structural equation modelling with �mediation� and �moderation� analyses. contrary to widespread speculations, we found that stepping out had a large negative effect on smallholders� livelihood outcomes; while stepping up had a moderate, but positive effect. the natural-environmental drivers of stepping up and stepping out were similar; however, the psychological-institutional drivers of each differed, with the same factor acting as a driver for one strategy whilst as a deterrent for the other. we found significant �mediatory� effects of both the adaptation strategies on outcomes as well as significant �moderation� effects of farmland holding size on the drivers and outcomes, with the positive effect of stepping up observed for smallholders owing lands of <2.5 acres only. we call for relevant policies and interventions to exercise caution in promoting smallholders� exit from agriculture, and to adopt appropriate mitigating measures to manage such a transition. moreover, smallholder agricultural development initiatives should not discount even the �smallest of smallholders� and support them through �diverse and complementary innovations� as well as �tailored� institutional support services, especially for those living in proximity to hazard hotspots. 16. title: can fruit and vegetable aggregation systems better balance improved producer livelihoods with more equitable distribution? authors: g.s. cooper, b. shankar, k.m. rich, n.n. ratna, m.j. alam, n. singh, s. kadiyalag. abstract: the need for food systems to generate sustainable and equitable benefits for all is a global imperative. however, whilst ample evidence exists linking smallholder farmer coordination and aggregation (i.e. the collective transport and marketing of produce on behalf of multiple farmers) to improved market participation and farmer incomes, the extent to which interventions that aim to improve farmer market engagement may co-develop equitable consumer benefits remains uncertain. this challenge is pertinent to the horticultural systems of south asia, where the increasing purchasing power of urban consumers, lengthening urban catchments, underdeveloped rural infrastructures and inadequate local demands combine to undermine the delivery of fresh fruits and vegetables to smaller, often rural or semi-rural markets serving nutritionally insecure populations. to this end, we investigate the potential for aggregation to be developed to increase fruit and vegetable delivery to these neglected smaller markets, whilst simultaneously improving farmer returns. using an innovative system dynamics modelling approach based on an aggregation scheme in bihar, india, we identify potential trade-offs between outcomes relating to farmers and consumers in smaller local markets. we find that changes to aggregation alone (i.e. scaling-up participation; subsidising small market transportation; mandating quotas for smaller markets) are unable to achieve significant improvements in smaller market delivery without risking reduced farmer participation in aggregation. contrastingly, combining aggregation with the introduction of market-based cold storage and measures that boost demand improves fruit and vegetable availability significantly in smaller markets, whilst avoiding farmer-facing trade-offs. critically, our study emphasises the benefits that may be attained from combining multiple nutrition-sensitive market interventions, and stresses the need for policies that narrow the fruit and vegetable cold storage deficits that exist away from more lucrative markets in developing countries. the future pathways and policy options discovered work towards making win�win futures for farmers and disadvantaged consumers a reality. 17. title: neglect paves the way for dispossession: the politics of �last frontiers� in brazil and myanmar authors: mairon g. bastos lima, laura kmoch. abstract: a convergence of factors creates a worrisome contemporary pattern of resource dispossession of local populations in developing countries. growing market demand for commodities, states� interest in expanding their fiscally fertile territories, and environmental conservation pressures have promoted resource frontiers, where locals all too frequently lose access to land, water and livelihoods. to add momentum and legitimize outsiders� agendas, such locations are sometimes framed as �last frontiers� � the final places of possibility. while various forms of resource �grabbing� have gained increased attention, we argue that a crucial dimension of frontier dynamics � neglect and its role in facilitating dispossession � warrants further study as it tends to be overlooked. drawing on the frontiers and political ecology literature, this article analyzes how neglect by state authorities, markets, and environmental organizations paves the way for dispossession in those landscapes. we compare two cases: the matopiba soy frontier in the savannas of brazil�s cerrado and the chin hills of western myanmar. our results show how neglect is critical to imaginatively frame regions as �empty� places of possibility, excluding local actors economically from development and politically from governance initiatives. we argue that neglect not only precedes but is an enduring feature of resource frontiers, and identify four consecutive phases: (i) pre-frontier abandonment, (ii) selective support to outsiders, (iii) overlooked harms to communities, and (iv) socially exclusive sustainability agendas. as environmental concerns gain increasing global salience, phase i sometimes leaps to phase iv as international actors pounce to control what they regard as �last frontiers� for conservation. we conclude that external actors� inaction enables local communities� dispossession as much as their actions. this raises critical policy and scholarly questions about actors' responsibility and accountability, not only for harms done but also for systematically failing to heed local actors� aspirations and needs. 18. title: gender and lpg use after government intervention in rural north india authors: sangita vyas, aashish gupta, nazar khalid. abstract: exposure to air pollution from cooking with solid fuels has important consequences for public health. this paper focuses on rural north india, where despite robust economic growth and government subsidies, the vast majority of households mainly use solid fuels. we draw on new qualitative and quantitative data collected in the context of a policy environment that dramatically expanded ownership of liquid petroleum gas (lpg) to examine why households are slow to adopt clean fuels in rural north india. we find that patriarchal gender norms and attitudes encourage the use of solid fuels in this region. north indian society confers low status to women, promotes women�s seclusion, and constrains women�s engagement in economic activities outside of the home. these beliefs encourage women to preserve gas, promote women�s work that facilitates the use of solid fuels, and hinder communication between the cook and the decision-maker regarding lpg refills. when rural north indian households use gas, it is frequently to facilitate the adherence to norms of seclusion that prevent women from leaving the home to collect solid fuels. in addition to expanding access and improving economic conditions, future research and policy interventions should pay careful attention to the gender norms and attitudes 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