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��ࡱ�>�� u �r��bjbj�n�n2��a��ae ��""��8�le��rl�� rrrrrrr$2t��v</rq��/r��4�r�� r�� r��r�ƞz��k(��q�r0�r�$wsr$w��0$w��n`��/r/r��r��$w��"qs: risk analysis volume 44, issue 2, february 2024 1. title: ingroup favoritism on perceived risk of infectious diseases authors: mei peng, xuejun bai abstract: humans live in social groups; thus, infectious diseases may threaten human health and safety. do individuals exhibit ingroup favoritism or ingroup devaluation when faced with varying risks of infectious diseases? we generated relatively realistic disease scenarios to examine this question. we reported the results from three experiments in which we tested individuals� perceived disease risk from ingroup and outgroup members under high- and low-risk conditions. experiment 1 used a realistic influenza scenario, and experiments 2 and 3 used a realistic scenario of exposure to coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19). all three experiments showed that perceived disease risk was significantly lower from ingroup members than from outgroup members and significantly lower in low-risk conditions than in high-risk conditions. furthermore, the perceived disease risk was significantly lower from ingroup members than from outgroup members in high-risk conditions but did not significantly differ in low-risk conditions, as in experiment 1's influenza scenario and experiment 2's covid-19 vaccination scenario. this suggests that ingroup favoritism is flexible. the results support ingroup favoritism and the functional flexibility principle in response to disease threats according to perceived disease risk. 2. title: comparative risk perception of the monkeypox outbreak and the monkeypox vaccine authors: janet z. yang abstract: based on survey data collected from a nationally representative sample (n = 1,000), this study applies the psychometric paradigm to demonstrate that the american public perceived the monkeypox outbreak as a more dreaded risk than the monkeypox vaccine, but they also viewed the monkeypox vaccine as a more unknown risk. these perceptions influenced their overall risk judgment toward the monkeypox outbreak, support for public health responses and government assistance measures, and likelihood to get vaccinated. contributing to research on risk perception, these findings indicate that the dread and unknown dimensions offer a more intricate assessment of risk perception beyond perceived susceptibility and perceived severity. guiding risk communication practice, these results suggest that it is important to highlight to the public that the monkeypox vaccine is a mature technology and getting vaccinated before exposure provides the best protection for high-risk populations. 3. title: risk tolerance as a complementary concept to risk perception of natural hazards: a conceptual review and application authors: carl c. anderson, mar moure, christina demski, fabrice g. renaud abstract: there is a longstanding assumption that if people perceive a risk as high, they will act to reduce it. in fact, research has shown a lack of consistently strong causal relations between risk perception (rp) and mitigative behavior�the so-called �risk perception paradox.� despite a recent increase in research on rp, individuals� risk tolerance (rt; or demand for risk reduction) only rarely appears as a consideration for explaining behavioral response to natural hazards. to address this research gap, we first systematically review relevant literature and find that rt has been directly assessed or operationalized using perceived thresholds related to costs and benefits of risk reduction measures, risk consequences, hazard characteristics, behavioral responses, or affective reactions. it is either considered a component or a result of rp. we then use survey data of individuals� rp, rt, and behavioral intention to assess relations among these variables. comparing across three european study sites, �behavioral intention� is assessed as the public's willingness to actively support the implementation of nature-based solutions to reduce disaster risk. a series of tests using regression models shows rt significantly explains variance in behavioral intention and significantly contributes additional explanatory power beyond rp in all three sites. in two sites, rt is also a significant partial mediator of the relation between rp and behavior. taken together, our findings demand further conceptual and empirical research on individuals� rt and its systematic consideration as a determinant for (in)action in response to natural hazards. 4. title: social identification and risk dynamics: how perceptions of (inter)personal and collective risk impact the adoption of covid-19 preventative behaviors authors: mark atkinson, fergus neville, evangelos ntontis, stephen reicher abstract: public adoption of preventative behaviors to reduce the transmission of covid-19 is crucial to managing the pandemic, and so it is vital to determine what factors influence the uptake of those behaviors. previous studies have identified covid-19 risk perceptions as a key factor, but this work has typically been limited both in assuming that risk means risk to the personal self, and in being reliant on self-reported data. drawing on the social identity approach, we conducted two online studies in which we investigated the effects of two different types of risk on preventative measure taking: risk to the personal self and risk to the collective self (i.e., members of a group with which one identifies). both studies involved behavioral measures using innovative interactive tasks. in study 1 (n = 199; data collected 27 may 2021), we investigated the effects of (inter)personal and collective risk on physical distancing. in study 2 (n = 553; data collected 20 september 2021), we investigated the effects of (inter)personal and collective risk on the speed at which tests are booked as covid-19 symptoms develop. in both studies, we find that perceptions of collective risk, but not perceptions of (inter)personal risk, influence the extent to which preventative measures are adopted. we discuss the implications both conceptually (as they relate to both the conceptualization of risk and social identity processes) and also practically (in terms of the implications for public health communications). 5. title: the influence of risk awareness and government trust on risk perception and preparedness for natural hazards authors: pamela c. cisternas, luis a. cifuentes, nicol�s c. bronfman, paula b. repetto abstract: risk perception is considered the primary motivator for taking preparedness actions. but people with prior experience and a high-risk perception are not necessarily more prepared. this relationship is even more complex when assessing preparedness levels for hazards with different characteristics. these inconsistent findings can be explained by how preparedness has been measured and the influence of other factors, such as trust and risk awareness. thus, the main goal of this study was to analyze the role of risk awareness and trust in authorities on risk perception and intention to prepare for natural hazards in a coastal city in chile. a representative sample of the city of concepci�n, located in the center-south zone of chile (n = 585), completed a survey. we measured risk awareness, risk perception, trust in authorities, and intention to prepare for two hazards: earthquakes/tsunamis and floods. through structural equation models, we tested five hypotheses. we found that the perception of risk maintained a direct and positive influence on the intention to prepare for both hazards. the results showed that awareness and risk perception influence the intention to prepare and should be considered different concepts. finally, trust did not significantly influence risk perception when faced with known hazards for the population. implications for understanding the relationship between risk perception and direct experience are discussed. 6. title: behaviorally segmented audiences for managing sunscreen chemical pollution risk in protected coastal natural resource areas authors: k. l. akerlof, jacqueline loevenich, sara melena, christine a. lipsky abstract: this audience segmentation of visitors at coastal parks in hawaii and north carolina addresses an emergent natural resource management concern and risk to aquatic ecosystems: sunscreen chemical pollution. four audiences were identified that correspond to different behavioral profiles: sunscreen protection tourists, multimodal sun protection tourists, in-state frequent park visitors, and frequent beachgoers who skip sunscreen. the second-largest audience, sunscreen protection tourists, represents 29% of visitors at cape lookout national seashore and 25% at kaloko-honokmhau national historical park. this group ranks of most concern for chemical pollution because they use sunscreen, but not typically mineral formulations or other methods such as protective clothing, and they have lower levels of sunscreen chemical issue awareness. the identification of similar audience segments across regions with differing cultural characteristics and sunscreen regulation status suggests the robustness of the model and its indicator variables, with implications for both environmental protection and public health. further, coastal visitors� interest in enacting pro-environmental sun protection behaviors during their next park or beach visit indicates the potential for natural resource managers to holistically address risks in both domains through targeted interventions with audiences of most concern. 7. title: coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine use: options and potential consequences authors: dominika a. kalkowska, steven g. f. wassilak, eric wiesen, cara c. burns, mark a. pallansch, kamran badizadegan, kimberly m. thompson abstract: due to the very low, but nonzero, paralysis risks associated with the use of oral poliovirus vaccine (opv), eradicating poliomyelitis requires ending all opv use globally. the global polio eradication initiative (gpei) coordinated cessation of sabin type 2 opv (opv2 cessation) in 2016, except for emergency outbreak response. however, as of early 2023, plans for cessation of bivalent opv (bopv, containing types 1 and 3 opv) remain undefined, and opv2 use for outbreak response continues due to ongoing transmission of type 2 polioviruses and reported type 2 cases. recent development and use of a genetically stabilized novel type 2 opv (nopv2) leads to additional potential vaccine options and increasing complexity in strategies for the polio endgame. prior applications of integrated global risk, economic, and poliovirus transmission modeling consistent with gpei strategic plans that preceded opv2 cessation explored opv cessation dynamics and the evaluation of options to support globally coordinated risk management efforts. the 2022�2026 gpei strategic plan highlighted the need for early bopv cessation planning. we review the published modeling and explore bopv cessation immunization options as of 2022, assuming that the gpei partners will not support restart of the use of any opv type in routine immunization after a globally coordinated cessation of such use. we model the potential consequences of globally coordinating bopv cessation in 2027, as anticipated in the 2022�2026 gpei strategic plan. we do not find any options for bopv cessation likely to succeed without a strategy of bopv intensification to increase population immunity prior to cessation. 8. title: worst-case scenarios: modeling uncontrolled type 2 polio transmission authors: dominika a. kalkowska, eric wiesen, steven g. f. wassilak, cara c. burns, mark a. pallansch, kamran badizadegan, kimberly m. thompson abstract: in may 2016, the global polio eradication initiative (gpei) coordinated the cessation of all use of type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (opv2), except for emergency outbreak response. since then, paralytic polio cases caused by type 2 vaccine-derived polioviruses now exceed 3,000 cases reported by 39 countries. in 2022 (as of april 25, 2023), 20 countries reported detection of cases and nine other countries reported environmental surveillance detection, but no reported cases. recent development of a genetically modified novel type 2 opv (nopv2) may help curb the generation of neurovirulent vaccine-derived strains; its use since 2021 under emergency use listing is limited to outbreak response activities. prior modeling studies showed that the expected trajectory for global type 2 viruses does not appear headed toward eradication, even with the best possible properties of nopv2 assuming current outbreak response performance. continued persistence of type 2 poliovirus transmission exposes the world to the risks of potentially high-consequence events such as the importation of virus into high-transmission areas of india or bangladesh. building on prior polio endgame modeling and assuming current national and gpei outbreak response performance, we show no probability of successfully eradicating type 2 polioviruses in the near term regardless of vaccine choice. we also demonstrate the possible worst-case scenarios could result in rapid expansion of paralytic cases and preclude the goal of permanently ending all cases of poliomyelitis in the foreseeable future. avoiding such catastrophic scenarios will depend on the development of strategies that raise population immunity to type 2 polioviruses. 9. title: a data-driven method for identifying the locations of hurricane evacuations from mobile phone location data authors: valerie washington, seth guikema, joi-lynn mondisa, aditi misra abstract: how evacuations are managed can substantially impact the risks faced by affected communities. having a better understanding of the mobility patterns of evacuees can improve the planning and management of these evacuations. although mobility patterns during evacuations have traditionally been studied through surveys, mobile phone location data can be used to capture these movements for a greater number of evacuees over a larger geographic area. several approaches have been used to identify hurricane evacuation patterns from location data; however, each approach relies on researcher judgment to first determine the areas from which evacuations occurred and then identify evacuations by determining when an individual spends a specified number of nights away from home. this approach runs the risk of detecting non-evacuation behaviors (e.g., work trips, vacations, etc.) and incorrectly labeling them as evacuations where none occurred. in this article, we developed a data-driven method to determine which areas experienced evacuations. with this approach, we inferred home locations of mobile phone users, calculated their departure times, and determined if an evacuation may have occurred by comparing the number of departures around the time of the hurricane against historical trends. as a case study, we applied this method to location data from hurricanes matthew and irma to identify areas that experienced evacuations and illustrate how this method can be used to detect changes in departure behavior leading up to and following a hurricane. we validated and examined the inferred homes for representativeness and validated observed evacuation trends against past studies. 10. title: applying the extended parallel process model to understand households� responses to tornado and earthquake risks in oklahoma authors: yueqi li, alex greer, hao-che wu abstract: oklahoma is a multihazard environment where both natural (e.g., tornadoes) and technological hazards (e.g., induced seismicity) are significant, making oklahoma a unique setting to better understand how to manage and prepare for multiple hazards. while studies have attempted to understand drivers of hazard adjustments, few have focused on the overall number of adjustments undertaken instead of individual adjustments or adjustments in a multihazard environment. to address these gaps, we employ a survey sample of 866 households in oklahoma to understand households� danger control responses (protective hazard adjustments) for tornado and earthquake risks in oklahoma. we apply the extended parallel processing model (eppm) to categorize respondents according to their relative level of perceived threat and efficacy of protective actions in predicting the number of hazard adjustments they intend to or have adopted in response to tornadoes and induced earthquakes. in line with the eppm, we found that households have the highest number of danger control responses when their perceived threat and efficacy are both high. counter to the eppm literature, we found low threat coupled with high efficacy moved some individuals toward the adoption of danger control responses in response to both tornadoes and earthquakes. when households have high efficacy, threat appraisals matter in tornado danger control responses but not in earthquake danger control responses. this eppm categorization opens new research approaches for studies of natural and technological hazards. this study also provides information for local officials and emergency managers making mitigation and preparedness investments and policies. 11. title: a statistical approach for assessing cyber risk via ordered response models authors: silvia facchinetti, silvia angela osmetti, claudia tarantola abstract: proper evaluation of the risk associated to a cyber attack is a crucial aspect for many companies. there is an increasing need to plan for and implement effective ways to address cyber security, data security, and privacy protection. estimating the risk of a successful cyber attack is an important issue, since this type of threat is proliferating and thus poses increasing danger to companies and the customers who use their services. while quantitative loss data are rarely available, it is possible to obtain a qualitative evaluation on an ordinal scale of severity of cyber attacks from experts of the sector. hence, it is natural to apply order response models for the analysis of cyber risk. in particular, we rely on cumulative link models. we explain the experts' assessment of the severity of a cyber attack as a function of a set of explanatory variables describing the characteristics of the attack under consideration. a measure of diffusion of the effects of the attacks obtained via the use of a network structure is also incorporated into the set of explanatory variables of the model. along with the description of the methodology, we present a detailed analysis of a real data set that includes information on serious cyber attacks occurred worldwide in the period 2017 2018. 12. title: flood hazard potential evaluation using decision tree state-of-the-art models authors: romulus costache, alireza arabameri, iulia costache, anca crciun, abu reza md. towfiqul islam, sani isah abba, mehebub sahana, manish pandey, tran trung tin, binh thai pham abstract: floods occur frequently in romania and throughout the world and are one of the most devastating natural disasters that impact people's lives. therefore, in order to reduce the potential damages, an accurate identification of surfaces susceptible to flood phenomena is mandatory. in this regard, the quantitative calculation of flood susceptibility has become a very popular practice in the scientific research. with the development of modern computerized methods such as geographic information system and machine learning models, and as a result of the possibility of combining them, the determination of areas susceptible to floods has become increasingly accurate, and the algorithms used are increasingly varied. some of the most used and highly accurate machine learning algorithms are the decision tree models. therefore, in the present study focusing on flood susceptibility zonation mapping in the trotus river basin, the following algorithms were applied: forest by penalizing attribute�weights of evidence (forest-pa-woe), best first decision tree�woe, alternating decision tree�woe, and logistic regression�woe. the best performant, characterized by a maximum accuracy of 0.981, proved to be forest-pa-woe, whereas in terms of flood exposure, an area of over 16.22% of the trotus basin is exposed to high and very high floods susceptibility. the performances applied models in the present work are higher than the models applied in the previous studies in the same study area. moreover, it should be noted that the accuracy of the models is similar with the accuracies of the decision tree models achieved in the studies focused on other areas across the world. therefore, we can state that the models applied in the present research can be successfully used in by the researchers in other case studies. the findings of this research may substantially map the flood risk areas and further aid watershed managers in limiting and remediating flood damage in the data-scarce regions. moreover, the results of this study can be a very useful for the hazard management and planning authorities. 13. title: an interpretable xgboost-based approach for arctic navigation risk assessment authors: shuaiyu yao, qinhao wu, qi kang, yu-wang chen, yi lu abstract: the northern sea route (nsr) makes travel between europe and asia shorter and quicker than a southern transit via the strait of malacca and suez canal. it provides greater access to arctic resources such as oil and gas. as global warming accelerates, melting arctic ice caps are likely to increase traffic in the nsr and enhance its commercial viability. due to the harsh arctic environment imposing threats to the safety of ship navigation, it is necessary to assess arctic navigation risk to maintain shipping safety. currently, most studies are focused on the conventional assessment of the risk, which lacks the validation based on actual data. in this study, actual data about arctic navigation environment and related expert judgments were used to generate a structured data set. based on the structured data set, extreme gradient boosting (xgboost) and alternative methods were used to establish models for the assessment of arctic navigation risk, which were validated using cross-validation. the results show that compared with alternative models, xgboost models have the best performance in terms of mean absolute errors and root mean squared errors. the xgboost models can learn and reproduce expert judgments and knowledge for the assessment of arctic navigation risk. feature importance (fi) and shapley additive explanations (shap) are used to further interpret the relationship between input data and predictions. the application of xgboost, fi, and shap is aimed to improve the safety of arctic shipping using advanced artificial intelligence techniques. the validated assessment enhances the quality and robustness of assessment. 14. title: risk analysis sampling methods in terrorist networks based on the banzhaf value authors: encarnaci�n algaba, andrea prieto, alejandro saavedra-nieves abstract: this article introduces the banzhaf and the banzhaf�owen values as novel measures of risk analysis of a terrorist attack, determining the most dangerous terrorists in a network. this new approach counts with the advantage of integrating at the same time the complete topology (i.e., nodes and edges) of the network and a coalitional structure on the nodes of the network. more precisely, the characteristics of the nodes (e.g., terrorists) of the network and their possible relationships (e.g., types of communication links), as well as coalitional information (e.g., level of hierarchies) independent of the network. first, for these two new measures of risk analysis, we provide and implement approximation algorithms. second, as illustration, we rank the members of the zerkani network, responsible for the attacks in paris (2015) and brussels (2016). finally, we give a comparison between the rankings established by the banzhaf and the banzhaf�owen values as measures of risk analysis. 15. title: biocidal products: opportunities in risk assessment, management, and communication authors: byung-mu lee, angela bearth, robert m. tighe, manho kim, simon tan, seok kwon abstract: in the coronavirus disease 2019 era, biocidal products are increasingly used for controlling harmful organisms, including microorganisms. however, assuring safety against adverse health effects is a critical issue from a public health standpoint. this study aimed to provide an overview of key aspects of risk assessment, management, and communication that ensure the safety of biocidal active ingredients and products. the inherent characteristics of biocidal products make them effective against pests and pathogens; however, they also possess potential toxicities. therefore, public awareness regarding both the beneficial and potential adverse effects of biocidal products needs to be increased. biocidal active ingredients and products are regulated under specific laws: the federal insecticide, fungicide, and rodenticide act for the united states; the european union (eu) biocidal products regulation for the eu; and the consumer chemic "*-/013<w��ʸʩʗ�ye]pb4hxehxe5�ojqj^jh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(h!@�5�cjojqj^jajh 2e5�cjojqj^jaj#hxehxe5�cjojqj^jajhxe5�cjojqj^jaj#hy�hy�5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj h$-�5�cjojqj^jajo(#hxehxe5�cjojqj^jaj012x�� * ��no�; , � � �&�&��gd�psgd)w�gd$?�gdto�gd�l$gd%j,gdu<�gd�"�$a$gdt4wx�� )*3��妙��s�eswgeswgehvi�h�l$5�ojqj^jo(hh9vhh9v5�ojqj^jh�l$h�l$5�ojqj^jh�l$5�ojqj^jo(hj�5�ojqjo(hiht4ojqj^jo(hxehxeojqj^jhihj�ojqj^jo(ht45�ojqj^jo(hxehxe5�ojqj^jh�>85�ojqj^jhicy5�ojqj^jh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jhj�5�ojqj^jo(34 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